The Most Important Trade Ever
Throughout the baseball off-season, much focus is directed towards where the big name players will go. Will CC Sabathia sign with the Yankees? Do the Angels have enough to retain Mark Teixeira? Where will Derek Lowe end up? And who will give A.J. Burnett that elusive fifth year?
Then there are the lesser discussed moves, usually involving role players like Mark Loretta and Casey Blake. These players definitely add value to a team, generally sign for a fee lower than their fair market value, and help round out a roster.
After that, we have what I like to call “wonder trades” primarily because they really make us wonder either a) what was/were the GM(s) thinking? or b) what is the point of this trade? Now, I cannot speak for Walt Jocketty’s reasoning for pulling the trigger on this trade, but the swapping of Ramon Hernandez (and $1 mil) for Ryan Freel (and two prospects) definitely feels like it fits either part of the above definition.
For starters, I can understand that the Reds have a need for a catcher. Paul Bako and Javier Valentin are both currently free agents, meaning they either needed to acquire a veteran or use a prospect. What I don’t get, however, is how they took a look at Hernandez’s projected production and salary, and determined that he was the best fit. Or, for that matter, why trading for him made more sense than re-signing Valentin to a two-year deal. Hernandez is slated to hit .259/.323/.410 in 2009, with a .320 wOBA. Based on his numbers, he would be worth -5 runs below average offensively. It is very tough to quantify catching defense, but I would tend to think he is somewhere in the -5 runs below average range. Factor in his positional adjustment and adjustment for comparison to replacement value and we are looking at a potential +2 win player.
Valentin is projected to be -4 runs below average offensively, and I cannot imagine that he is so significantly worse behind the plate than Hernandez that the difference between the two would be extremely substantial. Combine the two projections and we see that Valentin is likely to produce along the same level as Hernandez. Add in that Hernandez is owed $8 mil in 2009 while Valentin would likely cost below $5 mil and this starts to look very odd.
Then we have Ryan Freel, a sparkplug utility fielder who talks to an imaginary voice named Farney. Freel has had several off the field issues, isn’t a particularly good hitter, but has a reputation for being a great fielder from making some great plays over the years. It is very tough to quantify Freel’s fielding because of his utilityness. With such small samples at several positions, it isn’t exactly clear what his true talent level will be. I cannot imagine he will be a starter with the Orioles, but rather a defensive replacement or spot starter. Normally, he would likely project to be an average corner outfielder, but if he serves as a defensive replacement in centerfield and pinch-runner, his value may actually increase; he wouldn’t be batting much.
Regardless of what Freel brings to the table, this trade just does not make sense to me for the Reds. I mean, honestly, what was the point? Do the Reds think that with Hernandez, and not Valentin or Bako, they will suddenly skyrocket to 90 wins? And is Ryan Freel really the missing piece to the Orioles puzzle? I understand that Weiters is the Orioles catcher of the future and unloading Hernandez is key, but Freel and prospects was all they could get? I’m all for the moves involving role players, but right now we are talking about a trade involving two severely declining role players whose added contribution to their new teams will be marginal at best. Going after a guy like Gerald Laird, as the Tigers did, would have made more sense, especially if the goal is to plug someone in as a cheap and effective stopgap.
But not Hernandez, especially not in the final, and most expensive year, of his contract, with an even more expensive club option for the following season. The Reds did not give up much in Freel, but they did not get much in Hernandez, especially considering there are cheaper and similarly effective alternatives, one of whom–Valentin–has spent significant time in Cincinnati. I’m getting a headache just thinking about this trade. Reds fans, I hope I am not offending you, but honestly, can anyone out there who is a fan of either team… even if you are a bit fanboy… truly justify this trade?
UPDATE: It is now being reported that the Orioles are giving the Reds $3 mil, which drastically changes my opinion on the trade. In that case, the Reds are trading away $4 mil in salary and getting $3 mil towards Hernandez’ $8 mil. Essentially, they are only adding $1 mil in the trade, which makes Hernandez worth it, even as a backup. It might not be pointless, but it sure is boring.
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Doesn’t make sense for the O’s? They got rid of an overpaid catcher who was blocking their future superstar.
Speaking of their future superstar…Bill James projects him to have a .406 wOBA next year. Can we honestly expect him to put up MVP numbers as a rookie?
Corey, no I didn’t mean to say it makes no sense for the Orioles. It makes no sense for the Reds. For the Orioles, what bothers me is that, especially with catching a position of scarcity in terms of quality, I’m sure that a better package could have been found over Freel + 2 prospects.
What can we realistically expect from Wieters next year and does he have the ability to be a top 10 backstop immediately?
Valentin is really a catcher in name only. He played only 17 games. He was mostly used as right handed bat off the bench or occasional 1B against tough lefties (to give Votto a break). He played more innings at 1st than he did catcher.
There’s just no way you could count on Valentin to catch that much at all this year. I personally didn’t mind this trade. Freel-like guys are littered throughout AAA. Heck, Norris Hopper is already on the roster, and can play the OF probably as well as Freel.
Valentin just isn’t a catcher at this stage of his career.
Bill James projects Wieters at a .932 OPS and .406 wOBA. Orioles fans, don’t get super-excited just yet. The James projections tend to be unrealistic offensively, and as Dave noted to me, they anticipate teams scoring something like 850 runs, which just does not happen. I would say Weiters, with a more realistic projection, would post a wOBA between .360 and .380, which, even with average defense, should skyrocket him to the top three, if not the top, catchers in the game.
Then again, he has no major league experience. In any event, only a royal flop will make him worse than Hernandez.
How can you say it doesn’t make sense for the Reds, but then say the Orioles should have acquired more?
Valentine is absolutely horrible defensively…. He is overweight and could not sustain being a starting catcher even if he was given the chance. Also his rate stats are misleading since he’s been hitting in platoon situations as a lefty even though he’s a switch hitter; and has a .219 / .294 / .298 slash against lefties.
Valentine is at best a replacement level catcher and the Reds have Hanigan who can do better at league minimum
Well, Gerald Laird is better/cheaper than Ramon Hernandez and the Rangers got very little for him.
Nick, that would be a legit reason. Thanks for that. I just don’t like the approach Jockety seems to be taking. Getting Hernandez, an aging catcher, in his most expensive season. Apparently going for Dye, in HIS most expensive season, also as a 1-yr player. I guess I just wish I understood what he was going for. Winning 75 instead of 71?
Freel is do to get paid 4 million in ‘09, so I guess the Reds view this as getting one year of Hernandez or three million when the million the O’s kicked in is counted. That sounds a little better, right?
So then why not use Hanigan? The Reds are not going to win/lose substantially more games with Hernandez or Hanigan behind the dish.
Yeah, when you think of it that way it isn’t tremendously awful, but it’s still rather boring and I just don’t get why you don’t start your young prospect in a year like this when you realistically aren’t going anywhere.
I really hope Jocketty stays away from Dye. I have him at slightly above +2 WAR if you’re generous on his playing time, making him overpaid. He’d be okay if he was the “final piece of the puzzle,” but he’s so obviously not. At least not for the Reds.
Eric,
You seem to think the Orioles could have gotten more. I wouldn’t count on that. They tried like heck to trade him in July and August, but found no takers. Once Detroit acquired Laird they essentially were down to one team that was willing to take Hernandez and his bloated contract off their hands.
This was as much about cutting salary ($5M) as it was anything else.
Actually its now reported that 3M will be given, so its the Os paying 7M for Freel and prospects and Reds 6M for Hernandez. Also Hanigan might be able good enough to be a starting catcher, but the Reds would still need another one as backup, and if the Hanigan fails there’s a huge hole just like there was last year. A full year of Hanigan as a backup is enough to see if he’s ready to start in 2010. To say it’s a pointless trade is going too far, and in reality it was probably fair and improved both clubs.
If the Os are paying 3m then my opinion changes dramatically, as the Reds are giving up 4 mil in salary and getting paid 3 more mil, meaning they are realistically only adding 1 mil to their payroll.
-Freel is a scrappy white 4A guy, if he stays healthy he is a useful bench player. But to pay a utility guy decent money and cross your fingers that he remains healthy is iffy strategy.
-Javy Valentine’s D is poor, his bat from the left side has pop but poor contact, he should never bat from the right side. He is an okay bench bat that can play below average C/1B.
-The prospects the Reds gave up have low ceilings.
-This was basically swaps of 25th men in positions of need.
I heard that the Reds are hoping that Hernandez ends up being a Type A free agent next offseason so they can get a nice pick for him. I don’t know if he’ll put up the numbers to make him a Type A, but it’ be a pretty even trade if he does.
Do the Reds think that with Hernandez, and not Valentin or Bako, they will suddenly skyrocket to 90 wins?
C’mon Eric, you’re better than that.
As was said above, Hanigan is an acceptable stopgap but he’s 28 with about 100 career MLB PAs. I think he should start but it’s foolish to not have a credible Plan B (which Valentin and Bako are not; letting Ross go was the big mistake but that’s done). From the O’s perspective, you didn’t even look at the prospects. Justin Turner isn’t great shakes but has a legitimate shot to be a good utility IF.
More to my point, are teams that don’t win 75 games supposed to not make trades simply because they bore you? Fans care about this kind of thing, and if they don’t feel like the organization is trying they’re less likely to come out.
Hernandez has a bad reputation in Baltimore – He’s considered to be clubhouse cancer. I’m not sure if this reputation is justified, but it may have had some bearing on his value (or lack thereof). My guess is that Baltimore wanted him gone before Weiters got there and were met with a poor market for catchers. There is a risk that he will be trouble in the clubhouse and not a very good chance that he will be a positive contributor on the field. Baltimore wasn’t going to get a lot out of Hernandez, so anything Freel or the minor leaguers contribute will be a plus. It would have been nice to have straight out dumped his salary, but the number of incompetent GM’s shrinks every year. (I guess Ed Wade didn’t need a catcher).