The Underrated $64 Million Man
Adrian Beltre signed a 5 year, $64 million contract with the Mariners after his amazing 2004 season. Anyone expecting a repeat of that kind of performance was in for an instant disappointment, and Beltre failed to live up to even more modest expectations during his first year in Seattle, posting a .255/.303/.414 and being proclaimed a free agent bust. That label has stuck, and it’s still fairly common to see Beltre written about as an overpaid, under performing disappointment.
It’s just not true.
Beltre has been one of the better third baseman in the American League for the better part for the last two years, and he’s putting the finishing touches on an April that is one of his best months since coming over from the Dodgers. In last night’s game against Cleveland, he went 2-2 with a single, a three run home run that broke a 2-2 tie in the 9th inning, and three walks to reach base in all five of his trips to the plate. His 2008 line now stands at .309/.409/.553, or basically indistinguishable from what David Wright is giving the Mets and Aramis Ramirez is putting up for the Cubs. There isn’t a third baseman in the American League off to a better start to the season than Beltre.
He doesn’t have to keep hitting like this to justify his contract, however. In 2006 and 2007, Beltre put up two seasons of similar quality to each other, establishing himself as a slightly better than league average hitter while playing a quality defensive third base. Among American League third baseman, the only guys with an argument as superior players are Alex Rodriguez and Mike Lowell. While he’s obviously not in A-Rod’s class, you have to wonder how much their respective home parks are influencing the opinions of Lowell and Beltre. Put Lowell in Safeco and Beltre in Fenway and I’m not sure this is still a conversation we’re having.
Even if Beltre doesn’t sustain his April performance (and he probably won’t - he’s a very streaky hitter who always has good months and lousy ones), he’s still an above average major league player, 2-3 wins better than a replacement level third baseman, and in the American League, that makes him a borderline All-Star. The Mariners didn’t sign him to recreate his 2004 season in perpetuity - they signed him to be a quality player at the hot corner, and that’s exactly what he is.
ollie said,
April 30, 2008 @ 8:51 am
He doesn’t seem to have any of those nagging injuries (thumb, hammy) so far which I hope leads to offensive highs for him as a Mariner this season. The defense he plays is indeed fun to watch. He also appeals on his own checked swings better than anyone in the game!
Jason said,
April 30, 2008 @ 9:30 am
I love Beltre. Thanks for some truth, Dave.
Eric Seidman said,
April 30, 2008 @ 9:54 am
Yeah I hate misconceptions based on unrealistic expectations. Not to say that I don’t sometimes fall into that trap, because I think everyone does at one point or another, but signing Beltre to this deal is different than say the Orioles signing Javy Lopez after that career year.
Lopez was 33 going on 34 whereas Beltre was 25. Even if he was never going to hit 40+ home runs again, Beltre is still a very attractive commodity at the time due to the potential of what he could do, his age, and their need. Other than HR and RBI, which are still pretty consistent from 2006 to 2007, his numbers from 2005-2007 are all very consistent (AB, R, H, distribution of XBH, BB, K).
Chris Miller said,
April 30, 2008 @ 10:05 am
Thanks Dave! I had a feeling this post was coming sooner or later. Keep up the great work. Something I was starting to miss was these kinds of articles on USSM. Now I get to read them every day!
If anything, this shows his 2005 seasons is more downside than true talent.
jlc said,
April 30, 2008 @ 11:43 am
“He doesn’t seem to have any of those nagging injuries (thumb, hammy) so far …”
Actually he’s playing the season with essentially a torn ligament in his thumb. Beltre’ is a beast like that–he plays through everything.
AB is one of the reasons I hate the steroid era. There’s a group of people who belive he juiced as a Dodger, and his slow start in Seattle topped it for them. No amount of performance will convince them, and I haven’t seen any evidence he used. That broad-brush of calling everyone with a career season a user is so unfair to the guys who did it the hard way–through working hard and making the most of their talents.
PositivePaul said,
April 30, 2008 @ 12:41 pm
I still go back to my original thoughts upon hearing the news that Beltre was signing with the Mariners. I was shocked — SHOCKED — to hear that he only was signed for 5 years. I was expecting at least 7-8 years, especially for the M’s to land him. How long would you extend his contract, then? I know Boras doesn’t go for extensions, but it seems like Beltre might actually want to stay in Seattle. Since he takes a bit of adjustment to a new environment, I could see where he’d prefer to stay where he is for a change, especially since he’s appreciated.
If the M’s are going to sign a 30-something player to an extension, it’d sure be nice if it’d be one that actually would likely contribute over the course of that contract…
MlbFan30 said,
April 30, 2008 @ 3:59 pm
Off-Topic but…
I was wondering if you can link me to any studies of Old player VS Young Player skills. Like the age difference between peak, decline, etc.
Thanks
Sentinel said,
April 30, 2008 @ 8:30 pm
Well put, Dave. Long has Adrian Beltre gone unappreciated, even by the Seattle fanbase. I, for one, can’t think of anyone I would rather have, even when you consider Alex Rodriguez. Adrian has good skills and a great personality. One of the better moves the Seattle organization has made in recent years.
Jason said,
April 30, 2008 @ 9:22 pm
Beltre is actually my favorite players on the M’s. He plays elite defense and can really whack the ball. He’s an upbeat guy and a team player.
I love his little dance when he holds off swinging at a ball.