The Scott Podsednik Trade: Kansas City’s Perspective
In a move that will shake up the NL West, nay, the entire National League as we know it, the Kansas City Royals have reportedly traded outfielder Scott Podsednik to the Los Angeles Dodgers for minor leaguers Lucas May and Elisaul Pimentel. The Dodgers will reportedly pick up the $650,000 dollars still owed to Podsednik, whose initial signing by the Royals during the off-season inspired some jackass on the internet to hypothesize a ‘Contest‘ between Dayton Moore and Omar Minaya to match foolish move for foolish move.
It must be admitted that Podsednik has played better than expected, accumulating 1.2 WAR in 94 games for the Royals, although the playing time (replacement) element is inflated due to the Royals hitting Podsednik first for most of the season (14.3 replacement runs versus 11.3 total runs above replacement means he was still a below-average player). Sure, his defense in left field was average at best according to UZR (-1.5), DRS (-12!), and to anyone who watched his …circuitous… routes (one of the most frustrating parts of Rick Ankiel being out for so long only to have Pods get traded right as Ankiel returned was that we missed the inevitable collision). Over the rest of the season, playing full-time, one would expect Podsednik to be worth roughly a half-win above replacement level, although how much playing time he gets will be contingent on when Manny Ramirez and Reed Johnson return from their respective injuries. Assuming full-time play, a half win is probably worth about $2 million dollars. Minus the $650,000 owed to Podsednik, the surplus is roughly the market value of a C prospect.
I’ll defer to others regarding the prospects that the Dodgers are sending to Kansas City. I’ve read both May and Pimental described as “fringe,” although John Sickels called May (a catcher with a decent bat but defensive issues) a “C” prospect during the past off-season, which would make this potentially a minor win for the Royals, although given the Dodgers’ situation (a contender with injuries to multiple outfielders) either way it seems to be a fair trade for both sides.
While Podsednik has played better than should have been expected for the Royals and thus justified his low cost in a vacuum, it was still not a smart signing for the Royals, given that even with Podsednik’s not-horrible play he’s still a below-average outfielder in his mid-thirties who wouldn’t exactly have taken the Royals to a new level. Moreover, one also has to take into account the opportunity cost the Royals gave up “showcasing” Podsednik while Mitch Maier sat on the bench and newly-minted outfielder Alex Gordon rotted in AAA. But that’s all water under the bridge. Although it is unlikely that Mays or Pimental will amount to much, it is still a decent return to get due to a fortuitous confluence of a (typical) BABIP-fueled July by Podsednik and the Dodgers’ outfield problems (Juan Pierre apparently isn’t available, no doubt much to Ned Colletti’s chagrin). It doesn’t make up for, well, you know… but it would be churlish to deny that this was nice work by Dayton Moore.
I’m intrigued, Dayton. For your next tricks, I suggest a) convincing another team that Rick Ankiel is worth something (even if only taking on his salary); and b) resisting going after the Big Prize.
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More OF holes opening up in KC for Gordon to play in. Now, only if they can trade away Guillen, they can call up .. Kila for DH.
That was some great writing, keep it up! If I were Dayton Moore, I would try to get rid of Rick Ankiel, Jose Guillen, and other replacement-level players for more fringe prospects. Anything is better than nothing. Also, Gordon would be returned to third base, Kila would play first, and Joakin Soria would be sold for better prospects. Alas, Dayton Moore is probably not so rational.
Keep third open for Moustakas… He should be up next year and Hosmer will need to find a home pretty soon as well.
Great writing? How long is this sentence, and how many hyphenated words does it contain?
“While Podsednik has played better than should have been expected for the Royals and thus justified his low cost in a vacuum, it was still not a smart signing for the Royals, given that even with Podsednik’s not-horrible play he’s still a below-average outfielder in his mid-thirties who wouldn’t exactly have taken the Royals to a new level.”
Podsednik has played better than expected. His play justified his low cost in a vaccum. It was still not a smart signing for the Royals. Podsednik remains below average. He is also in his thirties. He wouldn’t have taken the Royals to a new level.
That better for you, Phil? A little easier to follow with short sentences? (I, for one, prefer the original)
At first, I got excited about “the Contest” because I thought the jackass was inspired by Seinfeld, but he wasn’t. Anyway, a fair assessment here, for what it’s worth.
Lord, please have the Royals take Frenchy for anything.
Matt, you are mean. It’s not unfounded, but it’s still mean.
Big Prize… I love it.
I thought this was a pretty good move, the Royals may be getting a little smarter as an organization. I didn’t have a problem with them signing Pods, as it was a cheap deal and he wasn’t blocking anyone at the time, Gordon was their 3B. Maier could be promising, but he isn’t really a true prospect and the Ankiel signing further blocked him.
He played a very good half season for them and they parlayed it into two prospects who I think are top 30 guys and could have a chance. Now if they could only get rid of Guillen and Ankiel.
Pods was not a bad signing. Maier and Gordon weren’t really rotting–Gordon was learning to play LF (he still needs a LOT) and Maier (28, career OPS=.661) isn’t much of a prospect anymore–he is a 4th OF with no special ability as a pinch running basestealer, and he wasn’t going to be pushing the Royals to the next level as a starter. His WAR is 0.4 this year.
In a year when the Royals/small market team weren’t going to be competitive, they turned a FA into 2 prospects–even if they are fringe. That is how a small market team does it.
Now Jason Kendall…that was a bad signing. His current OBP is .645. The bad news: his OBP in Milwaukee over the last two years was .644, so he is overperforming, or at least right on track. Somehow, he was in the plans for the future (next 2 seasons), but John Buck (OPS=.822) and Miguel Olivo (OPS=.866) were not. While I was frustrated with Olivo’s inability to stop anything in the dirt, predictably dropping over .100 points of OPS and lowering arm strength were not worth it. Brayan Pena is ACTUALLY rotting on the bench considering he posted a .761 OPS last year, and next year should be more of the same exact rotting. So, it is still something fun to cry about.
In sum, one-year deals in non-competitive seasons that result in prospects = never “bad,” even if not “good.”
I’m guessing you mean OPS in the second sentence. An OBP of .645 would be something special.
The Scott Podsednik trade, Kansas Citys perspective ..
..
I’ll defer to others regarding the prospects that the Dodgers are sending to Kansas City. ..
wha . what?
This is the girl in high school who looks like Juan Pierre, who Ned dated back in eighth grade. He sure misses the original one though.
This one is a much cheaper date though…
Scotty Pods got a lot of hate from the blogosphere for his time in Kansas City. Despite posting a solid season, he still gets very little love. He’s a solid roleplayer and did a very good job of getting on base for the Royals. His high BABIP is normal, and should be expected for someone with his speed and slap hitting.
Everyone seems to really hate the steals on him because he was only successful 75(ish) percent of the time. But without really calculating that, surely 5 of those steals would have been converted to runs that would otherwise not have happened at the cost of just 10 outs. Seems like a fair trade to me, plus you get the added bonus of making the pitcher throw from the stretch and worry about the runner.
No matter how you look at it, Scotty Pods made the Royals a better team this year. Maybe he took Alex Gordon’s or Mitch Maier’s development time; but that’s a huge maybe.
I think much of the hate was due to the signing of Brian Anderson, Rick Ankiel, Josh Fields, and Scotty Pods to an outfield that already had Mitch Maier, David Dejesus, and Jose Guillen. Seven outfielders seemed a bit much. In the end though, it looks like it took seven outfielders to avoid the outfield circus that was much of 2009.
Scotty Pods becomes get two guys who could be able to fill in some holes when the Royals could be competing in 2012 for an actual playoff spot.
Dayton Moore is beginning to look almost competent.
I wonder if he realizes he made a mistake with Buck and Olivo, though. He signed Kendell before the value of those guys was really set. I’m thinking he didn’t realize those two would go so cheap. I expected Buck to make at least 4 million and maybe 5.
My comment necessarily defends Dayton Moore, which I am loathe to do, but what exactly is the point of this article? The Royals’ perspective is that they received two prospects in return for Podsednik, who would have netted a supplemental first rounder next year otherwise. If the money was that big a deal, they would have unloaded DeJesus before he got hurt.
Pure snark advertised as FG analysis = fail.
Ummm…no.
Podsednik does not equal a supplemental first round pick. First the Royals would have to offer arbitration (which would be a mistake) and then Podsednik would have to decline arbitration (another mistake) and then another team would have to sign him. Prior to that compensation would be determined by his free agent status and I don’t think I’d be going out on the limb to say he doesn’t quite have “Type A Free Agent” written all over him. I suppose it is possible he could squeak in as a Type B and avoid being unclassified.
Maybe I’m wrong for wanting an analysis that looks at this trade in more of a vacuum, Matt, but it seems to me that the value of the actual signing of Podsednik should not be part of the equation here. The fact remains that he was in KC, advisedly or not, he’s 34, and he has the limitations that you have outlined. Dayton Moore dumped him off for two prospects. This was a good move, and exactly what the Royals need to be doing.
Here’s my problem with most of your analysis-
“whose initial signing by the Royals during the off-season inspired some jackass on the internet to hypothesize a ‘Contest‘ between Dayton Moore and Omar Minaya to match foolish move for foolish move.”
followed by this
“It must be admitted that Podsednik has played better than expected, accumulating 1.2 WAR in 94 games for the Royals”
When you post the purpose is not for objective analysis, it’s based always on a bias to “entertain” the minions first- snark- does not equal an intelligent analysis. There are your favorites (players-managers-GMs) who can do no wrong and your targets who can never do anything right and if they do half the comment is reminding people how they sucked before or finding a way to rationalize your negative outcomes as you do in this very post. If you start from a dishonest place your analysis can’t be trusted.
Bottom line your whole preposterous over-reaching “Contest” post was WRONG.
I called it as such in the comment section- it was an incredible overreach for a 1.5 million dollar signing -which played out exactly as most people expected.
Your first line suggests your priorities in this post. In reality this is a small move for both team but Pods will clearly fill a role for the Dodgers equivalent to a potential back up catcher and single A flier, but you have to fill the space right so blather blather blather. Both teams accomplished their goal and it’s reasonable to assume Pods will help the Dodgers especially when they have injury problems and when healthy can spot him to their advantage. Serious analysis is objective- review the forefathers of Sabermetrics before you aspire to future personal glory. You have appointed yourself as an expert on Kansas City baseball, your work doesn’t reflect that as warranted. If you want to just entertain and get web back slaps keep going, if you want to truly do analysis, don’t have your conclusions drawn before you begin.