The Nationals Pending Decision
The Washington Nationals have taken swings at two free agent sluggers and have yet to make contact. General Manager Jim Bowden ended 2008 watching Mark Teixeira sign with the New York Yankees for less money, and despite a reportedly similar offer on the table, Bowden brings in 2009 with the loss of Milton Bradley. The Nationals will now decide whether to take a run at another free agent, or instead maintain building through the draft and cost efficient additions.
Rumors about Bowden and Adam Dunn will be the buzz until Dunn signs. Familiarity derives from the duo’s time in Cincinnati. Of course, Manny Ramirez is still out there along with Bobby Abreu, but none of them should be overly appealing to the Nationals. Remember, the Nationals will have the first overall pick along with the tenth pick – assuming they fail to sign Aaron Crow – in June’s draft. Before they attempt to sign any heavily priced free agents, they need to commit to drafting and signing the best available talent, otherwise reorganize their priorities.
Admittedly, Dunn (or whomever) is easier to sell to a disgruntled fan base as a sign of commitment. Selling the brand is important, and part of that is establishing players as “Nationals”, still yet, the long-term health of the franchise will weigh heavier on the draft selections than whomever the Nationals decide to sign.
59 wins earned the Nationals the worst record in baseball. Even if we assume some progression from the youngsters along with some better health, that leaves them on the wrong end of .500. Dunn, Abreu, and Ramirez all share poor fielding, and the Nationals currently have about a trillion outfielders on their roster. 1+2 does not equal 4 which makes this even more puzzling. Here’s a look at how Dunn stacks up to Willie Harris, the Nats incumbent left fielder.
Harris: -4.4 batting runs, 19.1 fielding runs, 14.1 replacement adjustment, -3.3 positional. 3.4 wins.
Dunn: 28.6 batting runs, -22.8 fielding runs, 21.7 replacement adjustment, -8 positional. 1.9 wins.
Of course, Harris had a career year and is unlikely to reach those heights again, but he’s also being paid 1.5 million. Even if Dunn takes a Pat Burrell-esque 2/16 deal, Dunn will have to be 1.25 wins better than Harris to be worth the difference. This is without noting Elijah Dukes and Lastings Milledge, both of whom who should be playing, Austin Kearns, Josh Willingham, Nick Johnson, Wily Mo Pena, and the minor league outfielders the Nationals have signed.
The decision to sign a corner outfielder/first baseman type just doesn’t seem like a smart allocation of assets for the Nationals. Long-term, investing the money into young talent is a better solution than an unsustainable boost in jersey and ticket sales.
Print This Post
Good article! I don’t understand why the Nats are going after a corner spot at all. They have a glut of them and the ones they have are adequate and I think Dukes and Milledge are due for huge years and I still like Nick Johnson at 1B.
I’m a Dukes fan from his days in the minors, so I’m a bit biased, but I definitely think they could have something special there. Assuming off the field issues don’t interfere, obviously.
The deadline for signing Aaron Crow is in the past, it was August 15. The Nationals will pick #10 in the draft.
I would love for the Nats to sign Dunn…I would also love to see the Mariners take Nick Johnson off their hands.
At what position?What position would you place Dunn at?
This may not be the forum for this, but if Dunn is signed as a DH in the AL, does his value wins now improve by 1.4.
BR: 28.6
Fielding: 0
Replacement: 21.7
Positional DH: -17.0
Wins 3.3
or am I doing something wrong here.
That looks right, although your positional should be -17.5 unless you adjusted it for playing time.
They have a full OF. Willingham, Dukes, and Milledge. Then of course, they have 3 backup OF, with Kearns, Harris and Pena. They have NO need. If, and only if, they trade Johnson can I see them doing this, and then putting Willingham at 1B. It is still not the smartest move to invest millions on FA that will not help that much, and especially when you have 6 OF.
I would not mind the Nats signing Hudson to a 2 or 3 yr deal worth 6-7M a year……unless for some reason the Nats are commited to using Belliard or Hernandez……
Strasburg will get big bucks also…….saving the money and investing in real talent for the future will not hurt them……….
As a Nationals fan I feel I must respond. Adam Dunn would play at first base, replacing the oft-injured Nick Johnson. No chance he would get more than 10 games in the outfield. The outfield seems to be set with Willingham, Milledge, Dukes, Kearns, and Harris. Don’t expect Rog Bernadina or Pena to make the opening day roster. Also, obviously, Major league baseball franchise owners are some of the wealthiest people in the country. There is no reason they couldn’t sign Dunn, Orlando Hudson, AND Stephen Strasburg (plus the #10 pick, albeit an expected over draft). Adam and Orlando aren’t exactly old, and shouldn’t be by the time their contracts would expire – that is, if the Nationals are smart.
Plus, the $10 pick who will get big bucks, and the rest of your draftees……
Signing Hudson would be the best option…..If N. Johnson can’t play then move Willingham to 1B, so then you have Milledge, Dukes, Kearns/Harris playing the OF. That makes most sense…..