The Long Hello: Some Notes on Luck
Warning: what follows is very nearly about baseball.
Perhaps the Reader has heard that story, apocryphal or not, about the early century art-goer who, upon observing the less-than-representative figures of Mister Pablo Picasso’s paintings, said something along the lines of: “That’s not art! My child could do that!”
Perhaps the Reader hasn’t heard that story. Either way, the point remains: Picasso’s work has a playful sensibility that one could certainly construe as childish and, hence, easy. Picasso — who, if Jonathan Richman is any authority, never got called an asshole — had a clever response to this, saying (again, perhaps apocryphally), “When I was young I could paint like Raphael. It took my whole life to paint like a child.”
If the Good Reader has a similar reaction — i.e. “My child could do that!” — to the work I’ll be providing to FanGraphs, I won’t be very surprised. Which, that’s way less to say that I’m a genius-level-master-of-the-genre like Picasso and way more to say that I’m less smart than the other people who contribute here and it’s pretty obvious.
Messrs. Appelman and Cameron have admitted me on a trial basis to these electronic pages as “a change of pace”. I’ve been too frightened to ask — for fear of messing things up — to ask exactly what that means. My sense is that I’m basically allowed to do whatever I want (like, I dunno, write an entire article about how, in the future, I’ll be writing other articles) so long as the word “baseball” appears somewhere. Other than that, I’ve essentially been given free reign to write pieces — like I’ve done some other places — to write pieces that (hopefully) appeal to the sort of person inclined to point his or her web browser to the best independent baseball analysis site on the internet.
Translation: I’ve won the Baseball Nerd lottery.
I say this less to brag and more to prove a point*. As the Average Reader of FanGraphs is very probably college-educated, literate, and generally sharp as a tack, you might very well feel like those critics of Picasso. Maybe your kids couldn’t do this exactly**, but you, reading this right now, almost certainly could. In other words, there’s no good reason in the world why I — or any one person, in particular — should be allowed to do this.
*I swear, just wait.
**Or, okay, maybe they could.
Well, there is one reason: luck.
American Funnymen Will Ferrell and Larry David have both discussed on NPR the role of luck in their respective careers and in the lives of actors, in general. David said during one recent installment of Weekend Edition: “There’s a tremendous element of luck in show business, especially when it comes to acting. There are great actors out there that nobody knows about and probably have had to quit because they couldn’t make a living.” Now, whether those other actors are/were as talented as either Ferrell or David, we don’t know, but the fact remains: there’s not always a perfect correlation between talent and success.
Writing is no different. Consider: a couple friends of mine, Jed Berry and Reif Larsen, have, of late, found success as honest-to-goodness, real-live novelists — and deservedly so, I’d say.
Now consider another friend of mine, Sean Casey*. I feel very comfortable saying that Sean — whose literary voice I’d describe as a mixture of Mickey Avalon and GK Chesterton — is the best author working in English**. Sean has had some stories published in McSweeney’s — no small feat, of course — but has yet to find the same sort of commercial success as either Jed or Reif. You could never say it was due to a lack excellence in re his prose stylings, though. (Or, I guess you could say it, but if you did, I’d be forced to put on these here brass knuckles.)
*Yes, like the Mayor himself. And, what’s more, is that it’s actually Sean Thomas Casey. Also like that Mayor.
**A point I’d be make even more vigorously were I able to read.
Understanding the role or contribution of luck as distinct from true skill: this is more or less one of the current missions of sabermetrics. Stats like xFIP, tRA, PrOPS, third-order wins — their intent is to understand not necessarily what did happen but to understand what probably should have happened or what would usually happen and what is most likely to happen in the future. Teams that have adopted sabermetric analysis — in tandem, of course, with traditional scouting — have succeeded*. They understand, unlike Bill Bavasi during his post-2007 spending spree, that results can be deceiving if the peripherals suggests something else.
*There’s a book about this called Moneyball. It’s kinda underground, though, so you’ve probably never read it.
Sky Kalkman writes on his profile over at Beyond the Boxscore that he roots for “smart organizations and underrated players.” My guess is that anyone who points his internet browser to FanGraphs feels roughly the same way. The sabermetric community is one generally dedicated to fairness, thoroughness, use of reason, and curiosity — a number of qualities that haven’t always existed in baseball management.
Even recently, how painful has it been, for example, to watch Jose Frigging Vidro play first base for the Mariners while Russell Branyan toiled in four corner obscurity in Milwaukee (and Nashville)? Or to watch (Sir!) Sidney Ponson throw a pitch ever?
Woody Allen says at the end of Annie Hall that we’re always trying to get things to come out perfect in art because it’s so difficult in real life. My impression is that, if we can accept Allen’s as a definition of art, then sabermetrics is absolutelydefinitelyassuredly an art. And, just as Kalkman notes, it’s an art whose practitioners are bent on seeing justice done — in baseball, if nowhere else.
I’m aware that right now, as a Baseballing Writer, with this opportunity to write for FanGraphs, I’m about as lucky as it gets. Were I a pitcher, my opponent BABIP and HR/F would be below league average. I’d be undeservedly in line for Cy Young consideration. I’d basically be the Barry Zito of 2002 of sportswriting (which, okay, he wasn’t bad, but he also wasn’t this guy).
Here’s to hoping that, when things regress to the mean, I’m able to hold down a spot in the rotation.
19
Did you pay royalties for abuse of the Posterisk?
I’m not entirely certain that it was Joe Posnanski who invented the footnote.
Welcome Carson, glad to have you on board.
As a baseball diehard and a writer myself, I’m wicked jealous, but I absolutely look forward to your future pieces.
That was dangerously close to being entertaining and intelligent outside of just the baseball content. Well done.
A little Ken Arneson-like.
Anyone who humbly cites the role of luck when discussing their good fortune immediately piques my interest and earns my respect (not that what I think about anything really matters…).
We do not live in a neat, deterministic world, and while baseball can (for the most part) be tamed by statistics, much of the important bits of life cannot. Thanks for (implicitly) acknowledging as much. I greatly look forward to your contributions.
BTW, this is the first post I’ve ever commented on despite being a daily reader since the start of this season.
Cheers!
I like to think of you less as a “change of pace” guy and more like someone who messes with the reader’s eye level. Either way, you keep the opposition off balance.
Also, nice work.
Looks like someone is really in love with the sound of his own prose.
PDX FTW!
I’m shocked and interested in The Mayor’s writing. As a guy who dabbles in everything, fiction writing included, I am extremely interested in what Casey’s got to say. And I think it’s just hella cool.
In order to properly welcome you to Fangraphs, I absolutely must leave a pedantic, prickish, grammar-nitpicking comment for you:
You’ve been given free rein, not free reign!
Seriously, though, welcome. I’m very interested to see what comes of this.
Aw, fuddruckers. I’m so embarrassed.
Continue to nitpick in the future, please.
Thumbs up for the JoJo reference. Welcome aboard.
Holy F’ing Crap.
Cistulli, how did you end up being a bigger baseball nerd than your spors-fanatic science-geek former roommate? One thing is for sure: you can write and I sure as hell cannot.
I am wildly excited for the Cistulli era on Fangraphs. Luck or otherwise, no one deserves this more than Carson.
Congrtulations bro – I’m really impressed. I will be reading religiously.
peace
d
PS A Reid Larsen reference? My day is complete. Elementary School and High School all wrapped into one big happy baseball blog.
wow… that should say “reif” larsen.
Divakar! Holy frig!
Well played on that stab at Zito at the end. I was looking at Zito’s stats earlier in the day and wondering how he got that contract with SF. His FIP was unbelievably high in those CY Young type seasons.
This might be a question for the elias sports bureau, but has someone consistently out-pitched their FIP like that before?
PS The other article you wrote, the one at thenewenthusiast.com, is fantastic. Do more of that plz sir.
Many don’t know this but there are classes of pitchers who can outpitch what their FIP says they can do.
They include pitchers who can keep their BABIP below the league .300 mean that most pitchers regress to. Tom Tippett in his response to DIPS, showed that while DIPS is accurate for the majority of pitchers in major leaguer history, there are classifications of pitchers who defy the rules of DIPS, one of which he named “crafty lefties” who are able to keep their BABIP low.
Tom Tango wrote a comment somewhere on his blog that it takes about 7 seasons worth of data for a pitcher to accumulate enough innings to statisitcally significantly prove to have a BABIP that is below the .300 mean. With about 9 seasons worth of data in, Barry Zito has a career BABIP of .275.
Ironically, though, his BABIP over the past two seasons is approximately .300. Until this season, he has not had two seasons in a row where his BABIP for the two seasons average to approximately .300. (On Fangraphs, it is about .300; on baseball-reference.com, it is about .295)
However, he has 9 more starts to go and he is on one of his patented second half runs where he pitches like an ace of the staff. For his career, his second half ERA is nearly a run less than his first half ERA. More pertinently, he has done that his two seasons with SF, and on a great start for 2009. His BABIP first half was .293; second half is currently .287, according to baseball-reference.com.
Apparently, he lost his mojo at AT&T last season. In 2007, his BABIP road and home were career good, but in 2008 and 2009, his BABIP in SF was now around the .300 league average while his road BABIP was still around his career mean of .275. Last season he was way over with a .323 BABIP in SF, but is more in line with the league mean with a .303 BABIP.
Speaking of luck, found another great article on Bannister and sabrmetrics. He discusses xFIP in this one.
http://delawareonline.com/article/20090809/SPORTS01/908090370/1002&referrer=NEWSFRONTCAROUSEL
If you find yourself in a tight spot just ask “What Would Brian Bannister Do?”
and remember that sometimes paying attention to all the advanced metrics can actually help to improve your performance!
As a follow-up, I wish this kind of stuff would get more coverage. I love reading up on stats(no life), but when I get into a discussion or argument with a more casual fan, I can’t cite half of the stuff I read. It’s great to know someone who actually plays the game is into this stuff and has actually applied it to his own game. That’s the best purpose of statistical research, I think.
Boy that’s a lot of pop culture references. Gave up after the third paragraph.
Get this guy out of here. I’m sorry Carson…but you appear to be the worst replacement level writer available. Fangraphs doesn’t need a new Christina Kahrl. She goes onto useless rants over at BP. This is not BP. This is Fangraphs. This is the best of the bunch. Please…give a more formidable baseball analyst a shot here.
I love Christina Kahrl’s articles, and I loved this one too. Diversification of the content will only add to the site, and satiate the needs of a wider fan base. It’s a big site and there’s certainly room for everyone.
Great stuff, and I’ll be looking forward to your contributions in the future!
Like Nick said–way too much. Chris Berman’s nicknames come to mind. One or two is clever…………..
Though I have to agree with Teddy Ballgame (based on this article, anyway), I’m at least interested to see where you go with this. And right on with the Modern Lovers reference. Congrats on the new gig.
What are these non-graph pictures doing on fg?
I’m a pitcher now!
Fangraphs has jumped the shark.
“the Average Reader of FanGraphs is very probably college-educated, literate, and generally sharp as a tack…”
I went to art school, dude. Watch it.
During one of my ritualistic reading regimes, I started thinkin’. Thinkin’ about the art of writing, and the art of baseball. All of this thinking lead to a pretty profound conclusion, something I’d never really thought about.
Baseball articles that focus on statistics are really bloody boring. Once abbreviations for batted ball statistics enter into the equation, it’s game over. It’s almost impossible to put together a well written piece that’s both informative and an enjoyable read.
If only all of the articles on this site could just include a chart & graph, followed by 5 or 6 paragraphs of witty, intellectual, baseball banter – dat’d be awesome. We can all do the math ourselves anyways, right?
I enjoyed the piece is what i’m trying to say. You’d be a fantasy god if you could find the perfect balance between teh funny and teh baseball.
I wish I could write half as well as Cistulli. Excellent read. Can’t remember the last time I finished an article with the first word on my mind, “Wow!”
Nice intro article, though like others, I was overwhelmed at first. I started getting it after a second reading. I like your overall style but like the other commenter noted about Chris Berman, it can get to be too much.
But anything that refers to Woody Allen is alright with me, I look forward to reading your future missives with interest. Good luck and congratulations.
“And right on with the Modern Lovers reference. Congrats on the new gig.”
See, that’s the problem. Completely unnecessary shoehorning in of a hip reference so people will go, “Hey you like this band/movie that I and many other people also like, cool!”, and I guess it was successful, so what do I know. John Buccigross would be a better reference point here than Chris Berman.
I don’t know what this was…but I liked it! Not sure why it is on FanGraphs, though.
Keep ‘em coming.
Carson,
Congratulations on getting this job! I’m happy for you. Reading you on this site promises to be amusing. Speaking of which, that last photo was from Love and Death – a very underrated film.
Fielding
You know, once I got past the prominent picture of the dancing guy (which: ???) I found it to be a pretty well-written, solid introduction. It leans towards the Kahrl-esque, which is not always my thing, but there’s enough there to make me wonder what’s coming next.
Man, Chesterton had some bad teeth. That’s unfortunate. What’s not unfortunate? This article.
Like a bloop fisted over a second baseman, there is some luck involved here, but you had to get to the show and put the bat on the ball.
Well done Cistulli
Also, one more thing. More comments here than anything you’ve ever written before.
Carson Cistulli: Not alienating people since August 2009
This article needs more R graphs and mysql tables.
Wait a minute. When did Drunk Jays Fans get a FanGraphs makeover? Can we get a flagrant foul (wrong sport?) on the excessive use of*
*footnotes
and — uhm — em-dashes? Ugh.
Where can I find books by Sean Casey?
Good !