The Harangutan
The Cincinnati Reds may have struggled to compete over the last several seasons, but there were still several bright spots. One of these positives was the right arm of ace Aaron Harang. A former Athletics prospect, Harang emerged as a durable and extremely effective pitcher for the Reds, compiling some of the best numbers in the senior circuit from 2005-07. In that span, he made 32+ starts each year and amassed a minimum of 211.2 innings pitched. His K/9 rose from 6.93 to 8.47, while his BB/9 with intentional walks removed dropped from 2.04 to 1.80 before settling in at 1.90 in 2007.
Harang’s WHIP of 1.27 in 2005-06 dropped to 1.14 in 2007, and his strand rate ranged from 73.8%-74.6%, three marks well above average. Additionally, his ERA decreased from 3.83 to 3.73. Unfortunately for Harang, his HR/9 rose from 0.94 to 1.09, and his FIP “rose” from 3.67 to 3.71. In 2005-06, his FIP was better than the ERA, however in 2007, they were essentially identical. Regardless, it is hard to argue that he seemed on the verge of several all star berths as one of the best righthanded pitches in the National League.
This season, however, he suffered a setback. In 30 games, 29 of which were starts, he only tossed 184.1 innings, and experienced worse numbers pretty much across the board. His K/9 decreased by one full strikeout to 7.47, while his unintentional walk rate rose to 2.20. This increase in walks, coupled with a .317 BABIP resulted in a 1.38 WHIP, his highest in any full season. Additionally, his 4.78 ERA and 4.79 FIP were significantly worse than anything over the previous four seasons. How did this happen? Well, it’s easy to point to a lack of luck, but was that really the case?
Harang’s HR/9 skyrocketed to 1.71, way up from the 1.09 in 2007, so perhaps his performance really was the result of bad luck. Unfortunately, his dropoff in strikeouts also contributed to the higher FIP, as his walk rate did not necessareily rise that much. The .317 BABIP, as well, while much higher than average, is actually in the same range as his marks in 2004-06, when he was able to produce quality seasons, and his strand rate of 73.6% is not only above average but right in line with his 2005-07 rates. And even though the HR/9 rose to 1.71, his HR/FB was just 13.9%; while 13.9% is definitely above the average of 10-11%, it was not as if this rate soared to 17-20% or anything along those lines. One way to check if poor luck with regard to the home run aspect of controllable skills affects the FIP is to look at the normalized version of the metric. Via The Hardball Times, Harang’s xFIP was 4.38, meaning yes, he was a bit unlucky, but still significantly worse than 2005-07.
This past season saw his highest percentage of flyballs in a full season at 44%, so he threw more balls in the air, and a higher percentage than usual left the park. This should regress moving forward, but the dropoff in strikeouts does signal some sense of a dropoff. He lost some velocity on the fastball, but nothing drastic enough to claim a large role in the much poorer 2008 campaign. Is Harang as bad as he performed in 2008? No, not by a longshot, but there was a serious performance decline here that cannot be chalked up solely as bad luck, which could have to do with some type of injury, or could signal the start of his decline. He will likely be much better next season, but the potential award winner from 2005-07 may be gone for good.
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Harang really started to struggle around the same time Dusty Baker used him for 4 IP in relief (2H, 0 R, 1 BB, 9 K) and then ran him out to start on three days rest. Mechanically he lost it a bit, using an even shorter stride than normal and leaving a lot of pitches up in the zone and a loss of velocity across the board. The result was a lot more fly balls than usual and a lot more homers. He ended up losing month on the DL.
The loss of effectiveness in 2008 was not likely due to an actual loss of skill but rather of a mechanical issue either resulting in or from a lingering injury. I expect him to be back to his 05-07 form in 2009.
If you separate Harangs starts into segments – the 11 starts before the relief appearance, the 10 starts after the relief appearance, and then the final 8 starts of the season – it becomes much clearer that the injury was affecting him. Rick is right that his mechanics were off a bit while he was hurt, he didn’t look as smooth or as powerful for a long stretch during the middle of the season. He looked better after his DL stint, though he still allowed too many fly balls and his K-rate was down. Hopefully an off-season to get fully healthy will get him back to his 2005-2007 form.
The worst part about the relief appearance is that it didn’t have to happen. Dusty Baker used Josh Fogg, his only remaining long reliever, to start the bottom of the 11th inning with a 2-run lead. Fogg allowed two singles and then got two outs while allowing one run before Dusty replaced him with Bill Bray, the last man left in the bullpen. Bray gave up the tying run and the game went on another 7 innings. If Baker had either started the inning with Bray or let his long reliever pitch to more than 4 batters, Harang probably doesn’t come out of the bullpen and maybe he doesn’t get hurt by pitching 3 times in 7 days.
I agree with Slyde. The point at which he got hurt was clear and he spent 4 weeks on the DL because of it. Harang’s decline was definitely injury related. If healthy, I’d expect a return to form….but who knows if he’s going to be fully healthy ?
Can we stop bifurcating “luck” and “non-luck”? I am afraid that is NOT the way it works. Every component of a pitcher’s performance has random fluctuation, some more than others. It is NOT an either/or. For example, all of a pitcher’s rates (K,BB,HR) are binomials and therefore, even if the true talent rate were exactly the same at all times and from year to year, we would see the normal binomial fluctuations associated with them, which are considerable.
Just looking that the basic rates (hits, HR, BB, and K) the ONLY thing that changed this year was his HR rate – considerably. He K rate went down from 07, but considering that ALL pitchers’ K rates are expected to go down every year (the true talent), AND considering regression toward the mean (historically, he is well-above average in K rate, so we expect it to go down at any given point in the future via regression), and considering that his 07 K rate was the highest of his career (in fact, his 08 K rate was better than in 04 and 05), his K rate was EXACTLY where it was supposed to be. Before you start talking about a certain of a pitcher’s components “going up or down” you need to look at a projection. That will tell you whether it ended up where it was SUPPOSED to be, which is the only thing that counts when discussing whether someone’s career has taken an unusual turn. Other wise you fall into the trap, as I have discussed on The Book blog several times, of thinking and stating that a pitcher with an ERA in year 1 of 3.50 and an ERA of 4.00 in year 2 “got worse” or “regressed” (not in the mathematical sense – in the vernacular one). He didn’t. His true talent likely remained exactly the same.
Without looking at pitch speed, movement, location, etc., while our estimate of Harang’s true talent of course changed (for the worse), and our estimate of a player’s true talent generally changes by the second, the only thing that is really going to change in our projection is his HR rate. Everything else will be almost exactly the same as our pre-season projection, which as I said, is the only thing that counts in a discussion like this.