The Punto/Harris Decision
Last week, I noted that Ron Gardenhire put out a tragedy of an outfield defense when he stuck Michael Cuddyer in center field and flanked him with Delmon Young and Jason Kubel. The Twins are traditionally a defense oriented ballclub with a pitching staff full of pitch to contact strike throwers, so it was surprising to see Minnesota put such a poor collection of gloves on the field at the same time.
Well, the latest odd defensive decision from Gardenhire isn’t as disastrous as the no-glove outfield, but it might be just as weird.
The Twins gave Nick Punto a 2 year, $8 million contract over the winter to retain their starting shortstop. While he’s not much of a hitter, Punto has proven to be an extremely adept fielder, posting a career UZR/150 of +17.5 at shortstop and +19.5 at second base over 3,300 career innings up the middle. He’s not flashy, but he has good range and is very steady, rarely making errors. The combination makes him one of the better defensive shortstops in the game.
Well, Punto went on the disabled list at the end of May, and the Twins used Brendan Harris as his replacement while he was away. Harris, while an okay hitter for a middle infielder, is a lousy defender. He’s a career -9.5 UZR/150 at shortstop and -6.7 at second base, and he just doesn’t have the range to be a quality defender at an up the middle position.
Punto came off the DL on June 11th, and he’s been playing regularly for the last week. At second base.
Yes, Gardenhire has decided that when he puts Harris and Punto on the field together, he’s giving Harris the more challenging defensive position and putting Punto at the less important of the two middle infield spots. Remember, Punto is a borderline gold glover at short, while Harris probably shouldn’t be playing the position at all.
I don’t get it. If the Twins didn’t think Punto could play shortstop, they wouldn’t have re-signed him for $4 million a year – they’re not paying for his bat. So, did Harris make one great play that convinced Gardenhire that he’s a changed man defensively? Is he bribing him? What possible reason could the Twins have for running out a bad defender at shortstop and a really good defender at second base?
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So, did Harris make one great play that convinced Gardenhire that he’s a changed man defensively? Is he bribing him? What possible reason could the Twins have for running out a bad defender at shortstop and a really good defender at second base?
here is your answer
To sum up the points in your linked article, you show that Harris has been a significantly worse hitter at 2B than at 3B or SS. He’s got a 79 OPS+ at 2B (446 PA), 106 OPS+ at SS (699 PA), and a 125 OPS+ at 3B (198 PA). You also mention that his defense is improved this year, at least at short (but there is obviously a ridiculous small sample size problem here with this year’s fielding). One thing that sticks out about his atrocious hitting at 2B is his .269 BABIP, compared to his .321 career BABIP. So, the poor hitting at 2B is somewhat fluky. But yeah, it looks like he might not be as good of a hitter when he’s playing second. Like you said in the article, it seemed to be an issue for Cuddy when he was playing 3B.
Maybe it’s got something to do with his confidence or mental readiness or whatever at 2B. It certainly doesn’t help in this regard when Gardenhire is constantly publicly bemoaning his inability to turn the double play at 2B. That can’t help a man’s confidence. And for the record, Harris rates at -0.4 Double Play Runs compared to average with UZR in almost 1000 innings, for whatever it’s worth. So, eat &*#%, Gardy.
Sniping at Baseball Tonight may get old someday, but that day is not today. I heard John Kruk say recently that Nick Punto is a good hitter. It really makes you wonder what goes on in that guy’s head. I mean, nothing about Punto’s stats give any indication that he’s anything but terrible at the plate. Maybe it’s that he (as a .249 career hitter) lucked into averages of .284 and .290 last year and in 2006, respectively?
My understanding was that Harris’s bat is needed in the lineup and he looks more comfortable at short than second. Punto can play anywhere, so put him where he’s needed.
According to the Nick Punto’s page, his UZR/150 at second is actually 1.4 – it’s 19.5 at 3B. Gardenhire apparently has both Harris and Punto playing at their worst positions…
Sadly, I think Glanzer is right. Gardy thinks Punto is more “versatile,” while Harris seems “uncomfortable” at second. Sigh.
On June 14, not only did Harris play SS and Punto 2B, but Matt Tolbert filled in for Crede at 3B. So you’ve got your shortstop at second, a second baseman at third, and a guy whose skill set is probably best suited for third base (if not DH; Harris’ numbers in his time at 3B are actually even worse than elsewhere) at short. It seems to me he should’ve just gone ahead and put Morneau at 2B, Punto moving to 1B, to complete the picture.
Well, uh…
Maybe it might make sense if a particular opponent had an inordinate amount of lefties…
uh…
uh…
Maybe the Twins are just kind of dumb.
I think its a bit unwarranted to describe the Twins as “stupid” because Gardy, like virtually every manager in the Majors, makes some questionable decisions.
Are you serious Dave? Have you not even looked at the numbers published on this site? Harris has been slightly better than Punto at SS this season in about 100 fewer innings, Punto has not been good this year defensively or offensively, however, compared to our other 2B options, Harris, Casilla, Tolbert; Punto has been better offensively and defensively this year. In short, I think Punto WAS a borderline gold glover at short, but he hasn’t been this year, he’s been replacement level, which is about what Harris is, but with a better bat.
*cough* small sample size *cough*
*cough* incredibly small sample size *cough*
No kidding.
Anyway, the only reason Gardenhire doesn’t play Harris at second and Punto at short is because he believes Harris can’t turn double plays at second, which is all Gardenhire cares about when it comes to second basemen.
Harris had a lot of trouble last year making the turn on DP’s while playing second. The one DP a week Harris doesn’t turn isn’t worth the defensive loss of using a sub-optimal configuration, but that’s the primary reason.
Sorry for saying the same thing as you two minutes later…
That’s ok, it makes me look smarter if I’m not the only one saying it.
I think.
Harris made a couple REALLY flashy plays at short while Punto was hurt.
If I remember correctly, one of those two plays was pretty rangy. In the other play, Harris took one step to his left, did a belly flop, and made a flashy stab with his glove. Punto would have been in position and made it look ordinary.
As others have all ready said, he’s playing at short because he looks more comfortable there. And, as others have said, thats a pretty horrible reason to put him at short.
Anyway, I just thought I’d comment on the statement that punto “isn’t flashy”. It’s funny to me becuase one of the many complaints us minnesotans have about punto is that he has a tendency to make plays look harder than they should be. Back when I watched Baseball Tonight, I remember him being a regular on “webgems”. I even remember an interview when he admitted spending time on practice every day on “unconventional plays”.
Unless one thinks a player is particularly suited for SS or 2B it should be a wash. A true talent +10 SS should be +15 2B. A true talent -15 SS should be a -10 2B. Isn’t this the basis behind the position adjustment used to calculate WAR?
Granted a SS has a few more attempts but I’d guess the effect is small, on the order of a few runs. Not ideal, but hardly worth throwing a fit about. I thought Tango had an article about this but I couldn’t find it.
The Twins biggest problem isn’t their middle infield alignment, but that they don’t have better players than Punto and Harris.
I may be wrong, but it’s my understanding that position adjustments are used to resolve expected differences in offense rather than defense.
I don’t just look more comfortable at short. I am actually more comfortable at short. I’ve told Gardy this. This has been reported several times.
Also, if you were a Twins fan, you would realize that it’s a miracle that I’m playing at all. Gardenhire, for whatever reason, hates me. He wanted to leave me off the roster at the beginning of the year in favor of that fearsome tablesetter, Matt Tolbert. Twins fans have been begging Gardy to play me since last year, when I was lighting it up at the plate. Well, anyway, at least compared to Punto, Gardy’s not-so-secret lover. Could someone please tell him that my name isn’t Harry for God’s sake?
The Twins gave Punto a 2-year $8 million deal because Gardenhire wanted him. The Twins got rid of David Ortiz because Gardenhire wanted Doug Mientciewicz’ glove.
What’s the mystery about Gardenhire making silly lineup decisions? The man’s a moron.
“The Twins got rid of David Ortiz because Gardenhire wanted Doug Mientkiewicz’ glove.”
What would Mient’s glove have anything to do with Ortiz being let go? Ortiz failed as a Twin and was merely a DH. Mientkiewicz on the otherhand wasn’t too shabby of an offensive player at the time when Ortiz was a Twin and add in his defense and he was a better player than Ortiz was for them. Ortiz’ inability to stay healthy and produce at a level that they thought a DH should produce at is why he was let go.
Mient: .275/.367/.408 (.776) OPS+ 103
Ortiz: .266/.348/.461 (.809) OPS+ 107
Ortiz and Mientciewicz had nothing to do with each other.
part of the reason that Ortiz was let go was that the Twins had another DH-only tubby guy that had shown similar success at the plate with nearly no positional value (other than emergency catcher) and was cheaper. That guy’s name was Matt Lecroy. Obviously he didn’t pan out and they made the wrong decision.
the other part of the reason was that the Twins were just cheap.
Regarding Punto and Harris: It might be that Punto is just viewed as a temporary solution until a better player can be brought in (minors or trade) and they don’t want to be moving players around constantly. And 2B are in better supply than SS. but I don’t like it from a defensive alignment.
Why was Punto on the DL? Harris has an excellent arm, and if Punto can’t throw as well, that could be one reason Gardenhire prefers Harris at short.
Groin issues
For all you dogging Gardy’s decisions:
He has won the division 4 times in 7 years as manager of the Twins, having only one losing season during that time. He’s done it with a small market club, constantly having to manage young players.
I’m guessing he knows what he’s doing.
wow
You don’t think it could be despite rather than because of having Ron Gardenhire as manager that the Twins have been successful?
I always loved that one.
Yes, that’s always the old fallback when anyone questions a decision by Gardenhire. “Well, he’s won four division titles!”
The Twins have always won in spite of Gardenhire. When will there be a WPA for managers? Gardenhire might be one of the worst in the league.
Are you serious?
So you think if the Twins would have had a different manager over the last 7 years they would have been more successful? With the same budget, same turnover, same young players.
The fact that we’re talking about Nick Punto and Brendan Harris being starters on a contending team (again) proves my point.
Yeah Ray Ray, we are serious. Sure, Gardy’s not the worst manager in the game (looking at you, Trey Hillman). His players generally don’t underperform terribly, the clubhouse seems to have a good atmosphere, decent with the media, etc. But his overall strategy and tactical decisions are pretty piss poor, viz., sac bunting too much when it’s early in the game, putting poor hitters 2nd in the order, overusing his setup guys, not putting Nathan in at high leverage situations, and crucially underrating some decent players (e.g., Bartlett, Garza, Harris).
His small ball strategy costs the team runs and wins in the long term. Every good team has to put up with players like Punto and Harris in some positions (and by the way, neither of these players is all that terrible – look at their respective WAR’s over the past couple years and you’ll see that they’re almost league-average players). The 4 division titles were the results of possessing above-average, affordable talent, and playing in a somewhat weak division (with the exception of 2006).
The best baseball analysis emphasizes evaluation of process, not results. Dave’s got a big hard on for process-oriented analysis, and rightfully so. Looking just at the end product, and ignoring the more subtle components involved with the end product in any analytical process (whether in baseball, business/finance, etc.) is a poor strategy. It’s the kind of strategy that gives way to signing Gary Matthews, Jr. for $50 million or Barry Zito for $126 million or starting a war in Iraq (jk, kinda).
Does any MLB manager like to sac bunt early in the game more often than Ron Gardenhire?
If it works, it works. What’s the problem if you’re winning?
1) It doesn’t work. Researchers have run some very thorough simulations, and sac bunting is almost always a strategy that is going to cost the team a lot of runs over the course of a season.
2) They should be winning more. The Twins are not overachievers.
I’m going to answer my own question. Yes there is at least one, he works in Seattle. I tried removing the pitcher problem by using just AL. Below is a table with (Team’s SH) / (AL SH) by inning group. I was actually expecting the percentages for the Twins to be higher.
MIN SEA ’08 MIN
Innings 1-3 14.04% 19.30% 13.27%
Innings 4-6 5.48% 13.70% 10.00%
Innings 7-9 8.74% 9.71% 11.35%
Innings 10+ 16.67% 25.00% 3.45%
I realize that isn’t perfect because it counts pitchers and it counts bunts that aren’t called for by the manager but get marked as a sacrifice anyways. As a reference, so far in 2009 Twins had 1 SH by a pitcher and the Mariners had 2.
the table was spaced in my text box, sorry for the jumble
Gotta love “Minnesota nice” where being just good enough is A-OK.
I think it’s interesting that he says Punto “Isn’t flashy.”
Up until this year he was called “The Human Highlight Reel.”
But I guess he hasn’t really been flashy this year.