The Top 10 – Week of 4/2/2007
This week’s top 10 most popular players on FanGraphs is devoid of Corey Hart and because of that it makes a lot more sense. Let’s get right to it:
1. Alex Rodriguez – You’ve not only managed to become number one in Win Probability Added (and nearly every other stat in the first week), you’re also the most popular.
2. Albert Pujols – Slipping from the top spot lats week, Pujols got off to a rough start by going 1-13 to start the season. But yesterday, he went 2-5 with one home run, signaling the end of the bizarro first week of baseball.
3. Derek Jeter – What has Jeter done this season to deserve such a prominent place on the FanGraphs top 10? Besides being Jeter, WPA says he’s the second most valuable Yankee thus far this season. Fitting he should be the second most popular Yankee.
4. Barry Bonds – His one home run this week puts him just 20 home runs shy of tying Hank Aaron’s all time best 755 home runs. At this rate he’ll have broken the record by September 3rd. Anyone know the vegas odds on that?
5. Felix Hernandez – His 8 inning — 3 hit — 12 strikeout performance gave him a Game Score of 87, which just happens to be the highest Game Score this season. Hopefully the weather will allow him make a second start sometime this season.
6. Todd Helton – He’s off to a decent start, but I’m not sure why he’s in the top 10. It could have something to do with the nosedive his Isolated Power has taken since the 2004 season.
7. Johan Santana – Why wouldn’t the best pitcher in baseball make the list?
8. Adam Dunn – The always intriguing Dunn is off to a hot start after having a scorching spring training. He’s batting an uncharacteristic .381 with 3 home runs so far this season.
9. Brad Lidge – Speaking of spring training, Lidge has been just as awful the first week of the season as he was during spring training. He’s pitched 1.2 innings, giving up 6 runs (3 of them earned) for an ERA just over 16. If he can’t get things together soon, he’ll definitely be out of the closers job, and possibly a job altogether.
10. Ryan Howard – Even though he’s batting just .217 with no home runs, he’s already drawn 7 walks, which ties him for the most in the National League with fellow teammate Jimmy Rollins. He only hit 1 home run in his first 11 games last year, so not much to worry about yet.
11-20: David Ortiz, Cole Hamels, John Maine, B.J. Upton, Jose Reyes, Ian Snell, Grady Sizemore, Roy Oswalt, Erik Bedard, Elijah Dukes.
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David, I really like this Top 10 feature. It’s a fun little “buzzmeter” and everyone needs more fun in their lives! Keep it up.
Here’s something I’ve always wondered:
How is fielding & base-running handled in WPA?
For example, 4/8/07 Red Sox @ Rangers. 3-2 Red Sox, Top of the 9th. J.D. Drew on first, Mike Lowell singles on a groundball to third. Drew inexplicably heads for third and is thrown out on the play. So, instead of 3-2 Red Sox, Top of 9th, runners on 1&2, the inning is over. How is Drew’s base-running blunder accounted for?
Or, 4/10/07 Mariners @ Red Sox, 7-1 Red Sox, Bottom of the 3rd. Men on 2nd & 3rd, one out. Lugo singles to LF. Run scores, runners advance to 1st & 2nd. LF Raul Ibanez is charged an error on the throw from LF, advancing the runners to 2nd & 3rd. How is Ibanez’s fielding error accounted for?
Thanks much.
Fielding is not handled at all the current way Win Probability Added is compiled.
Base-running could be handled differently depending on the play. The Drew example was handled as a separate event and credited both Drew with his blunder and Otsuka got positive credit for ending the inning. You can see the details here:
I’m not really sure how the Ibanez throwing error will be broken out. When there is a separate base-running play like a stolen base or runners advancing, the lead runner will get credit for the play.
Pitchers are the only player ever credited on the fielding team.
Thanks, David. I checked out at that link, but I’m never really sure what it’s all telling me. I realize that’s my issue.
Why are pitchers the only player ever credited on the fielding team? Why is fielding not handled at all in the current way WPA is compiled?
The problem with doing automated Win Probability with fielding is that in the current play-by-play files used to compute Win Probability, there’s only “standard” fielding data like errors, assists, etc….
It’s unclear how much to credit the batter/fielder/pitcher for an error. The error might be partially credited to all of them and how much to credit them is a matter of subjectivity, especially if I haven’t watched the play. Even if I had seen the play it would still be subjective, but at least there would be some reasoning behind the judgment.
Jeff Sullivan over at Lookout Landing makes his own Win Probability graphs and stats and what’s great about that is he does account for fielding since he watches every game and can make an educated assessment of who deserves credit.
At the end of the season, both our numbers for Mariners players come out very close.
Cool. Thanks again, David.
When I did my WPA for 1999-2002, I would do something extreme:
1 – Give 100% credit to the pitchers on all balls in play, none to fielders
2 – Give 100% credit to the fielders on all balls in play, none to pitchers
Guess what? I got practically the same results overall. (DIPS anyone?)
Granted, Mark Prior’s 2003 meltdown would be different from an error-fest. So, for 1 game, you have an uncertainty level. But, on the aggregate, it won’t make much difference.
And, more importantly, the data detail makes it pretty hard to figure out how much WPA to credit Carlos Beltran on a particular play in CF.