The Miguel Tejada Trade
In the blockbuster to end all blockbusters, the San Diego Padres acquired Miguel Tejada for double-A pitcher Wynn Pelzer on Thursday night. Damn hot tub, it’s not 2004 any more, and now this is more of a back-pager in the newsrag of the 2010 trade deadline. In fact, it’s such a snoozer, you wonder why the Padres even bothered.
It’s not like San Diego gave up too much – Pelzer has a 4.54 FIP on the back of a 7.84 K/9 and 4.91 BB/9 in San Antonio this year, and that number only gets worse if you neutralize it for park and luck effects relative to the rest of the relatively pitching-friendly Texas League. Then again, his career FIP against righties is exactly a full run lower (3.54), so he may have a future as a reliever if he can’t iron out his splits. In fact, he just recently moved to relief, perhaps in order to recover some of the lost zip on his fastball. Going into the season, he was Baseball America’s #7 prospect, but as Dave Cameron just reminded us today, it’s important to remember that was before he went out and put up a 1.675 WHIP in double-A and took some of the shine off. Bryan Smith has more on Pelzer here.
The bigger question is actually if Tejada is an upgrade for the Padres. Starting with defense, the answer is unclear. His career UZR/150 at shortstop is -3.6, and that number drops further if you count only his last three attempts at the position, from 2007-2009. This year, he’s even been poor at third base, with a -7.3 UZR/150 and 15 errors in what has generally been described as lackluster-at-best defense. The current thirdbaseman for the Padres, Chase Headley, sports a 9.9 career UZR/150 at third and half the errors and really shouldn’t be pushed anywhere for the veteran.
Of course, the Padres’ current shortstop, Everth Cabrera, has a negative career UZR/150, but has shown better defense in the small sample that is this year. But do the Padres really want to go with a 36-year-old who hasn’t played shortstop in a year, and hasn’t played it well in two, probably four years? Especially since Cabrera is somewhat similar offensively (.241 wOBA, .287 ZiPS RoS wOBA) to Tejada (.296 wOBA, .324 ZiPs RoS wOBA)?
Short of playing Tejada at a completely new position – second base – and pushing Jerry Hairston, Jr to shortstop (career 2.4 UZR/150), the only other option is for Tejada to serve as a utility player, which seems like the plan. At least it’s not going to cost the Padres much long term in order to strengthen their bench for the stretch run.
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I assume he’ll be playing third against LHP (Headley is hittting .194 v. lefties) and short against RHP (Cabrera is hitting .194 v. righties). Getttin one .194 hitter out of your lineup every day is probably worth the defensive downgrade.
Since when is this:
.241 wOBA, .287 ZiPS RoS wOBA)
similar to this:
296 wOBA, .324 ZiPs RoS wOBA ?
In my world, 50 points of wOBA is a significant upgrade. Cabrera has been a black hole for the Padres, and the sooner they can get him out of the lineup, the better.
Could be true, but I think Tejada will give back a ton of runs on defense at this point, and I also don’t necessarily buy the ZiPs RoS on Tejada, while I could see it on the younger Cabrera. I think my RoS would have it like .300+ish for Tejada, .280ish for Cabrera, and then you have the defense evening it out a fair amount.
Lets not forget another former steroid user is what we’re discussing. It certainly has been evident.
I’m sure you have tremendous scouting credentials and know more than the padres scouts… Please! It’s funny how many fans are commenting on tejada without having seen him play. padres fans probably haven’t seen too much orioles baseball this year, I would imagine.
Tejada has regressed this year in Baltimore, but had a .795 OPS last year as a ‘Stro and lead the NL with 46 doubles. His defense at SS leaves something to be desired, but the Pads need to swap some defense for offense somewhere, and Cabrera was their biggest hole offensively. As Hoyer pointed out, despite Tejada’s age and fading skills, he’s still a tough out. With 2 outs in a 2-1 ball game and the tying run on 2nd in the 8th inning in playoff game, having Tejada at the plate as opposed to Cabrera can make the difference in a game and a series.
Don’t underestimate the fact that Tejada is moving from the AL, as well as the toughest division in baseball, to the JV league. This doesn’t really affect his defense but the only reason he was playing 3rd in Baltimore is because they have a tremendous defensive SS.
Does Josh Bell replace Tejada immediately (i.e. – in the short-term as well as the long-term)?
@BosoxBob
That’s was my exact thought – I thought I was reading a Dave Cameron piece.