The Roy Oswalt Trade: Houston’s New Prospects
The Astros picked two hitters in the first round of the 2010 draft: a toolsy up-the-middle player with boom-or-bust written all over him (Delino DeShields Jr.), and a college slugger with defensive versatility, if not defensive talent (Mike Kvasnicka). In 2009, the team’s first pick was a toolsy shortstop from California (Jiovanni Mier). In 2008, the first year that scouting director Bobby Heck helmed the draft room, the team took a “safe” college hitter in the first round (Jason Castro), before going for a raw, toolsy high school outfielder in the second round (Jay Austin).
Pardon if this is repetitive, but by trading Roy Oswalt to the Phillies today, the Astros acquired a Dominican shortstop with some raw, exciting tools (Jonathan Villar), and a former first-round slugger whose been relegated to first base (Brett Wallace). Clearly, Houston believes in a certain kind of diversification of their prospect portfolio. This is a good thing. The bad thing is that they don’t seem particularly adept at talent evaluation. Let’s ignore the fact that Kvasnicka is struggling out of the gate, or that Jiovanni Mier has a .610 OPS in his full-season debut, or that Jason Castro‘s offensive potential seems lower than ever.
The Astros have simply not added a single position player to their system with star potential in Bobby Heck’s tenure. Not a single player mentioned above is ever going to profile as someone that could contribute 5 WAR in the Major Leagues. Trading Oswalt was one of the team’s few opportunities to find its next star, and they didn’t do it. This is a team mining for role players when they don’t have the budget to find their foundation pieces through free agency. It’s terribly misguided management.
Villar is a fun prospect, a switch-hitting athlete with the rare combination of speed and arm that should allow him to stick at shortstop. But he doesn’t profile to hit for power, strikes out very often, and will need to learn a lot to develop some patience. Stars don’t ever have to overcome that many obstacles. Brett Wallace is a smooth swinger that most people believe can hit .300 at the Major League level. But he’s not even a good defender at first base, his walk rate isn’t improving, and in 869 plate appearances in Triple-A, his ISO is just .185.
The Astros didn’t need to acquire three players for the Roy Oswalt trade to be a success. They needed to acquire one star, and it’s hard to imagine a future where Villar, Wallace or even J.A. Happ reach that level.
Certainly, the best chance at someone doing so is Villar. It isn’t a stretch to believe the toolsy shortstop could develop patience down the road, as he entered this season with 47 walks in 410 career plate appearances. This season, in his first test at full-season baseball, the ratio has slipped to 6.2%. But there is potential there. Scouts also like Villar’s defensive actions, even despite his 42 errors in 99 games. Errors are a part of minor league baseball, but with his speed and arm, sticking at shortstop should be easy. He also should become a very good baserunner, capable of adding 5 runs per season with his legs.
The problems in Villar’s game are all offensive. His career strikeout rate stands at a robust 27.4%, so for example, this season he’s needed to maintain a .369 BABIP just to post a .272 batting average. Even with his speed, this won’t be easy to maintain at higher levels. Secondly, Villar really doesn’t have a swing that profiles to hit a lot of power. Minor League Splits has his groundball rate at 60.7% this season, so he’ll need a change in both swing and approach to hit for power. It’s just not going to happen. Even if Villar has 600 plate appearances at shortstop, and even if he develops into a +7.5 shortstop and +5 baserunner, I don’t think we’ll ever see him at the +10 wRAA mark he would need to reach 5 WAR.
Wallace is pretty much just the opposite. His game is so dependent on offense, that even getting to 2-3 WAR consistently will be an issue. After Lance Berkman moves out of Houston, Wallace is the future at first base. He’s not good there, and is surely somewhere worse than 2.5 runs below average. To even reach 3 WAR, he’d have to produce 25 runs with the bat to be worth three wins. And given the fact that he’s never walked 50 times or hit 25 home runs in any season, getting to a .370 wOBA seems impossible.
Houston didn’t do well today. With their best chance to finally acquire a player they could build their future around, they acquired two players with role player ceilings.
Tomorrow, we’ll tackle the Wallace-for-Gose swap, as well as Wynn Pelzer, the Baltimore Orioles acquisition for Miguel Tejada.
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Kvasnicka was actually the compensation round pick.
Mike Foltynewicz was their second first-round pick, at no. 19 overall.
I’m a little confused about the valuation of Brett Wallace. Some people seem to think that he’s a major league ready 1b with 20-30 hr power, who doesn’t walk enough but has bat enough to make up for it, and that he’s a good get for the Astros. Meanwhile, your major concerns are the defense (and I’m sure you know more about his minor league defensive stats than any of us do), that walk rate again, and also his 20-30 hr power, which you say he will have difficulty getting to 25 hr, and that he’s a role player. That is such a huge difference in prospect valuation, what am I missing?
I think people aren’t comprehending how not valuable the player they are projecting is. Wallace could be a 25 home run hitter in 2011 and not be worth three wins above replacement. And the math isn’t even hard. Say he gets 600 at-bats (+20 replacement), all at first base (-12.5 position adjustment), where he is bad defensively (-5 UZR) and hits like Juan Rivera did last season (.287/.332/.478 with 25 homers), which is only +10 with the bat. We add it all up, and Wallace is only worth 1.3 WAR.
Why do you assume Brett Wallace will be below average at first base defensively? He just switched positions, so right now he needs reps. But a third baseman moving over to first base should, in the long run, be a plus defensive player, especially when you have good hands and instincts like Wallace does.
As usual it’s the defensive portion of the equation that’s the gray area. How is his defense being measured? Has minor league UZR suddenly gained credibility when I wasn’t looking? Is this based on deatiled scoutinf reports of his defense at LV this year?
Oswalt was a guy signed for more than or close to his worth. Shouldn’t Fangraphs be weighing Oswalt’s actual trade value against what Houston got, instead of setting some impossible standard whereby Houston needed to miraculously trade a declining, highly paid star for an up-and-coming, lowly paid star?
Well, the first problem is that it’s impossible to know the other offers, so we’re left to assume based on what teams have gotten for similar pitchers in past near-Deadline deals. And, by that standard, Houston’s haul isn’t good. (And, as the article states, given that their organization is bereft of talent, they needed one guy that could become a star).
I wonder if the perception meets the reality here. I can’t call to mind all the major pitchers dealt recently, but what are the comparables where a team got so much more than Houston got here for an 3 or 4 win, highly paid older pitcher like Oswalt?
Just to belabor the point, as the fan of a team that might have used someone like Oswalt (the Twins), I would have absolutely flipped if the Twins had given up a prospect with star potential for him.
The Astros could have bought that top-notch prospect by chipping in more than $11 million in the deal. If they had paid out more cash and given up on the notion that they had to plug someone into their rotation right away, they could have essentially “bought” someone like Jonathan Singleton or Shelby Miller.
The Astros, moreover, didn’t help themselves by essentially refusing to deal Oswalt to the Cardinals. By insisting that they didn’t want to trade him within the division, they eliminated 1 possible trade partner thereby lowering Oswalt’s price.
They lowered Oswalt’s price and chose quantity over quality when they refused to pay more of Oswalt’s salary.
The Phillies will pay approximately $12M to Oswalt for the rest of this season and next season. It would be interesting to see how Oswalt’s projected excess value compares to expected value of the 3 players coming back.
Yes, and I think by that standard, Houston wouldn’t look so bad. Say they get three seasons of Wallace producing 2 WAR, and then dump him when he’s arb-eligible. They got six wins above replacement in three years for $1 million. So, conservatively, they got something like $25 million in value, which is probably more than the Phillies will get for Oswalt. But in that situation, isn’t the trade still not good for Houston?
This gets to the point that it seems like Houston’s in a position where they should have been able to kick in some salary and get better prospects from one of the hungrier teams in the Oswalt sweepstakes. I don’t know everyone who was interested, but one of the midmarket teams (Reds?) might have given up better prospects to go all in if they would have kicked up some cash. From a dollars and cents standpoint the deal makes some sense to me. From a let’s radically move forward on the field, not so much.
But isn’t this to largely dismiss the opportunity cost in taking on additional payroll commitments? While Houston doesn’t have a lot of these considerations because they really should be getting young and cheap, banking for the future. So, while Oswalt was a nice piece, he was pretty much completely worthless to the Astros.
On the other hand for the Phillies, taking on Oswalt pushes them to the point where they are going to have a very hard time spending anymore money. So what does that mean for addressing needs coming from people aging out of usefulness (Ibanez) or walking (Werth)? I don’t know the entire situation going into 2011 for the Phils, but between Utley, Howard, Ibanez, Holladay and Oswalt, that has to be a pretty large chunk of their payroll limit.
So I’m left a little confused how you call this a bad deal from the Astros. They gave up something that was expensive that they really don’t need at all, and got a couple cheap useful players. Maybe they won’t help them compete by the time the Astros can ever make a run, but you gotta put someone on the field. And if you’re going cheap, you might as well try to make it a half-way decent cheap, so to retain a little bit of respectability with the fans. I guess the only way I can say claiming this was a bad deal is if you know or suspect they could have gotten more for Oswalt. I don’t really think there was much out there for them, particularly given that Oswalt had veto power.
I’d say this is more or less a “meh” (yes that’s a the technical term) deal for the Phils. It makes them better now, but they do pay for it. And this was a decent to good deal for the Astros.
While Bryan makes some good points – the fact is Oswalt had a full no trade clause and it would not have been simple or easy to expand the number of potential teams to deal him to.
Very good write up. However, I still think a lot of people are writing Brett Wallace off too soon.
I don’t think Bryan “wrote Wallace off.” He simply asserted that Wallace is unlikely to be a star and explained, pretty thoroughly, that Wallace is likely going to have to hit really well in order to be even an above average player. I don’t call that “writing Wallace off.”
Wallace, a guy on the fast track to the big leagues, is now with his 4th organization in less than 13 months and was in AAA this time a year ago. The Jays have refused to promote him so far despite Lyle Overbay “producing” 0.7 WAR two-thirds of the way through the season. Something’s amiss here.
That’s what I’ve been talking about with Ryan Howard … a 4WAR player that’s an MVP candidate due to being a power hitting 1B with below defense.
Wallace at 2WAR as a cleanup hitting 1B with bad defense would be a pretty decent middle of the lineup hitter, probably .280-30-90 type guy. Hitting less than that doesn’t kill his WAR as much as if he played a defensive position.
1Bs are “hitters first, fielders second” almost to the extreme of DH.
A league average power hitting 1B is still a pretty good force in the lineup, since walks are not as valuable there (4 or 5 spot) and the K’s are as much of a hinderence.
Like I said Howard can hit 40 HR and have 130 RBI and still just be a 4 WAR player because of lack of walks and BA (wOBA), and poor defense at a low-defense priority position.
But that’s the point – even without WAR, Howard isn’t an MVP candidate.
Look at Chase Utley between 07-09 and Howard between the same time period:
Utley – 301-395-536 (931 OPS, 138 OPS+)
Howard – 266-363-565 (928 OPS, 136 OPS+)
How in the world can Ryan Howard be considered an MVP candidate when his teammate, who plays a critical, up the middle position (and plays it significantly above average, mind you) is outhitting him? Howard hit a shitload more home runs, sure. But Utley was still more productive over a 3 year period, and that offense at 2B is much rarer than Howard’s bat at first.
Even without WAR, even without looking at defense, just looking strictly at offense for 1B – over the past 3 years Howard ranks 10th in wOBA for 1B. His 383 wOBA over that time is impressive, but when you have 7 guys at or above 400 wOBA how can Howard be considered an MVP candidate?
I know you said you didn’t like wOBA earlier, but Howard’s third in ISO power. A lack of walks isn’t an excuse for having a poor wOBA. I mean Dunn has a pretty similar ISO over the same time period and he’s managed to walk a lot more to make up for the poor average.
I agree that WAR has some flaws, especially on the defensive side for certain positions, but calling Howard an MVP candidate to show WAR isn’t a good stat isn’t the way to do it. Because your example actually proves WAR is working fine, because Howard is not one of the best 1B even looking strictly at offense.
As for Wallace you’re really overvaluing him. His BB% has dropped in recent years, he’s a 38% GB hitter (which essentially cuts down on his chances of hitting HR’s cause he hits so many GB’s), and outside of the hitters paradise of Las Vegas he hasn’t shown much power. I don’t know where you’re getting such high OBP’s or sluggings for him in your projection.
MVP Voting – Ryan Howard
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2006: 1st
2007: 5th
2008: 2nd
2009: 3rd
I have NO idea what you are talking about.
This year he is on pace to hit .299 – 37 – 130.
If you think that if the Phils win the NLE, with Pujols having a “down” year, then I suggest you meet something called “reality”. (Also Utley has and will miss a chunk of the season, the same chunk that cost AP5 an MVP in 06).
He will finish top 5. I wasn’t asking whether people thought, based on sabermetrics, he *should* be an MVP candidate. I just said he IS an MVP candidate, because history and reality support that.
I like wOBA, and WAR, for a lot of reasons … but a classic and elite power hitter is not going to be proficient in those metrics. They don’t walk (nor are they often asked to), and they don’t hit for a high average, and generally are not good defenders. But, they do well what they are asked to do … hit a boatload of bombs, drive in runs, and help their team win.
I am not talking about how things could or should be in a “perfect statistical world”. I’m talking about how it is NOW, and conversing within the realm of reality.
I do, however, agree that Utley is tremendously under-valued and under-appreciated by the BBWA.
Again, I’m not sure what you’re talking about.
I said “If he were a 2WAR player, his stat line would likely be .280-30-90″.
I said that because [1] he doesn’t walk, and [2] he doesn’t play good D, so ALL of his value comes from BA and HR.
It’s that simple. Really.
He has shown an ability to hit for a decent average and hit HRs. That will play well in HOU for a RH 1B. They’re not going to ask him to walk a lot and bat 2nd, or try and make more contact and bat .350.
They are going to ask him to try and be a brute, ala Mark Reynolds.
Sorry the above post was in response to this comment (yours)
“I don’t know where you’re getting such high OBP’s or sluggings for him in your projection.”
Mark,
Before we get there …
I am NOT making a prediction of .280-30-90 for Wallace.
I was saying/explaining that the only way he likely gets to 2WAR (if he does) is with a stat line similar to that.
He’s not gonna put up big wOBA or defense numbers, so he’s gonna need to hit the long ball and bat a little higher than someone like Mark Reynolds.
He could likely hit 40 HRs and have NO shot at 5 WAR.
“If you think that if the Phils win the NLE, with Pujols having a “down” year, then I suggest you meet something called “reality”. ”
Should read: “If you think the Phils win in the NLE, with Pujols having a “down” year, that Howard won’t be an MVP candidate (top 5 voting), then I suggest you meet something called reality.
He could be in the top 5 even without the Phils winning the division.
Circle:
There’s a difference between being voted for the MVP, and deserving to be voted in as an MVP. Just looking at the 3 year stats I have posted, Howard did not deserve to be voted for as highly as he was. He simply wasn’t one of the best players in the National League.
“f you think the Phils win in the NLE, with Pujols having a “down” year, that Howard won’t be an MVP candidate (top 5 voting), then I suggest you meet something called reality..”
What are you talking about? Pujols is still out hitting Howard despite it being a down year. I must not be understanding what you’re saying, because if you’re suggesting Howard has outhit Pujols this year than I think you’re the one who needs the dose of reality. Last time I checked a 943 OPS and a 394 wOBA were better than an 891 OPS and a 379 wOBA. Hell, even if we focus on HR’s because as you claim that’s what made Howard so valuable…they both have 23. So it’s not like Howard’s out slugging him either. In fact, as of right now Pujols’ ISO is higher than Howard, so Pujols is hitting for more raw power, and doing a better job of getting on base. So how exactly would the Phils downgrade by getting Pujols?
If you’re suggesting that the voters will consider Howard a top 5 player in the league, I could care less about that. The awards in general have been a laughing stock for a long time. I don’t believe Howard is the best 1B in the NL, and if you replaced Howard with Pujols than the Phils would be a better team.
“He will finish top 5. I wasn’t asking whether people thought, based on sabermetrics, he *should* be an MVP candidate. I just said he IS an MVP candidate, because history and reality support that”
Actually based on sabemetrics, Howard shouldn’t be an MVP candidate for the reasons I listed before. You know, cause he’s not the best 1B in the NL. I don’t think he’s ever led the NL in wOBA or OPS. In fact, if you used sabermetrics than Utley would be the better MVP candidate. So I’m not sure what you’re arguing. Again, if it’s about the voters making him a top 5 MVP candidate, so what? The voters get orgasms over high RBI totals. And while I’m sure you’ll argue that oh saber overvalues wOBA and WAR, I’ve already said I’m not a huge fan of either. But I can respect that they’re better metrics than RBI or HR’s for evaluating offense.
“I like wOBA, and WAR, for a lot of reasons … but a classic and elite power hitter is not going to be proficient in those metrics.”
Than maybe that tells us that they’re not as good at hitting as we thought. Adam Dunn is a very similar player to Howard in the “classic slugger” sense – poor BA, high power. But he still manages to post good walk rates. Why should Howard get a free pass on this issue because he doesn’t take a walk? Ok that was a lame pun, but the point is Howard’s low OBP compared to other sluggers shouldn’t be ignored.
“They don’t walk (nor are they often asked to), and they don’t hit for a high average, and generally are not good defenders. But, they do well what they are asked to do … hit a boatload of bombs, drive in runs, and help their team win.”"
You can hit for power and still be selective with your walks. At the end of the day, not making an out via a walk is valuable regardless of your skillset.
Bad analysis. Stay objective with Wallace. He is a converted 3B who is JUST LEARNING to play 1B. It’s only his third year in pro ball. Compared to last year, his BB rate has dropped from 8.8% to 7.4% this year. His K rate has risen from 21.8% to 22.9% this year. Not good. But not bad considering he is learning a new position. His ISO is up this year, which should be expected for a 23 year old who already had more than a half season of AAA experience under his belt.
You can project him for below average defense at 1B. And you can’t imply he’s incapable of reaching 25 HR in a season. He’s only had one full season – 2009, where he split time between three stops and two teams and hit 20 HR in under 600 PA. He had less than 300 PA in 2008 and less than 400 so far this year. So to make a statement like “And given the fact that he’s never walked 50 times or hit 25 home runs in any season, getting to a .370 wOBA seems impossible.” is just bad analysis.
The fact of the matter is that the package Houston got is a win just in terms of surplas value. Period.
Your job is not to play armchair GM dude. Your job is to present an unbiased representation of the deal, from an analytical and statistical standpoint. And at that, you failed.
I conceded in this thread that he MIGHT hit 25 home runs one day. But even then, that doesn’t get him to a .370 wOBA.
You can talk about his offense regressing and his defense being bad because he’s learning a new position, but you don’t back it up with any empirical evidence.
He’s not in good shape. He’s never been good at defense. He’s never walked much as a professional, nor has he shown the kind of power that scouts once saw.
Far more needs to change for you to be right than for me. I’m presenting an analysis of what the player he’s shown to be projects to in the Major Leagues. You’re hoping that because of factors that you inappropriately relate to each other, he becomes a different player in a year. Who’s using bad analysis?
I read that he is in really good shape. The ‘mass’ you are referring to is primarily muscle, not fat.
Yeah, there’s nothing about Wallace that is “out of shape”. He looks ungainly because of his incredibly stocky lower half, but he actually runs very well and I’ve never heard or read a report criticizing his conditioning. The walk rate is concerning, and his eventual power ceilign is questionable for a 1B, but I don’t think you’re as familiar with Wallace as you’d lead us to believe if you’re saying he’s out of shape, Bryan.
Just like Bryan says, there’s no evidence to back your claim. Also, as someone who has made the switch from 3b to 1b at a reasonably high level of baseball, it’s really not difficult… the switch from say LF to 3B or 2B to 3B is for more difficult and requires much more adjustment and learning.
He has fewer than 100 walks in more than 1200 minor league PAs. He has a BB rate as a professional of 7.3%. At that rate, he’d better develop A LOT of power b/c if he hits like Brandon Phillips, he’s not going to be a very good first baseman even if he becomes average defensively.
It’s the same reason why Miggy is a triple Crown threat and WPA monster, but will never be atop the WAR leaderboard. He’d need to hit .400 with 60 HR to do that.
I really don’t know what you’re arguing. There are tons of good-hitting first baseman. Many also tend to hurt their team’s ability to prevent runs. We need to adjust for that. Do you not agree?
Yes, I too remember those years that Albert Pujols led the league in WAR by hitting .400 with 60 HR.
This is where people need to read comments IN CONTEXT, not run with it to conclude a complete different situation or player.
I didn’t say ANY 1B would need to hit .400 and 60 HRs to be at the top of the leaderboard. I didn’t say Albert Pujols would need to.
I DID say Miggy would need to …
[1] Albert Pujols walks 100 times a year, Cabrera doesn’t.
[2] Pujols can get 1-2 WAR from defense, Miggy doesn’t.
I could go on, but I think you see what I am getting at.
As I said, Miggy Cabrera would need to hit .400 with 60 HRs to lead the league in WAR.
I, as a huge Cardinals and Pujols fan, have a hard time believing that Albert is “20-30 Fielding Runs” better in the field than Howard or Cabrera. He really prevents a run every 5-6 games, that the other 1B’s would not? Where are all these outstanding (far ranging, including foul pops) plays he makes? (or is primarily the 6 fewer errors).
I perosnally feel, that 1B defense is over-emphasized in things like WAR.
So the Jays had Michael Taylor, trading him for Wallace, and then traded Wallace for Goose. The Jays should have traded for Goose originally…
The Jays couldn’t get Goose originally. Took them 2/3 of a year to get what they wanted, which they did.
Interesting, then, that both the Phillies and the Blue Jays valued Gose above Michael Taylor. Maybe we shouldn’t be so surprised to see him struggling this year.
I’m tempted to wonder how much of this was a “spite trade,” if such things exist on the MLB level. Wade is rebuffed in his attempts to extort big-time prospect Shelby Miller out of the St. Louis farm system in the deal that was brewing between the Cards and Astros. (Good on Cards GM John Mozeliak, say I.) So he turns around and not only serves Oswalt up on a platter to a team the Cardinals may play in the post season, but then acquires Wallace so he can say, “See, Mo, I’ve got the guy now that you drafted #1 two years ago and you don’t, nyah nyah nyah.”
I jest, of course, but does anyone have a BETTER explanation for this pair of moves by Houston?
horrible trade. I know astros were running out of options but they might as well have kept him and tried again in the off season.
Jesus Christ. When another team gets surplus value in a trade, they’re honored for it; after all, a win is a win, regardless of whether it comes from a star or just a solid player.
When Houston gets surplus value in a trade, they get bashed because the prospects they acquired only profile as average-to-good players instead of stars.
The level of bias on this site is nauseating. I also find it hilarious how Mr. Smith assumes he can judge prospects solely by their statistics when we hear frequently on this very site that you simply cannot do that. The stats matter, but so do a variety of other factors.
But I guess the constant groupthink has simply made Houston and Ed Wade an easy target, so why not?
Why take it so personally? If you have a point, make it and supply support. Isn’t that what a public forum is about?
I don’t think this is solely about statistics. Part of the reason the trade’s getting dinged is Wallace’s body and how there’s little room for power projection.
I didn’t think it was a bad trade when it included Gose, who I believe is being misrepresented as a Michael Bourn type on a lot of sites. He’s a lot bigger and I believe the Jays will have the brains to NOT develop him as a slap hitter.
Though without Gose I’m not pleased with the return, I do think, in Ed Wade’s defense, that it’s tougher to pry stars than it used to be. The Twins got blasted for the Johan Santana trade, the Diamondbacks got criticized for the Dan Haren deal, the Mariners and Phils didn’t seem to get overwhelming packages for Cliff Lee and now the Stros get knocked for this trade.
There just isn’t much star-level talent in the minors, and what’s there doesn’t seem easy to obtain.
The point Bryan’s attempting to make is that there was an opportunity cost here and that, though the Astros will likely end up better off in this deal, they missed out on an opportunity to get more by not receiving any star power. So while they get surplus value, they missed out on the opportunity to get even more. That may or may not be true though I think it likely is.
It’s important to note, additionally, that getting X dollars in surplus value from 1 player is better than getting X dollars in surplus value from 3. So it does matter whether that value comes from 3 solid players or 1 star.
How would he know what opportunities Houston did or did not seize? Was he a fly on the wall in Ed Wade’s office? It’s very, very difficult to pry away star players. I wouldn’t be surprised if Wallace was the best prospect he could possibly have obtained. And, by the way, Wallace was consistently ranked in the top 50 prospects in baseball prior to the beginning of the season.
That implies that a star prospect could be had for Oswalt, which I think is in doubt. If you proceed from that possibly false assumption, then you can make any trade look bad I suppose. I think people imagine that every #1/2 starter traded should yield a bounty of future All-Stars, as if the Colon to MON trade was the norm, rather than the exception. This trade, like most, falls somewhere between the CLE reload and the Johan Santana bucket of spit return.
Get a grip. If the rumors are at all accurate, the Cardinals certainly offered Houston a better package than what they wound up with, and that’s without St. Louis doing anything as dumb as including Shelby Miller in that offer. The same is likely true of at least one or two other Oswalt suitors. Wade could have done better — possibly much better.
If the rumors are true, the Cards offered 2 of Brendan Ryan, Kyle McClellan, and Jon Jay. Better? I don’t think so and I’m a Cards fan.
This is a terrible analysis. Try to be more partisan with your future writing and do more research.
Speaking of weak analysis, perhaps you’d like to enlighten us on why it’s terrible. And say what you want about it, Bryan is nothing if not well researched.
What is the median age on this site? Reading some of these comments, it certainly appears to be no higher than 14 or 15. I wonder if some of the posters ever take a step back and appreciate the level of juvenile bickering that occurs at times…
I’m done with these forums..enjoying flaming me to yourself.
Not sure why you’re so down on Wallace’s defense, other than his body. The range is lacking some, but not hugely, and he’s nimble, especially around the bag, and he has outstanding hands. Saw him at Fresno recently and he looked really nice in the field. I would be surprised if he’s not league average on D at 1B.
He does need to walk more, no doubt. Last year I figured the walk rate was so low because he was rushed. Now it’s troubling.
Look, the Astros dumped a lot of payroll. I don’t think any team but the Phillies would have taken on $12 million for Oswalt through 11, *and* given up anything significant in return. It’s a win for the Stros just to get Oswalt off the books (he has no value to them right now). To get two guys who figure to be around league average on top of that is a big win imo.
I’m also curious about his walk rate. It was always a strength in college. The radical shift makes me wonder if something went amiss with the way he was instructed by the Cardinals’ player development staff.
Despite the common belief that the Astros’ front office does not value patient hitters, the pattern in Wade’s front office has actually been to the contrary. Jason Castro, Jiovanni Mier, and Michael Kvasnicka all have a good approach at the plate. I’ll be watching carefully to see if they can get Wallace back to drawing walks. If he could even get back up to an average walk rate, that would help his value a lot.
I’ve often said recently that I think we really need to be careful about assuming that a good walk rate in college equals a patient hitter. There is a significant distinction between a player that is pitched around, and a player that is utilizing a skill when drawing walks. We’re talking now about 1250 plate appearances, a number trending down, and only one stop during his minor league career with a solid BB%. It doesn’t bode well.
Orem, I’m sorry you think I’m biased or unresearched or what have you. It’s truly not the case. I sincerely don’t see a feasible development plan that turns Wallace into anything but an easily replaceable asset.
It’s not you specifically Bryan, it’s the entire site, so please don’t feel like I’m singling you out. It seems like almost every move which Houston makes which is good or works out well for them is ignored or some way is found to ridicule it, while the bad moves (every team makes some of them) are held up as shining examples of why they are the Worst Franchise In Baseball.
I do think it’s easy at times to develop that ‘piling on’ mentality, and I’ve probably been guilty of that. There wasn’t room in the piece to mention that I think they’ve done a good job scouting pitchers, and if you read by Futures Game report, you know I love Jordan Lyles. There are good things here and there, but I think an overview of the organization has to lead to the conclusion that they aren’t set up for winning in the near future.
@Orem
The Cardinals also had another 3B prospect that moved from 3B, who know is worth 20 runs as a fielder.
Of course Cabrera made the same switch.
I wish I were more confident on the defensive metrics for 1B. I’m not certain that using “range” is the way to do it. I don’t know if “scooping balls out of the dirt” is even included and that’s one of the most important aspects of 1B defense.
Mark Teixeira was praised for his defensive prowess during the WS. I wonder how many recognized that 90% of his great play was positioning? 1/2 step and dive was all that was needed.
He’ll, I’d bet the biggest factor in “number of balls fielded by a 1B is “numer of opponent LHBs”, followed by range of 2B”. Didn’t Bill James do a study that showed how fielding metrics could be used to show how Bill Buckner was a better fielding 1B than Steve Garvey(due to chances, etc)?
That study is in (re[peated?) the New Historical Abstract. I think it was the reverse though. Because range totals were inflated by Buckner’s assists, and Garvey always wanted to take the ball to first himself so it looked like wasa worse fielder than Buckner.
Is their any reason why a team needs to acquire stars in lieu of perfectly suitable average players? Happ and Wallace both look like a pretty good bet to stick as regulars in the majors over the next few years. I think Drayton would be plenty happy if he got two players with solid performance under team control, which would allow him to both spend more in free agency and draft bigger.
I’m confused. Will someone please tell me the last time a prospect widely perceived to have 5 WAR as a likely outcome was traded at all, much less for a 2 month rental? (I’m not talking about a guy who ended up that good, I’m talking about a guy that people said was going to be that good at the time he was traded.) Is the thesis of this article that Jason Heyward or Stephen Strasburg was what the Astros should have gotten?
Acquiring a star takes luck. Nobody trades away a future star. People trade away projectible, future everyday guys (2-3 WAR guys) and sometimes those turn out to be stars. Jason Werth was drafted in 1997 (1st round) but didn’t play 100 MLB games until 2005. Cliff Lee was a 4th round draft pick who pitched 41 AAA in 2007 because it was starting to look like he wasn’t going to be good enough for a 4th or 5th guy in the rotation.
Huston isn’t one of the smart teams, but this trade actually looks pretty good to me.
Well, don’t get caught up in the specific number. I’m saying that Houston hasn’t targeted upside with their offensive picks and trade acquisitions in recent years, and that it’s going to be a problem since they need to rebuild the team.
I don’t even think your examples are particularly poignant. Werth was once a catcher with power potential and speed. Fourth-round lefties out of high school are drafted for their upside. These are still example of upside guys. Brett Wallace isn’t.
Who are you to claim that Wallace doesn’t have upside?
The worst part of all this is that you refuse to re-think or re-state your stance.
Come on. If a team traded only based on upside, with the attendant flameout rate, they’d get hammered for not picking guys with high enough floors. And philosofool’s point is well taken, in that Werth was pretty much written off at the time the Dodgers let him go, his upside and promise thoroughly tarnished in the eyes of many. It was hardly considered a major acquisition for PHI at the time.
Wallace has plenty of flags, but assuming that HOU could have gotten a star prospect without assuming the remainder of Oswalt’s salary is dubious to say the least. You can criticize them for not doing what it took to get a blue chipper, but to get this return while dumping salary seems about right, and Wallace is completely irrelevant if your real problem is with the Astros’ handling of the money side.
Mark,
(1) You’re talking about whether Howard should be an MVP candidtae, and I am saying he has been and will be again. 2 different issues.
(2) I didn’t say Pujols wasn’t outhitting Howard. I was saying that the race will be close this year.
(3) Walks to elite hitters are SO valuable to the offense that Joe Maddon IBB’d Miggy to load the bases THREE games in a row. Teams used to do that to Pujols all the time post-Edmonds and ore-Holliday. It helps the defense. Joe Maddon is regarded as a highly intelligen manager. FWIW, the strategy worked all 3 times.
Here’s what I don’t like about wOBA … and the point I’m making about elite hitters and walks.
[1] It’s NOT context sensitive.
[2] It’s based on average situations, and people will then apply that information to ALL situations, as if every situation were equal.
So, firstly, it assumes that all walks are of equal value. With 2 guys on and your elite hitter up with two outs, a walk is not going to have a value of .7 runs. How many of an elite hitters walks are “pitch around” situations when the offense really wants the hitter to “hit”? It’s not the same context as a 2-hitter walking 120 times. How many times a year does a walk to Pujols, Dunn, or Cabrera, put the “game on the line” (highest WPA situation) on the far lesser hitter that hits behind him? (Holliday hits behind Pujols now, but that wasn’t the case for much of 09 and 08).
How many times will fans repeat the “value of a walk” without recognizing the situation. We, as fans, often talk of “averages” as being “absolutes”. They aren’t. A leadoff walk is great, a 2 out walk (especially to a good hitter with men on) ain’t so great.
Walks are better than outs, no doubt about. But the value of a walk depends on the quality of hitters upcoming, and the game-state situation.
We know the game states of all plays (play by play data), so why the hell would we use “average values” for wOBA calcs? … or why haven’t we incorporated WPA into WAR and not treat every action as having the same value? I know eveverything is context neutral, but I disagree with the approach.
I’m not a Astro’s fan, nor a big fan of Wallace, but this seems like a reasonable return. How does this return compare with Haren? It seems like the Astros got more than AZ did. That’s what you really needed a column for.
But Houston is getting a controlled #3, with a pretty good chance of being a #2, a highly rated prospect with a weakish K/W, a kid with some promise.
The idea that they needed start power seems, imho, a bit far afield. At a minimum, a team is only as good as its 25-man roster. As a RS fan, even with a huge payroll, you can still only afford so many FAs. You really need a lot of supporting players.
I like the Haren return better.
The Astros have shown that they honestly don’t understand how to trade for prospects. If you are paying huge chunks of both Oswalts’ and Berkman’s contracts, they needed to get awesome prospects. Usually teams willing to get rid of two of their highest paid players(one being their staff ace, the other being their best hitter excluding this season both for about 10 years now.)
Villar could be a star one day, while Brett Wallace actually has upped his power numbers while still hitting over .300. He’s not 24 yet, will get tons of at-bats, and looks to be a .300 hitter who could end up being a guy who hits 35 bombs. Remember how poorly Bagwell’s power potential was evaluated by Boston. He was also a horrible 3rd basemen in the minors, converted to a first baseman, and eventually won a gold glove. He also only had 6 homeruns in 200 games in the minors… Wallace has 28 homeruns in less games…
Happ will never be an ace, but will be a quality pitcher. I don’t like the trades, but something tells me that Bad Bill might be on to something. Wade might have wanted to sabotage the Cards since they wouldn’t part with Shelby Miller.
Wallace generates tons of bat speed, is a natural hitter, and supposedly was learning how to play third base. He has soft hands, great footwork, an above average arm(from third), and has dropped about 30 pounds since his first minor league season. I guess I don’t know what people mean by upside anymore though…
Wallace for Gose 1 year later….HAHAHAHAHA!!!! I have to admit, the Cardinals and Atlanta GM’s are dumber, that being them giving away Escobar and Rasmus….