Comments on: The Tale of Three Overpaid Closers

By: Kevin S.

Kevin S. — Wed, 23 Sep 2009 21:22:58 +0000

I think he’s saying Fuentes hasn’t been replaced from the Closer-with-a-capital-C role by Jepsen because Jepsen hasn’t had any save opportunities yet, not that Fuentes is a better pitcher.

By: Pete

Pete — Wed, 23 Sep 2009 18:04:24 +0000

This is a joke, right?

By: Joe R

Joe R — Wed, 23 Sep 2009 17:43:08 +0000

And I love the accusations of “parroting” and “groupthink”. Not only does that show an unwillingness to argue with facts and hard logic, it shows a misunderstanding of the word “groupthink”.

There’s a huge difference between “groupthink” and “consensus”. If you threw 20 nomadic people in a room 50 stories above the ground and gave them two options to escape, a window and the door. These people have never been in a room before, but after looking through the facts, realize the door is a much better option. This is a consensus opinion. If one leader said “let’s go out the window” and they all decided to follow, this is groupthink. Groupthink is taking a stand without inspection. Statistical analysts are the opposite; they inspect almost to a fault, and come to a conclusion. Often times, their views can clash, as well.

In conclusion, try to exercise the left side of your brain for once while you’re not busy skipping psychology classes at community college*

*this is a blatant, stereotyping, likely highly wrong assessment of blackoutyears. I said it anyway.

By: Joe R

Joe R — Wed, 23 Sep 2009 17:31:54 +0000

blackoutyears is using an extreme end of the bell curve for his “point”.

It’s like when some old guy says “average is important, geeks, there’s a big difference between a .200 and .350 hitter”, you say “no shit you ignoramus, that’s a batting champ vs. a guy who probably shouldn’t be an MLB regular”.

Same here. 4 losses in one month, he pitched bad in this month, therefore, W-L record is significant. No shit.

Pitcher A plays for the Sucktown Sucks. He pitches 210 innings in 30 starts, giving up only 30 ER, strikes out 300, walks only 30. But because his team can’t field or hit well, he goes 4-16

Pitcher B plays for the Awesometown Awesomos. He pitches 150 innings in 30 starts, gives up 100 ER, K/BB of 1. Team hits behind him, he goes 12-8.

Who, among these two, is “better”? How much does W-L record “tell” us? Know how many loses Brian Wilson has? 5. David Aardsma? 5 as well. Let’s conclude they both suck.

By: Kevin S.

Kevin S. — Wed, 23 Sep 2009 02:27:03 +0000

I learned something today; apparently, there are only two types of people on teh internets, those who create models, and those who parrot. It isn’t possible to read something else, understand the principle, and decide it makes sense. Nope, parrotism. Still waiting for you to explain why you think wins and losses are worthwhile for relievers, and tell you something other stats don’t. All you’ve done is launch ad hominem attacks at people who think that other numbers tell the story to the point that record adds nothing to it. You made the claim, the onus is on you to prove it, or shut up and go away.

Oh, and as for calling you retarded? IF you think Rivera’s ‘01 was bad because of his six losses, a conditional I used before and continue to use now, you are retarded. Sorry, that’s non-negotiable.

By: blackoutyears

blackoutyears — Tue, 22 Sep 2009 22:32:34 +0000

Thanks, Kevin S. I was hoping someone would resort to calling me retarded; that’s how I know I’m on the internet. You know the second way I know I’m on the internet? People who’ve never formulated a profound analytical thought or created a statistical tool of their own present themselves as experts, as if I’m supposed to be impressed with what is simply an ability to parrot received opinions. I do see why you feel special. Which reminds me of the third way I know I’m on the internet: people are idiotic enough to think that they can actually persuade others. Fucking hilarious.

By: blackoutyears

blackoutyears — Tue, 22 Sep 2009 21:56:12 +0000

Nice try, Joe, but the misconception here seems to be that I think *a* 2-6 record is the problem, when in fact I’m talking only about Cordero’s. Four of his six losses have come in the last month, a period of time in which he’s pitched like dogshit for the most part. Because I actually *gasp* watch him pitch, I know this. I’ve seen his losses and his saves, and I know that the difference between the two is generally attributable to the Reds’ much improved defense. He was observably lucky in the first half and this stretch is a predictable regression. It is amusing that an off the cuff remark about a player’s record endgenders this sort of programmed response, to the degree that his mediocrity is defended and the efficacy of scouting is completely ravaged. Like I said, it borders on caricature or parody. I comment solely on players I’ve actually seen. Can anyone who’s responded here say the same?

And to the guy who said that Cordero has pitched well this year, I’d like to know by what measure. I don’t believe it exists statistically or anecdotally.

By: Kevin S.

Kevin S. — Tue, 22 Sep 2009 21:47:44 +0000

Blackoutyears, care to explain to me what, exactly, Rivera’s 4-6 record told you about him that year? You insist that it must say something, but you haven’t mentioned what it says. Because if tells you he was bad that year, you’re retarded. It rated among his best seasons in K-rate, BB-rate, FIP, appearances, innings pitched, and even saves (not that those mean much, but since you like W/L, I’ll throw you a bone). But yeah, he lost six games, so I’m sure he wasn’t good that year, right?

By: Joe R

Joe R — Tue, 22 Sep 2009 20:50:06 +0000

1) You’re looking at stats, too. You wouldn’t know a pitcher’s W-L record if you didn’t look at a stat sheet.
2) In 1983, Lee Smith went 4-10. 10 effin losses. Oh yeah, he also appeared in 66 games, threw 103 1/3 innings, had his best career ERA+, and converted 29 of his 33 save chances, and two of those blown saves were him being called in with runners already in scoring position. The next season, Lee Smith went 9-7, and his ERA doubled in the process, and gave up over 2 more baserunners per 9 innings. Looking at W-L record for a reliever is pretty much useless.

By: blackoutyears

blackoutyears — Tue, 22 Sep 2009 19:53:50 +0000

You can keep saying that wins and losses tell us nothing, but that’s simply because, lemming-like, you must. What can you tell me about Rivera’s wins and losses besides a number? Nothing, because you’ve been conditioned to disregard them. As always, it’s nice to see the comments here serving as their usual bastion of independent thought. You can challenge yourself or you can be a caricature. Your choice. Insisting that you can find out everything you need to know about a player with PITCHf/x and Baseball-Reference is amusing I’ll grant. I guess the saving grace is you’re too arrogant to realize how stoopid you look?