“it’s clear to me and probably many others that Ellsbury >> Sweeney.”

That’s nice and all, but you can’t back that up in anyway what so ever. Ellsbury is a -7.9 in CF. Even with positional adjustments Sweeney is dominating him in fielding, by about 10 runs (-7.9+10-13.9). Then for batting, Ellsbury was +12 this last year and basically zero last year. Then Sweeney was 2.4 and 1.1 in the last two years. So over the last two years its basically a wash. As their respective WARs would show (5.7 Sweeney, 5.4 Ellsbury). Then, as was pointed out Sweeney is 2 year young than Ellsbury. At 24 we should expect Sweeney to get better, and at 26 Ellsbury may have already peaked.

If you said you thought Ellsbury was just a little better, I might not agree, but I wouldn’t really argue it. But to say “Ellsbury >> Sweeney” is just ridiculous. They are basically equal, but if anything Sweeney is better.

“Look! He’s one of the best outfielders in the game”

and I’m somehow not allowed to say

“Well, based on the same stat in virtually the same number of innings in 2008, he was one of the worst…”

Again, all the while keeping in mind that, with a limited sample size, which is exactly what we are working with here, there is statistical noise…I’m confused where you all don’t seem to understand that.

Also, keep in mind, I didn’t make the Ellsbury comparison.

Ellsbury and Sweeney are not comparable – the former is a better player than the latter and I’ve already laid that out. You can go on talking about park advantages and OPS/OPS+ and their arm strength in comparison to Johnny Damon, but it’s clear to me and probably many others that Ellsbury >> Sweeney.

Speed is not something that *increases* as you age. Ask any person at any level of any mindset; Sweeney never showed any speed in the minors, why on earth would we believe he’ll show it in the future?

Sounds like your an A’s fan shining some of your shit and calling it gold, am I wrong?

WAR for 2009
Sweeney 3.9
Ellsbury 2.1

There is nothing wrong with doing this if you have a good reason to do it. It is true that it will have a larger error term because of the smaller sample size, but that doesn’t mean what you’re doing is wrong.

In the case of Sweeney, first he’s young, so we have some expectation that he will improve over time. Second, he was getting over knee problems earlier in the season. Meaning, if we see a positive trend in his preformance over time, we have a good reason to believe it is real, and the most recent data is the most telling of his true talent. If this is true, Sweeney is going to be one damned good player.

So Sweeney /Ellsbury are basically comparable outside of the speed. Sweeney has an adgeofdefense/arm IMO. Sweeney isnt a stiff out there, he had some knee issues. If healthy i think he’s a 20+ steal guy eventually. Not close to ellsbury, but its not like he’s benji molina running out there. Yet you call one a 4th OF and the other a legit starting OF

Sounds like you are a white sox fan wanting him to fail,am i wrong?

If you wouldn’t take Ellsbury – a proven major league CF – that, again, stole 70 bases at an 85% clip, over Ryan Sweeney, you are absolutely batshit crazy.

worse OPS+
worse defense
terrible OF arm (though not as bad as damon)
hitting in boston for a home park vs oakland is a huge advantage
Ellsbury has elite speed on sweeney no doubt, but every other area of his game might be considered a bit worse

That said, i dont consider eithe 4th OF IMO, both are solid above avg mlb OF.

I was never a fan of Ethier in the first place, but yes, his inability to improve vs. LHP is a problem. His career numbers vs LHP are better, though. For example, the Phillies were playing Polanco over Utley early in Utley’s career because he couldn’t handle LHP. He improved and is now one of the best players in all of baseball. Or Jayson Werth; once a lefty masher, now one of the most valuable OFs in baseball. If Ethier could improve hitting LHP, wouldn’t that make him one of the more dangerous outfielders in the game? Of course. Same goes for Curtis Granderson, Grady Sizemore, Ryan Howard, etc.

If you are using half-a-season OPS as a basis for improvement, I think you’re on the wrong website. PL made the argument that Sweeney has been “worth $22mil while on the A’s.” I pointed out that that value – most of which comes from this year and his absurd UZR numbers – has a whole lot of noise. That’s a given. Sweeney can improve, but I’m not going to look at half a season of numbers and say he’s turned a corner from becoming a 4th outfielder to a legit one.

Just for fun, sweeney improved his OPS by 200 points vs lefties in 09 compared to 08.

Andre Ethier is a .194/,629 vs lefties does that diminish his talent?