Comments on: The Red Sox/Jason Bay Rumor http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-red-soxjason-bay-rumor/ Daily baseball statistical analysis and commentary Wed, 17 Mar 2010 04:44:24 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.2 hourly 1 By: Kyle http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-red-soxjason-bay-rumor/#comment-107337 Kyle Wed, 11 Nov 2009 07:24:56 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=10851#comment-107337 UZR is an overrated stat... just look at how well Holliday made that easy play to keep the Cardinals from blowing the gem Adam Wainwright pitched. As for arm, early when he was coming up, Bay was scouted as having a solid, accurate arm. And Holliday is an E-machine. He's never once had more than 10 assists(Bay 3 times, nearly 4 times) and he makes the easy plays. You think Holliday can handle the pressure of Fenway? We saw how well he did in the playoffs this last time... and he is going to do definitely overpaid. Holliday is a lil faster on the bases, but Bay is an underrated base runner. Also Bay seems comfortable in Boston. It'd be a huge mistake to bring in Holliday and have have him pull the same sh!t he did for the A's. UZR is an overrated stat… just look at how well Holliday made that easy play to keep the Cardinals from blowing the gem Adam Wainwright pitched. As for arm, early when he was coming up, Bay was scouted as having a solid, accurate arm. And Holliday is an E-machine. He’s never once had more than 10 assists(Bay 3 times, nearly 4 times) and he makes the easy plays.

You think Holliday can handle the pressure of Fenway? We saw how well he did in the playoffs this last time… and he is going to do definitely overpaid. Holliday is a lil faster on the bases, but Bay is an underrated base runner. Also Bay seems comfortable in Boston. It’d be a huge mistake to bring in Holliday and have have him pull the same sh!t he did for the A’s.

]]> By: Brian_g http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-red-soxjason-bay-rumor/#comment-107232 Brian_g Tue, 10 Nov 2009 19:40:26 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=10851#comment-107232 Fielding prowess for leftfielders in general is probably the least important of any position save perhaps pitchers. This is doubly so in Fenway. Learning to read the Green Monster is more important than range. Too many people take UZR as gospel when it SHOULD be used as a general guide. Fielding prowess for leftfielders in general is probably the least important of any position save perhaps pitchers.

This is doubly so in Fenway. Learning to read the Green Monster is more important than range.

Too many people take UZR as gospel when it SHOULD be used as a general guide.

]]> By: Judy http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-red-soxjason-bay-rumor/#comment-106945 Judy Mon, 09 Nov 2009 15:07:24 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=10851#comment-106945 FWIW, the Boston media guys who usually seem to know what's really going on, like Silverman and Bradford, don't believe that the Red Sox have made Jason Bay any offer of 4 guaranteed years or that they have any intention at all of making him one. I think the most likely scenario here is that the Red Sox have not made and will not make Jason Bay any offer that he is likely to accept, unless the market turns out to be less than anticipated. FWIW, the Boston media guys who usually seem to know what’s really going on, like Silverman and Bradford, don’t believe that the Red Sox have made Jason Bay any offer of 4 guaranteed years or that they have any intention at all of making him one. I think the most likely scenario here is that the Red Sox have not made and will not make Jason Bay any offer that he is likely to accept, unless the market turns out to be less than anticipated.

]]> By: Joe R http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-red-soxjason-bay-rumor/#comment-106939 Joe R Mon, 09 Nov 2009 14:48:59 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=10851#comment-106939 There's always the fact that the Red Sox have $ as well. Maybe they think fair market for Bay is 4 year / $52 mil, but if they have to spend an extra 1 or 2 mil a year to reign him in, or replace him with an inferior player, well, it's obvious what they'll do, and what they should do. Given his similar batters, 4 years is pretty much the shelf life of Jason Bay. There’s always the fact that the Red Sox have $ as well. Maybe they think fair market for Bay is 4 year / $52 mil, but if they have to spend an extra 1 or 2 mil a year to reign him in, or replace him with an inferior player, well, it’s obvious what they’ll do, and what they should do. Given his similar batters, 4 years is pretty much the shelf life of Jason Bay.

]]> By: joser http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-red-soxjason-bay-rumor/#comment-106775 joser Sat, 07 Nov 2009 19:45:56 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=10851#comment-106775 Yeah, but because Beltre's defensive abilities go unseen/underappreciated, and Safeco has blunted his offense, he may actually end up getting paid less than Figgins. Which would be a tremendous value, because you're right: Beltre is far and away better than Figgins. Yeah, but because Beltre’s defensive abilities go unseen/underappreciated, and Safeco has blunted his offense, he may actually end up getting paid less than Figgins. Which would be a tremendous value, because you’re right: Beltre is far and away better than Figgins.

]]> By: joser http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-red-soxjason-bay-rumor/#comment-106774 joser Sat, 07 Nov 2009 19:43:00 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=10851#comment-106774 This is also the Heyman who, on the basis of <i>one game's observation</i>, concluded a couple of years ago that <b><a href="http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2007/writers/jon_heyman/09/04/scoop.tuesday/1.html" rel="nofollow">Yuniesky Betancourt was going to dethrone Jeter</a></b>. <blockquote> ”After watching Mariners shortstop Yuniesky Betancourt on Monday, I have to assume Derek Jeter’s three-year Gold Glove reign is over” </blockquote> Basically, Heyman can be considered useful as a confirming second source for simple facts. As a primary source, or for any sort of analysis, he should be ignored. This is also the Heyman who, on the basis of one game’s observation, concluded a couple of years ago that Yuniesky Betancourt was going to dethrone Jeter.

”After watching Mariners shortstop Yuniesky Betancourt on Monday, I have to assume Derek Jeter’s three-year Gold Glove reign is over”

Basically, Heyman can be considered useful as a confirming second source for simple facts. As a primary source, or for any sort of analysis, he should be ignored.

]]> By: joser http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-red-soxjason-bay-rumor/#comment-106770 joser Sat, 07 Nov 2009 19:34:19 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=10851#comment-106770 But range factor calculations would certainly be easy, since they'd reduce to the formula for the Schwarzschild radius... for which we need to know nothing more than the mass of the fielder. But range factor calculations would certainly be easy, since they’d reduce to the formula for the Schwarzschild radius… for which we need to know nothing more than the mass of the fielder.

]]> By: joser http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-red-soxjason-bay-rumor/#comment-106769 joser Sat, 07 Nov 2009 19:30:50 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=10851#comment-106769 Not necessarily, if it was a quantum black hole. We'd have to know its mass to figure out whether the inward flux of captured matter was enough to more than balance the rate it was evaporating due to Hawking radiation. A quantum black hole wouldn't remain in left field, however: it would fall towards the earth's center, where it would orbit, gobbling a particle now and then (and radiating a particle now and then). But it would take all the fielding data with it, thus compounding the information paradox (and perhaps providing an explanation for the oddities of UZR in left field at Fenway). Not necessarily, if it was a quantum black hole. We’d have to know its mass to figure out whether the inward flux of captured matter was enough to more than balance the rate it was evaporating due to Hawking radiation. A quantum black hole wouldn’t remain in left field, however: it would fall towards the earth’s center, where it would orbit, gobbling a particle now and then (and radiating a particle now and then). But it would take all the fielding data with it, thus compounding the information paradox (and perhaps providing an explanation for the oddities of UZR in left field at Fenway).

]]> By: joser http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-red-soxjason-bay-rumor/#comment-106600 joser Fri, 06 Nov 2009 20:20:30 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=10851#comment-106600 <blockquote> Guy had to cheer someone up there. Little surprised it wasn’t the M’s, but odds are no one up there cared about the M’s until he was a teenager </blockquote> Well, who you cheer "up there" in Trail is the Canucks or the Flames (and the games you actually go to are the WHL games in Cranbrook or Kelowna, or Junior games in Castlegar.) If he was able to watch MLB on TV in those days he was getting nothing but Jays games until the postseason, so he would've seen the Red Sox a lot more often than the Mariners. (Seattle and Trail may be about as far apart as Dallas and Houston, but it takes a solid 8 hr day of driving through mountains to get there.) But last I checked infants (even future MLB all-stars) don't choose, buy, and put on their own "onesies" so I suspect there was some parental indoctrination going on. If he joined Red Sox nation as a kid it was via the only legitimate route open to those outside New England: by inheritance.

Guy had to cheer someone up there. Little surprised it wasn’t the M’s, but odds are no one up there cared about the M’s until he was a teenager

Well, who you cheer “up there” in Trail is the Canucks or the Flames (and the games you actually go to are the WHL games in Cranbrook or Kelowna, or Junior games in Castlegar.) If he was able to watch MLB on TV in those days he was getting nothing but Jays games until the postseason, so he would’ve seen the Red Sox a lot more often than the Mariners. (Seattle and Trail may be about as far apart as Dallas and Houston, but it takes a solid 8 hr day of driving through mountains to get there.)

But last I checked infants (even future MLB all-stars) don’t choose, buy, and put on their own “onesies” so I suspect there was some parental indoctrination going on. If he joined Red Sox nation as a kid it was via the only legitimate route open to those outside New England: by inheritance.

]]> By: wobatus http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-red-soxjason-bay-rumor/#comment-106542 wobatus Fri, 06 Nov 2009 16:57:26 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=10851#comment-106542 I simply do not trust the fielding assessments and dollar values placed thereon here. Yes, I understand lack of errors is not the be all and end all of fielding, but 15 assists, no errors, 310 putouts. Raul Ibanez, a generally acknowledged poor fielder, 213 putouts, 9 assists, 2 errors (I don't think he got an error for the ball that hit his glove in the series), lower speed scores, lower range factor...his uzr/150 is 10.7, Bay's -11.2. Sure, there can be anomalies, but that seems pretty glaring. Bay may not be a great fielder, but I don't think his fielding could be costing Boston very much, at least this year. I simply do not trust the fielding assessments and dollar values placed thereon here. Yes, I understand lack of errors is not the be all and end all of fielding, but 15 assists, no errors, 310 putouts. Raul Ibanez, a generally acknowledged poor fielder, 213 putouts, 9 assists, 2 errors (I don’t think he got an error for the ball that hit his glove in the series), lower speed scores, lower range factor…his uzr/150 is 10.7, Bay’s -11.2. Sure, there can be anomalies, but that seems pretty glaring. Bay may not be a great fielder, but I don’t think his fielding could be costing Boston very much, at least this year.

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