The Most Interesting Player in the Majors
Prior to this season, I held only a few memories regarding Sean Rodriguez. I had seen him play and never paid much attention to him. He was on another team, after all. I can safely say that I’ve seen a fair share of Rodriguez now, and I think he may just lay claim to the title in the header.
Rodriguez’s line entering Sunday wasn’t terribly impressive: .270/.308/.451 – or a .327 wOBA, a pinch over league average; he’d struck out in 34.4% of his at-bats and walked in only 3% of his plate appearances, so it should be no surprise that Rodriguez had more strikeouts (42) than hits (33) and probably will throughout the season. The knock on Rodriguez was always about his windmill ways…the strikeout
Yet contact doesn’t seem to be the biggest issue with Rodriguez when it comes to his strikeouts. He makes contact at a rate below league average, yes, but he’s also super passive. He swings at the first pitch at exactly league average rates, which has been sparked by a recent surge of first pitch swinging (his career rate is still 20%). Rodriguez has fallen behind 0-1 in 72 of his 133 plate appearances; that’s more than half the time, but even that number is deceiving because it doesn’t consider the 14 plate appearances where he put the ball into play. The reality of the situation is that Rodriguez has fallen behind in the count 0-1 more than 60% of the time, and it’s not because he’s swinging and missing.
Since we’ve already established that Rodriguez takes the first pitch 73% of the time, let’s find out how often he swings (and misses) on 0-0 and whether he finds himself equally passive in 0-1 counts. Of the 24 times Rodriguez has swung – not bunted, mind you – he made contact a little under 60% of the time. He’s not exactly Dustin Pedroia or Luis Castillo. Now, of those 72 0-1 pitches, Rodriguez has taken exactly 50%; a little under 20% of which were called strikes. That means he falls behind 0-2 without ever swinging the bat in roughly 70% of his plate appearances that don’t involve Rodriguez putting the ball in play on pitch number one. It’s only then that Rodriguez’s questionable contact skills become the issue with his strikeout rate.
Rodriguez has an OPS over 1.000 for the month of June, and, sure enough, of those 39 first pitches, he’s swung at 36% of them. Correlation does not equal causation, but one has to wonder if there’s something to the aforementioned numbers. Whether it is the pitchers began just lobbing strikes, or that he just became more comfortable with recording an out early in his at-bats.
Just that exercise alone makes Rodriguez captivating, but that’s not it. He’s fast. A lot faster than you’d expect someone who strikes out more than one-third of the time. He’s turned eight bunts into six hits this season and he’s added two infield hits, too. That means that eight of his 19 singles this year never left the infield. Combine that with a .180 ISO, which would, if he qualified, put him among such second baseman company as Rickie Weeks, Brandon Phillips, and Dustin Pedroia. His offensive package alone is unique; but that’s not enough since he also looks good defensively at second base.
Rodriguez’s total package makes him a speed-blessed, defensively-able middle infielder with pop and a strikeout rate over 30% caused not necessarily by his inability to make contact, but by his consistent inaction on first pitches.
How many of those exist?
45
I’m sorry, but your 70% number is quite off.
133 PA-
14 first pitch ball in contact =
119 PA where the first pitch was not put in play
119 PA
72 O-1 counts, but he swung at 24, so that = 48 at bats where he takes the pitch and is 0-1
He swings at 50% of those, so there is 24 left where he takes the 0-1 pitch, of those 20% are called strike. 20% of 24=4.8, roughly 5, so out of 119 PA where he doesn’t put the ball in play, 5 of them are going to result in an 0-2 without him taking the bat off he shoulders. Now, I don’t think it takes a genius to figure out 5/119 is not 70%, or even 7%.
Something is definitely wrong with the wording or the math….but I can’t figure out what it’s supposed to say.
Seems correctable to have him swing more often. Good coaching should change this player.
S-Rod has pop (although some of it has been PCL-induced) and he’s a darn good defender who can play multiple positions, but I can’t buy that showing less patience at the plate — especially for a guy with a 42/5 K/BB — helps his cause.
Most hitters fare much worse when down two strikes. For S-Rod, whose contact percentage is already an abomination, it’s a given that he’d be atrocious down 0-2. I’m just not sure how being less patient will erase his contact woes or help him avoid two-strike counts more often. Don’t you want him TAKING the first pitch more often?
His .288 average right now is being driven by a .400 BABIP. His bunts for base hits have helped that rate tremendously thus far (nearly 17% of his hits have been of the BUH variety), but he’s unlikely to turn into a bunt-for-base-hit machine just because he’s caught defenses off guard a few times. He does have above-average speed, but he’s no burner a la Chone Figgins or Michael Bourn. Put simply, if he keeps doing the same thing, defenses will adjust.
All that said, I do think the Rays need to find a way to keep him in the lineup when Jason Bartlett returns on Wednesday. I just don’t think going up there hacking at the first pitch, even if it’s a strike, makes him a better ballplayer.
It seems to me that S-Rod’s problem is more about strike zone/pitch recognition, if the author is right about him falling behind 0-2 so often.
Granted he can swing at first pitch more often to avoid striking out, but below average contact hitters almost never succeed that way (in the long run).
Is there a negative correlation between speed metrics and strikeouts considering that fast guys don’t strike out as you say