The Franchise Player
A few weeks ago, I was asked the popular barstool argument question: if you could start a franchise with just one player – with contracts and dollars being irrelevant – who would it be? I’d guess that a lot of us have had that conversation more than once. It’s a fun topic to talk about.
There are a few names that naturally get mentioned early on. Joe Mauer, Evan Longoria, and Hanley Ramirez are popular choices because they’re established stars and still in the earlier stages of their careers. Albert Pujols and Chase Utley get nominated for their sheer greatness, even though they’re already past their primes. Miguel Cabrera draws a mention from people who want to build around a premier young hitter. And then you’ll have the guy who likes pitching and brings up Tim Lincecum, Josh Johnson, Jon Lester, or Felix Hernandez.
There’s one guy that never gets brought up, though, who might just be the best answer of them all: Ryan Zimmerman. He shares the spotlight with Adam Dunn and Stephen Strasburg in Washington, but given how good he has become at such a young age, his star should shine the brightest.
Last year, Zimmerman had his breakout season, putting up a +6.6 win season that ranked as the ninth best in baseball. This year, he’s followed it up with a +6.0 win season so far, ranking second. Since the beginning of the 2009 season, only Albert Pujols has posted a better WAR than Zimmerman. He has become a complete all-around player, adding patience and power to an already impressive skillset.
Because he came up at an early age and was just a good hitter rather than a great one out of the gates, his reputation has seemingly not yet caught up with his abilities. However, let’s just throw this out there:
Rest-of-season ZiPS projections:
Zimmerman: .289/.366/.526, .388 wOBA
Longoria: .276/.360/.519, .385 wOBA
Ramirez: .307/.384/.509, .393 wOBA
Those are basically an estimate of true talent level, and it sees no discernible differences between the three as hitters. While the other two have significantly better career slash lines, Zimmerman’s performance over his last 1,100 plate appearances has been better than either of the other two.
Defensively, he and Longoria couldn’t be more similar, as they are the two premier young defensive third baseman in the game. Which one you like more is basically a matter of preference – they’re both outstanding. Ramirez does not rate out nearly as well, but of course he’s playing a more difficult position and being compared to better defenders overall. I would still place him a bit behind both of the third baseman in defensive value, but the gap isn’t as large as simply comparing their UZRs would suggest.
Longoria turns 25 in October, while Zimmerman turns 26 a couple of weeks prior to that. Ramirez turns 27 in December. Ramirez has a bit better offensive track record but is the oldest and worst defender of the trio. Longoria is the youngest, but his best season at the plate is not as good as the best season of either of the other two.
It is splitting hairs to pick between them, but gun to my head, I think I’d take Washington’s third baseman. Right now, he’s the perfect blend, combining Ramirez’s offense with Longoria’s defense into one unbelievably good package.
If his teammates were more talented, he’d be have a strong case for the NL MVP right now. Zimmerman has truly become of the game’s great young players, and the guy I’d point to if I could only take one player to begin a franchise.
4
Give me Troy Tulowitzki over the Z pack.
Dammit Jay! That’s what I get for taking too long to write my post.
What is the obsession with Tulowitzki among some people? Yes, he is very good, but he is also injury-prone and at times inconsistent.
Zimmerman is a much better player and they’re the same age.
Not to mention that Tulo gets a big boost from Coors that Zimmerman does not enjoy.
His main injuries have been a quad, a hand laceration, and a broken wrist. The latter two are not the kind that are likely to occur again, though the wrist might have lasting effects.
Ha! I meant to ask this in today’s chat actually…whether Longoria would essentially still be at the top of the trade value chart even if we tossed his contract out the window. FWIW, I think I’d still take him, but as a DC resident (albeit loyal O’s fan) I have come to appreciate Zimmerman’s greatness after seeing him play so often.
One name I’m surprised you didn’t mention though, and a name I always bring up when I have this conversation with friends: Troy Tulowitzki. He’s 25 years old, a plus defender at short who can stay there long term, and has a .393 wOBA for the second straight year. You have to downgrade him for the injuries that have caused him to miss a decent chunk of games already early in his career, but he has to be in the discussion, right?
Where’s Votto?
He’s only 5 months younger than Cabrera and doesn’t have near Cabrera’s track record.
And why would anyone start a team with a first baseman.
Yeah, because if this was 2004 you wouldn’t start your team with Pujols. Not conflating Votto and Pujols, btw, just debunking the dismissal of considering a 1B.
now if we can just figure out how to make Zim stop taking off the month of June…
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?n1=zimmery01&year=Career&t=b#month
Nice little article – I’ve owned Z on my fantasy team for a few years and have watched closely as he’s become a monster. Just a great ballplayer.
nerd
I hate to be this guy, but how do you account for the differences of competition from the AL and NL between the two third basemen. If you see the two’s stats as equal. Is it reasonable to give Longoria the upper hand?
This is a good question. In measuring value, one should as much as possible adjust for everything out of a player’s control, and this includes level of competition. Also note that Longoria is playing in the AL East.
Then also note that Zimmerman is playing in the NL East, which may not be quite as good as the AL version, but is certainly the second best. I don’t really think that can be held against him. He also plays in a much worse lineup, for what that’s worth.
Longoria is also playing against AL minus the Rays, while Zim is playing NL minus the Nats… so we can move their comp a little closer
Well said, Will.
Correct me if I’m wrong, but my understanding of the difference in leagues largely relates to pitching not batting. Pitching in the AL is much more difficult because of the DH (no easy-out pitcher to lobs strikes at). Is there evidence that the pitching in the AL is superior to the NL? And is it consistently each year superior to the NL?
You could argue that the AL East is a more difficult division than the NL East, but then Braves, Phillies, Marlins and Mets are not pushovers.
Lesser pitchers enjoy success in the NL. Zim get to hit against these pitchers. So, if you believe the first statement, Zim’s stats are inflated to some degree.
No, Bill. That’s not how it works. “Lesser pitchers enjoy success in the NL.” Okay. If that’s true, then a significant part of the reasoning is because they face a pitcher rather than a DH 10% of the time.
The NL may make some pitchers look better in the NL than they are in the AL, but that doesn’t make them any easier to face.
Troy Tulowitzki has 15.1 career WAR. Zimmerman has 25.2 and Longoria has 17.7. Tulo’s injury history is kind of scary too.
HE GOT HIT BY A PITCH that isn’t “Injury History” that is bad luck
I know this isn’t the point of the article, but I don’t consider Albert Pujols “past his prime.”
Whether or not you consider him to be so…he probably is. A slightly past-his-prime Pujols is still a VERY VERY GOOD ballplayer, though.
I knew that would get somebody’s ire up. I wouldn’t put words into Dave’s mouth, but I can see what he means given the context of the article: if you’re building a team around a player, you’re more interested in where he’s headed than where he’s been. Pujols is a great player, maybe the greatest now playing, but given the other, younger choices, is he the guy you build a team around? Or is he, for that purpose, past his prime?
But what does a “franchise player” when “building a team” really mean? Next year? Next two years? Next three years? Ten years? I’d take Pujols, past his prime, for the next three years over anyone else. Five years? Maybe not. The parameters haven’t been laid out at all. If contracts and cost are irrelevant, then you take the absolute best player available at the moment, because two years later, contracts and cost are still irrelevant, and you can take someone else.
Whether you consider him “past his prime” or not, you have to recognize that Zimmerman in all likelihood has more useful years in hm than Pujols. The best players longevity-wise remain valuable into their late-30s. The absolute freaks might crack 40. Most players max out in their late-20s and steadily decline into their mid-30s. Pujols is incredible, and has farther to decline than any other player in baseball. He should be good to great for quite awhile. Zimmerman, though, most likely has a lot more years of peak or near-peak performance to look forward to than Prince Albert.
I’d still rather have Longoria just because he does commercials.
But Mauer does too, and his are funnier.
But you wouldn’t pick him because he is injury prone, and older.
I wouldn’t really put him past these three, but what about Pedroia? Also, I’d consider youth in this hypothetical since Franchise Player, to me, is a player you’d have for all or most of his career. That’s why I’d take a long look at Justin Upton, considering what he’s accomplished by 22 in the majors.
Heyward > Upton IMO.
I’d still take Zimmerman over either of them at this point though. I might change my mind in another year.
Stanton > Heyward
Just sayin
May depend, too, on which Upton shows up next year:
2009 version – 899 OPS, 126 OPS+, .388 wOBA, 5.2 WAR
2010 version – 786 OPS, 103 OPS+, .343 wOBA, 3.2 WAR
Longoria does it in the AL East. The other two do it in the NL (lol) West. End of story.
I respect your opinion, but I disagree. From my perspective, I would consider Hanley and Ryan to play for the NL East. Agree to disagree?
Solid observation seeing as Tampa is actually farther West than Miami or Washington.
Last I checked, Washington was in the Pacific Northwest. And, judging from what I’ve seen on TV, Miami must be somewhere in California.
You know I’m right when the only thing you have to go on is a typo.
Except the NL East is probably the second-best division in baseball, so your “typo” completely changes the complexion of the argument.
The NL “(lol)” West has the best pitching in baseball, so it makes good offensive numbers even better considering this.
Thanks for showing your genius, Jake.
What about Hamilton? Does his age(He’s not old at 29 but he’s not in his mid 20s like other guys mentioned) hurt him?
For the record not saying he would be my pick just throwing another name out there.
His age definitely hurts him. So does the fact that he’s extremely injury prone.
When all is said and done it will be extremely interesting to see who the best player turned out to be from that awesome 2005 draft class.
I like that Zimmerman is considered, he clearly should be. I’d take Longoria also because he is younger and I think still getting better. Zimmerman is basically at his peak now and while he should sustain in for 3-4 years, I think Longoria still has better seasons ahead of him. Tulo is an interesting call, but the injuries make Longoria a better pick.
How long until Buster Posey gets consideration?
It is premature to say Zimmerman is at his peak. He’s improved at least one statistic every season. I don’t see why he couldn’t work on being a bit more consistent and eliminating the June swoon he seems to have. Today his 2010 line is .304/.389/.549 which ranks him 19/10/13 is MLB. Is .320/.405/.565 really out of the question for him? That would be top 10 in all those categories. Especially if he gets some additional protection in the lineup, I could see him not as a triple crown threat, but as a Cal Ripken with a better average so a perennial MVP candidate.
Yeah, I don’t see a real reason to consider a 25-year-old with a great hitter’s profile “at his peak.” Obviously it’s possible that ’09/’10 represent the absolute upper level of his abilities, but I’m not sure why we should just assume that.
This is a more succinct article than one I submitted last week to this site regarding the current best third baseman in the game. Perhaps it will be published, although 1,000+ words in addition to this is probably too much for the topic.
Anyway, I came out slightly for Longo if we believe his HR/FB rate will return to the 15-17% range. But I love Zim.
Isn’t what Mauer gives you the hardest to replace? Or do you worry that he’ll either get injured or move off catcher and hurt his value too much?
Yes, yes, and yes.
As a Twins homer I better make the case for Mauer:
20 more points of wOBA over Longoria over the last three years at the hardest defensive position. Longoria’s only a touch behind him in total WAR, but his value depends disproportionately on elite-level defensive play, which simply isn’t as repeatable year-to-year as elite-level offense. Yeah, being a catcher might cause Mauer wear and tear, but it also increases his upside and gives him a lot of downside slack: his offense and defense don’t have to be as awesome to be a star-level overall player and he can move off catcher and still have the chance to be an excellent player with his bat.
Age difference is 1 year, 6 months–not a big deal–and Mauer has twice as long of an MLB track record.
The age difference is a bigger deal when one of them is a catcher. Don’t dismiss the demands of the position. Catcher attrition is higher than any position except pitcher.
Rob Neyer just smacked you down son…
http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/4866/picking-your-franchise-player
Longo not facing the Rays’ staff and Zim not facing the Nats staff narrows the gap. The pitching talent in the NL East isn’t horrible; Halladay, Hamels, Hudson, Santana, Johnson. Until Rob can tell me just how much easier it is to hit Hamels’ changeup than CC’s changeup, Lester’s slider, or Garza’s fastball, you can’t seriously question the conclusion.
Outside the respective divisions, sure, the talent is more thin. But you’re talking exclusively about pitching and not all players.
Longoria gets to face Baltimore and Toronto’s pitching staffs too, you know! Top to bottom there may be more depth in NYM, ATL, PHI, and FLA just because BAL, TOR, and even BOS apparently have some pretty rough pitching.
Maybe this is nitpicking, but you also have to include defense. So, exclusively pitching and defense.
I know I’m nitpicking but Lester does not throw a slider, he throws a nasty nasty cutter and a plus change and curve.
fair point Bellow.
And Neyer didn’t think that out very well.
I’d take Votto over any of those fools! He has a good enough track record for me and is showing improvement across the board as he enters his prime power years. He might be a first baseman, but he was WAR-ing at a ridiculous rate until his recent 8-game power lull (even though one of his singles last night was ludicrously not scored a double). Votto’s drawn more walks, hit for more power and better average and has improved his defense in every professional season since his 89 rookie plate appearances. I guess he’s almost 27, but that’s the only knock I’ve got on him.
It’s been said, but I’d take Longoria given the year younger and tougher league.
Zim’s offensive nadir in 08 was largely due to an injury issue that killed his power. As a Nats fan, I was worried about the extension he got in early ’09, but that’s obviously completely eradicated.
Totally anecdotal and small-sample size, but Zim also has 6 career walkoff HR’s already. Kid Clutch.
Lastly, I moved to NYC from DC about three months ago and was talking to a Yankees fan I met in a store about Zimmerman. I mentioned that being a Nats fan is tough, but getting to enjoy Strassy and a top 10 position player made it easier. He scoffed and told me that Zim “probably isn’t top 50.” Whatever, that guy totally likes batting average and saves probably.
Your average fangraphs clicker knows about the greatness of Peter Franchise, but the rest of the world doesn’t. Keep spreading the word, DC. (!!)
Bryce Harper
What an sleeper pick? Starlin Castro…The dude reminds me of a young Derek Jeter.
Eep!! SSS. let’s at least see if he can put it together for a season or two.
Likewise, if Strasburg can, and stays healthy, I think he immediately moves to the front of the pitching class. Maybe ahead of everyone but Longoria and HanRam.
Hey… there’s a good chance Starlin can be a decent defender at SS… There’s no need to hang the Jeter tag on him already!
Reminds me of a young Elvis Andrus. Wait…. Elvis is young.
I remember when the answer to this question would have been “David Wright”.
If you look at Pujols career as a bell curve, he probably is “past his prime” in therms of the being on the “deline side” of his best season … but Pujols’s “peak area” of the curve is so wide/long, that even being “past his prime” is extremelly productive.
One also has to ask, “What is Pujols going to lose in the decline?” Power? Discipline? Health?
He’s not an “elite bat speed” guy like typical power hitter (100mph plus, Pujols is around 86mph). He’s not just pull heavy. He doesn’t K a lot, etc. He may actually be one of those guysd whose BA goes up as he ages due to hitting more liners to the gaps, then long balls. But, most likely, he’ll be nearly as productive until injuries start taking games away from each season and he gets tired of rehabbing.
Stan Musial, a similar type hitter, was very productive for looooong time. We shouldn’t attribute to Albert a typical career curve. He’s far from typical.
Cano might not be a bad pick given the combination of [1] production, [2] improvement, [3] position, [4] natural ability, and [5] age.
Just two years ago Wright and Reyes would have been two of the top guys on this list. But as a Mets fan I wonder if they will ever be back to they were two years ago.
I just graphed (on a sheet of paper) Pujols’s wOBA production by year. Try it and see if you can find his “peak”.
Then try and decide if he’s past his prime or not.
2001: .421
2002: .402
2003: .462
2004: .439
2005: .436
2006: .448
2007: .414
2008: .458
2009: .449
2010: .417
2008 and 2009 were higher than every year except for the moster (even for him) 2003.
The years he has posted a wOBA under .420, he’s responded with a drastic increase the following year.
It’s hilarious that even at his worst, he’s awesome.
Of course this has me wondering what is the record for most .400+ wOBA seasons. So far, he’s 9-for-9.
I don;t think we can say “past his prime” yet, until we can identify his prime. The only way he’s “past his prime” is if 08 and 09 were his prime, which could be a possibility. Of course, we’ll say that and he’ll post a .455 season in 2011.
SABRJIZZ
2003-09
He could still post a 455 wOBA this year
I can imagine, every year, from here on out we predict Pujols’s decline, and then some year from 2014-2017, he’ll put up a wOBA that starts with a “3″ and people will clamour “See, I told ya.”
*grin*
The crazy thing about this…is that those aren’t park adjusted.
While Albert is amazing, think of it this way:
In 2003, there was no doubt whatsoever who the best player in baseball was. You can talk about steroids all you want, but nobody else has even sniffed Barry Bonds’ numbers in the modern era.
And even though Bonds was undoubtedly the game’s best player, the only really acceptable answers to “who would you start your franchise with” were Pujols and Alex Rodriguez. And really, Pujols was the clear answer, as he was 5 years younger and Rodriguez was starting to bulk up and lose defensive range.
“The franchise player” is necessarily going to change every couple of years, as an upstart young player joins the ranks of the game’s elite. Because of the way players age, the “guy I’d want to have for his whole career from this moment on” is going to be highly variable.
I’ll have Longoria over Zim, but it’s pretty close.
Same here. Plus I’m afraid Longoria is going down the Braun road (not that scary) where he is sacrificing power for better contact. Though in Longoria’s case it still hasn’t translated to a .300 batting average. Imo Longoria is the most overrated players in the Bigs mostly because he has been tabbed a top 3B and future HoF (he was in a MLB commercial) when he still hasn’t hit for big time power in a season or hit .300 once. Plus Longoria tends to fall of at the end of season. He starts off scorching and then slumps to the end of the season. Zimmerman is better
Longoria’s wOBA sits at .380 after a massive slump. He’s not exactly an offensive slouch.
His WARs for his career: 5.3 (in less than a full season), 7.1, and 5.5 to-date in 2010.
He may be merely arguably the game’s top franchise player instead of undoubtedly so, but calling him overrated is taking things a bit too far.
A-Rod could well hit 200/300/400 with 150 RBI/season for the next 10 years, that’s some clutch value.
Giving the nod to Longoria because of the “AL East” argument is effing LAUGHABLE!
Longoria faces the Yanks, Red Sox, Orioles and Blue Jays. He doesn’t have to face the best starting staff in the league, his own Rays.
While Zimmerman faces the Mets, Braves, Phillies and Marlins.
Debate THAT!
The Rays actually DO NOT have the best pitching in the AL East. Their best pitcher has a 3.1 WAR (This is actually last Friday I checked I believe), and no one else had over a 1.4 WAR at that time. Pretty ERAs, not much else.
Actually Ivdown….
When dealing with MASSIVE sample sizes, such as team statistics (nearly 1100 IP), ERA is a very useful stat. The Rays have the best ERA+ in the league. No one else in the AL East is even close.
And afterall….
Why would you want to look at the pitcher’s WAR for Zimmerman’s and Longoria’s opponents. They are not only facing the other pitchers but the opposing DEFENSES as well.
Just sayin
What Bill said. It may not be solely the pitchers’ doing, but the Rays are a team with elite run prevention. However you want to dole out the credit for that, not having to face them is a measurable advantage to Longoria.
Of course, Longoria’s defense is part of the reason the team’s run prevention is so good, so facing off against the Rays’ run prevention would be impossible.
The two are pretty much equal in my mind, with Zimmerman being the slightly better hitter, Longoria the better baserunner/younger, and fielding being roughly equal.
I’m surprised no one has brought up his contract as an aspect.
This is a great discussion. It’s good to see Zimmerman getting recognition but I think Longoria is better for the reasons mentioned. Ultimately, I think my choice would be Ramirez, but it’s close.
Great convo just one issue… would your opinions of franchise players change if you consider which league setup your “franchise” is apart of? Just asking…
In an AL setup, I would rather have the big hitter and sacrifice some defense. Thus, Miguel Cabrera would be my guy. It’s hard to turn down a 27 year old with .300/30/100 in 6 of the last 8 seasons. Plus 5 out of his 8 seasons in the league, he’s posted a WAR over 5. Defense will be something I would have to swallow but the offensive production is hard to ignore.
In an NL setup, I would take Zimmerman any day over Longoria. They are pretty much the same player from a talent standpoint (yes, Longoria better runner and slightly younger; Zimmerman the better hitter). Outside of statistics, Longoria has had the luxury of better talent surrounding him (Upton, Crawford, Pena). Zimmerman is lucky enough to have Dunn (and an underrated Josh Willingham).
I don’t see why Longoria having Upton, Crawford, and Pena around him helps his numbers at all. Guys constantly pitch around Longoria to get to Pena for the easy K, Upton hasn’t had a decent season offensively since 2007 and Crawford batting before Longoria does nothing but increase his RBI totals. I know that Dunn strikes out a ton, but still hits for a way better average than Pena, and as you said Willingham is a solid hitter. So Zimmerman actually has the advantage in that respect, IMO.
Really, no feasible candidates outside of Longoria/Zimmerman? Carlos Gonzalez? I realize his record is brief, but he plays up the middle and seems to have responded to the pressure of starting. Oh wait, someone already disqualified all Rockies for all time due to ballpark geography, never mind. Guess that makes analysis easier for him.
This game (choosing franchise player) would be more fun if we didn’t focus on candidates with 3+ years of MLB stats. Splitting hairs about NL v. AL, wOBA, etc. is just dull. We end up simply debating known quantities and making arbitrary selections anyway. While a gleam in one’s eye is not a verifiable stat, it is a data point nonetheless.
Yeah, why not talk about the Uptons, the Gonzalezes, the others who haven’t established an irrefutable baseline. The only thing you’d risk as a GM with Longoria and Zim is whether they retain their dedication and commitment when making $15-20 million plus.
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