The Twins Acquire Orlando Cabrera
The Twins picked up shortstop Orlando Cabrera from the As, looking to solidify their middle infield as they chase the Tigers and fend off the White Sox in hopes of a AL Central title.
Cabrera replaces Nick Punto at short for the Twins, a major offensive upgrade. Cabrera has a rest of the season ZIPS projected wOBA of .316, while Punto a meager .287. Over the maybe 200 at-bats he will get this is a 5 run upgrade. Calculating the difference in defense is a little tougher. Cabrera’s UZR has been very bad this year, but UZR is prone to rather large fluctuations. It is better to just use his career numbers, +5 UZR/150, as our best guess for him going forward. Over Punto’s career he is a +15 UZR/150 shortstop, but that is over only 1.5 seasons, not really enough to be confident. Plus he is only a +3 UZR/150 second baseman. Combining those and regressing our best guess is that he is around a +7.5 UZR/150 shortstop. So the difference is fielding is probably less than a run over only 50 games.
EDIT: It looks like I was wrong here. The Twins are going to shift Punto to second and Brendan Harris to the bench. So Cabrera’s offense replaces Harris’ and Punto defense at second replaces Harris’. Harris has a projected wOBA of .296, so Cabrera’s .316 over 200 PAs should be worth 3.5 runs. I think Harris is probably about -5 run defender at second while Punto something like a +5 run defender. Over 50 games this is another 3 runs. So over all probably still about half a win. Thanks to the commenters for pointing this out.
All told this is about a half a win gain for Twins, not an insignificant number in the thick of a playoff race. Cabrera does not have any value beyond that. His contract says he cannot be offered arbitration, so he will not be any worth picks if the Twins do not resign him. Last year Cabrera was a Type A free agent and he felt, rightly, that status depressed his value, so he included this clause in his current contract.
The Twins gave up their 2008 second round pick, 21 year old shortstop Tyler Ladendorf. Ladendorf had a great 74 plate apperances in rookie ball with an OPS over 1.2, but has had a tough 65 at-bats since being promoted to A ball, with an OPS of 0.559. He fell just outside of John Sickels top 20 Twins prospects, but Sickels likes him thinking he has the tools to stay at short.
I like the deal. The Twins are exactly the type of team, in tight contention for a playoff spot, who should be dealing. Thus even half a win is quite valuable to them. Cabrera’s contract limited his value, because he cannot be offered arbitration, so the As did a nice job getting something of value for him.
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Getting anything back for Cabrera, who’s been a disaster on stilts for Oakland’s generally disastrous club this season, is a win for the A’s.
I agree. The worst-case scenario is a wash–the A’s get nothing for nothing.
Looks like V-Mart is beantown bound. And Buchholz isn’t involved.
Actually, Cabrera replaces Alexi Casilla because Punto will slide over and play 2b. As bad as Punto is with the bat, Casilla is much worse. Punto is also a defensive upgrade at second, so this may be worth slightly more than .5 win for the Twins.
I think that Cabrera evicting Brendan Harris from the lineup hurts the team almost as much as replacing Casilla with Punto helps. It’s a good idea to get Casilla out of the lineup, to be sure, but the easiest and most logical move was to call up the 25 year old Steven Tolleson with a .357 wOBA in AAA this year.
I take slight issue with this calculation of Cabrera’s defensive value going forward, mainly because he’s 34 and it seems rather likely that he’s not nearly the same player he was last year. Specifically, his -6.0 RangeRating is worrisome for a usually rangy player. Coupled with his declining speed scores (5.1 in 2007, 4.6 in 2008, 3.5 this year), it’s obvious he’s lost a step. I fail to see how he’s any better than Nick Punto at this point.
The worst part for Twins fans, though, is that their best middle infielder, Brendan Harris, will be moved to the bench. (This seems rather inevitable if you follow the team and have become familiar with Gardenhire’s particular brand of idiocy). Cabrera at SS, Punto/Casilla at 2B < Harris/Punto at SS, Casilla/Punto at 2B.
The Twins gave up almost nothing in the trade, but also it probably hurts them a few runs this year.
Don’t forget those inevitable days when Crede is unable to play, Punto will probably get the time at 3rd with Casilla at 2nd.
Gardy loves him some Punto.
Harris was already being pushed to the bench. He has been slumping and with Crede healthy (for the time being) Harris was unlikely to see much playing time.
I’m not overly crazy about this trade because I think the Twins aren’t going too far even if they manage to win the Central. Still they didn’t give up much for O-Cab so I won’t complain. I wish they could have picked up a player like Sanchez who would be around next year, but Smith wasn’t willing to pay the price.
As a long-time Twins fan I have become accostomed to the July 31 letdown.
Cabrera is actually pushing Harris from short, not Punto. This could be a slight upgrade for the Twins, but it will in actuality not change a thing. Currently Cabrera and Harris’ offensive production is a wash, and with Punto remaining at second, what has changed? Maybe slightly better defense from Cabrera at short, but that is it. A hole remains at second and the fact that the Twins did anything at all is once again good enough for blind Twins fans. They ignored the true need for a competent second baseman, passing on Lopez and Sanchez, and have chosen instead to swap out players with very similar production. With the Tigers and White Sox making major upgrades to their starting pitching, the Twins have once again been outdone.
I think Cabrera is far more likely to come off his recent insane, unsustainable hot streak than he is to actually IMPROVE his offense as the year goes on. In other words, I think he’s more likely to finish around Punto’s .287 than he is a projected .316. Guy just doesn’t hit very many balls hard anymore. For the past month he’s been getting by on bleeders through the infield and little flares to right field. I can’t imagine that continues for 2 more months.
Yeah, and a BABIP in July over 100 points over his career norms… yeah, that’s not sustainable.
Congratulations. I believe that spelling a relatively simple name like “Cabrera” four different ways in one short item is some kind of record.
Honestly I’m glad that Cabrera can’t be offered arbitration. This way, the Twins can’t screw themselves by offering it, attempting to get the draft picks, and then watching in shock as a declining middle infielder in his mid-30’s accepts only to get paid a few million dollars.
This was a fine price to pay for Cabrera. It’s not really anything, at least not now, and for a two-month rental for a profile like O-Cab the A’s really couldn’t have expected much more.
good job bill smith. lose slowey for the year and now we’re buyers. keep it going, maybe we can pull another garza for delmon move!!!! die bill smith die!!!
*Garza and Bartlett for Young and Harris, I think you meant.
/rubbing salt in wound.