The Future(s) of Pitch F/X
Yesterday, while teams wound down prior to the All-Star festivities, some of the top minor league prospects participated in the Futures Game. The World defeated the United States 3-0, and wow does that sound odd when repeated out loud. While I didn’t get to watch anything other than Carlos Carrasco‘s inning—says the Phillies fan—I was more interested in seeing the Pitch F/X data for the minor league extravaganza. With that in mind, I decided to take a look at the wide array of pitchers who found their way into the game, in order to provide a sneak peak of sorts as far as what teams may be in store for.
Now, granted, all of these are small samples as each pitcher went for no more than one inning of work, but the velocity and movement readings below should be interesting for at least an “initial” look. For reference, the numbers will go: velocity in mph followed by movement in horizontal inches/vertical inches. An example would be, FA = 90.01, 3.32/4.56. First, the lefties:
- Brett Anderson, Athletics: FA = 92.37, 3.34/8.73, CB = 81.53, -5.05/-3.24
- Polin Trinidad, Astros: FA = 88.18, 6.05/9.65, CH = 81.18, 7.08/6.57
And that concludes our look at the lefthanded pitchers partaking in the Futures Game. Clayton Richard, a lefthanded White Sox prospect, did pitch but the system offered insufficient data to get any sense other than his fastball appeared to be around 89-90 miles per hour. Next up, the righties:
- Carlos Carrasco, Phillies: FA = 91.46, -7.53/10.05, CH = 83.58, -9.18/2.53
- Casey Weathers, Rockies: FA = 96.21, -9.95/8.70, SL = 85.49, 1.95/-0.03
- Eduardo Morlan, Rays: FA = 89.44, -9.64/9.62, SL = 80.63, -1.04/1.38, CH = 79.57, -8.78/3.61
- Fernando Salas, Cardinals: FA = 91.50, -8.51/9.92, CH = 84.13, -9.91/5.22
- Hector Rondon, Indians: FA = 93.28, -8.11/10.65, SL = 80.23, 1.11/-0.48
- Henry Rodriguez, Athletics: FA = 98.09, -10.07/9.85, SL/CUT = 91.95, -4.58/4.25
- Jake Arrieta, Orioles: FA = 91.85, -7.98/9.70
- Jess Todd, Cardinals: FA = 88.00, -5.29/4.76, SL = 83.93, -1.95/0.95
- Jesus Delgago, Marlins: FA = 93.30, -4.99/7.35
- Kevin Pucetas, Giants: FA = 90.72, -12.46/9.39, CB = 73.95, 0.67/-6.78, CH = 80.68, -12.30/8.21
- Ryan Mattheus, Rockies: FA = 93.76, -9.29/6.81
- Shairon Martis, Nationals: FA = 91.58, -8.79/9.88, CB = 73.43, 0.18/-0.87, SL = 80.05, -1.95/-0.78
- Trevor Cahill, Athletics: FA = 91.43, -13.31/4.49, SL = 82.43, -3.87/0.66
Julio Pimentel (Royals) and William Inman (Padres) also pitched, but there wasn’t enough data captured by the system to offer anything regarding their repertoire, velocity, or movement relative to this game. What stands out to me upon first glance of these numbers is Kevin Pucetas‘s movement and velocity on both his fastball and changeup. He was able to get close to 12.5 inches of horizontal movement on both pitches—Brandon Webb is averaging close to 8 horizontal inches this year—and the movement on both pitches was essentially the same. Put together, he was throwing virtually the same pitch albeit ten miles per hour slower with his changeup.
The lively fastballs of Henry Rodriguez and Casey Weathers caught my eye as well since they really separated themselves from the rest of the group in that department. The game looked like a good one and a shutout in an all-star game is pretty rare. Thoughts from those who were able to watch more than my one inning?
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Hey… as I was getting into Pitch F/x, I was just wondering about movement values. Maybe one of you guys could write an article detailing what good, average, and bad vertical/horizontal movement is for curves, cutters, fastballs, sliders, etc. Also, through looking at the movement, is it possible to decipher the trajectory of the pitches? Sometimes, I wonder about who throws a 11-5 curve, a 12-6 curve, a 1-7 curve… and what not. Thanks a lot.
I was at the game for the first six innings. The game was boring as most of the hitters looked over matched by the pitching. You go to a game like that to see home runs, not watch the World team get thrown out on the base paths three times in six innings.
Anyways, the first baseman for the World team, Sandoval (Catching prospect for the giants) stood out to me. We got to se LaPorta hit a single and the Pirates McCutchen make a nice catch in the outfield.
I can’t post a whole bunch of links here or my comment won’t get through, but to the first commenter: Go to The Hardball Times and on the left side of the page (about half way down), search for “anatomy of a player: league average pitcher.” For individual pitches search for “anatomy of a pitch.”
Hope that helps.
You can also go to Statistically Speaking and look for my article, “Breaking Down the Heater” which looks at the average movement for fastballs 92+, at each mph interval.
Chris, how did Rodriguez, Weathers, and Carrasco look to you?
I was at the game. At one point I was chatting with my friend when I heard the loudest glove pop I’d ever heard. I looked up and the scoreboard said 100mph. It was Henry Rodriguez. The next two pitches were clocked at 100 as well, so we thought the scoreboard was broken. Then the next pitch was in the low 90s, so… so much for that theory. Pitch f/x only recorded one 100mph pitch, but the stadium had at least three. Either way, he was impressive.
Hi!,