The Top 50 American League Prospects
Following up the recent Top 10 lists for each club in Major League Baseball, we now have the Top 50 prospects in the American League. Tomorrow, we’ll look at the Top 50 prospects in the National League. On Friday, we’ll unveil the Top 100 MLB prospects list, which will be a blend of the two lists. I’d like to thank both Bryan Smith and Erik Manning for their inputs on the lists.
We have a pretty exciting year planned for prospect analysis here at FanGraphs and RotoGraphs… so be sure to keep us bookmarked. It’s going to be an exciting year.
The Top 10 AL Prospects
1. Desmond Jennings, OF, Tampa Bay Rays
2. Neftali Feliz, RHP, Texas Rangers
3. Carlos Santana, C, Cleveland Indians
4. Jesus Montero, C/1B, New York Yankees
5. Dustin Ackley, 2B/OF, Seattle Mariners
6. Brian Matusz, LHP, Baltimore Orioles
7. Jeremy Hellickson, RHP, Tampa Bay Rays
8. Justin Smoak, 1B, Texas Rangers
9. Chris Carter, 1B, Oakland Athletics
10. Martin Perez, LHP, Texas Rangers
Just Missed the Top 10
11. Casey Kelly, RHP, Boston Red Sox
12. Aaron Hicks, OF, Minnesota Twins
13. Tim Beckham, SS, Tampa Bay Rays
14. Wade Davis, RHP, Tampa Bay Rays
15. Michael Montgomery, LHP, Kansas City Royals
16. Brett Wallace, 3B/1B, Toronto Blue Jays
17. Kyle Drabek, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays
18. Ryan Westmoreland, OF, Boston Red Sox
19. Josh Bell, 3B, Baltimore Orioles
20. Tyler Flowers, C, Chicago White Sox
The Middle of the Pack
21. Hank Conger, C, Los Angeles Angels
22. Mike Moustakas, 3B, Kansas City Royals
23. Wilson Ramos, C, Minnesota Twins
24. Casey Crosby, LHP, Detroit Tigers
25. Eric Hosmer, 1B, Kansas City Royals
26. Austin Romine, C, New York Yankees
27. Michael Taylor, OF, Oakland Athletics
28. Austin Jackson, OF, Detroit Tigers
29. Matthew Moore, LHP, Tampa Bay Rays
30. Lonnie Chisenhall, 3B, Cleveland Indians
31. Zach McAllister, RHP, New York Yankees
32. Zach Stewart, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays
33. Daniel Hudson, RHP, Chicago White Sox
34. Tanner Scheppers, RHP, Texas Rangers
35. Jacob Turner, RHP, Detroit Tigers
36. Brandon Erbe, RHP, Baltimore Orioles
37. Jordan Walden, RHP, Los Angeles Angels
38. Junichi Tazawa, RHP, Boston Red Sox
39. Jake Arrieta, RHP, Baltimore Orioles
40. Alex White, RHP, Cleveland Indians
The Final 10 AL Prospects
41. Kyle Gibson, RHP, Minnesota Twins
42. Zach Britton, LHP, Baltimore Orioles
43. Mike Trout, OF, Los Angeles Angels
44. Michael Saunders, OF, Seattle Mariners
45. Nick Hagadone, LHP, Cleveland Indians
46. J.P. Arencibia, C, Toronto Blue Jays
47. Trevor Reckling, LHP, Los Angeles Angels
48. Nick Barnese, RHP, Tampa Bay Rays
49. Hector Rondon, RHP, Cleveland Indians
50. Danny Duffy, LHP, Kansas City Royals
So there you have it… Keep in mind that these lists – regardless of who does them – are subjective and I would probably create a slightly different list if I were to do it next week. There are certainly some players that I could rank a little lower or a little higher and still feel pretty good about it.
29
Marc,
What is the reasoning for Santana over Montero?
Obvious reason would be that Marc doesn’t think Montero will stick at catcher, which would warrant a lower ranking from most people.
Definitely the fact that Santana is more likely to remain behind the plate… Santana is a better all-around player where as Montero is the better slugger.
When you say slugger, do you think his contact skills are overrated by other scouts? From other scouts perspectives it seems that he is the best overall hitter other than Heyward in the Minors. Do you feel differently?
Pretty solid list, one change I would make is moving Jacob Turner up a bit. Baseball America has him at #26 in all of baseball, 13 spots ahead of Montgomery who you have at 15.
Most list have Montgomery ~13 spots higher when averaged out.
http://www.minorleagueball.com/2010/3/9/1365626/13-prospect-lists-1-final-ranking
Cool list. Thanks for posting it. I’ve been wanting to see other people’s opinions on scouts other than BA and Keith Law which are really the only 2 lists that I pay attention to as of now.
By the way not that it means much because it’s just 1 inning of Spring Training but Jacob Turner just made his pro debut today, and all he did was strikeout the side against the Yankees including Teixeira. Pretty impressive start for a 19 year old who hasn’t pitched since he was in High School 9 months ago.
I have a problem with all of the guys that aren’t exactly where they are on other lists. I’d change them all so they’re all the same.
Thanks for the sarcastic comment way to get your point across. But when the most popular and probably most respected prospect list lists a guy over 40 spots higher than he is on here(assuming he would be in the 70s if you accounted for NL) you question it. I’m not saying BA is the be all end all of prospect lists or this list should be exactly the same as them but that’s a major difference and something I didn’t really agree with.
I think those that do prospect rankings would be wise to eliminate the numbers in the list and instead group players into tiers. People will probably still object somewhat to ordering within the tiers, but this system would emphasize the differences in talent between the tiers, rather than the trivial disparities within them.
There aren’t even close to 34 better prospects in the AL than Turner.
No Aaron Crow?
Brett Wallace is a DH, Michael Taylor plays the OF. Both are ready-now mashers. Why the huge differential between them? Most other lists have them as neck and neck.
Is 11 spots really a huge difference when we are talking about overall rankings among thousands of minor league players? Except for a few guys at the top of the list who are truly “ready-now”, the evaluation of these players currently is not an exact science and I think it is pretty safe to say that both Wallace and Taylor are being considered as approximate equals today. Tomorrow, who knows?
11 spot difference just in the AL. when you add in the NL that could grow to be a 20 spot difference.
but IMO i think Taylor is a way better prospect than Wallace and would of had them flip flopped.
It’s good to see the Mets are all over this list. Clearly they have a bright future ahead of them.
Ugh. Did you. NM
If this is a joke, it is a pretty terrible one, or probably the author is trying to make fun of himself. This is an AL list.
Marc, are you committed to having equal number of prospects from NL and AL? Or could the top 100 prospects have people from the AL (or NL) who missed the top 50?
Nice list, Mark.
I know this is hardly an original observation, but man are the Rays loaded.
Yeah, good list Marc. A few things:
–Zoinks, 3 Rangers in the top 10. As an M’s fan, I’m scared right now.
–7 catchers in the AL Top 50. It does seem like a great time for catching prospects–I can’t recall a recent year when there as many highly regarded catching prospects as there are this year. And no Adam Moore, either(I do agree he probably narrowly misses the AL Top 50, but by how much is the question?)
–I’m surprised at Zach McAllister’s ranking at #31 on this list. I guess I thought his stock had fallen of late.
–I’m proud to say that before reading this list, I had heard of every single prospect name on it bar one: Hector Rondon of the Cleveland Indians. Guess I’ll have to go find out more about him. ;)
He posted a 2.23 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, with just OK peripherals (2.5 BB/9, 7.1 SO/9) in AA.
He’s only projected to be a back of the rotation starter, but his stock hasn’t really fallen.
I’m fascinated by Martin Perez’ persistently very high rankings. He doesn’t have the measurables, and he was actually whacked a round a bit at his last stop. Is this just faddish praise for Jon Daniels, or is there something I’m missing here?
Perez was 19 and playing in AA. Thats pretty special. He only pitched 26 innings in AA, thats far too small a sample to really establish much. He was probably running out of gas from his first full season of baseball too.
Perez has a ~50% GB rate, and limits his homeruns, while racking up K’s and keeping his walks low.
Can someone please explain the Tim Beckham (and to a lesser extent Mike Moustakas) love? He hasn’t done anything since being drafted. A guy shouldn’t make a top prospects list simply because of his draft position.
I’m in agreement with you.
Beckham at #13 and Jacob Turner at #35, and I will bet you there is not a single GM in the AL who would prefer to have Beckham over Turner. Not one.
What’s with the Danny Duffy hate everywhere?
I was surprised to see Josh Bell so high (#19)… also that his name links to the other Josh Bell, the former minor league pitcher.
I’m actually bid Bell at market prices. He seems to have made a leap this Spring.