Just looking that the basic rates (hits, HR, BB, and K) the ONLY thing that changed this year was his HR rate – considerably. He K rate went down from 07, but considering that ALL pitchers’ K rates are expected to go down every year (the true talent), AND considering regression toward the mean (historically, he is well-above average in K rate, so we expect it to go down at any given point in the future via regression), and considering that his 07 K rate was the highest of his career (in fact, his 08 K rate was better than in 04 and 05), his K rate was EXACTLY where it was supposed to be. Before you start talking about a certain of a pitcher’s components “going up or down” you need to look at a projection. That will tell you whether it ended up where it was SUPPOSED to be, which is the only thing that counts when discussing whether someone’s career has taken an unusual turn. Other wise you fall into the trap, as I have discussed on The Book blog several times, of thinking and stating that a pitcher with an ERA in year 1 of 3.50 and an ERA of 4.00 in year 2 “got worse” or “regressed” (not in the mathematical sense – in the vernacular one). He didn’t. His true talent likely remained exactly the same.

Without looking at pitch speed, movement, location, etc., while our estimate of Harang’s true talent of course changed (for the worse), and our estimate of a player’s true talent generally changes by the second, the only thing that is really going to change in our projection is his HR rate. Everything else will be almost exactly the same as our pre-season projection, which as I said, is the only thing that counts in a discussion like this.

The worst part about the relief appearance is that it didn’t have to happen. Dusty Baker used Josh Fogg, his only remaining long reliever, to start the bottom of the 11th inning with a 2-run lead. Fogg allowed two singles and then got two outs while allowing one run before Dusty replaced him with Bill Bray, the last man left in the bullpen. Bray gave up the tying run and the game went on another 7 innings. If Baker had either started the inning with Bray or let his long reliever pitch to more than 4 batters, Harang probably doesn’t come out of the bullpen and maybe he doesn’t get hurt by pitching 3 times in 7 days.

The loss of effectiveness in 2008 was not likely due to an actual loss of skill but rather of a mechanical issue either resulting in or from a lingering injury. I expect him to be back to his 05-07 form in 2009.