The Annual Deja Vu
It must be the off-season since it’s time for the annual Mark Prior-inspired period of optimism. Yesterday, Buster Olney reported the 29-year-old is prepared to work out for scouts soon enough. Three entire Major League seasons have passed since Prior last threw a pitch in a regular season game in the majors or minors. That hasn’t stopped some from still hoping Prior will one day make the long trek back to the majors once again.
Okay, or maybe it’s just me.
Everyone knows his tale of the papyrus-thin tendons and ligaments resulting in macabre injuries, but how many have forgotten that one magical season where Prior lived up to the hype, the status, and created what now seems like myth? 2003 was Prior’s first full season in the bigs after appearing in 19 games for the Cubs in 2002. He would start 30 games, pitch 211.3 innings, allow 57 earned runs, strike out 245, and walk 50. Anytime you can take a starting pitcher’s earned runs, add his homers and walks, double it, and still have a total lower than his strikeouts, I would say he’s having a special season.
Take a look at how Prior’s 2003 matches up to Zack Greinke’s 2009 – keep in mind the league averages have fluctuated a bit, so the comparison isn’t 1:1, but stick with me:
K%
Prior 28.4%
Greinke 26.5%
BB%
Prior 5.8%
Greinke 5.6%
X/H%
Prior 33%
Greinke 32%
HR/FB
Prior 7.5%
Greinke 4.5%
Comparable by those measures. Prior’s 2.47 FIP and 3.23 tRA match up considerably well to Greinke’s 2.33 FIP and 2.81 tRA, as well. Prior pitched fewer innings and induced fewer groundballs, but being “slightly worse” than Greinke’s 2009 season is a tag most pitchers would desire.
The odds of Prior making it back to the majors are probably pretty low. I realize that. I’d just rather ignore it for a few days a year.
–
For more prospect-related talk, feel free to check out my piece on evaluating young catchers at Baseball America. A subscription is required.
3
I must admit, I still drink the Prior kool-aid at least once per season…. What a stud he was in 2003, I really thought he looked unhittable at times and would take his place amongst the games best.
To quote Seinfeld, “That’s a shame”.
If I’m a big market team, if I had any hope on Prior, I’d throw an incentive-filled contract his way.
Pretty sure that he doesnt need an incentive-filled contract as much as he needs any contract.
I thank god every day that the Twins drafted Mauer over him, wouldn’t it be something if they were on the same roster in 2010
Well his arm might have survived if he hadn’t pitched for Dusty Baker.
That’s debatable. Chances are he could’ve pitched for any number of managers with the same result.
He averaged 116.7 pitches per start after coming off the DL in 2003 (for a non-pitching injury).
We give Dusty Baker a lot of crap, but did 10 extra pitches a start for a few months vs. what another manager would allow really cause the downfall? Odds are he would’ve fallen apart for anyone.
R.J.
Nice job on the BA catcher article. Interesting point that prep catcher’s have had similar graduation-to-MLB rates as college catchers in that time period.
I hate hearing that Dusty ruined Prior and Woody. Obviously i’m cherry picking when i site guys like lincicum, nolan ryan, king felix, ubaldo jiminez, verlander, the list could go on, as young arms that totaled a ton of innings. (ryan’s 162 game average for innings pitched was 232! Before contracts got insane and managers started adhering to limited pitch counts, it wasn’t crazy to see guys pitch 10 or more complete games a year. Other than Halliday and the great Cliff Lee, who does that nowadays? and mopping up on the 03 NL Central isn’t that magical. I realize FIP and TRA are superior metrics to ERA, but imagine what Grienke’s numbers would have looked like had he pitched against the 03 Reds (DL Griffey, end of career Barry Larkin, and a Young Adam Dunn) Brewers (Richie Sexton, Geoff Jenkins) Astros (bagwell, Biggio, berkman) Cards (Pujols, Edmonds) and i don’t even care to think who was on the pirates. NL central is, was, and always will be a joke and that is why i will never take the cubs seriously, and that is why they will continue to get eliminated in the first round of the playoffs (if they can ever finish ahead of the Cards and Brewers [2009 payrolls of 132mm, 80mm and 77mm respectively)
Just read my initials. The NL Central has won a world series since your pathetic AL Central. Sure they won’t win if 4/5 of their starting rotation gets hurt. How many vaunted AL teams could cope with such losses. Then add in the year long injury struggles that Soriano and Soto went through. Losing 50 games of Aramis Ramirez didn’t help either. Just look how miserable the Mets were with all their injuries and yet the Cubs managed to finish with a winning record. The only joke in this article is you.
Speaking of Deja Vu, the owners of the Deja Vu strip club in Seattle are opening a strip club next to Safe Co. More info in the name/link
Looking after your listening has to be one of the most fundamental matters you can do. Take it from me, somebody who sufferred listening damager early on. As a result, I really like taking care hearing and whilst I do agree with the above poster and I really hope I do not get shot down for saying this, but I think it is important to take all things in moderation.