Comments on: The Punto/Harris Decision http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-puntoharris-decision/ Daily baseball statistical analysis and commentary Sun, 12 Feb 2012 17:38:57 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: Jesse http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-puntoharris-decision/#comment-81835 Jesse Mon, 22 Jun 2009 23:56:45 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=5624#comment-81835 I think it's interesting that he says Punto "Isn't flashy." Up until this year he was called "The Human Highlight Reel." But I guess he hasn't really been flashy this year. I think it’s interesting that he says Punto “Isn’t flashy.”

Up until this year he was called “The Human Highlight Reel.”

But I guess he hasn’t really been flashy this year.

]]> By: glassSheets http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-puntoharris-decision/#comment-81738 glassSheets Mon, 22 Jun 2009 00:28:38 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=5624#comment-81738 the table was spaced in my text box, sorry for the jumble the table was spaced in my text box, sorry for the jumble

]]> By: glassSheets http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-puntoharris-decision/#comment-81736 glassSheets Mon, 22 Jun 2009 00:19:31 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=5624#comment-81736 I'm going to answer my own question. Yes there is at least one, he works in Seattle. I tried removing the pitcher problem by using just AL. Below is a table with (Team's SH) / (AL SH) by inning group. I was actually expecting the percentages for the Twins to be higher. MIN SEA '08 MIN Innings 1-3 14.04% 19.30% 13.27% Innings 4-6 5.48% 13.70% 10.00% Innings 7-9 8.74% 9.71% 11.35% Innings 10+ 16.67% 25.00% 3.45% I realize that isn't perfect because it counts pitchers and it counts bunts that aren't called for by the manager but get marked as a sacrifice anyways. As a reference, so far in 2009 Twins had 1 SH by a pitcher and the Mariners had 2. I’m going to answer my own question. Yes there is at least one, he works in Seattle. I tried removing the pitcher problem by using just AL. Below is a table with (Team’s SH) / (AL SH) by inning group. I was actually expecting the percentages for the Twins to be higher.

MIN SEA ’08 MIN
Innings 1-3 14.04% 19.30% 13.27%
Innings 4-6 5.48% 13.70% 10.00%
Innings 7-9 8.74% 9.71% 11.35%
Innings 10+ 16.67% 25.00% 3.45%

I realize that isn’t perfect because it counts pitchers and it counts bunts that aren’t called for by the manager but get marked as a sacrifice anyways. As a reference, so far in 2009 Twins had 1 SH by a pitcher and the Mariners had 2.

]]> By: twinsfan http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-puntoharris-decision/#comment-81614 twinsfan Sun, 21 Jun 2009 07:07:37 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=5624#comment-81614 Gotta love "Minnesota nice" where being just good enough is A-OK. Gotta love “Minnesota nice” where being just good enough is A-OK.

]]> By: Mike I http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-puntoharris-decision/#comment-81592 Mike I Sun, 21 Jun 2009 04:05:58 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=5624#comment-81592 1) It doesn't work. Researchers have run some very thorough simulations, and sac bunting is almost always a strategy that is going to cost the team a lot of runs over the course of a season. 2) They should be winning more. The Twins are not overachievers. 1) It doesn’t work. Researchers have run some very thorough simulations, and sac bunting is almost always a strategy that is going to cost the team a lot of runs over the course of a season.

2) They should be winning more. The Twins are not overachievers.

]]> By: Mike I http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-puntoharris-decision/#comment-81591 Mike I Sun, 21 Jun 2009 04:01:46 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=5624#comment-81591 Yeah Ray Ray, we are serious. Sure, Gardy's not the worst manager in the game (looking at you, Trey Hillman). His players generally don't underperform terribly, the clubhouse seems to have a good atmosphere, decent with the media, etc. But his overall strategy and tactical decisions are pretty piss poor, viz., sac bunting too much when it's early in the game, putting poor hitters 2nd in the order, overusing his setup guys, not putting Nathan in at high leverage situations, and crucially underrating some decent players (e.g., Bartlett, Garza, Harris). His small ball strategy costs the team runs and wins in the long term. Every good team has to put up with players like Punto and Harris in some positions (and by the way, neither of these players is all that terrible - look at their respective WAR's over the past couple years and you'll see that they're almost league-average players). The 4 division titles were the results of possessing above-average, affordable talent, and playing in a somewhat weak division (with the exception of 2006). The best baseball analysis emphasizes evaluation of process, not results. Dave's got a big hard on for process-oriented analysis, and rightfully so. Looking just at the end product, and ignoring the more subtle components involved with the end product in any analytical process (whether in baseball, business/finance, etc.) is a poor strategy. It's the kind of strategy that gives way to signing Gary Matthews, Jr. for $50 million or Barry Zito for $126 million or starting a war in Iraq (jk, kinda). Yeah Ray Ray, we are serious. Sure, Gardy’s not the worst manager in the game (looking at you, Trey Hillman). His players generally don’t underperform terribly, the clubhouse seems to have a good atmosphere, decent with the media, etc. But his overall strategy and tactical decisions are pretty piss poor, viz., sac bunting too much when it’s early in the game, putting poor hitters 2nd in the order, overusing his setup guys, not putting Nathan in at high leverage situations, and crucially underrating some decent players (e.g., Bartlett, Garza, Harris).

His small ball strategy costs the team runs and wins in the long term. Every good team has to put up with players like Punto and Harris in some positions (and by the way, neither of these players is all that terrible – look at their respective WAR’s over the past couple years and you’ll see that they’re almost league-average players). The 4 division titles were the results of possessing above-average, affordable talent, and playing in a somewhat weak division (with the exception of 2006).

The best baseball analysis emphasizes evaluation of process, not results. Dave’s got a big hard on for process-oriented analysis, and rightfully so. Looking just at the end product, and ignoring the more subtle components involved with the end product in any analytical process (whether in baseball, business/finance, etc.) is a poor strategy. It’s the kind of strategy that gives way to signing Gary Matthews, Jr. for $50 million or Barry Zito for $126 million or starting a war in Iraq (jk, kinda).

]]> By: RayRay http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-puntoharris-decision/#comment-81575 RayRay Sun, 21 Jun 2009 01:22:48 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=5624#comment-81575 If it works, it works. What's the problem if you're winning? If it works, it works. What’s the problem if you’re winning?

]]> By: RayRay http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-puntoharris-decision/#comment-81574 RayRay Sun, 21 Jun 2009 01:21:34 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=5624#comment-81574 Are you serious? So you think if the Twins would have had a different manager over the last 7 years they would have been more successful? With the same budget, same turnover, same young players. The fact that we're talking about Nick Punto and Brendan Harris being starters on a contending team (again) proves my point. Are you serious?

So you think if the Twins would have had a different manager over the last 7 years they would have been more successful? With the same budget, same turnover, same young players.

The fact that we’re talking about Nick Punto and Brendan Harris being starters on a contending team (again) proves my point.

]]> By: glassSheets http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-puntoharris-decision/#comment-81556 glassSheets Sat, 20 Jun 2009 20:13:00 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=5624#comment-81556 Does any MLB manager like to sac bunt early in the game more often than Ron Gardenhire? Does any MLB manager like to sac bunt early in the game more often than Ron Gardenhire?

]]> By: Scott http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-puntoharris-decision/#comment-81551 Scott Sat, 20 Jun 2009 18:46:10 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=5624#comment-81551 I always loved that one. Yes, that's always the old fallback when anyone questions a decision by Gardenhire. "Well, he's won four division titles!" The Twins have always won in spite of Gardenhire. When will there be a WPA for managers? Gardenhire might be one of the worst in the league. I always loved that one.

Yes, that’s always the old fallback when anyone questions a decision by Gardenhire. “Well, he’s won four division titles!”

The Twins have always won in spite of Gardenhire. When will there be a WPA for managers? Gardenhire might be one of the worst in the league.

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