He’s not Greinke but he projects to be an all star. Projections are not guarantees, they are projections of potential upside. That value isn’t attributed to him by posters here, it’s attributed to him by scouts who have studied him extensively. And even if he never gets better than he is right now in the majors, you still have a better pitcher than Jackson under club control for way, way longer. And Ian Kennedy is nothing special, sorry.

Oh no Arizona is without Garland whatever shall we do? You know who’s a much better pitcher than Jon Garland right now, this second? Max Scherzer. The thing about Jon Garland is that he kind of sucks. The answer to losing Jon Garland is not to trade your best pitching prospect for two average to below average pitchers.

This is an awful return for them. They did not get decent value in return, I would propose that you are greatly undervaluing Max Scherzer if you think so.

If Scherzer could increase his IP/G by 1 IP and be able to maintain it for a few seasons of 200+IP, then he would certainly make the big step up to “frontline pitcher”. Whether he’s a #1 or #2 or #3 depends on the other pitchers on his team (obviously).

If he could get up to 6.5 or so IP/G, and maintain his K-Rate, by either lowering his pitch counts, or by keeping his early game effectiveness longer throughout the game (i.e., pitching effectively from the 90-115 pitch area), he’d be “right there”.

There is no debating the quality of his “stuff”. There are times you watch Scherzer and think “How does this guy NOT threaten a shutout every time out?”, but then there just seems to be innings that he “loses it” and a viewer cannot figure out why.

I was mainly curious as to whether previous pitchers of a similar type (similar WHIP and K-Rate) have increased their IP/G successfully while keeping their “effectiveness stats” (HR/G, K/IP, K/BB, etc) stats in line.

It certainly is possible, I was just wondering how “probable” it is (based on past pitchers with a similar profile). I don;t think he’s a “lock” to be a frontline pitcher, but the potential certainly is there.

I would have thought that having him be around Haren and Webb would have been ideal for his development … but he can certainly learn a lot from another hard throwing RHP with a great K-Rate and high velocity FB in Verlander. One of the big differences is V has some of the most economical (“free and easy” in common language) deliveries around. He throws mid 90s in what seems to be an “effortless” fashion … AND throw 200IP/season.

Actually Verlander is not a bad comparison for Scherzer, as V had slightly high WHIP along with a high K-Rate. V had somewhat of a breakout year in 09, with lowering his WHIP by a couple of “decimal points” (1.3 or 1.4 to 1.175), which is significant … all the while posting the best K-Rate of his career (10.1 k/9).

My overall feeling with AZ is that they needed 2 SP’s rather than 1 SP and a LHR in a bullpen that already has 3 LHR’s.

I still think that all 3 teams have the potential for this trade to work out well for them, with DET being in an awkward position given their local economics and ome of the big contracts they cannot get out of this year (Willis & Bonderman are killing them, followed by Magglio).

Always an interesting discussion trying to figure out how young, developing pitchers will progress. I think EJack is going to do well in the NL. He’ll also have 100-120 Abs against oppossing pitchers versus a DH. That *could be the equivalent* over a full season of 30ish “gimmee innings” (if it really translates like that).

Anyways, I wasn’t really trying to get into the “ace” discussion – I generally tend to err on the side of caution on these things, because the truth is simple probability tells us most players don’t develop into an ace. I was just trying to give an opinion on how easy efficiency is to improve and how important it is.

Scherzer’s K/9, to me, suggests he has ace potential. Not many guys have that kind of strikeout stuff. Given that he’s already posted a very solid season that makes him a valuable piece to have, and he has the potential to get better, I see him as a pretty valuable trade asset – one much, much more valuable than he’d be as a reliever. Reliever’s simply do not pitch eough innings. So…in the end, I think we’re mostly discussing different things.

Just for the record, for his career, Scherzer is at 17.7 pitches per inning. A 1 pitch per inning improvement would put him at ~100 pitches per 6 innings…

[1] Scherzer’s pitch counts will always be high.
[2] Scherzer is NOT ‘Ace’ material.

First thing, you described situations where he *could* reduce his PC by 1-2 pitches/inning and THEN stated a difference of 15-20 pitches.

He regularly pitches between 5 and 6 IP a game. So, he’d need to reduce his pitches/IP by 3-4 pitches per inning to reach the top end of the 15-20 pitch difference. If he reduces his pitch count by 15-20 by the end of the 5th inning, Max will be well on his way. I just don;t typically see pitchers make that dramatic of change. I think we both agree he needs to hit 100 PC around the end of the 6th, not the start/middle of the 5th.

Also, Max is “league average” in IP/G in a discussion that is talking about Max being an ‘Ace’. If someone would say “Max is going to be a “league average pitcher” or even a “solid #3″, I would agree whole-heartedly. But, the comment I was discussing was that Scherzer had “Ace written all over him”.

I would say that he would need to BOTH lower his WHIP AND decrease his pitch counts significantly (i.e., increase his IP/Start) if he were to develop into an Ace. While that sounds easy enough, my experience indicates to me that is much more difficult than it appears.

He also hasn’t pitched over 200 IP in any season, with 170 IP being his career best, with seasons of 50 and 105 in MiLB. I don;t think ANY of us have any real ideas to his durability or ability to put in 200 IP seasons.

I think you make Max a closer (eventually), and let him come in and throw his balls off for 1 IP, and the high K-Rate becomes a tremendous plus, and not just a really good thing that leads to a lot of pitches. Plus, he’s got different colored eyes and is nicknamed ‘The Terminator’ and it’s marketing at its easiest.

I wish the guy the best, and I think at some point he *may* have a season like Wainwright had this year, where he fills in for the team’s ace temporarily and does well … but we have no idea if there’s the “workhorse” in him that the Ace position requires. It is not fair to compare him to Webb and Haren b/c there’s a difference between ‘Ace’ and ‘Cy Young Candidate’ … but “Ace” is a rather select group.

It’s not that Scherzer is guaranteed to be an ace – it’s that he’s already had a full season of being a good starting pitcher, and that K/9 gives him a ton of upside. Given how cheap he is, how young he is, and how long he’s under team control, of course people expect a bigger return on him. Maybe he improves, maybe he doesn’t – but if he doesn’t, as long as he stays healthy, he’s already good….

If that claim is true, and you still don’t think a 1-2 pitch per inning improvement is a big deal, then I think the next reasonable conclusion is that “efficiency” is really just not that important….

Also, as someone else pointed out, Scherzer is pretty much league average when it comes to IP per start…

You are talking as if the DBacks traded away the next Grienke or something, and that EVERY team in the league views Scherz as an ‘Ace’. Scherzer might have been the only piece the other teams wanted (that AZ was wiling to trade) in order to get two SPs.

AZ is without Garland and next year their rotation looks like: Haren, Webb, Jackson, Kennedy, and Petit/Augustein/Buckner/Whoever.

They traded Schelreth who is currently behind ALL 3 LHPs in their bullpen(Schoenweiss, Zavada, and Slaten). If Schelreth was “ready to close”, AZ would have featured him last year when Qualls got injured.

Seriously, people are talking of Scherzer as if he is guaranteed to be an “Ace” and they are talking of Schlereth as if he’s going to be a great closer. I’m asking why?

People are being ridiculed for making declarative statements without evidence, and I see the “Scherzer as Ace” and “Sclereth as Closer” as being comments of the same mold. Show me some other examples of high WHIP and high K pitchers that have struggled to get through the 6th early in their career and have went on to become an Ace of a staff (I’m open to changing my view). Show me another HIGH walk MiLB hard thrower that has went on to be a solid closer in MLB.

I like both guys a lot and hear lots of good things about both Max and Dan and I root for their success (both are reputed to be great guys and outstanding teammates), but I don’t see the value being attributed to them by some posters.

I am NOT saying that AZ *should* have traded Scherzer only that they “got decent value in return”. At this point they needed 2 SP’s more than they needed Scherzer and another LHR (and Parker looks to be further from MLB than he was as a new draftee). With Webb returning, they essentially have the same team as 07, only with Allen/Whitesell replacing Tracy and Parra platooning some more … With JU10 and MR27 being better now than they were then.