The Better Part of Valor
As of this morning, the Boston Red Sox are in third place, 6 1/2 games out of first place, with an estimated 18 percent chance of making the playoffs. The Los Angeles Dodgers are in fourth place, 8 games out of first place, with an estimated 4 percent chance of making the playoffs.
In the lead up to the trade deadline, the Red Sox laid fairly low, acquiring Jarrod Saltalamacchia and shipping out Ramon Ramirez, both minor transactions that will have little effect on how the team plays the rest of the year. The Dodgers did the opposite, engineering a trio of trades that saw them ship out Blake DeWitt and six minor league players in exchange for Ted Lilly, Octavio Dotel, Ryan Theriot, and Scott Podsednik.
The contrast in approaches couldn’t be any more striking. While Boston may not be resigned to finishing as an also-ran, they also refused to throw good money after bad, making a trade that would have, at best, pushed them from longshot to unlikely. The Dodgers, however, pushed their chips in to the middle and bet on the the team justifying the investment over the final two months of the season.
While inaction is usually looked at with scorn during deadline time, I would imagine the Dodgers will look back on their moves and wish they had exercised a little less aggressiveness.
No, they didn’t give up any sure things. Both James McDonald and Andrew Lambo have lost some sheen from their prospect status of a few years ago, and those are the two most talented players they surrendered. But the general rule with prospects is “the more, the merrier”, as a sheer quantity approach will usually result in a positive outcome or two. By giving up this much young talent, it’s likely that the Dodgers will eventually wish they had one or two of these guys back.
For a team with a one in 30 chance of playing in October, that just doesn’t seem like a wise use of resources. You could probably make a case for these deals if LA was a couple of games back and just trying to overcome one team, but they’ve got three clubs in front of them in their own division, two of whom have significant leads.
There is a time for bold action, and there’s a time to accept that it probably isn’t your year. The passive approach that the Red Sox took to the trade deadline was probably the better course. Barring a miracle, neither team will make the playoffs, but at least the Red Sox will still have their farm system mostly intact.
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Ned Colletti is a special GM.
agree with dave’s point.
as for your point bone: it’s hard to pin too much blame on ned. sure he didnt have to gut the farm system but his job is probably on the line pending a new owner anyway, and he may have had a mandate from ownership that conflicted with the best interests of the franchise.
hard to ever fully blame a gm when ownership is such a mess
It’s not the first time though, this year is tame compared to what we’ve seen in the past.
Boston will be getting Pedroia, Ellsbury, Lowell, and Varitek off the DL between now and the next 2-3 weeks.
As even Bob Ryan pointed out, that counts (to them) as acquiring new players to the lineup/roster.
Why sign players you’ll just have to demote/release when guys come off the DL?
I’m doubtful they have accepted their fate as a 3rd place team, but likely do know their odds. Had they been in 3rd due to lack of talent, instead of injuries, they may have very well went out and spent money/prospects on acquiring talent for this year.
They also just called up Ryan Kalish.
I agree, if there had been real upgrades available to the Red Sox at positions of need and a reasonable cost, the Red Sox would have made them. But, the players who were traded at their positions of need don’t seem like clear upgrades over what they already have, and the price for other players who might have been available must have been high enough that they didn’t wind up being traded.
They are one of the few AL teams that has NOT been in the market for the “again NL batting star”, who can play DH.
Ortiz or Youkillus gets injured, and the BoSox are in the market for one of the “DH/1B types” and who knows if they over-pay for it or not?
BOS has shown a willingness to throw the money around, even with this year’s “run prevention” team.
they clearly could have used a bullpen arm… but I agree that this would have made only a marginal diference
They have some bullpen arms, even traded one away, what they clearly could have used is a good relief pitcher.
I agree with most of this. Moreover, if the Red Sox DL squad comes back to help the team- they still have a solid shot at the division. If they don’t, no amount of trading will help them. I have trouble imaging anything but the most ruinous of trades could replace the production offered by Ellsbury and Pedroia. So what would be the point of a big move?
I’m still hoping the Red Sox will recover and make things interesting, but even if they do and fall a couple games short of the post-season- they made the right call on this one. Trading for more production would basically just be betting double-or-nothing that your DL guys return and mash.
Ned Colleti runs the Dodgers like NBC runs their late night talkshows.
Fire the guy who got bad ratings and go with the guy that had better ratings?
Yea, pretty sure Ned Colleti is the opposite of NBC: makes questionable moves and gets no scorn for it.
Pretty sure firing the guy who got bad ratings and going with the guy that had better ratings has caused worse ratings than ever.
Ned Colletti is an incompetent boob whose incompetent boobiness earned him a 5-year contract extension.
The trade deadline came 2-3 weeks too late for the Dodgers. Had the trade deadline been a little earlier, I could have supported these moves. The Dodgers have had a depleted bullpen the month of July. The lost Ronald Belisario, George Sherrill and the other bottom of the barrell bullpen pitchers have been nothing but gas cans. Broxton has been very good, but has had a few meltdowns where Torre used him for 40+ pitches, making him unavailable for multiple games at a time. The bullpen ace is HongZhi Guo, who Torre has to be cautious with, usually giving him a day off after using him. Kenley Jansen the minor league flame thrower recently came up and will definitely help out. The Dodgers could’ve used an arm like Dotel 2-3 weeks ago when they had a realistic shot at the playoffs. Lilly and Dotel will help the Dodgers, but unfortunately the offense has gone into the tank, helping the Dodgers lose a handful of high leverage games to both the Padres and Giants. I can’t really blame Colletti for having faith in his team, they still have a sliver hope if they can sweep the Padres this week. But due to bad timing (losing streak during high leverage games) these trades are likely to be like throwing good money at a bad investment. Too bad that Ned didn’t hold on to these tradeable players for next years deadline instead. :)
vr, Xeifrank
The Dodgers could have traded at any point prior to the deadline. Granted, they would have paid more earlier on, but if they were this committed to winning this year, they should have made moves when the wheels first started to slip, or better yet, anticipated the slippage and made the moves prior.
Of course, but as you pointed out they would’ve paid more, so that’s your deal breaker. And it is pretty hard to anticipate the kind of slippage that occurred.
MIGHT not necessarily be a terrible move getting Lilly with an emphasis on “might not.”
Sure, he’s from California, currently resides there and the Dodgers originally drafted him. You know…all that crap that MIGHT mean something to Lilly. As a free agent after this year and at 35 by the start of 2011, he’ll be looking for length over dollars (he got his big contract) and may be able to squeeze that third/fourth (!) year option out of the Dodgers (they certainly have a track record for such weirdness).
I’m just spitballin’ here but three years/$21 million with an option? He could reasonably give that back to the Dodgers in WAR Value, I would think. And if he doesn’t re-sign, he’s currently projected as a Type A. Two picks.
The piece was about stockpiling prospects, though. I get that. But there’s been a tiny leak at the gate this year at Dodger Stadium, especially lately. They still draw well but a dip has nonetheless occurred that might have worried the suits, especially if they fall too far back in the race and what that would mean to the next two months’ gate receipts.
When “divorce proceedings” and “cash on hand” are the phrases du jour in Dodger world, I think the moves were almost expected, even if a tad dumb.
I suppose it’s possible that Frank McCourt has more interest in keeping attendance high in August and September than in the long-term future of the Dodgers farm system.
The thing is, Boston tried to play it too cute. They have Mike Lowell apparently healthy and Jed Lowire back. If they were thinking, “we might contend, but most likely will not,” then should they have been sellers of Adrian Beltre down at the deadline? Was there a deal to be made with ChiSox, Twins, Detroit down the stretch that would be better than the 2 compensation picks plus a small additional likelihood of making the playoffs that keeping Beltre gained them? Are they more satisfied with Saltalamacchia than Ramos + ? that would have been available from the Twins?
The Above is a massive reach:
Even if we assume that Mike Lowell is capable of performing at the offensive levels that he did in 2009 and that Beltre will revert to his career norms over the remainder of the season; Lowell probably doesn’t represent a significant offensive upgrade over what should be expected of Beltre this season. Add to that, the fact that Mike Lowell can’t play defense worth a damn anymore and it’s more than overwhelmingly apparent that Mike Lowell in 2010, even under the best case scenario is a significant downgrade from Beltre.
The fact that the Twins made a bad trade for an average reliever is irrelevant to this discussion. Who is to say what the Twins would have given up for Beltre (or the White Sox or Tigers for that matter). Furthermore, how much more value does Ramos offer the Red Sox compared to two first round draft picks to go along with incrementally better odds to make the post season?
Finally, there’s the fact that Boston’s odds are probably significantly better than 18%. To my knowledge (correct me if I’m wrong) such projections don’t take into account the fact that Boston will see massive upgrades in the OF, 2b and the bench over the coming weeks. Sure, they’re still dogs in 2010 (there odds are probably still only around 30%) but they’re certainly close enough not to torpedo themselves. The author is correct however in stating that Boston (and the Dodgers for that matter) should not have gone all in for 2010. They’ve played exceptionally well considering the circumstances this year- but they’ve got a lot of ground to make up. Adding 10 runs or so on offense or subtracting 10 runs on pitching/defense isn’t likely going to make the difference between playing in October and staying home 2/3 of the time. Sure if Boston ends up losing to the Rays by a game in late September, you’ll hear some bitching- but it’s important to look at the reasoning behind all decisions.
In short, adding say Adam Dunn for example may have improved Boston’s odds from 30% to 35%, is that five percent worth giving up quality prospects? As for the dump Beltre for prospects and relying on Lowell- we don’t know what the trade market was for Beltre, all we do know is that replacing Beltre’s offensive and defensive value for Lowell, even under the best of circumstances would greatly diminish Boston’s odds from here on out.
I don’t see anything in JCA’s post to suggest he thinks Lowell would be an upgrade or even equivalent to Beltre. I say he’s strictly talking about a white flag trade.
I’m sure they could’ve gotten some good people for Beltre. But I didn’t expect them to try. Your point about that 18% number is a good one. Besides that, the rioting that would ensue after a white flag trade in Boston would be too distracting for the players.
Thanks Mike. I’ll trust those of you who see Lowell more as to whether he can play the field either at first or third. When I wrote the first post, he seemed to have gotten through his rehab well. I was not necessarily saying he’d play third, just noting he and Lowrie were back. If he were to play in the field, then it would be more likely that he’d play first and Youkilis would play third, with Lowrie (or Hall) available as a defensive replacement at third and Youkilis shifting back to first. Clearly a defensive downgrade, as you note, and at best a wash offensively (doubtful there, too).
I’m not anywhere near as optimistic as some posters here are about overtaking either the Yankees or the Rays. Both teams would have to cool down to a .570 winning percentage to only get to 98 wins. One game over .500 gets them to 95 wins. To get to 98 wins, the Red Sox, fully healthy or not, would have to go something like 38-18 down the stretch to get into the mix. I think trading Beltre for quality prospects, or quality prospects plus a middle reliever, would have decreased their chances of pulling off the unlikely, but not all the way from long shot to no shot. They’d still have very good offense and pitching, and the D would only have been weakened in the infiled corners. Since the Sox are overwhelmingly likely to be heading to a respectable 3d, I would have prefered looking for extra talent (BTW – we can’t determine who the Twins or others would have made available, but Ramos at least was an obvious trade target, and some of the Dunn names I’d guess were available in other trades).
Mike Lowell is anything but healthy. He needed a cortisone shot just to get through a few days on a minor league rehab assignment. If he was healthy, another team would want him enough to trade for him, but everyone knows he’s in no shape to play the field regularly.
Sure, that’s one of the two major follies in JCA’s post.
But it’s worth pointing out that even if Lowell was healthy at this point, he’s probably a pretty massive downgrade. His mobility is never coming back. He’s an ok option for a team that needs a platoon partner for a left handed bat at first and DH. I wouldn’t want to see him at 3b anytime soon.
The Red Sox, the White Sox, the Twins or any team that want’s to make a push for October shouldn’t be starting the guy. It’s been a great career but it’ll all but over.
The only way Boston would trade Beltre in order to play Lowell is if they were 10 games out and playing completely for next year.
The principal of not giving away the future for a questionable shot at making
the playoffs is something I agree with you on. But I think you chose a very poor example to make your point.
The Dodgers acquired 4 major league players, all of whom have definite value, and the best player they gave up was James McDonald? I think they made out like bandits.
Correct me if I’m wrong, but I seem to recall that prior to his promotion to the majors James McDonald was NOT a highly rated prospect, he took people by surprise. His career has been mediocre and you yourself admit he’s nothing special at this point.
I’m constantly amazed at the way prospects who’ve never done anything are overvalued while battle-tested veterans are taken for granted.
DeWitt is the best player that the Dodgers gave up. A serviceable infielder under cost control.
23yrs old doesn’t know what he is doing
Blake DeWitt: 1.2WAR
30yrs old “battle-tested”
Ryan Theriot -0.2WAR
Crap, DeWitt is 24 soon to be 25.
My bad, but you get the point.
Yes…exactly what you said. The myths of “veteran leadership”.
Blake Dewitt is in his 3 big league season and has over 750 PA in the majors, over half of which were in 2008. To my way of thinking, that removes him from the “prospect” category and puts him into the “young developing major leaguer” category. There is a difference you know.
“I’m constantly amazed at the way prospects who’ve never done anything are overvalued while battle-tested veterans are taken for granted.” – Dayton Moore, explaining why there’s just no room for Alex Gordon and Kila Ka’aihue because we have to make room for ‘battle-tested veterans’ like Mike Jacobs…Rick Ankiel…Jose Guillen’s corpse…
With all this talk of “major league players” and “battle tested veterans”, you would think the Dodgers added a Cliff Lee or an Adam Dunn. Granted, Lilly is a nice addition and Dotel will help stablilize the pen, but Scotty Pods, for all his ‘battle-testedness’ provides little but a 4th or 5th OF, and Theriot doesn’t give them anything beyond what they could have gotten from a (younger, cheaper) Blake DeWitt.
Scott Podsnick may only be a 4th or 5th outfielder as you say, but is that a bad thing? A lot of clubs would be ecstatic to have a fast guy on the bench who can bat .300 and steal a lot of bases. What does a guy have to do to earn any respect around here?
And while you’re right about Theriot not being as valuable as Dewitt, the Dodgers could not have gotten Lilly without giving up Dewitt, so it;s a moot point. Oh and by the way, all the “battle tested veteran” Lilly did tonite was pitch 7 innings against the division leading Padres and allow only 2 baserunners.
I still feel the Dodgers did a very good job of acquiring valuable veteran players who are well worth the young players they gave up to get them.
Your reference to Dayton Moore’s record with the Royals can easily be countered by Brian Sabean’s record with the Giants, who currently have the 2nd best record in the National League, largely thanks to the acquisition of players like Uribe, Huff, Sanchez, Molina, Torres, and Burrell, plus the maturation of pitchers like Sanchez and Cain. Not to mention that battle-tested veteran lefty, Barry Zito!
Prior to 2009, James McDonald was LA’s number 2 prospect (according to Baseball America). That off-season, BA rated him the number 56 prospect in all of baseball. Since then, he’s performed decently in AAA and struggled a little in the majors. Giving up on players like him at this point can be a huge mistake. Yes, his star has dimmed, but if he hadn’t pitched in the majors in 09 he probably would have improved and become a top 50 prospect.
Lambo was a pretty highly rated prospect who soured after getting in trouble with Drug of abuse problem, (suspected to be weed). If you don’t think McDonald and Lambo for Dotel isn’t an overpay, then you expect Dotel to be very good this year, and to accept the mutual option he has next year. If not, then the potential upside that deal sends to the Bucs seems like a lot for a middle reliever.
Uh… while I think it is “unlikely,” I wouldn’t call 18% a “miracle.” Especially on a team that is finally getting healthy.
What, no mention of the savvy acquisition of Jack Hannahan? .814 OPS in AAA!!!
I just snarfed my soup!