Comments on: The Underrated Brad Bergesen http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-underrated-brad-bergesen/ Daily baseball statistical analysis and commentary Sun, 12 Feb 2012 23:34:21 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: Jeff http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-underrated-brad-bergesen/#comment-83054 Jeff Wed, 01 Jul 2009 23:59:20 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=5959#comment-83054 For JamesDaBear, how about Boston's offense? Bradley just threw up a 8.0 IP, 4 H 1 ER 0 BB 6 K line. Shame the bullpen coughed it up. For JamesDaBear, how about Boston’s offense?

Bradley just threw up a 8.0 IP, 4 H 1 ER 0 BB 6 K line.

Shame the bullpen coughed it up.

]]> By: Dave H. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-underrated-brad-bergesen/#comment-82669 Dave H. Tue, 30 Jun 2009 04:34:21 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=5959#comment-82669 one thing people who are trying to tear him down have to remember is his first few starts (his poorer ones) were with Zaun behind the plate. When he got Wieters back there he became a different pitcher and by his own admission said that Wieters was a huge part of his settling down into what he's been now. If you want to throw games away (which I never understood and is usually just a tactic to "prove' a point when no better facts are available) then maybe you should be throwing those out. Then you'll find he's even better then the numbers have shown. I dont project him as more than a 4 guy once the big guns start moving up, but thats still a valuable commodity. one thing people who are trying to tear him down have to remember is his first few starts (his poorer ones) were with Zaun behind the plate. When he got Wieters back there he became a different pitcher and by his own admission said that Wieters was a huge part of his settling down into what he’s been now. If you want to throw games away (which I never understood and is usually just a tactic to “prove’ a point when no better facts are available) then maybe you should be throwing those out. Then you’ll find he’s even better then the numbers have shown. I dont project him as more than a 4 guy once the big guns start moving up, but thats still a valuable commodity.

]]> By: Jon http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-underrated-brad-bergesen/#comment-82608 Jon Mon, 29 Jun 2009 18:16:52 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=5959#comment-82608 My assertion was that he wasn't getting much attention because he didn't really deserve it. The 3.76 ERA and 4.32 FIP are both noteworthy, but he's got a real problem missing bats (K/9 under 5 in 83 MLB innings this year and 150 AA innings last year) and he's been somewhat BABIP-lucky (.274 this year). This works if you don't walk anyone and limit your home runs but it's a tough way to be a successful pitcher. Given that he's a guy so reliant on factors outside of his control (defense behind him, ballpark he's pitching in), he seems like someone who should be toiling in relative anonymity. My assertion was that he wasn’t getting much attention because he didn’t really deserve it. The 3.76 ERA and 4.32 FIP are both noteworthy, but he’s got a real problem missing bats (K/9 under 5 in 83 MLB innings this year and 150 AA innings last year) and he’s been somewhat BABIP-lucky (.274 this year). This works if you don’t walk anyone and limit your home runs but it’s a tough way to be a successful pitcher.

Given that he’s a guy so reliant on factors outside of his control (defense behind him, ballpark he’s pitching in), he seems like someone who should be toiling in relative anonymity.

]]> By: JH http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-underrated-brad-bergesen/#comment-82532 JH Sun, 28 Jun 2009 15:07:36 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=5959#comment-82532 Yep. The Nationals suck at pitching and defense, but their offense has the 6th-best wOBA in the National League (ranking teams out of 30 is unfair since pitchers hit in the NL). The Tigers are 9th in the AL, and their wOBA is .331. That's not a shabby number. Slightly below average, but 20 points higher than the Mariners. Instead of trying to throw away several of Bergeson's starts against poor teams (some of which are actually right around league average), why not actually look at numbers that reflect this? Every pitcher faces good teams and bad teams. BP, for all it's slipped in the analytical community, still keeps track of a nice stat called Pitchers' Quality of Batters Faced. Bergeson's batters this season have hit a cumulative .260/.335/.420. That's a .755 OPS. The league average AL OPS is .762. The difference in runs over a full season between those two numbers is pretty negligible. Yep.

The Nationals suck at pitching and defense, but their offense has the 6th-best wOBA in the National League (ranking teams out of 30 is unfair since pitchers hit in the NL). The Tigers are 9th in the AL, and their wOBA is .331. That’s not a shabby number. Slightly below average, but 20 points higher than the Mariners.

Instead of trying to throw away several of Bergeson’s starts against poor teams (some of which are actually right around league average), why not actually look at numbers that reflect this? Every pitcher faces good teams and bad teams. BP, for all it’s slipped in the analytical community, still keeps track of a nice stat called Pitchers’ Quality of Batters Faced. Bergeson’s batters this season have hit a cumulative .260/.335/.420. That’s a .755 OPS. The league average AL OPS is .762. The difference in runs over a full season between those two numbers is pretty negligible.

]]> By: Chris http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-underrated-brad-bergesen/#comment-82490 Chris Sun, 28 Jun 2009 00:05:13 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=5959#comment-82490 Both the Nationals and Tigers offenses are better than what you're giving them credit for. I'm not saying they're two of the best in the league, but they certainly aren't on the same level as the A's or Giants. Both the Nationals and Tigers offenses are better than what you’re giving them credit for. I’m not saying they’re two of the best in the league, but they certainly aren’t on the same level as the A’s or Giants.

]]> By: JamesDaBear http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-underrated-brad-bergesen/#comment-82479 JamesDaBear Sat, 27 Jun 2009 18:10:47 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=5959#comment-82479 I'm underwhelmed. If you take out the two games against the Mariners and his latest effort against the Nationals, and pitchers should dominate those offenses, he's looked very ordinary at best, with the exception of his games against Detroit and Atlanta, who are really in the Nationals/Mariners category. I'm not going to write him off completely because obviously there are enough bad offenses out there he could dominate, but I won't expect that from him unless he's facing one of them. I’m underwhelmed. If you take out the two games against the Mariners and his latest effort against the Nationals, and pitchers should dominate those offenses, he’s looked very ordinary at best, with the exception of his games against Detroit and Atlanta, who are really in the Nationals/Mariners category. I’m not going to write him off completely because obviously there are enough bad offenses out there he could dominate, but I won’t expect that from him unless he’s facing one of them.

]]> By: OsandRoayals http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-underrated-brad-bergesen/#comment-82439 OsandRoayals Sat, 27 Jun 2009 04:38:29 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=5959#comment-82439 I suspect that Brad Bergenson will probably end up close to a number 3 pitcher. The most important thing to remember about him is that he is a rookie on an AL East team which means he's facing some tough offenses. As a rookie he's lasting an average of 6.433 innings a start. He has a solid WHIP at the moment at 1.24 so not elite but very good. His BABIP at .276 is lower than average for an MLBer but except for his half-season at high-A is right in line with his minor league averages whose teams tend to play worse defense than MLB teams. As a pitch to contact pitcher Bergy should outpitch his FIP most years and if he figures out how to go deeper into games he should become an inning-eating workhorse in Cardinals starter mold. Word of warning though is that he's currently outpitching his FIP by half a run although I don't know why its such a stark difference I suspect that Brad Bergenson will probably end up close to a number 3 pitcher. The most important thing to remember about him is that he is a rookie on an AL East team which means he’s facing some tough offenses. As a rookie he’s lasting an average of 6.433 innings a start.

He has a solid WHIP at the moment at 1.24 so not elite but very good. His BABIP at .276 is lower than average for an MLBer but except for his half-season at high-A is right in line with his minor league averages whose teams tend to play worse defense than MLB teams.

As a pitch to contact pitcher Bergy should outpitch his FIP most years and if he figures out how to go deeper into games he should become an inning-eating workhorse in Cardinals starter mold.
Word of warning though is that he’s currently outpitching his FIP by half a run although I don’t know why its such a stark difference

]]> By: eric http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-underrated-brad-bergesen/#comment-82425 eric Sat, 27 Jun 2009 02:24:13 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=5959#comment-82425 And another good game from bergy tonight And another good game from bergy tonight

]]> By: Will http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-underrated-brad-bergesen/#comment-82424 Will Sat, 27 Jun 2009 02:24:01 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=5959#comment-82424 Appropriately timed article. Bergesen just dismantled the Nats tonight. Appropriately timed article. Bergesen just dismantled the Nats tonight.

]]> By: TROY PATTON http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-underrated-brad-bergesen/#comment-82415 TROY PATTON Sat, 27 Jun 2009 01:22:30 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=5959#comment-82415 What's going on with Troy Patton? Is he in the mix this year? He's back from labrum surgery, pitched really well in AA and just got called up in AAA. Is he a future back-end rotation guy for the O's or will he wind up in the pen? He's still pretty young. Stats: http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=P&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=461856 Thoughts on Patton? What’s going on with Troy Patton? Is he in the mix this year? He’s back from labrum surgery, pitched really well in AA and just got called up in AAA. Is he a future back-end rotation guy for the O’s or will he wind up in the pen? He’s still pretty young.

Stats:
http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=P&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=461856

Thoughts on Patton?

]]>