Comments on: The Case For Dustin Ackley http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-case-for-dustin-ackley/ Daily baseball statistical analysis and commentary Sun, 12 Feb 2012 23:01:40 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: Dwilson http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-case-for-dustin-ackley/#comment-825215 Dwilson Fri, 17 Jun 2011 18:36:11 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=5398#comment-825215 How very relevant. How very relevant.

]]> By: Longgandhi http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-case-for-dustin-ackley/#comment-80153 Longgandhi Thu, 11 Jun 2009 07:40:46 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=5398#comment-80153 I also think there're some oranges in with the apples here. Players like Delmon Young, Felix Hernandez, Dwight Gooden, etc were not college players. With non-college players there are additional risks that are not germaine to the Ackley vs Strasburg debate. Roger Clemens was not the top pitcher drafted the year he was chosen; Tim Belcher was. But back then scouting the draft was far more art than science than it is today. Given the choice between assuming the risk of drafting the next Clemens or drafting the next Erstad, is picking the next Erstad really the safer or smarter choice? I also think there’re some oranges in with the apples here. Players like Delmon Young, Felix Hernandez, Dwight Gooden, etc were not college players. With non-college players there are additional risks that are not germaine to the Ackley vs Strasburg debate.

Roger Clemens was not the top pitcher drafted the year he was chosen; Tim Belcher was. But back then scouting the draft was far more art than science than it is today. Given the choice between assuming the risk of drafting the next Clemens or drafting the next Erstad, is picking the next Erstad really the safer or smarter choice?

]]> By: Longgandhi http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-case-for-dustin-ackley/#comment-80149 Longgandhi Thu, 11 Jun 2009 07:03:03 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=5398#comment-80149 Other "can't miss" college hitters you guys didn't mention: Khalil Greene - .470/.577/.877, 1st round Chris Burke - .435/.562/.815, 1st round John-Ford Griffin - .450/.555/.797, 1st round Ken Harvey - .478/.584/.862, 5th round Sawyer Carroll - .419/.536/.782, 3rd round Kellen Kulbacki - .464/.616/.943, 1st round Ryan Garko - .402/.502/.703, 3rd round Michael Aubrey - .420/.534/.733, 1st round That's obviously not all of the guys who put up purty numbers against college pitching, but it's enough (all in the last decade) to know that Dustin Ackley is no sure thing to become even Darin Erstad. Other “can’t miss” college hitters you guys didn’t mention:

Khalil Greene – .470/.577/.877, 1st round
Chris Burke – .435/.562/.815, 1st round
John-Ford Griffin – .450/.555/.797, 1st round
Ken Harvey – .478/.584/.862, 5th round
Sawyer Carroll – .419/.536/.782, 3rd round
Kellen Kulbacki – .464/.616/.943, 1st round
Ryan Garko – .402/.502/.703, 3rd round
Michael Aubrey – .420/.534/.733, 1st round

That’s obviously not all of the guys who put up purty numbers against college pitching, but it’s enough (all in the last decade) to know that Dustin Ackley is no sure thing to become even Darin Erstad.

]]> By: Michael http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-case-for-dustin-ackley/#comment-79950 Michael Tue, 09 Jun 2009 21:49:07 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=5398#comment-79950 Exactly. And don't forget how the Texans also passed up Vince Young, who delivered a championship to the homestate Longhorns in one of the most exciting National Championship games in recent memory and then went on to have a sensational rookie year with the Titans. One year after the draft he looked like he should have been the Texans' choice at #1, and now he's a total headcase. Meanwhile Mario Williams has established himself as one of the most feared pass rushers in the league and most people would now agree the Texans had it right all along. Exactly. And don’t forget how the Texans also passed up Vince Young, who delivered a championship to the homestate Longhorns in one of the most exciting National Championship games in recent memory and then went on to have a sensational rookie year with the Titans. One year after the draft he looked like he should have been the Texans’ choice at #1, and now he’s a total headcase. Meanwhile Mario Williams has established himself as one of the most feared pass rushers in the league and most people would now agree the Texans had it right all along.

]]> By: seattlecougar http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-case-for-dustin-ackley/#comment-79937 seattlecougar Tue, 09 Jun 2009 20:30:25 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=5398#comment-79937 There's also something to be said for the sheer drawing power of having Strasburg take the hill for you every 5 games. The Nationals desperately need a face for their franchise. Even if Strasburg and Ackley's projections were dead even, Strasburg still would be worth paying more to because he would put more butts in the seats. Even if he doesn't pan out to be the greatest thing since sliced bread, he'll give fans in Washington something to be excited about. Their ownership and management know this, and, talent aside, that's why they're taking him at #1. There’s also something to be said for the sheer drawing power of having Strasburg take the hill for you every 5 games. The Nationals desperately need a face for their franchise. Even if Strasburg and Ackley’s projections were dead even, Strasburg still would be worth paying more to because he would put more butts in the seats.

Even if he doesn’t pan out to be the greatest thing since sliced bread, he’ll give fans in Washington something to be excited about. Their ownership and management know this, and, talent aside, that’s why they’re taking him at #1.

]]> By: obsessivegiantscompulsive http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-case-for-dustin-ackley/#comment-79931 obsessivegiantscompulsive Tue, 09 Jun 2009 20:06:50 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=5398#comment-79931 WAR only refers to comparison with a replacement level player. The good point you make here (and others above) is regarding, as noted, the market scarcity for equivalent players. WAR does not refer to this scarcity, this opportunity cost. The point is that it is relatively hard to find a pitcher with Strasburg's potential WAR, while relatively easy to find a hitter equivalent to Ackley on the free agent market. That makes pitchers more valuable in that way. And that is true, also, for the top players at any position, hence why Teixeira got such a big contract too this past off-season. And hence why one should pick Strasburg on that chance he could be that good, even though on an overall basis, Ackley would be more of a sure thing. Here's where perhaps a team might look at their situation and see what they really need more of. Since the Nats need everything, and particularly a marquee name, they must go for Strasburg. Perhaps a team with great pitching already (like the Giants) might do this bold move and select Ackley instead. Very thought provoking article, enjoyed it greatly, good discussions/comments. WAR only refers to comparison with a replacement level player.

The good point you make here (and others above) is regarding, as noted, the market scarcity for equivalent players. WAR does not refer to this scarcity, this opportunity cost.

The point is that it is relatively hard to find a pitcher with Strasburg’s potential WAR, while relatively easy to find a hitter equivalent to Ackley on the free agent market. That makes pitchers more valuable in that way. And that is true, also, for the top players at any position, hence why Teixeira got such a big contract too this past off-season. And hence why one should pick Strasburg on that chance he could be that good, even though on an overall basis, Ackley would be more of a sure thing.

Here’s where perhaps a team might look at their situation and see what they really need more of. Since the Nats need everything, and particularly a marquee name, they must go for Strasburg. Perhaps a team with great pitching already (like the Giants) might do this bold move and select Ackley instead.

Very thought provoking article, enjoyed it greatly, good discussions/comments.

]]> By: Fresh Hops http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-case-for-dustin-ackley/#comment-79929 Fresh Hops Tue, 09 Jun 2009 20:03:35 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=5398#comment-79929 Smoak was .383/.505/.757 Ackley is a hell of a bat, but with college cases, it's important to look at what Scouts are saying as well as what the numbers are saying. (And these numbers come from so many environments, in small samples, so they don't say very much in a comparison.) Here's what I hear scouts say: Ackley doesn't have Tex or Smoak power potential because he's a little small for that. He's a good base runner and fast, which he should maintain because he's not huge. He should be able to play OF, but we haven't seen it yet. He's a great contact hitter with wonderful bat speed. Perfect world comp: Nick Markakis. Smoak was .383/.505/.757

Ackley is a hell of a bat, but with college cases, it’s important to look at what Scouts are saying as well as what the numbers are saying. (And these numbers come from so many environments, in small samples, so they don’t say very much in a comparison.)

Here’s what I hear scouts say: Ackley doesn’t have Tex or Smoak power potential because he’s a little small for that. He’s a good base runner and fast, which he should maintain because he’s not huge. He should be able to play OF, but we haven’t seen it yet. He’s a great contact hitter with wonderful bat speed. Perfect world comp: Nick Markakis.

]]> By: Matt Harms http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-case-for-dustin-ackley/#comment-79928 Matt Harms Tue, 09 Jun 2009 20:02:51 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=5398#comment-79928 Yeah, WAR is position specific based on the replacement level for that position. That's why so many people are arguing over what position he'll be, as a CF with his bat is much more different than a 1B with his bat. Yeah, WAR is position specific based on the replacement level for that position. That’s why so many people are arguing over what position he’ll be, as a CF with his bat is much more different than a 1B with his bat.

]]> By: Matt Harms http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-case-for-dustin-ackley/#comment-79927 Matt Harms Tue, 09 Jun 2009 19:59:27 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=5398#comment-79927 Do you work for Boras? That's been his chief argument: essentially, don't punish a kid for being from the middle of maryland instead of from japan. Do you work for Boras? That’s been his chief argument: essentially, don’t punish a kid for being from the middle of maryland instead of from japan.

]]> By: obsessivegiantscompulsive http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-case-for-dustin-ackley/#comment-79926 obsessivegiantscompulsive Tue, 09 Jun 2009 19:57:20 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=5398#comment-79926 Nice analysis. My one concern here would be that each player's SLG in college will not be comparable to their MLB results. Posey, despite all his homers in college, is not expected to be much more than a 15-20 HR hitter when he makes the majors. Longoria and Teixeira both had less in college than Posey but were expected to be big boppers in the majors (which Teixeira has done, and Longoria is doing now). So a junior's power performance is not always a good indicator of how well they will do in the majors, power-wise. How would you account for this? Nice analysis.

My one concern here would be that each player’s SLG in college will not be comparable to their MLB results. Posey, despite all his homers in college, is not expected to be much more than a 15-20 HR hitter when he makes the majors. Longoria and Teixeira both had less in college than Posey but were expected to be big boppers in the majors (which Teixeira has done, and Longoria is doing now). So a junior’s power performance is not always a good indicator of how well they will do in the majors, power-wise.

How would you account for this?

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