Comments on: The McLouth Deal http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-mclouth-deal/ Daily baseball statistical analysis and commentary Thu, 18 Mar 2010 10:39:33 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.2 hourly 1 By: Alireza http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-mclouth-deal/#comment-79776 Alireza Mon, 08 Jun 2009 23:27:55 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=5297#comment-79776 I don't see how anyone can really rag on this guy. Sure, his speed means he has been miscast as a CFer, but he has improved significantly this year (-1.4 UZR/150) and he is a plus defender at a corner. He is an incredibly solid offensive player and he is incredibly underpaid, which allows payroll flexibility. A guy with clear 20/20 ability and results combined with a .350+ OBP is nothing to sneeze at and assuredly a welcome addition to a team like the Braves that gets nothing out of its OF. Would you really rather have Jeff Francoeur playing everyday than this guy? I don’t see how anyone can really rag on this guy. Sure, his speed means he has been miscast as a CFer, but he has improved significantly this year (-1.4 UZR/150) and he is a plus defender at a corner. He is an incredibly solid offensive player and he is incredibly underpaid, which allows payroll flexibility. A guy with clear 20/20 ability and results combined with a .350+ OBP is nothing to sneeze at and assuredly a welcome addition to a team like the Braves that gets nothing out of its OF. Would you really rather have Jeff Francoeur playing everyday than this guy?

]]> By: Tyler http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-mclouth-deal/#comment-79496 Tyler Fri, 05 Jun 2009 21:14:51 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=5297#comment-79496 Because he'll be a .830 OPS guy with a +.200 ISO who has been fantastic in LF for his career (SSS) to go along with his ~90% success rate in stolen bases. Because he’ll be a .830 OPS guy with a +.200 ISO who has been fantastic in LF for his career (SSS) to go along with his ~90% success rate in stolen bases.

]]> By: Wally http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-mclouth-deal/#comment-79488 Wally Fri, 05 Jun 2009 20:26:17 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=5297#comment-79488 Well I don't really have a problem with taking out IBB. Though they obviously have value and have something to do with the player's talent. As far as ignoring the so called "outliers," couldn't we also say that June and August were "outliers?" And don't April and May count as part of a "larger sample size?" Basically, it all counts, and ignoring any data is, as said above, dumb. McLouth had 4 pretty great months running from August of 2007 through May of 2008. If we decided that's all we wanted to look at, how well would we have predicted McLouth? Terribly, as he's lost about .200 points of OPS since then. That's basically the same thing you and Law are advocating here, just in the opposite direction, and it rarely turns out well. McLouth is nether as good as his August 2007-May 2008 stretch, nor as bad as his June 2008-June 2009 stretch. And really since the start of the season he's matched his previous two year averages, so that June 2008-June 2009 stretch that looks so bad is just from two months, June 2008 and August 2008. I'm not sure why those matter so much more than April and May of 2008, that we should just ignore the former. Well I don’t really have a problem with taking out IBB. Though they obviously have value and have something to do with the player’s talent.

As far as ignoring the so called “outliers,” couldn’t we also say that June and August were “outliers?” And don’t April and May count as part of a “larger sample size?” Basically, it all counts, and ignoring any data is, as said above, dumb.

McLouth had 4 pretty great months running from August of 2007 through May of 2008. If we decided that’s all we wanted to look at, how well would we have predicted McLouth? Terribly, as he’s lost about .200 points of OPS since then. That’s basically the same thing you and Law are advocating here, just in the opposite direction, and it rarely turns out well.

McLouth is nether as good as his August 2007-May 2008 stretch, nor as bad as his June 2008-June 2009 stretch. And really since the start of the season he’s matched his previous two year averages, so that June 2008-June 2009 stretch that looks so bad is just from two months, June 2008 and August 2008. I’m not sure why those matter so much more than April and May of 2008, that we should just ignore the former.

]]> By: Matt J. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-mclouth-deal/#comment-79460 Matt J. Fri, 05 Jun 2009 18:37:39 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=5297#comment-79460 Wally - Not sure there's problem with Klaw's analysis; he was simply pointing out that McLouth's early numbers from last year were most likely an outlier given his performance over a larger sample size. Also, what's the problem with taking out his IBB? If we're trying to get an objective look at a player, why would we include a statistic that is based on the discretion of the opposing manager? Like Klaw and some others here, I'm not ready to declare McLouth a "nice bat" until some more data is in. Wally – Not sure there’s problem with Klaw’s analysis; he was simply pointing out that McLouth’s early numbers from last year were most likely an outlier given his performance over a larger sample size. Also, what’s the problem with taking out his IBB? If we’re trying to get an objective look at a player, why would we include a statistic that is based on the discretion of the opposing manager?

Like Klaw and some others here, I’m not ready to declare McLouth a “nice bat” until some more data is in.

]]> By: Wally http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-mclouth-deal/#comment-79443 Wally Fri, 05 Jun 2009 16:26:14 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=5297#comment-79443 Yeah, looking at the most recent data is generally a good thing, but ignoring older data, after some convient cut-off, is dumb. I'm surprised KLaw would do that, he generally does a very good job in analyzing players/trades/trends, but this was a little much. Yeah, looking at the most recent data is generally a good thing, but ignoring older data, after some convient cut-off, is dumb. I’m surprised KLaw would do that, he generally does a very good job in analyzing players/trades/trends, but this was a little much.

]]> By: Wally http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-mclouth-deal/#comment-79442 Wally Fri, 05 Jun 2009 16:23:23 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=5297#comment-79442 And you want us to believe every spring teams tare up their scounting reports? Only to make new ones in June of every year. That's some faulty logic if I ever saw it. Never mind thta it isn't supported by the facts. If McLouth become such an easy out after May, why did he post a .931 OPS in July last year, which also happened to be better than his May? Did teams only use their scouting reports in June and Auguest?Then in 2007 his best months where August and Septmember. I guess teams threw away their scouting reports in late July that year huh? Seriously, did you think we'd buy this BS? Do you even believe this nonsense you're spouting? And you want us to believe every spring teams tare up their scounting reports? Only to make new ones in June of every year. That’s some faulty logic if I ever saw it. Never mind thta it isn’t supported by the facts. If McLouth become such an easy out after May, why did he post a .931 OPS in July last year, which also happened to be better than his May? Did teams only use their scouting reports in June and Auguest?Then in 2007 his best months where August and Septmember. I guess teams threw away their scouting reports in late July that year huh?

Seriously, did you think we’d buy this BS? Do you even believe this nonsense you’re spouting?

]]> By: Knox http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-mclouth-deal/#comment-79430 Knox Fri, 05 Jun 2009 15:02:20 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=5297#comment-79430 Your argument is completely arbitrary and just straight up wrong. Yea, a lot of guys flourish in the spring, but some guys don't (Tex comes to mind). A lot of people wear down in the summer months and some heat up. If you are going to disqualify his top-end outliers then, if you are honest, you have to disqualify his bottom outliers. If you are honest and we do that, we end up in the same spot. The guy is a +3 player. Stop the hate. Your argument is completely arbitrary and just straight up wrong. Yea, a lot of guys flourish in the spring, but some guys don’t (Tex comes to mind). A lot of people wear down in the summer months and some heat up. If you are going to disqualify his top-end outliers then, if you are honest, you have to disqualify his bottom outliers. If you are honest and we do that, we end up in the same spot. The guy is a +3 player. Stop the hate.

]]> By: Knox http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-mclouth-deal/#comment-79429 Knox Fri, 05 Jun 2009 14:54:12 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=5297#comment-79429 The pirates are rebuilding. Giving up the future talent it would take to get the peices you are talking about would have been totally backwards. The pirates are rebuilding. Giving up the future talent it would take to get the peices you are talking about would have been totally backwards.

]]> By: robdeer http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-mclouth-deal/#comment-79425 robdeer Fri, 05 Jun 2009 14:31:03 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=5297#comment-79425 Does the +3 estimate assume he's in center going forward? I don't think that's a very sound assumption. What's the value of an .830 OPS guy with mediocre defense in a corner as opposed to in center? Does the +3 estimate assume he’s in center going forward? I don’t think that’s a very sound assumption. What’s the value of an .830 OPS guy with mediocre defense in a corner as opposed to in center?

]]> By: LG http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-mclouth-deal/#comment-79420 LG Fri, 05 Jun 2009 13:39:23 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=5297#comment-79420 I bet if you took out everyone's best 2 months last year, their numbers would not be impressive. What kind of argument is that. I don't care who brought it up originally. That is dumb. I bet if you took out everyone’s best 2 months last year, their numbers would not be impressive. What kind of argument is that. I don’t care who brought it up originally. That is dumb.

]]>