The Forced Retirement Squad
It shouldn’t have been difficult for Kenny Lofton to find work after the 2007 season. He hit .296/.367/.414, played decent defense and tallied right around 3 WAR. He stole 23 of 30 bases, posted his first walk rate at 10 percent or higher since 2002, and managed to play in 136 games despite being 40 years old. His batting line was almost identical a year earlier with the Dodgers, and he posted 4 WAR a season before that with the Phillies. Age wasn’t slowing Lofton down, but as with any player that age, his performance could crater at any moment.
For that reason, teams were hesitant to offer Lofton a lucrative major league contract, if even for just one season. Though he was still potentially a very productive player, none of his offers made sense and he chose to retire. The Rays were interested but nothing materialized, and Lofton walked away after two seasons in which he averaged a .299/.364/.408 slash line, a .347 wOBA, 27 stolen bases and 2.2 WAR.
His forced retirement was indicative of a changing game. Players were being viewed under a different lens, and to most, guaranteeing a 40-year old a major league roster spot was too risky. Whether teams were off-base with that assessment of Lofton is certainly debatable, but it signified the end of a trend.
Older players couldn’t simply use their name power to get a guaranteed gig, and the teams that might have expressed interest are those the players likely wouldn’t consider to begin with. The choices left on the table were retirement or to accept a minor league deal and vie for a spot in spring training. At least four veterans, two of whom are going to the Hall of Fame, fit similar bills this offseason. Skills and remaining talent vary across the quintet, but they represent the type of player who would have been signed to a contract at this point no fewer than five or six years ago. Will any of Johnny Damon, Derrek Lee, Ivan Rodriguez, or Vladimir Guerrero latch on somewhere this year?
Simply put, Damon and Lee probably have a little left in the tank, while Pudge and Vlad are likely done. Only Lee remains a viable fielder, but his bat is weak for first base and he can’t play anywhere else. As a defensive replacement and bench bat he could have some value, but it’s tough to tell if he would rather retire than accept a lesser role. Lee has reportedly considered retirement, but while he still projects as a league average player, his numbers don’t project markedly better than various prospects within different systems.
From a cost-benefit standpoint, there isn’t much risk in going with the upper echelon prospect over Lee. If it works out, the team spent the league minimum to get above average production. Whereas Lee isn’t a true home run threat anymore and may not play more than 125 games. He is the perfect example of a player that could start for some bad teams — like the Orioles and Pirates, his two most recent destinations — but he isn’t going to land a significant role on a team of his choice.
The lack of interest in Damon is somewhat surprising. He produced 1.5 WAR last year and has averaged 2.8 WAR over the last four seasons. Then again, his 2008-11 marks show a gradual decline, and it’s unlikely that he will turn it around at 38 years old.
Despite the decline, he is still a very durable player with a league average bat, great baseball IQ and baserunning ability. He’s also 277 hits away from 3,000, which is attainable if he hits similarly to last season over the next two, stays healthy, and is given consistent playing time.
Guerrero hasn’t completely lost his hitting skills, but he just doesn’t have much to offer anymore. He absolutely cannot play the field, and he isn’t a significant threat at the plate. He walked in just 2.9 percent of his plate appearances last season and hit 13 home runs. And that was over a full, 145 game, 590 PA season. He still hit well from 2008-10, putting up wOBAs of .373, .343 and .360, respectively, but his .318 mark last season may be enough for teams to justify their lack of interest. It’s hard to sell a 37-year old non-fielder who hits below the league average. Vlad’s only hope is if some team decides he can get back to some semblance of his 2008-10, and that his name still carries some recognition power. Neither is really likely at this juncture.
Pudge seems like he’s been getting by on name recognition for the last few years, but he’s fared better than I remembered, posting right around 1.5 WAR from 2007-09 before half-win seasons in 2010-11. Catcher defense is still a rather murky analytic area, but scouting reports suggest he remains a decent defender. He absolutely cannot hit anymore but loves to play the game. That love is all that separates him from retiring and receiving his HOF-induction phone call in five years. Given the lack of interest in his services, he might not have to wait much longer.
None of these four players is in a situation analogous to Lofton’s, as he was still technically playing at an all-star caliber level. But that probably says more about his extremely bizarre situation than those of Damon, Pudge, Vlad and Lee. Five or six years ago, all four of these guys would have signed major league contracts for at least one more season. Now, it’s more likely than not that spring training invites on minor league deals represent their best offers. The game continues to evolve, and as focus shifts to developing younger players, the aging veterans with perhaps a little bit left in the tank are left out in the cold.
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Interesting comparisons.
The new provisions of the CBA require teams in order to avoid paying $100,000 to a player signed to a minor league contract to add the player to the major league roster or unconditionally release the player at least five days prior to Opening Day. I wonder if this will reverse the tide.
I doubt Lee will settle for a part-time job, unless it’s somewhere he really wants to play. He could’ve got a lot more money by accepting arbitration from the Pirates.
As it is, it’s looking increasingly likely that the Pirates won’t get a draft pick for him, because we can’t have nice things.
I think the Pirates want to start him at firstbase most of the time, but it seems to me he just does like playing for them.
Barry Bonds
Forcibly retired for very, very different reasons.
yeah, he was black listed for personality reasons,not talent.
I will miss Vlad, he was a real souvenir generator for the fans sitting behind third base. He probably has a future in Cricket, though.
If Thome and guys like him with limited skills get jobs, so can other guys. With hitting at a premium (will it be even worse this year) one would want defense and pitching to also crater so games don’t get even more boring. Hitting is a key art, best to, like pitching, get as many bodies as you can, and sort them out as you go to make your team a winner. Most of these guys could get a deal, as at least 3 will easily outplay 9-12 of their competitors.
Thome probably saw the trend and signed as soon as he could.
Brian Sabean only has so many roster spots available so I can see how this would be a problem.
If I had already amassed millions and was 277 hits away from a milestone, I’d offer to play for the league minimum (or whatever the min you can give a vet is) if I was guaranteed a starting spot. Even at a decreased level of performance, it would be worth it for the signing team. And it would remove the argument for paying a quad A player almost nothing to put up a similar line.
These guys have all made what, about $100+ million in their careers? 20 or 30 years ago they would have accepted a minor contract with a ST invite to try to pad their savings, but at this point they made so much during their heyday, that another $1 million just isn’t worth being a platoon DH on a team that isn’t going anywhere. And who could blame them? They’ve got trophy wives to go home to and kids to watch growing up.
It’s really quite sad. I wish they cared about stats as much as we do! The kids consideration is right on though. It’s a long season when you’re past your prime and missing all the cool stuff happening at home.
Thier ego, and thier agent, isn’t going to let them sign for less than what they think they’re worth.
That teams aren’t willing to pay that, is why they are ‘retiring’.
And like he said, they don’t have to play.
And they certainly don’t have to play for Pittsburg.
Which two are going to the hall of fame? I only see one hall of famer in that group of four (Pudge).
Is everyone going to ignore Pudge’s steroid problem. I mean, I’d vote for him, but I don’t have a vote yet.
Vlad says hello
Maybe these guys should follow Brad Penny to Japan? They have the DH over there too in one league.
You could’ve included Frank Thomas in this discussion, he retired because of no offers. Lofton retired, as I recall, retiredbecause he felt insulted by the offers he did get. $400,000 a year, after making millions? Insult me like that any time you like. As for Damon, he was screwed over by his agent. He should have signed a multi year deal with the Yanks at reduced money, but they flubbed that and now he’s without a team. He’s going to have to accept the minimum and play for some loser club that wants to sell tickets as he gets near 3000. It seems a big part of this is ego (whether the player can accept his reduced status and salary) and production (teams are more likely to keep a slugger like Thome or Giambi than a speed player). And correct me if I’m wrong, but didn’t Lofton have a rep as a malcontent?
Maybe players should consider setting up another league. Kind of like a seniors league, which will also sign include career minor leaguers, but it could expand to something that could eventually compete with MLB, even if only in a small way (enough of a threat to be buy out candidates).
Might start with 4 teams playing in minor league parks and they can try to get local TV deals for Saturday afternoon games not subject to Fox blackouts. Expand from there.
Owner players get an equity stake in the team/league, however it is structured, others get minimal salary hoping for another chance at the bigs.
Imagine bringing guys like Barry Bonds, McGuire, Manny, Damon, Pedro, Clemens, etc in as player/owners.
They can go on international barnstorming tours to Latin America and Asia as part of the season or just the offseason.
Who knows, maybe the league takes off and they make another fortune.
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Vlad would presumably be the other hall of famer. And with no links to the juice, I’d put him in.
Agreed, Guerrero is more of a lock than people know. Not just stats, not just carrying some teams, not just the 6 division and one league title, not just the leadership, but the playing at 110% while so, so many others lope and act like they deserve something no one can earn. MLB needs more Vlads, guys who play well and play with joy in their heart, not cheaters, whiners, quitters…. I hope he gets to play in 2012, who for?
Just the stats work for me, though
Whoever wrote this article probably thought Lance Berkman was done last year and laughed at the Cardinals for signing him to play outfield full-time.
It’s stupid sabermetrician and defensive metric fanatics that push these guys to DH and then blackball them out of the league. Barry Bonds was playing outfield full time when he was 43. I don’t care how bad these guys are defensively as long as they can mash. If a contending team give Vlad a chance, he could be rejuvenated and become this year’s Lance Berkman, who went from DH-ing for the Yankees to playing outfield full time for the world champion Cardinals. I would plug Damon and Vlad in the outfield over those all-gloves slap hitting scrubs like Ryan Langerhans, Nate Schierholtz, Will Venable, Ben Revere, Michael Brantley, David DeJesus, and Franklin Gutierrez any day. WAR is a dumb stat that overrate defense when most plays are routine plays and the best defense is simply good pitching. The Giants won the World series by starting Pat Burrell and Jose Guillen, 2 DHs at the time, in the outfield in 2010. The Cardinals won because of ignoring these defensive metric fanatics by signing Berkman to play outfield. Baseball would be a lot more fun with the best available players all playing and it’s a disgrace that Kenny Lofton, Jermaine Dye, Ray Durham, Troy Glaus, and many other productive players are forced into retirement. The owners are cheap and this is just an excuse for collusion.
Age is just a number. Garrett Atkins, Chuck Knoblauch, and Travis Fryman washed out when they were just in their early 30s while tons of players manage to stay productive and relevant into their late 30s and 40s (Frank Thomas, Barry Bonds, Jeff Kent, Moises Alou, and many more). It’s an injustice and a slap in the face to fans that teams are blackballing capable players year after year and force us to watch minor league scrubs who have no business in the major league.
As for Lee, the argument that a triple-a guy could duplicate his production is a very dumb one. The whole concept of “replacement level” is very stupid. Lee had a .780 OPS the last 2 seasons. He’s a professional hitter who gets on base and still hit for a bit of power. You could do worse. A lot of guys like quad-a guys like Brett Wallace, Brad Eldred, Mike Jacobs, Ryan Shealy are not in the major league for a reason. They either strike out too much, lack plate discipline, or have very weak power. I would take Lee over Chris Davis, Mitch Moreland, Casey Kotchman, Justin Smoak, Daric Barton, Mat Gamel, Garrett Jones, Bryan LaHair, Brett Wallace, Paul Goldschmidt, James Loney, Aubrey Huff, and Jesus Guzman. That means Lee is definitely an upgrade over 40% of the currently projected starting first basemen. He is also just as good as a few others such as Todd Helton, Adam LaRoche, etc. If an “upper echelon” prospect could outproduce Lee then why are so many teams starting the aforementioned clowns at first base who are all worst than Lee? Couldn’t they just bring up someone from triple-a?
How could Guerrero be done when he hit .290 last year? If he were done what does that say about David DeJesus, Adam Lind, and Luke Scott? How are Luke Scott, David DeJesus, Ryan Ludwick, and Juan Rivera better than Guerrero, Matsui, Ibanez, and Damon? Someone please tell me why Brian Bogusevic, David DeJesus, Nolan Reimold, Chris Young, and Ryan Sweeney will be starting at outfield for an MLB team but not Damon.
As for Pudge, he is at least a decent backup at this point. He should be signed by now.