Comments on: The Great Bargain Of 2009 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-great-bargain-of-2009/ Daily baseball statistical analysis and commentary Thu, 18 Mar 2010 21:17:09 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.2 hourly 1 By: Lukas http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-great-bargain-of-2009/#comment-48082 Lukas Tue, 21 Oct 2008 16:34:03 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-great-bargain-of-2009/#comment-48082 Dave, what would be a good source exactly of seeing +X win players, age, and the free agent deal they signed? It would be interested in seeing how much exactly Ellis would have to regress before this deal would actually be considered bad. Dave, what would be a good source exactly of seeing +X win players, age, and the free agent deal they signed? It would be interested in seeing how much exactly Ellis would have to regress before this deal would actually be considered bad.

]]> By: Dave Cameron http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-great-bargain-of-2009/#comment-47962 Dave Cameron Tue, 21 Oct 2008 02:08:17 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-great-bargain-of-2009/#comment-47962 The idea that Ellis is going to go from a +3 win player in 2008 to a "future suck" next year is... wrong is really the best word for it. The idea that Ellis is going to go from a +3 win player in 2008 to a “future suck” next year is… wrong is really the best word for it.

]]> By: Jay http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-great-bargain-of-2009/#comment-47938 Jay Mon, 20 Oct 2008 23:22:57 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-great-bargain-of-2009/#comment-47938 Hey look - I'm all for Dave's argument that Ellis' past performance says he's undervalued by the terms in his new contract, but that doesn't account for the future suck that is destined to become Mark Ellis 2009/2010. He's taking physical steps down, not up, and his range isn't likely to improve. He'll be less sharp defensively, even worse offensively, on a team that is stock full of 2nd-basemen and 2nd-basemen-to-be at every level of the minors. Now if Ellis gets dealt in some crazy package for a bounty of insurmountable assets, then this was a good sign of an undervalued resource, but if he just takes up a starting spot because his defense is undervalued, I'm not for it. Hey look – I’m all for Dave’s argument that Ellis’ past performance says he’s undervalued by the terms in his new contract, but that doesn’t account for the future suck that is destined to become Mark Ellis 2009/2010.

He’s taking physical steps down, not up, and his range isn’t likely to improve. He’ll be less sharp defensively, even worse offensively, on a team that is stock full of 2nd-basemen and 2nd-basemen-to-be at every level of the minors.

Now if Ellis gets dealt in some crazy package for a bounty of insurmountable assets, then this was a good sign of an undervalued resource, but if he just takes up a starting spot because his defense is undervalued, I’m not for it.

]]> By: Marcel http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-great-bargain-of-2009/#comment-47927 Marcel Mon, 20 Oct 2008 22:26:50 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-great-bargain-of-2009/#comment-47927 Joel - Bill James Online has the Dewan +/- numbers (costs three bucks a month). And you can find RZR at TheHardballTimes.com. I don't know where to find MGL's numbers though (and I don't think he's done the year-end numbers yet, anyway.) Joel –

Bill James Online has the Dewan +/- numbers (costs three bucks a month). And you can find RZR at TheHardballTimes.com. I don’t know where to find MGL’s numbers though (and I don’t think he’s done the year-end numbers yet, anyway.)

]]> By: Lukas http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-great-bargain-of-2009/#comment-47916 Lukas Mon, 20 Oct 2008 21:04:20 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-great-bargain-of-2009/#comment-47916 Great post, I've been telling everyone what a smart signing this was after seeing those +/- defensive stats bear that out. Low risk signing as well as it's only his age 32-33 and possibly 34th year. Great post, I’ve been telling everyone what a smart signing this was after seeing those +/- defensive stats bear that out. Low risk signing as well as it’s only his age 32-33 and possibly 34th year.

]]> By: AZSEAfan http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-great-bargain-of-2009/#comment-47913 AZSEAfan Mon, 20 Oct 2008 20:59:23 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-great-bargain-of-2009/#comment-47913 Well there goes AZ's plan "A" once O-Dawg runs for the hells. Well there goes AZ’s plan “A” once O-Dawg runs for the hells.

]]> By: salb918 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-great-bargain-of-2009/#comment-47906 salb918 Mon, 20 Oct 2008 20:18:30 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-great-bargain-of-2009/#comment-47906 Agreed, Dave, as I've been touting how much I love this signing all over the blogosphere. One nitpick, though: MaEl's low BABIP last year may not be totally undeserved. He popped up at an alarming frequency (easily highest rate in the majors at 25%), and popups - though counted as BIPs - are turned into outs at basically 99%+ frequency. Now, all those popups could be fluke, or as one commenter at athleticsnation posited, it could have to do with the shoulder injury. Or it could be a change in skill (unlikely), who knows? Agreed, Dave, as I’ve been touting how much I love this signing all over the blogosphere.

One nitpick, though: MaEl’s low BABIP last year may not be totally undeserved. He popped up at an alarming frequency (easily highest rate in the majors at 25%), and popups – though counted as BIPs – are turned into outs at basically 99%+ frequency.

Now, all those popups could be fluke, or as one commenter at athleticsnation posited, it could have to do with the shoulder injury. Or it could be a change in skill (unlikely), who knows?

]]> By: Joel http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-great-bargain-of-2009/#comment-47900 Joel Mon, 20 Oct 2008 19:30:55 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-great-bargain-of-2009/#comment-47900 Does anybody know a good resource for fielding stats? Does anybody know a good resource for fielding stats?

]]> By: Isaac http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-great-bargain-of-2009/#comment-47897 Isaac Mon, 20 Oct 2008 19:26:36 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-great-bargain-of-2009/#comment-47897 There is another point of this article that Bob missed. Beane isn't paying Ellis for what he did this year, rather for what he will do the next two seasons. Ellis put up ugly surface stats, but when you look deeper you see that Ellis didn't play that badly and his AVG/OBP would have been much higher if his hit rate wouldn't have been so low. Even if he keeps up his current slash line he is valuable; Imagine how big of a bargain he will be when his numbers regress appropriately. There is another point of this article that Bob missed. Beane isn’t paying Ellis for what he did this year, rather for what he will do the next two seasons. Ellis put up ugly surface stats, but when you look deeper you see that Ellis didn’t play that badly and his AVG/OBP would have been much higher if his hit rate wouldn’t have been so low. Even if he keeps up his current slash line he is valuable; Imagine how big of a bargain he will be when his numbers regress appropriately.

]]> By: philosofool http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-great-bargain-of-2009/#comment-47894 philosofool Mon, 20 Oct 2008 19:07:53 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-great-bargain-of-2009/#comment-47894 Bob, I don't think you've really understood Dave's argument. Once we combine offense production (6 runs below replacement) with defensive production (15 runs above), Ellis nets the team 10 runs above an average second baseman. Replacement level (i.e. league minimum salary AAA guy you could have via rule 5 or whatever) is about 20 runs below average. That makes Ellis 30 runs or about 3 wins above replacement, which (when it's all from offense) is worth about $12-15M a year in a five year contract. But Ellis particular skill set is terribly undervalued by today's market, so Billy Beane (who knows what almost everything in baseball is worth) just got two years for Ellis for the price on one year of a guy who's skillset is all about a bat. Have you noticed how much A's pitchers seems to exceed their FIP this season? That's because the A's have several very good infielders on their team (and also partly their pitcher's park home field.) I noticed that Rotoworld canned this move by Beane the other day. Immediately went to look at Ellis RZR at the THT. Sure enough: Ellis stands out as among the best defensive 2B's alive by the (inferior but still helpful) RZR metric as well. Bob, I don’t think you’ve really understood Dave’s argument. Once we combine offense production (6 runs below replacement) with defensive production (15 runs above), Ellis nets the team 10 runs above an average second baseman. Replacement level (i.e. league minimum salary AAA guy you could have via rule 5 or whatever) is about 20 runs below average. That makes Ellis 30 runs or about 3 wins above replacement, which (when it’s all from offense) is worth about $12-15M a year in a five year contract. But Ellis particular skill set is terribly undervalued by today’s market, so Billy Beane (who knows what almost everything in baseball is worth) just got two years for Ellis for the price on one year of a guy who’s skillset is all about a bat. Have you noticed how much A’s pitchers seems to exceed their FIP this season? That’s because the A’s have several very good infielders on their team (and also partly their pitcher’s park home field.)

I noticed that Rotoworld canned this move by Beane the other day. Immediately went to look at Ellis RZR at the THT. Sure enough: Ellis stands out as among the best defensive 2B’s alive by the (inferior but still helpful) RZR metric as well.

]]>