The Strangely Thin Beltran Market
There has been plenty to discuss this offseason, with the Angels, Marlins and Phillies making big splashes and rumors sprouting up left and right every single day. However, Carlos Beltran‘s name has barely been mentioned to the point that one could wonder if teams forgot he was available.
According to our nifty custom free agent leaderboard, Beltran was the fourth most productive non-pitcher on the market. At 4.7 WAR, only Jose Reyes, Prince Fielder and Albert Pujols performed better last season. Based strictly on offensive value, Beltran’s .389 wOBA and 151 wRC+ ranked third to just Fielder (.408) and David Ortiz (.405). He lost some points for below average fielding but ran the bases at an above average clip. Overall, last season marked a return to form that should have set Beltran up nicely for the offseason, especially considering he was the cream of the available outfield crop.
He can’t regularly play centerfield anymore, but this isn’t the 2009 offseason, when a glut of corner outfielders hit the market at the same time. Aside from Beltran, prominent outfield options include(d) Josh Willingham, David DeJesus, Michael Cuddyer, Jason Kubel and Coco Crisp. DeJesus signed a modest two-year, $10 million deal but the others remain free agents. Even Grady Sizemore was signed to a one-year deal potentially worth $9 million if he meets incentives. Willingham and Cuddyer will probably end up signing deals with average annual values in the $7-$10 million range. Beltran’s desired salary is largely unknown but it’s hard to fathom him requesting much more than Willingham and Cuddyer, despite superior production.
Beltran will end up signing for something like one year and $12 million, or two years and $20 million, both of which could include playing time incentives. This is well below what 4-5 WAR often costs on the market, but a low enough salary that teams aren’t scared off by his injury history. The lack of interest in Beltran is strange, but likely means some team will get a very productive player at a relative bargain.
Beltran projects more favorably than his free agent outfield contemporaries, but he has enough going against his case to prevent him from obtaining his true value. Teams will shy away from the intersection of his age and prior ailments and wonder if 2011 was a fluke. He only played 145 games in 2009-10, but his productivity is often lost in that discussion. Injuries obviously affected his value, but he hit .295/.384/.470 in 612 PAs.
Consider his 2009-10 as one full season, and it was very Beltran-esque at this stage: 3.8 WAR, that impressive slash line, and a .370 wOBA. If the injuries are in his rear-view mirror, and playing 142 games last season goes a long way towards suggesting his health is improved, several teams could benefit greatly from his presence in the lineup. He isn’t the 6-7 WAR player of old, capable of roaming centerfield effortlessly, but there is some value to be gained in signing a great hitter in a corner outfield spot for much less than his projected WAR is worth on the market.
Who are these teams, you ask?
- The Cardinals were mentioned as a possible destination yesterday, with $22 million freed up after losing Pujols, and an obvious need with Allen Craig‘s knee surgery. Craig could miss 1-2 months in 2012, and even when he returns, could benefit from occasional time off. Beltran would start the season in right field, but could spell Jon Jay in center every now and then as well. A foursome of Holliday, Beltran, Craig and Jay would help make up for some of the lost Pujolsian production.
- The Nationals may really shift Jayson Werth to center if they cannot acquire a legitimate centerfielder. Manager Davey Johnson intends to give Bryce Harper a shot at earning the right field role in spring training, but he’ll presumably start the season in the minors. Roger Bernadina is a nice player with potential, but the Nationals are a sleeper wild card contender, and adding Beltran could change the complexion of that lineup.
- Several teams have been linked to Martin Prado this offseason, and if the Braves end up trading him, they have an opening in left field that Beltran would be perfect for. The Braves have also been connected to Willingham. They are in a tough spot, because Chipper Jones can’t be relied upon to stay healthy, and Prado would take over at third when Jones goes down. However, it’s going to be tough to sell Beltran on a role that could end up being part-time if everything breaks right, health-wise.
- The Red Sox have Jacoby Ellsbury and Carl Crawford, but may find an affordable Beltran more desirable than Josh Reddick for a full season.
- The Tigers have Austin Jackson, and used both Brennan Boesch and Delmon Young, but Beltran represents an upgrade over both.
- The Mariners have Ichiro Suzuki, but no other outfielder played more than 92 games last season.
- Then we have the Cubs, who have Marlon Byrd and DeJesus, but who are actively shopping Alfonso Soriano. If Soriano’s salary is mostly eaten, and he is eventually moved, Beltran makes a lot of sense for Theo Epstein’s new club, especially if both Pujols and Fielder end up leaving the division.
One of these teams — or another team where less of a reasonable fit exists — is going to sign Beltran, and for a reasonable number of years and dollars. The lack of interest is strange right now, but not every deal gets made over the Winter Meetings. It’s just curious since Beltran might end up being the best value-sign of the offseason.
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I don’t see why the Braves are so intent on trading Prado. They could sign a Beltran and use Prado as a super-utility, say 5 times a week at different positions giving starters rest.
While I like this idea, I think it would take a very confident and innovative manager to handle that situation. I’m not sure that Fredi Gonzalez is that manager.
Of course the guy who hit Alex Gonzalez second on more than one occasion is that manager!
My thoughts as well. Move Jurrjens for some more salary relief, then give Beltran the 2/$20 or so, and Prado can play 20-40 games for Beltran so his knees get regular rest. Another 20-40+ for Chipper when he inevitably gets hurt. Heyward seems a bit injury prone, so that could be another 20-40. Add a handful of games at 2B and 1B when Uggla and Freeman could use a day off, and you’ve got another 120+ starts for Prado while keeping a strong starter whenever those guys are sitting.
Best. Idea. Ever.
I’m willing to bet Jurrjens will get moved, if only because the Braves have the depth in starting pitcher to not need to pay him, and it frees up the money, as you said. As a Braves fan, I think it would be a fantastic idea, but it would severely limit their ability to pick up a SS. I’m betting that finding a 1-2 year deal on a semi-productive SS to fill the hole until Pastornicky is ready is higher on Wren’s agenda right now. I know I wouldn’t want to commit $10/ year on an aging OF, no matter how good he is, until I’ve got something workable at short. As the author notes, there are a decent number of options for corner OF to platoon with Prado or replace Prado if he’s traded, but the SS market isn’t so robust. I would be surprised if they go for a deal with Beltran before they sign someone at short.
Given the overall quiet, and their lack of action on the pitching front, you gotta think the red sox are the likely landing spot here. 3 years and 30, giving them by far the highest upside outfield in the bigs? Totally worth it and they’ve got money to spare still.
I’m also surprised that I’ve heard almost nothing about Edwin Jackson. Does anyone know what the market on him is?
He’s a Scott Boras client. Edwin’s market is real and deep, but Boras is going to wait until he’s the last legit free agent pitcher on the market, and then gouge the team that wants him. This is of course barring some sort of ridiculous offer like what Jayson Werth got last year.
I remember that backfired with Lohse in 08
Sure, but it usually works!
What about the A’s? Last I checked, their outfield depth chart still has Ryan Sweeney at all three positions.
I thought about the A’s but I don’t see them being anything other than a fallback plan, if they are even interested.
unfortunately the As went all in (well as all in as they can) last season and it did not work. I suspect they will wait a bit this year to see where some guys price.
Brewers should sign Beltran and move Hart to first. And they should NOT on Fielder. Assume that big train has left the station.
should not ‘wait’
sorry
Oh, ‘Wait’ was the word. Had no idea, whatsoever, what you were saying.
I don’t think the Braves have the money to sign Beltran or Willingham unless they trade both Prado and Jurrjens. I suppose they could then try to get Nick Punto to be the super utility player to sub in for Chipper on a weekly basis.
Braves have the money if they’re willing to start Pastornicky at SS rather than spend for a free agent.
Pastornicky turns 22 tomorrow. Only 104 AAA ab. That’s probably not a good move for Atlanta. He probably COULD be a major league SS, but you want to maximize his value. One more year of development, given the statistical production curve, means one more year under team control at a higher level of production.
If anything, sign a SS, if Pastornicky kills AAA, trade the SS for minor league depth and call Pastornicky up after the ASB.
I wonder if in some wierd way the Yankees might not be an option for Beltran. Swisher was not all that good last year, and having 10 bats for 9 positions fits their modus operandi. Swisher could be the fourth outfielder, but between the three outfield spots and DH when Montero needs a day off, all four could get their PAs. The Yankees seem to need to make SOME splash each off-season, and this would be one way.
They will. Yu Darvish
Possible, certainly, but their track record (even in their own minds) with Japanese pitchers has not been stellar (Irabu, Igawa) and there is certainly a perception that the posting process inflates cost without inflating value. Just saying.
I do not see why those Japanese ballplayers that are highly likely to get MLB jobs just don’t leave the country and fly over here, then shop their talents. Much like the Cubans. This gets around the posting fee. The player would keep most of the difference between salary and the posting fee. Sure he might have a problem trying to get a job back in Japanese baseball if it didn’t work out here, but if he is good enough he could just work here till he is done.
That wouldn’t work. Cubans are automatically offered political asylum whenever they can make it over here. A Japanese player would require an immigration visa or get deported for illegal immigration once he goes public, and I don’t see us spurning the Japanese by accepting visa requests for baseball players trying to get around the posting system.
I guess part of the issue is how much you are willing to pay to replace what you already have. As a RS fan, I thought he’d be a nice fit, if we didn’t re-sign Papi. Play RF against lefties, and DH against righties, with Reddick and Lavarnway getting most of the other ABs at both positions.
With Papi in the fold, Beltran still fits, but mostly as a RF. I’d need to consider the production of Reddick v Beltran, and decide if that added production was worth $10M that could be spent on pitching. We lead the league in scoring while getting nothing out of RF. We really need a Floyd or Jackson more than a Beltran.
There might be a number of teams out there like this. I agree that he is looks like a good value, but there could be some fit issues.
The Cards are the bovious perfect landing spot for Beltran, and I hope they move quickly to give him that 2/22 type deal.
Allows Jay to sit against lefties in CF, allows Craig to play some days at 1B, and allows Beltran to be limited to 140 or so games and keep all four of the OF’ers as fresh as possible, and gives depth in case of injury.
Also buys another year for Matt Adams to develop and the Cards to determine if he’s for real.
Adams has a ton of power potential. Sickels has him at a B. Even if he doesn’t get the high average/on base, which he’s actually shown he has, that’s still good. Next year will be the true test though. At 23 and assuming a AAA job, or starting in AA with a chance to get moved up quickly, it’s the prime time to see if he’s for real.
Not a bad plan. If I were the Cards, I might even gamble on Oswalt with a 1 year deal w/ a vesting option of 165 innings or something.
PS- Because if they signed him to a two year deal, they could let Berkman walk after the year, move Craig or Beltran to 1B, and let Adams have another year.
They could also re-sign Berkman to another short term deal if they so chose.
Is it really “strangely thin”? He will be 35 shortly into the 2012 season, he was not good with the Giants, and he has had some injury problems the last few years. I will admit that I am surprised there has not been any news on him, but it makes sense.
that .323/.369/.551 line with the giants is just terrible, right?
sure he’s in his mid 30′s and missed a lot of time 2 and 3 years ago, but he’s coming off a 4.7 WAR year and has put up 8.5 WAR in the past 3 years despite injuries.
even if he only plays 100 games next year, he’s very likely to be worth more than $10 million.
I think there are several ‘clues’ to Beltran’s problems catching on:
He arrived in the Giants clubhouse with his Mets equipment bag, and refused to give it up until one of the Giants rookies stole it and hid it from him.
He dogged it in RF, and padded his stats with OS by laying off.
His knee has a prosthetic that advertizes his injury problems (and plows large holes in RF).
His arm, isn’t what it used to be.
He dogged on the bases, and instead stood at home plate watching the beautiful arc of a flyball or two, thus successfully turning doubles into singles.
A high stat mud shot as it turned out.
I was going to say things along the lines that channelclemente did, but he beat me to it and did a better job than I would have.
Beltran apparently thought he had gained a free ticket to the playoffs by joining the Giants. When that didn’t happen, he apparently lost interest, doing what cc said plus not cheering teammates and other similar things.
Then he announced that he would not return to the Giants unless they improved the team at other positions.
It just may be that teams are not thrilled about the idea of signing a player with those attitude problems.
wait, i can’t tell if this is a joke or you’re serious. he put up 1.2 WAR in 45 games. that’s above average production and near all-star level. what more did you expect from him?
and what’s wrong with saying he wouldn’t re-sign unless they improved elsewhere? lots of free agents say they don’t want to sign with teams that aren’t contenders. does that make teams stay away from them due to “attitude problems”?
likey to be worth 10M based on an average that has teams with a wide range of payroll amount. Unless every team in the league needs/wants him, you can’t assume that.
He had a .920 OPS with the Giants. He had injuries, but he did play well.
My mistake.
Beltran was traded last July for a pretty good prospect. Shouldnt non contending teams be looking to sign him with the goal of flipping him in July? I understand they won’t be able to get a Wheeler level prospect but if he hits like last year you might be able to get $5 million worth of prospects back.
If a non-contending team can sign him to a one year contract they certainly should, but when it’s all said and done, I don’t think Beltran will have to go that rout. Some contender will give him two years.
With the Giants he still appeared to be pretty fast, had a steady glove and he definately could still hit. This guy would be an asset if he remains somewhat healthy.
I had been leaning towards wanting the Cards to look at Cuddyer as he can play 1st and the OF giving us a 4some of Craig, Holliday, Berkman and Cuddyer. I’d sway towards Beltran if the thought was he could play CF for 20 games a year. Everything I’ve seen suggests that is not realistic. What makes you feel he can
A few people are mentioning teams that would play him in about 120-140 games to keep him fresh. The problem is that Beltran doesn’t want to be limited to that few games, and I don’t think he’d accept a deal with a team that will give him that much rest (unless he doesn’t get any full-time offers).
The Mets’ goal last year was to give him time off every week. He wanted no part of that, and played virtually every day. Aside from his DL stint with the Giants last August, he played in almost every game last season. He’s a year older now, but he’s also another year removed from surgery.
Look at his career numbers and it’s not unreasonable for him to be a Hall of Famer with a few more good seasons. I’m thinking he’ll want to play as much as possible for the next couple years so that he can make a better case for his inclusion.
It could be that he wanted no part of being rested in a contract year.
Yes to above about Braves. With old man Jones and old man Beltran, you have 3-5 WAR players when healthy and Prado fits in nicely when they aren’t.
WAYYYYY off topic….but I’m struck by the fact that the ad at the top of the page is for Poise Tampons. Can’t imagine there is a large female readership on fangraphs.
Can’t imagine there’s zero female readership on fangraphs though.
true, but i think you want to advertise where you are certain to have a big market
Can’t imagine you’d want to advertise to 2% of the viewers. Then again, what do I know, I learned about this new protein shake watching Golden Girls, so good job on that advert…..wait no I didn’t.
It’s from your browsing history oOoOo
Please don’t tell anyone…
Beltran said he was open to returning to SF, though the Giants say they are maxed out (though I wonder if they were the mystery team involved with Pujols and wanted to remain quite so as not to stir up the fan base).
If they could move Huff and pick up half his 2012 salary plus all of the buyout it would save them $5M this year. If they brought in Beltran at 2/$20 and backloaded it, they could stay within the budget.
Sorry, Joe. Beltran said he was not interested in returning to the Giants unless they substantially improved the team elsewhere.
Clearly, they haven’t.
Also, the Giants claim they didn’t even submit a bid on him for budgetary reasons. Perhaps his attitude had something to do with it, too (see above).
I sure enjoyed your banter about the Tampon ads, though.
Gotta add value somehow…
Would Posey being healthy count as “substantially”? That’s basically the only reason they didn’t make the playoffs last year.
Jays are apparently looking for a middle of the order type bat and seeing as they said they like having Kelly Johnson back cause he can play LF as well, makes me think they’re not happy with Snider and Thames in LF. If that’s the case they should at least consider Beltran considering the money he’s gonna make, he’d be a nice switch hitting bat to hit after Bautista. A 3-4-5 of Bautista, Beltran and Lawrie sounds pretty good to me.
Curious that the article did not even mention the Giants as a possible destination.
Why not?
The Giants aren’t interested because their broke and have made all their offseason upgrades. They might made a trade, but will not spend anymore cash. : (
If Walt Jocketty and the Reds ever get around to obtaining a quality starting pitcher in a trade that involves Yonder Alonso, I’d love to see them chase Beltran to play LF (provided, of course, that the pitcher they do trade for fits the parameters they’ve listed, namely being young, effective, and team controlled for a few years.)
If they’re truly committed to trading Alonso in an attempt to win during the 2 years they’ll still have Votto, my ideal situation would involve trading Alonso/Grandal/etc. for someone like Hellickson, Latos, or Pineda, and then signing Beltran to fit in LF.
Pipe dreams, sure, but at least Beltran dumped Boras (who the Reds have not worked with). If he does, in fact, sign for 2 years, $20 million-ish, I’d be all over it.
If he would settle for 1 yr 7mil and a chance to be in a post season race. He could be a good target for the Rays. He can spend some time DHing while platooning with Joyce/Fuld on the turf at home. This allows Guyer to spend more time in AAA, or even possibly leading to a BJ trade if he can’t be extended.
Finally someone mentions the Rays. If Beltran stays unsigned long enough, the Rays might just find a bargain DH.
I would think an AL team would be the better fit, resting him as a DH. I’m just not sure how he feels about DH. I’d like to see the Mariners sign him for two years.
If the Mariners swooped in on Beltran for their left field hole and also signed Fielder, as some suggest they might, suddenly they thrust themselves into the picture; they’ve got pretty strong pitching and decent defense, and the addition of these two might make a huge difference.
after watching beltran in new york for all these years, i’m not sure he would want to be a dh, and i’m almost positive he wouldn’t want a part time role
The Rays could play him everyday, while resting him on the turf (at home) as a DH
If Beltran signs somewhere else for 2/$20mil I might quit on the Giants.
The first word in “Free Agent” is Free…
I think a lot of people have hit the nail on the head. Beltran just doesn’t want to play in SF. The Giants were probably told as much early on and thus didn’t make much of an effort. If the market continues to be weak and he sees SF as his best shot to play for a contender, then maybe something happens.