The A’s right now have the following pitchers who look like their top bullpen options:

Joey Devine (1.97 FIP in 2008, injured in 2009, cost one somewhat-discounted season of Mark Kotsay)
Brad Ziegler (3.15 FIP in 2009, cost nothing)
Mike Wuertz (2.37 FIP in 2009, cost two organizational players, Justin Sellers and Richie Robnett)
Andrew Bailey (2.56 FIP in 2009, cost a 6th round pick)
Brad Kilby (3.03 AAA FIP in 2009, 2.21 MLB FIP, cost a 29th round pick)
Jerry Blevins (3.01 FIP in 2009, cost half a season, slightly discounted, of Jason Kendall)
Craig Breslow (3.77 FIP in 2009, cost nothing)

Combined 2010 estimated cost: $5M

They also moved a decent relief pitcher, Jeff Gray as the primary value in a package to acquire Jake Fox. He cost another very late draft pick.

OK relievers are easy to acquire on the open market, but what people tend to miss is that GOOD relievers are easy to acquire late in the draft, with picks that otherwise would hardly ever pan out into any kind of MLB value. Most 29th round picks are strictly to fill out minor league rosters with decent, if overage, talent so that the legit prospects don’t feel pressure to overperform.

Just curious- does the post-season factor into these valuations?

No, the post-season and world series championships are meaningless due to their small sample size and increased randomness.

Yes, I’m being sarcastic. But, many at FG are not when they imply similar statements.

I am willing to wait and see what happens when the rubber meets the road, and see how Aardsma fares down the stretch when the division is on the line.

I’m not wishing any ill will on Aardsma, I’m just saying he hasn’t pitched in situations as important as the closers he’s being compared to, nor has he had more than one good season.

I just find it weird that someone would point to Aardsma as an example, when most are talking about established closers that have pitched in seriously important games.

Not surprisingly, given the membership of FG, but the fans project Aardsma having MUCH better 2010 than do the published projectors. Evidently, David Aardsma will soon be the Joe Nathan of the ALWest. If he does, wonder what the odds are he makes more than 2.75M in 2011?

Who is thumbs-down-ing level-headed responses like Steve’s?

The same m’s fans that think a decent season by Aardsma in a non-competitive year is going to project to a very good season as closer in a competitive year.

Me? I’m willing to wait and see how the whole plays out on, you know, the actual field.

If they want to put it all in the hands of David Aardsma, then fine. I’ve seen the prequel to that movie … starring Ryan Franklin.

I’m guessing mariner fans don’t think Aardsma will “regress to the mean”, but rather “came into his own” and “found his role”, and now he’ll dominate with a 1/2.75M contract.

Aardsma basically set career bests in everything in 09. If he matches (even similarly) that performance in ’10, I’ll be impressed. If he starts blowing games that the M’s need, I’ll remember this thread when the M’s go overspend on a reliable closer.

It’ll be like that thread where Cub Fans were getting all snarky about how the Cubs were going to dominate in 2009, and were the best team in the NL.

The Mariners should be an enjoyable team to watch in 2009, there’s no need for their fans to ruin by assuming a “smarter than everyone else” position. Of course, everyone has that right in the off-season, but I’d take a sip of humble juice and take a peak through history at all the teams that have erroneously assumed a great deal of improvement.

Somebody had to say it. Have the mariners even left ahead of the Rangers yet?

Note: I really like what SEA has done this off-season, but let’s not get crazy about it.

Nothing brings out a little negative votes like a suggestion that the Mariners or jack Z isn’t “IT”.

I also agree that the ChiSox have a very good chance at the ALC. But many here seem to have the blinders on in regards to Scherzer and think the Twins non-Mauer and Morneau players are going to have 3 WAR seasons again.

For Felix, a moderately likely outcome is that he will negotiate another lucrative long-term deal after the current one expires. Pitching at Safeco Field for an excellent organization for the next five years will tend to increase the value of that potential second contract. It’s easy to imagine that effect being $20m or greater, so the “discount” may actually be a speculative investment by Felix and his agent.

Cliff Lee, on the other hand, is eight years older and will (almost certainly) be negotiating his final long-term deal. His upcoming contract will be the overwhelming factor in determining whether his lifetime earnings reach milestones like $60m, $80m or $100m. Given only one high-leverage shot at big guaranteed money, there isn’t much justification to be choosy about teams. Any “discount” a team gets from Lee will probably be for personal reasons.

As a long-time Mariner fan it feels strange that players actually want to come to/stay in Seattle. It was normal and customary to pay an additional premium for quality free agents, comb the entire league for players with a connection to the Puget Sound area, and be ignored by many free agents each year. Now for the first time, the organization is credible enough to compete as an equal in the market for talent. The Mariners are still stuck in the upper left far away from what most players consider “home”, in a national media shadow with a brutal travel schedule. But they’ve also joined an exclusive club, that of well-run large-budget teams in cities where the fans and media aren’t jerks, and many players value that highly.

You can find closers for next to nothing such as David Aardsma for example

Aardsma is a product of very good luck and very good scouting on the Mariner’s end. Before 2009, he was projected for a 3.88 ERA.

http://www.baseballprojection.com/SEA2009p.htm

That’s not a very good closer – actually below replacement level. Aardsma worked for the M’s last year, but assuming you can consistently pick up guys off of the scrap heap and turn them into stud closers is a fallacy perpetuated by the F.A.T. culture of many Sabermetric oriented analyses.

Only certain types of players are F.A.T.’s, and they are freely available for a reason – most of the time due to injury risk or coming off of down years. You could get lucky like with Aardsma, or it could bite you in the ass like with Izringhausen.

…according to FanGraph’s estimates of WAR.

And HD makes a good point. Postseason does not factor into WAR valuations on FanGraphs. Rivera has been amazing in the postseason virtually every year, which raises his real life value tremendously.