Comments on: The Howry signing http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-howry-signing/ Daily baseball statistical analysis and commentary Sun, 21 Mar 2010 07:16:16 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.2 hourly 1 By: pt http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-howry-signing/#comment-55342 pt Fri, 05 Dec 2008 21:38:29 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=1507#comment-55342 DENKER IS GONE! wow. DENKER IS GONE! wow.

]]> By: Jack http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-howry-signing/#comment-55208 Jack Thu, 04 Dec 2008 01:11:27 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=1507#comment-55208 Lewis, Winn, Sandoval, Denker, and Rowand plus Edgar Renteria (due for a rebound) plus maybe one more veteran hitter via a trade (Derrek Lee perhaps?) and all of a sudden the Giants would have a respectable offense to complement their sick starting pitching. They already have gone and made two nice gambles on relievers, and they are still dark horses in the Sabathia race. If a all these things happen, I don't see how the Giants won't compete for the NL West title. Lewis, Winn, Sandoval, Denker, and Rowand plus Edgar Renteria (due for a rebound) plus maybe one more veteran hitter via a trade (Derrek Lee perhaps?) and all of a sudden the Giants would have a respectable offense to complement their sick starting pitching.

They already have gone and made two nice gambles on relievers, and they are still dark horses in the Sabathia race. If a all these things happen, I don’t see how the Giants won’t compete for the NL West title.

]]> By: Jack http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-howry-signing/#comment-55207 Jack Thu, 04 Dec 2008 00:53:36 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=1507#comment-55207 Spot on China Brown. I was gonna come in and say that as a Cubs fan, and having seen Howry pitch for the past 3 years, it was pretty apparent this past year that he lost a little velocity, and subsequently confidence in his fastball. If Howry's loss in velocity was permanent, and his approach stays the same, I think there is a chance he'll continue being a pretty mediocre reliever. With that being said, I think it was foolish of the Cubs to not at least offer him arbitration. Even if Howry's velocity doesn't reappear, there is still plenty of room for those numbers to regress to the mean, in which case he'd be a pretty solid reliever to have on a one year deal. I think it this one could end up going either way, but regardless I'd say he's a solid gamble. Spot on China Brown. I was gonna come in and say that as a Cubs fan, and having seen Howry pitch for the past 3 years, it was pretty apparent this past year that he lost a little velocity, and subsequently confidence in his fastball. If Howry’s loss in velocity was permanent, and his approach stays the same, I think there is a chance he’ll continue being a pretty mediocre reliever.

With that being said, I think it was foolish of the Cubs to not at least offer him arbitration. Even if Howry’s velocity doesn’t reappear, there is still plenty of room for those numbers to regress to the mean, in which case he’d be a pretty solid reliever to have on a one year deal.

I think it this one could end up going either way, but regardless I’d say he’s a solid gamble.

]]> By: JH http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-howry-signing/#comment-55201 JH Wed, 03 Dec 2008 23:21:29 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=1507#comment-55201 Really? My bad. Really? My bad.

]]> By: Aaron B. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-howry-signing/#comment-55199 Aaron B. Wed, 03 Dec 2008 23:11:11 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=1507#comment-55199 Oh, that Denker remark pains me. The Padres got him off of waivers in October. oh well, at least Eugenio Velez is still around.... Oh, that Denker remark pains me. The Padres got him off of waivers in October. oh well, at least Eugenio Velez is still around….

]]> By: JH http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-howry-signing/#comment-55196 JH Wed, 03 Dec 2008 23:01:33 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=1507#comment-55196 I was going to say something snarky about how now all they have to do is find someone who can actually hit, but then I looked, and an offensive core of Lewis, Winn, Sandoval, Denker, and Rowand is actually not a bad one to build around. Lacks premium talent, and still a bit heavy on broken down veterans, but the Giants are in way better shape for next year than I realized. I was going to say something snarky about how now all they have to do is find someone who can actually hit, but then I looked, and an offensive core of Lewis, Winn, Sandoval, Denker, and Rowand is actually not a bad one to build around. Lacks premium talent, and still a bit heavy on broken down veterans, but the Giants are in way better shape for next year than I realized.

]]> By: China Brown http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-howry-signing/#comment-55193 China Brown Wed, 03 Dec 2008 22:45:35 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=1507#comment-55193 Ok, so at first I read this, threw up in my mouth a little bit and thought it's impossible for someone to think Howry is a good signing. Then I went and looked at his LD% hoping that might explain a massive rise in BABIP but he really did hold steady. It is true that his controllable numbers did hold, making his year appear more unlucky than bad. It is also true that I spent most of the summer watching/listening to Howry, being utterly unsurprised with each and every gopherball. The bomb he served up to the Hebrew Hammer on the last game of the season really helped the NL playoffs fall into place... which didn't really work out all that well for the Cubs. So, take everything I say as more of the musings of a bitter and spiteful dude. Anyway, in my efforts to identify something that could indicate that maybe he's really just not a good pitcher anymore, I did find something interesting. He's no spring chicken, turning 36 next summer. His pitch selection and velocity were markedly different in 08. Year Velocity %Fastballs %Sliders 08 91.2 74.8% 23.1% 07 92.3 86.2% 9.7% 06 92.8 82.8% 14.7% 05 92.8 82.6% 15.6% So he lost a fair amount of zip on the fastball and decided to go to the slider way more often, potentially to compensate. It seems possible to me to think that this variation explains why he was serving up so many more homers than normal. If he continues losing velocity will he keep going to the slider? I'd say it's likely since he's pretty far on the wrong side of 30. Ok, so at first I read this, threw up in my mouth a little bit and thought it’s impossible for someone to think Howry is a good signing.

Then I went and looked at his LD% hoping that might explain a massive rise in BABIP but he really did hold steady.

It is true that his controllable numbers did hold, making his year appear more unlucky than bad. It is also true that I spent most of the summer watching/listening to Howry, being utterly unsurprised with each and every gopherball. The bomb he served up to the Hebrew Hammer on the last game of the season really helped the NL playoffs fall into place… which didn’t really work out all that well for the Cubs. So, take everything I say as more of the musings of a bitter and spiteful dude.

Anyway, in my efforts to identify something that could indicate that maybe he’s really just not a good pitcher anymore, I did find something interesting. He’s no spring chicken, turning 36 next summer. His pitch selection and velocity were markedly different in 08.

Year Velocity %Fastballs %Sliders
08 91.2 74.8% 23.1%
07 92.3 86.2% 9.7%
06 92.8 82.8% 14.7%
05 92.8 82.6% 15.6%

So he lost a fair amount of zip on the fastball and decided to go to the slider way more often, potentially to compensate. It seems possible to me to think that this variation explains why he was serving up so many more homers than normal. If he continues losing velocity will he keep going to the slider? I’d say it’s likely since he’s pretty far on the wrong side of 30.

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