Comments on: The Kevin Gregg Trade

By: Doc

Doc — Sun, 29 Mar 2009 22:25:09 +0000

It’s official, Lou says Gregg will the the Cubs closer. I have to thank all the “cub experts” for driving up the ADP of Marmol, allowing Gregg to fall to a more reasonable spot.
While the numbers suggest Gregg will be less effective than Wood was, he’s got the job. This will drop Marmol’s value considerably.

By: Andre Laier

Andre Laier — Fri, 14 Nov 2008 17:34:58 +0000

Of course that’s what they are going to say in november. You don’t discourage competition. We aren’t talking about the bears here who have a past of doing just that. But reality is that Marmol will close and Gregg will be one of the setup men. I still expect Hendry to go after another middle-reliever after he’s addressed the more important areas of concern: offense and signing Dempster.

By: Isaac

Isaac — Fri, 14 Nov 2008 04:54:12 +0000

I don’t think he missed the boat. I heard Hendry do 2 different radio shows in which he stated that it will be a competition between the two and Lou also seems to think that Marmol is more valuable as a seventh/eight inning guy. He might be right.

By: Tim T

Tim T — Fri, 14 Nov 2008 04:01:55 +0000

You missed the boat on this one .
I think the plan is to have Marmol close and Gregg be his set up man.
If you looked at this stat of Greggs it makes sense.
Gregg has stranded 32 of his 36 inherited runners, an 88.9 percent success rate.
Sounds like he’s better suited for the set up role.
Part of the plan of letting Wood walk is giving Marmol the shot at the closer role. So this isn’t a bad deal, if Marmol can’t handle the closer role for some reason they have a decent guy to fall back on.

By: Mark

Mark — Fri, 14 Nov 2008 02:59:04 +0000

umm yeah hello there,,,either he is trade bait in the Peavy deal or he sets up for Marmol who will now be the closer….Gregg will not be our closer,,get serious

By: ajwalsh

ajwalsh — Fri, 14 Nov 2008 01:58:16 +0000

The argument about wins added from picking up a free agent left-handed bat is spot on. Kerry Wood was not the Cubs’ best reliever in 2008, but as of now, the best left-handed hitters on the roster are Micah Hoffpauir, Mike Fontenot and Kosuke Fukudome.

The downgrade from Wood to Gregg should allow for a much more substantial offensive upgrade, in either right field or the middle infield.

By: Andre Laier

Andre Laier — Fri, 14 Nov 2008 01:56:43 +0000

Paleaseeee! If anybody out there believes that the cubs are bringing in Gregg to be closer you don’t follow the cubs. The closer is going to be Marmol. And I would expect the cubs to try and add another setup guy because of the imminent departure of Howry. Seeing Wood leave is definitly sad, but the cubs have much more important areas to address. Hendry’s logic seems sound. Gregg will be one of the setup guys, which he should be able handle. Whoever wrote this article obviously doesn’t follow the cubs closely enough. The fact that he didn’t even mention Marmol is quite startling.

By: Isaac

Isaac — Fri, 14 Nov 2008 01:31:43 +0000

acerimusdux, the reason he didn’t do well in A+ is because they tried him as a starter in A+ ball but he then returned to the closer role in AA and in Kevin Goldstien words, dominated.

By: acerimusdux

acerimusdux — Fri, 14 Nov 2008 01:20:12 +0000

For me this hinges on how much Ceda is really worth. If he can be as good as Gregg soon, it’s a bad trade. But, that’s not exactly a sure thing. Looking at his numbers last season. while he had a solid 2.08 ERA in AA, that was with a 2.77 FIP, and in only 30.3 IP. In A+, he hadn’t fared as well before the promotion, with a 3.97 FIP.

Also, from his splits, it looks like he was very tough on RH hitters (2.04 FIP in AA), but struggled vs. lefties (4.87 FIP in AA). Gregg for his career has been equally effective against both LH and RH bats, so this might be one difference. As for how his performance overall would translate to the majors, however, his MLEs for AA suggest he might be able to survive, translating to a 3.98 FIP with a 1.40 WHIP, a 4.2 BBp and a 9.3 SO9.

Interestingly, that’s not that far off what Kevin Gregg has done over the last 2 season in Florida–a 3.86 FIP, 1.25 WHIP, 4.5 BB9, and 8.55 SO9.

The very big difference is that Gregg at this point has a proven record of a similar level of performance over 6 season covering over 400 IP. If you are projecting this for Ceda, it is based on only 30.3 IP at AA last year, after being significantly worse in 54.3 IP at a lower level.

If Gregg costs the Cubs 1-2 wins vs. an elite closer, I’m not sure that’s a bad trade off. Given the asking price this off season for elite closers, I wonder if they couldn’t perhaps add 1-2 wins elsewhere for less money. If Ceda has much value though, the Cubs could have probably signed a type B reliever of similar abilities to Gregg (say Lyon or Affeldt), for only a $1M-2M more per year, and held on to Ceda.

So were the Cubs selling high on Ceda, or was he worth spending a bit more to hold onto? Is he really going to be near as good as Gregg any time soon?

By: Isaac

Isaac — Fri, 14 Nov 2008 00:59:35 +0000

Colin, I meant that the Cubs didn’t bring in an adequate replacement for the Wood of the 2008 season. Whatever he does next year is irrelevant. The Cubs are filling a position which produced 1.17 WPA/LI, 84K and a measly eighteen walks(in the games that Wood pitched) last season with a pitcher that will be lucky to come even close to that number. The fact that Gregg might be the equal of Wood next year is irrelevant. Hendry needs to find someone that can be, in 2009, as good as the 2008 version of Wood. That person is most likely not Kevin Gregg.