The Pirates Haul
Earlier today, we talked about the Nate McLouth trade from the perspective of what McLouth should bring to Atlanta. He’s a good player and the Pirates offense will miss him. However, Neil Huntington didn’t just toss him off the ship, but felt this was a trade he had to make. Let’s look at what this deal does for Pittsburgh.
The main driver behind this deal wasn’t any of the prospects that Atlanta gave up, but instead, one that Pittsburgh already had. The Pirates top center field prospect and first round pick in 2005, Andrew McCutchen, had been cooling his heels in Triple-A waiting for a shot in the majors, and this deal opens up a full time job for the 22-year-old. A .300/.361/.493 line for Indianapolis helped convince the Pirates that he was ready for a big league role, and sure enough, he went 2 for 4 with a stolen base in his major league debut this afternoon.
McCutchen should be an upgrade over McLouth defensively, though there’s going to be a fairly significant offensive dropoff. That’s where the prospects come in – the Pirates are counting on the three players they got from Atlanta more than offsetting the switch from McLouth to McCutchen in center field.
The best of the bunch, for me, is LHP Jeff Locke. The 21-year-old lefty uses a 90-94 MPH sinking fastball to get both groundballs and strikeouts, and as we’ve talked about a lot here, pitchers who can do those two things are often very successful. Of course, pitchers who do both of those things often also have command problems, as the movement required to get grounders and swinging strikes also makes it hard to throw strikes consistently, and Locke is no exception. His 26 walks in 45 2/3 innings in High-A ball is a legitimate concern, and the lack of polish puts Locke at least two years from the majors.
The other pitcher in the deal, Charlie Morton, is closer to the majors but with quite a bit less upside. Like Locke, Morton throws a sinking fastball that gets groundball, but he lacks an outpitch and won’t rack up the same amount of swings and misses. His command has taken several steps forward in the last few years, though he still struggles to throw strikes to LHBs, so while he should be able to succeed as a strike throwing sinkerball guy, but he’s probably going to top out as a #5 starter and have trouble against line-ups stacked with opposite handed hitters.
Pittsburgh also got back an outfield prospect in the deal, as Gorkys Hernandez now finds himself in his third organization in three years. He’s an excellent athlete with terrific defensive skills, and brings terrific range to center field, which is good, because he’s probably not going to become much of a hitter. He’s not as projectable as most 21-year-olds due to his swing plane that drives the ball into the ground, which severely limits his power potential. He’s going to have to be a speedy leadoff type, but the successful hitters in that family make a lot of contact, and Hernandez does not. You can be a good hitter without power, and you can be a good hitter while striking out, but it’s almost impossible to be a good hitter without power if you also strike out a bunch.
In all, the Pirates got back one good upside arm who needs to straighten out his mechanics before he can help the big league team in 2-3 years and a couple of lower upside guys who profile as nice role players long term. Morton and Hernandez are more depth than core players, and while Locke could certainly win this trade for the Pirates on his own abilities, betting on 21-year-old A-ball pitchers is hardly ever a winning proposition.
For me, the Pirates didn’t get enough for McLouth. Getting McCutchen into the line-up is a nice perk, but that could have happened by letting him take playing time from Nyjer Morgan and Brandon Moss. If I’m giving up a +3 to +4 win 27-year-old signed to a terrific contract, I want back a little more than some guys who could fill out a roster and a pitcher who might be able to help me in 2012.
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So, does this give us any indication of where the market for the M’s players (Bedard, Wash, Branyan…) might be?
Morgan needs to be starting in center for somebody. Am I right?
Ultimately, as a born in Pittsburgh Bucos fan, I’m sad to see Nate go. He was fun to watch and had a very dry sense of humor, which was a nice change of pace. I’m excited about Locke, and I agree to some extent about not getting enough in return. (Why not target Brandon Wood?? The ‘halos would love to get younger in the outfield). But I watched McCutcheon play today and was very impressed by his poise. He didn’t look at all intimidated. He may not hit for power the way McLouth did (and it wasn’t like he was Griffey in that respect), but he’s certainly an upgrade defensively and just as good a baserunner. He’s also a better contact hitter than Nate is. And yea maybe he could come up and take at bats from Moss and Morgan but if they aren’t in your plans for the future, and are nothing more than bench players or trade bait, you’re certainly not going to get an arm like Locke for Moss or Morgan, and that’s really what the Pirates need. So really could they have gotten an arm better than Locke for McLouth? Teams are a bit smarter now adays when it comes to blue chip pitchers.
Keep in mind a few things about Locke.
(1) He is a cold weather kid coming from NH. Because of that, the Braves have been very slow and cautious with his pitch counts and IP because kids from cold weather states don’t often have the arm strength built up because they can’t play all year long. That has positives though. He has less wear and tear on his arm so is most likely less of a future injury risk. He also has played less baseball but yet is already ranked near the top 100 by most online publications.
(2) He is still very young at 21and will most likely see AA this year. It isn’t like he is behind schedule, if you drafted a college pitcher on Tuesday he would be 21 or older and probably start in A or A+ perhaps reaching AA for a few innings before being shut down. The following year they will either go straight to AA or go back to A+ for a few starts before going to AA. Locke isn’t behind schedule.
(3) Locke has 3 pitches that all project to be at least above average all of which he can throw for strikes. He has a deceptive delivery which helps hide the ball and confuse the hitters. BA says he has great makeup, competitivness and mound presence with a good frame that has room to fill out possibly allowing him to add a few more MPH to his FB. For a LHP, that is pretty good.
(4) Lastly, the Braves have been pretty good at developing pitching over the years and have been near the top of the majors in minor league talent for some time. They consistently pick late in the draft and yet always get good talent. Their scouting and development teams do an amazing job, if you are unfamiliar with the names I don’t think you should simply assume the players have no potential because the Braves’ track record says they do a pretty good job at this sort of thing.
I feel like you’re not giving Morton his due. To me he’s like a poor man’s Clay Buccholz. He throws in the mid 90s with a yacker of a 12-6 curve, and a respectable slide piece. His changeup is pretty nice from what I remember.
He was dominant last season when he finally improved command, and was doing pretty well as a rookie in Atlanta until he started to wear down, pitched injured, and eventually had to shut it down.
When Morton came up he was throwing in the mid 90s (94-97), as he had been in AAA all season. After several starts, he was topping out at 92 … and eventually went on the DL with back issues.
But, the last 2 seasons in AAA for Morton …
2008…..2.05 ERA…..0.99 WHIP…..8.20 K/9…..1.57 GO/AO
2009…..2.51 ERA…..1.05 WHIP…..7.65 K/9…..1.01 GO/AO
I feel like your assessment of Charlie Morton was really not up to par with his abilities
I don’t know. You do a lot to undermine your own case there, Brady.
How do you figure? The nuts and bolts of it are Morton has very good stuff, and sucked until he found control to go with it. In 2008 he gained control.
In 2008 and thus far in 2009, he’s been awesome.
I don’t really see how a kid with a big curve and a mid 90s fastball with good control can be looked at as a peon in a trade like this.
Charlie Morton is one of the best AAA pitchers in baseball this year and last.
Well, you mentioned his injury history, loss in velocity and decline in K/9 and GO/AO from last year. Granted the sample size is small, but those stats tend to stabilize quickly.
I guess rather than arguing that Morton’s no good, I’m just saying that I’m unpersuaded by the evidence you’ve given. Scouts think that Morton is a middle- to back-of-the-rotation type. I don’t see any reason to second-guess them.
He’s also a 25 y.o. repeating AAA. It’s really not all that impressive.
I was expecting to see Freeman or Medlen going to Pitt, and I felt like that would be a great deal for the Pirates.
When I saw they got neithert, I have to say I was somewhat disappointed in the Pirates. I figured they MUST have demanded one of those two guys. They claim they weren’t “shopping” McLouth, and that the Braves approached them. Does that mean they were SO blown away by the offer they just had to take it without negotiating at all?
It’s not the worst trade I’ve ever seen or anything like that, but they didn’t get high-upside players OR immediate help. They got medium-upside players who will take time to develop. I really don’t get it.
Are they just trying to clear salary room to sign Sano and their draft pick? If that’s the case, why sign McLouth to begin with?
If anyone has any thoughts, take a hack at it. I’m not trying to bury the Pirates here, I just truly don’t understand the thinking.
I think Dave explained it very well actually. McLouth isn’t a GREAT player, he’s a very good player. The package of prospects wasn’t great, but all three are good. Morton’s a low BB, medium K, high GB% pitcher. Gorkys is legendary defense apparently, and according to Dave Locke has quite the potential. Plus they could just flip those guys for something they needed more than McLouth since McCuttchen was waiting to play.
And if they just let him go via free agency instead of sign and trade, they wouldn’t have gotten these three prospects, but would have only gotten an extra pick in the draft.
Ok guys, I am a Braves fan. what did we get? I’m not that familiar with nate. Morton will immediately help. He has the stuff. Gorkys is a fewa years away but will contirbute when he has the experience. Locke is a question mark just as outlined in this article. If he matures and throws strikes – Yo win. tell me about Nate.
Look at Dave’s post from earlier today for all the McLouth info you can handle (or at least a good assessment of what he is and how he fits in Atlanta).
hey, Braves fan here,
We’re very excited to get McClouth, I think he is just what we are needing.
But I agree with Brady. Morton is not getting enough credit. He was actually “our Hanson” a few years ago.
Morton’s problems are not in his makeup, they are in his head. He has great control, but in the Majors he tries to make perfect pitches and misses. Walks were his downfall.
If you can get him to gain some confidence by starting on a regular basis, I thinks you will have a number 3 or possibly number 2 starter. He has great awesome stuff, and when he shows it, I think you’ll be happy.
Plus Hernandez could be an outstanding CF for you in a few years. I think once he fills out from a boy to a man, you’ll have a poor mans Carlos Beltran. (which is still great)
Just trying to give you a better understanding of what you guys got.
Best of luck to ya….except against me Bravos, we need the luck against you guys!
I think you are underrating Gorkys’ upside…. Baseball America rated him as the 4th best prospect in the Braves system before this year, and they say that he “has all the tools to become a quintessential center fielder and leadoff hitter.” Granted, BA is not perfect, but dismissing Gorkys as nothing more than a role player at this point seems like a mistake.
Regarding BA’s assessment of Gorkys, it seems to me that he’s the perfect type of guy that they whiff on: great tools, but he’s not really showing much development or actual quality numbers. Sure, maybe he turns into another Nyjer Morgan, maybe with better defense, but is that really a starting center fielder in this league? One that you trade for at least?
And to me, Morton’s declining numbers in his age-25 AA season and the linear weights on his different pitches suggest a fringe-y starter to me.
With the fact that Locke’s upside ranges anywhere from middle relief to LOOGY to mid-rotation starter, I’d say the Buccos should have gotten at least one more higher-ceiling guy in the trade. No Cole Rohrbaugh, Freddie Freeman or Kris Medlen? Advantage: Bravos.
Gorkys’ defense was +42 runs last year by total zone. And it was +23 the year before. Even if he hit like Alex Cora, he would be an above avereage player.
Somone MUST be paying the Pirates’ front office to create that perennial suckfest of a team. Trading Jason Bay and Nate Mcclouth for Andy LaRoche, Craig Hansen, Bryan Morris, Charlie Morton, Gorkys Hernandez, and Jeff Locke is completely unjustifiable and asenine. They are going the way of the American Motorcar….Major League Baseball should forceably take over the team to prevent it from further destroying itself. In a few years, Mcclouth will be dealt away for the next round of mediocre prospects, and the cycle will continue. The only player who has a minute chance of becoming as valuable as Bay and Mcclouth out of that pile of roster filler is Andy LaRoche, and the chances of that happening are about the same as the Pirates winning a World Series within the next 10 years….basically, it will take a miracle.
Seriously, my dog could manage manage a team better. He knows how to fetch his food dish when it’s time for dinner, probably a step above the guy who pulled the trigger on this trade.
That should read “in a few years, Mccutchen”
I don’t see the point of this trade. Hernandez should never be playing in center for the Pirates if McCutcheon or Tabata work out. Not to mention Morgan should be in center, because a guy with ZERO home runs shouldn’t be in a corner spot.
Morton might work out, but all in all, he’s uninspiring to me. It’s way too early to say anything about Locke.
As a die hard Pirates fan, it doesn’t look very good for this team for the next few years, again… I don’t know how they expect to win with such few players who have power potential and a rotation of 3-5 starters. Who knows if we’d win with Nate but you have to start building around players eventually. Nate wasn’t a perfect player, but he was a very good one on the Pirates and with his contract and age, he should have been a cornerstone.
You could stickTabata in left, the lesser of Gorkys/Cutch in right and the better in center, and have one hell of a defensive outfiled. Also, Morgan’s only spot should be as the 5th outfielder.
My bad on the typos, my keys keep getting stuck.
Is there really that significant a difference between six and zero home runs over the course of a season? I’d say no, and since that’s the case, I present Ichiro. Yes, obviously he’s a freak, but offensive contributions aren’t dependent on home run production. One can have a good enough bat to play the corner if the other aspects of one’s offensive game are strong enough. I’m not saying that Morgan is that guy, but citing his lack of home runs alone isn’t really enough to say his bat won’t play in the corner.
Ichiro is an extreme example. You don’t have to hit homeruns to produce, but you can’t be a Juan Pierre clone and be especially valuable.
Right, but a Juan Pierre clone would also be incapable of taking walks, in addition to not hitting any home runs. A doubles-OBP-efficient basestealer would still be valuable in a corner spot, even if he’s not popping the home runs.
Right. Morgan has shown decent patience and speed to along with otherwordly defense. There’s a place for players like that.
I think everyone is not taking into account the mess that Neal Huntington inherited when he took over. It was a complete cluster-f.
And just like in drafts, you don’t trade for minor league talent based on depth. Worry about that later. Do the Pirates’s have zero power hitting outfield prospects while having an abundance of speedy center fielders? Yes. But let’s wait to see how these guys (Tabata and Hernandez) do in AAA before we worry about how they are going to fit in with the major league club. And let us remember that both of those guys are LA talents who have been young for their level every year, and therefore have much more room for projection, especially in the power department. Needless to say, I am a bit worried about Hernandez K/BB ratio this year. His BABIP so far this year is simply unsustainable.
Locke and Morton are exactly what the Pirates need considering the pitching talent they have in the minors. They drafted Mike Felix in the second round in 2006! God I hate Dave Littlefield.
If only one of these guys becomes an above average ML player, it’s a good trade, considering the Pirates will not compete for a playoff spot in the next two seasons, and Nate McClouth is an above average ML player right now (while not being on the cheap).
Pirates fans, much like most Pittsburgh fans, are irrational (there were serious suggestions of trading Sidney Crosby midway through this season), and therefore will always hate this trade.
I am a Red Sox fan….your reasoning just doesn’t make sense. If one of those guys becomes an average player, the trade makes sense? Mcclouth is in his prime, and under contract for the next 3 years at a price way below his “free market” value.
Now you are saying that because they are not going to compete for the playoffs in the next 2 years, they should essentially give away their little remaining major league talent, for players who have almost no chance of becoming as valuable as the players they are trading away? And that makes sense to you?
That isn’t fair. All 3 of the players the Pirates got back “have almost no chance of becoming as valuable” as a slighlty above average LF?
The problems with this trade are:
(1) McLouth is overrated offensively and defensively. He came from the Pirates and was one of only two or three positional players worth even paying attention to. He gets a GG in CF because he only committed 1 error and gets voted to he AS game because there was nobody else to go from the Pirates.
(2) The Pirates got back 3 young player with little or no MLB experience therefore the vast majority of baseball fans know nothing about them. Because they know nothing about them, they don’t think they have any valye…which is flat out wrong.
(3) The Pirates have been losing for 17 years and the majority of their fanbase is going to complain no matter what because they have developed the opinion that whatever the Pirates do will in fact be the wrong decision so let’s blast them.
(4) The Pirates organization was in a horrible state when he took over. He is builing a future contender, not a team that hovers around .500 with no shot of winning their division. Someone already said it but if you can’t win 90 games, it’s most likely more healthy for your organization to lose 90 if the fans would understand how the system works and that is especially true for small market teams. The Pirates simply can’t compete with the Cubs/Cards/Brewers trying to compete now and build for the future. They simply don’t have the resources so NH decided to focus everything they have on the future which will make this organization much better in the long run than what the fans want because he will be able to sustain their success through the strong foundation he will eventually have built.
Should the fans be upset? Maybe, I don’t think they should but understand why they are. Was this a bad baseball decision? Certainly not! It falls right in line with everything NH has done, the only odd parts of the deal are that the Pirates locked him up longterm (which increased his trade value even though it might not have made sense since they just dealt him away) and they did it this early before the deadline (but he said he just really loved the offer so he took it). The move makes sense, it falls right in line with everything he has done (build depth, specifically pitching), and the fans should really give him a bit of room because this isn’t DL.
This is a fantastic haul for the Pirates. They shipped off spare parts and raided top talent from a historically phenomenal player development system.
Nothing like taking advantage of the desperate to completely fleece them I say.
A fantastic haul? You’re joking right?
Have you been reading?
Like all trades we’ll have to see how things work out for these prospects. Don’t call it fantastic until at least 2 of them are regular pros.
Reading is mostly for the intellectual lazy. I prefer to use my eyes to watch the games.
I think the push and pull between these posts shows probably exactly where Charlie Morton will see his career go…somewhere in the middle. Some feel he has 2-3 pitcher stuff while others think he might be a journeyman back and forth between majors and minors.
I feel like the kid has the arm and the body to become a back-end of the rotation starter for the years to come. He’s learning how to pitch and now this should finally be his big break to show he has the confidence and stuff to be a major leaguer. He has a good sinking fastball that consistently clocks lower-to-mid 90s and is developing his change. He gutted it out last year with injuries while in the majors and has been killing AAA ball again this year. He’s gonna be healthy and he’s gonna prove to be a bigger piece than most are giving him in this trade. The change of scenary and move closer the tri-state area should be good for him. There’s nothing wrong with a pitcher that could give you .500 baseball and go 150-180 innings a year with 115-140 K’s a year at the back end.
Side note: Morton is a hell of a singer. I’ve seen him doing acoustic and he’s pretty damn good…has a Jack Johnson vibe to his voice and music. Writes his own songs too.
Hey guys, another Braves fan here. As a fanatic for the Braves I would like to offer my opinion on this trade. first of all, lets evaluate the players you got.
As most have said Gorkys Hernandez was the braves 4th best prospect this year. Could he go all Andy Marte on you?- it’s possible. However, many in Atlanta thought more highly of him than Schafer (his demotion notwithstanding, I think he will be great eventually). He’s a ridiculously fast CF who is supposedly a plus defensively. In my opinion, he’s the best player you got. Sure, he won’t hit homeruns, but he will a decent leadoff guy STARTING in the majors one day. Hell, if you guys are set at CF, just move him over. Chances are you will have traded Mccutchen (sorry about sp) by then anyway. Gorkys is still young and needs to fill out. Good pickup.
Morton, in my opinion, was always going to get traded. Never had any intention of keeping him, just showcasing him. He is definitely a head case. I saw him pitch a brilliant game in ATL, and also many garbage games. Not that he doesnt have the stuff to be a starter, he just lacked mental toughness. IMO he will be no more than a 3 starter- but- and I don’t mean offense by this- he could be 1 or 2 for the pirates some day, unless your mngmt bucks up. He really can be quite good, he’s just starting to get old for AAA. change of scenery could be good, could be terrible for him. who knows. At worst he we be a back end starter for you goin 5 a game.
Locke- many think he is the best too in the Braves organization that we gave you. on the Braves blog many a talks were had aboutthe future of this cat. He has a very high upside. Could be a sick closer, maybe a low 1- 2 starter if he goes that route. A lot of people wanted to keep him, but hes just a few years away, and clearly we have a lot of pitching depth 2 years away.
Never were you going to get heyward, or Freddie freeman in the deal as I believe was mentioned by someone above. You’re looking at possibly our corner OF and 1B of the future, for many years to come. I would assume Freeman is on the untouchable list as Heyward is. (unless we get Adrian Gonzalez in the future- unlikely) Or we trade Freeman for a large haul, or a superstar.
Truthfully, I think you guys did on the low side of allright. The fact is Mr. McClouth is not great, not a superstar, and you would have gotten zilch for him a year and a half ago. Time will tell if he becomes one, but he seems to me to be an average pretty good player. Truth is, I don’t really have any idea. In fact I said “who?” when I first heard the news. took me a second to remember he was with you guys.
In any event, I wish yopu guys a lot of luck. You’ve been screwed 3 ways from sunday for the past 16 years and you need serious help. I feel bad for you fans.
Good luck. Thanks for lettin me post
Come on, Dave. You couldn’t call it “The Pirate Booty”?
“2012″ appears to be what new management is building for with Jeff Locke. By that time, Jose Tabata and Pedro Alvarez ought to be ready to go.
Problem is, management has forgotten that you have to live in the here and now. And often, the best way to get to 2012 is through 2011, and 2010, and 2009.
Given what the Pirates have to work with, what is the road to success in the now?-
The theory is that Andy McCutchen and Nyjer Morgan are more than adequate replacements for McLouth. But that’s more of an”ivory tower” argument than anything else.
Long time Braves fan here.
Just keep in mind Pirates fans, that the Braves farm is the 3rd best in the majors (by most sites that judge such things). You got the 7th(Gorky) and 9th(Locke) best prospects in that system. Gorky immediately becomes your 2nd best prospect…..and you basically can count Locke as a 2nd round draft pick from last year. Morton is not getting enough love (really? a Braves pitching prospect not getting national media respect, no, never….) He was ONLY traded because he is blocked like crazy in ATL. He is not better than Vasquez, Lowe, Jurrjens, Hanson. We cant move Kawakami now, even though I would much rather have Medlin or Morton in rotation. He’s isn’t cracked up to be a reliever (ie: he always seems get better as he goes a few innings). Which kinda brings me to his problem. Its all head-case issues. He has the stuff, believe me. (Ive seen him pitch a few times in Majors and Minors. When he’s on, he makes hitters look stupid) He has the knowledge of how to pitch. He just doesn’t trust his stuff. He consistently throws a fastball when he should be using one of those great breaking pitches he has. // also keep in mind that trade we did with Texas. Those fellows have worked out pretty well so far for Texas. // All in all, you could argue that the Pirates sold high, but didn’t get enough. You can argue that they pulled the trigger too early. You can also argue that the Pirates weren’t going to have the opportunity to trade with ATL in a month. More than likely, if spurned by PIT, we would have gotten a bat already in a then. Then you would have been forced to trade with a team that doesn’t have the depth we have in the system, and maybe wouldn’t have even gotten what you got. Of course, then why would you trade Mclouth anyways. All legitimate arguments. I don’t see how you can argue that PIT doesn’t have a better overall franchise now than before.
Your analysis of Morton has been dead on thus far.
Great stuff, a bit of a headcase, and tries to throw the perfect pitch too often.
But, the author of this article could not be more wrong about McCutchen not giving you the offense of McClouth and Chuck Morton being a #5 starter at best. While his ERA is astronomical, his peripherals are pretty good (FIP 4), improved K/BB rate, and he has been the victim of a 2 HR/FB rate (easily highest of his career), and a crazy .389 BABIP (that was over .400 just a week ago). Morton will be fine.
Gorkys is a bust, but Jeff Locke is starting to show his stuff by dominating High-A and being close to being promoted to AA.
Author missed on this one….
Damn, very nice website. I actually came across this on Yahoo, and I am stoked I did. I will definately be revisiting here more often. Wish I could add to the conversation and bring a bit more to the table, but am just absorbing as much info as I can at the moment.
Thank You
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