Comments on: The Coco Crisp Trade http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-coco-crisp-trade/ Daily baseball statistical analysis and commentary Sun, 12 Feb 2012 19:52:58 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: LB http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-coco-crisp-trade/#comment-63260 LB Wed, 18 Feb 2009 06:56:19 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-coco-crisp-trade/#comment-63260 Did you actually read the article adam? Dave gives the edge in this trade to the Royals, the team acquiring Coco. Did you actually read the article adam? Dave gives the edge in this trade to the Royals, the team acquiring Coco.

]]> By: Adam http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-coco-crisp-trade/#comment-63160 Adam Tue, 17 Feb 2009 11:52:49 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-coco-crisp-trade/#comment-63160 OK, this right here is a prime example of where sabermetrics and moneyball have replaced simple common sense. This is ridiculous that a 6-8th inning RP gets this much respect. Crisp is a player that has had excellent years and years of injury and platooning in a deep outfield. He has a good chance to contribute very well to the royals and have a real defensives and offensive impacts on an otherwise lethargic team. He gets to go out there everyday while the other guy wouldn't figure much in many games. The real question the royals fans should ask themselves is what their lineup would look like without Crisp, not what their bullpen would look like. What good is a solid setup man when your team would lose 90 games anyway because the everyday players all sucked. This was a steal for the royals, the Red Sox had been unwilling to trade Crisp for a while because they couldn't get any good offers, I think they finally just took the first one that at least gave them something they could use because paying 5.75 million for someone that'd have to compete to be the 4th OF is quite a lot. Crisp will have a great season and be traded to a contender for much better players than Ram-Ram before the trading deadline. OK, this right here is a prime example of where sabermetrics and moneyball have replaced simple common sense. This is ridiculous that a 6-8th inning RP gets this much respect. Crisp is a player that has had excellent years and years of injury and platooning in a deep outfield. He has a good chance to contribute very well to the royals and have a real defensives and offensive impacts on an otherwise lethargic team. He gets to go out there everyday while the other guy wouldn’t figure much in many games. The real question the royals fans should ask themselves is what their lineup would look like without Crisp, not what their bullpen would look like. What good is a solid setup man when your team would lose 90 games anyway because the everyday players all sucked. This was a steal for the royals, the Red Sox had been unwilling to trade Crisp for a while because they couldn’t get any good offers, I think they finally just took the first one that at least gave them something they could use because paying 5.75 million for someone that’d have to compete to be the 4th OF is quite a lot. Crisp will have a great season and be traded to a contender for much better players than Ram-Ram before the trading deadline.

]]> By: Greg http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-coco-crisp-trade/#comment-52809 Greg Thu, 20 Nov 2008 14:46:55 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-coco-crisp-trade/#comment-52809 I agree with Eric's assessment regarding Crisp's D. Having watched a lot of Sox games the past few years, he was pretty incredible in '07 and significantly less so this past year. However, that could largely be a function of regular playing time. You have to wonder if sporadic opportunities to play CF wore on his ability to read fly balls. If so, the Royals can certainly have more hope that they'll be getting '07 Crisp so long as they give him the every day CF job. I agree with Eric’s assessment regarding Crisp’s D. Having watched a lot of Sox games the past few years, he was pretty incredible in ’07 and significantly less so this past year. However, that could largely be a function of regular playing time. You have to wonder if sporadic opportunities to play CF wore on his ability to read fly balls. If so, the Royals can certainly have more hope that they’ll be getting ’07 Crisp so long as they give him the every day CF job.

]]> By: Matt http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-coco-crisp-trade/#comment-52756 Matt Thu, 20 Nov 2008 06:09:03 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-coco-crisp-trade/#comment-52756 Greg - I'm not sure you have a "far better coaching staff" than the Royals. The Red Sox have far better players. That being said it seems that the Royals pitching coach has done a fairly decent job of turning below average to average pitchers into above average pitchers over the last 2 years. See Gil Meche, Greinke, Ramom Ramirez, Horacio Ramirez, Robinson Tejeda and is working on Kyle Davies. That was just my little bone to pick with a homer. All in all I think the Red Sox will be pretty happy with Ram-Ram. Seems to get a lot of ground balls and will get his Ks with his nice change. He WILL struggle with his control at times, but I suspect he will still have an ERA under 3.00 with a K an inning. Greg – I’m not sure you have a “far better coaching staff” than the Royals. The Red Sox have far better players. That being said it seems that the Royals pitching coach has done a fairly decent job of turning below average to average pitchers into above average pitchers over the last 2 years. See Gil Meche, Greinke, Ramom Ramirez, Horacio Ramirez, Robinson Tejeda and is working on Kyle Davies. That was just my little bone to pick with a homer.

All in all I think the Red Sox will be pretty happy with Ram-Ram. Seems to get a lot of ground balls and will get his Ks with his nice change. He WILL struggle with his control at times, but I suspect he will still have an ERA under 3.00 with a K an inning.

]]> By: DanDuke http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-coco-crisp-trade/#comment-52713 DanDuke Thu, 20 Nov 2008 00:16:32 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-coco-crisp-trade/#comment-52713 One other thing I noticed - why is Ramirez measured relative to replacement, while Coco is measured relative to average and then given a bump to adjust for replacement level? One other thing I noticed – why is Ramirez measured relative to replacement, while Coco is measured relative to average and then given a bump to adjust for replacement level?

]]> By: Eric M. Van http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-coco-crisp-trade/#comment-52702 Eric M. Van Wed, 19 Nov 2008 23:04:50 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-coco-crisp-trade/#comment-52702 Just a word on Coco's Plus / Minus ratings -- those were not random variation, as each year the subjective impression matched the numbers. One year of just about the best CF play I've ever seen in a sandwich between two slightly below average ones. It was all about the jumps: in 2007 he got incredible reads while last year it seemed like he was breaking the wrong way half the time. One possibility is that the jumps he got in 2007 were the real product of a newly learned skill, one which at last put his CF numbers in the ballpark you'd expect from his tremendous numbers in LF. And that last year's lack of regular PT prevented him from ever getting in the same sort of groove. If that's so, he has a chance to be much better than the +5 runs you estimate or the +4 I get from my projection system. Oh, and a major quibble that tilts your entire analysis: that OBP and SA in Fenway is -7 runs, not -10, and Coco's averaged +5 runs on the bases the last two years (including SB). So you're off by about 8 runs on his offensive value. Just a word on Coco’s Plus / Minus ratings — those were not random variation, as each year the subjective impression matched the numbers. One year of just about the best CF play I’ve ever seen in a sandwich between two slightly below average ones. It was all about the jumps: in 2007 he got incredible reads while last year it seemed like he was breaking the wrong way half the time.

One possibility is that the jumps he got in 2007 were the real product of a newly learned skill, one which at last put his CF numbers in the ballpark you’d expect from his tremendous numbers in LF. And that last year’s lack of regular PT prevented him from ever getting in the same sort of groove. If that’s so, he has a chance to be much better than the +5 runs you estimate or the +4 I get from my projection system.

Oh, and a major quibble that tilts your entire analysis: that OBP and SA in Fenway is -7 runs, not -10, and Coco’s averaged +5 runs on the bases the last two years (including SB). So you’re off by about 8 runs on his offensive value.

]]> By: DanDuke http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-coco-crisp-trade/#comment-52695 DanDuke Wed, 19 Nov 2008 22:43:23 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-coco-crisp-trade/#comment-52695 I liked the comments from mymybig - if one takes salary into account, you could make a coherent case for Ramirez having more value than Crisp. Better bang for the buck. Plus, you have him for four year as opposed to one. It works well for both teams - Gathright is an atrocious hitter. Now the Royals have a surplus of OF (DeJesus, Crisp, Teahen, Guillen) and need a 2B. That Teahen to the North Side rumor should pick up steam. I liked the comments from mymybig – if one takes salary into account, you could make a coherent case for Ramirez having more value than Crisp. Better bang for the buck. Plus, you have him for four year as opposed to one. It works well for both teams – Gathright is an atrocious hitter.

Now the Royals have a surplus of OF (DeJesus, Crisp, Teahen, Guillen) and need a 2B. That Teahen to the North Side rumor should pick up steam.

]]> By: Dan http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-coco-crisp-trade/#comment-52694 Dan Wed, 19 Nov 2008 22:35:52 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-coco-crisp-trade/#comment-52694 Have you looked at Ramirez numbers against righties. This may be why they got him. A little mop up work and a righty specialist. Have you looked at Ramirez numbers against righties. This may be why they got him. A little mop up work and a righty specialist.

]]> By: DanDuke http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-coco-crisp-trade/#comment-52693 DanDuke Wed, 19 Nov 2008 22:34:12 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-coco-crisp-trade/#comment-52693 Dave, I am attempting to do my own version of the off-season plans you proposed at USSM for the M's. I am piecing things together little by little. I am wondering if you could answer a few questions so that I can expedite the process: *How many wins would a team of 25 replacement level players have? Without knowing this it's difficult for me to put my wins above replacement calculations into something meaningful. *What sources should I consider for defense? I was planning to use some combination of PMR and ZR as published at Beyond the Box Score. What did you use? *What are the offensive and defensive position adjustments as far as wins above replacement? *What is your rationale for tacking on +20 runs for "replacement" to Coco Crisp's runs added/prevented? *I'm projecting total IP for pitchers at about 1480, but am finding projecting the total PA for hitters more problematic - obviously a better hitting team will have more PA. What did you do about this? *Is there a better statistic than RC/27 to use to project hitting wins? *Did you account for baserunning at all or fielder's arm strength/accuracy? If not I will look into it myself. Feel free to answer all or none of these :-P Thanks, Dan Dave,

I am attempting to do my own version of the off-season plans you proposed at USSM for the M’s. I am piecing things together little by little. I am wondering if you could answer a few questions so that I can expedite the process:

*How many wins would a team of 25 replacement level players have? Without knowing this it’s difficult for me to put my wins above replacement calculations into something meaningful.
*What sources should I consider for defense? I was planning to use some combination of PMR and ZR as published at Beyond the Box Score. What did you use?
*What are the offensive and defensive position adjustments as far as wins above replacement?
*What is your rationale for tacking on +20 runs for “replacement” to Coco Crisp’s runs added/prevented?
*I’m projecting total IP for pitchers at about 1480, but am finding projecting the total PA for hitters more problematic – obviously a better hitting team will have more PA. What did you do about this?
*Is there a better statistic than RC/27 to use to project hitting wins?
*Did you account for baserunning at all or fielder’s arm strength/accuracy? If not I will look into it myself.

Feel free to answer all or none of these :-P

Thanks,
Dan

]]> By: Mike http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-coco-crisp-trade/#comment-52691 Mike Wed, 19 Nov 2008 22:09:22 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-coco-crisp-trade/#comment-52691 Don't you think that you're looking into these stats a little too much? Players in Boston and everywhere else are judged on their results, not VORP, BB%, K%, HR/FB%. The only thing I'd be concerned about for Crisp is if he gets on base, scores runs, and plays great center field like he did in Boston. With Ramirez, we're looking for him to get ground balls when he needs them and not allow homeruns with men on base. I think you're looking into all of this a little bit much. Don’t you think that you’re looking into these stats a little too much? Players in Boston and everywhere else are judged on their results, not VORP, BB%, K%, HR/FB%. The only thing I’d be concerned about for Crisp is if he gets on base, scores runs, and plays great center field like he did in Boston. With Ramirez, we’re looking for him to get ground balls when he needs them and not allow homeruns with men on base. I think you’re looking into all of this a little bit much.

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