Comments on: The Unluckiest April Pitchers http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-unluckiest-april-pitchers/ Daily baseball statistical analysis and commentary Mon, 13 Feb 2012 00:21:02 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: Choo http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-unluckiest-april-pitchers/#comment-33319 Choo Wed, 30 Apr 2008 20:50:02 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-unluckiest-april-pitchers/#comment-33319 The reason I would exclude Duke based on his poor K/BB ratio is because a poor K/BB ratio expands the window of opportunity for bad luck to rear its ugly head. Keeping a hitter from putting the ball into play, whether the results is good (K) or bad (BB), is the most controllable factor a pitcher has regarding his outcome. When a pitcher like Duke fails to generate a healthy disparity between K’s (2.83 K/9) and BB’s (2.51 K/BB), his bad luck is essentially watered down – i.e. he is creating more precarious situations for himself by allowing hitters to put the ball in play. NOTE: I don’t claim to be a certified sabermatrician, nor did I stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night. On a side note, I ran FIP-ERA for all of the SP’s last night. Interesting stuff. Johnny Cueto was one of the first pitchers to catch my eye. How would explain his numbers so far? Are they the result of bad luck or just what happens when extremely good outings are mixed with extremely poor ones? HR’s (1.54 HR/9) combined with a brutal LOB% (52.3%), but an average BABIP (.285) and outstanding K/9 (8.49) and BB/9 (1.54)? Excluding what I see when I watch him pitch on TV, I have idea what to make of his immediate future. The reason I would exclude Duke based on his poor K/BB ratio is because a poor K/BB ratio expands the window of opportunity for bad luck to rear its ugly head. Keeping a hitter from putting the ball into play, whether the results is good (K) or bad (BB), is the most controllable factor a pitcher has regarding his outcome. When a pitcher like Duke fails to generate a healthy disparity between K’s (2.83 K/9) and BB’s (2.51 K/BB), his bad luck is essentially watered down – i.e. he is creating more precarious situations for himself by allowing hitters to put the ball in play.

NOTE: I don’t claim to be a certified sabermatrician, nor did I stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night.

On a side note, I ran FIP-ERA for all of the SP’s last night. Interesting stuff. Johnny Cueto was one of the first pitchers to catch my eye. How would explain his numbers so far? Are they the result of bad luck or just what happens when extremely good outings are mixed with extremely poor ones? HR’s (1.54 HR/9) combined with a brutal LOB% (52.3%), but an average BABIP (.285) and outstanding K/9 (8.49) and BB/9 (1.54)? Excluding what I see when I watch him pitch on TV, I have idea what to make of his immediate future.

]]> By: Tom Au http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-unluckiest-april-pitchers/#comment-33304 Tom Au Wed, 30 Apr 2008 16:26:08 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-unluckiest-april-pitchers/#comment-33304 I guess I had an old formula (and a made-up) name for this concept. I guess I had an old formula (and a made-up) name for this concept.

]]> By: Eric Seidman http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-unluckiest-april-pitchers/#comment-33303 Eric Seidman Wed, 30 Apr 2008 15:56:55 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-unluckiest-april-pitchers/#comment-33303 Yeah, Tom, what you're referring to as SabERA is already around, with the name FIP, which can be found here at Fangraphs. The constant is around 3.20. Yeah, Tom, what you’re referring to as SabERA is already around, with the name FIP, which can be found here at Fangraphs. The constant is around 3.20.

]]> By: Dave Cameron http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-unluckiest-april-pitchers/#comment-33302 Dave Cameron Wed, 30 Apr 2008 15:55:04 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-unluckiest-april-pitchers/#comment-33302 So, you took FIP, changed the constant, and renamed it SabERA? Why? So, you took FIP, changed the constant, and renamed it SabERA? Why?

]]> By: Tom Au http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-unluckiest-april-pitchers/#comment-33301 Tom Au Wed, 30 Apr 2008 15:48:31 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-unluckiest-april-pitchers/#comment-33301 Here are my standings based on my calculations (SabERA is calculated by 3.00+(13*HR+3BB-2K)/IP). The difference is with ERA, and "unluckiness" is measured by this difference between theoretical and actual performance. Snell's figures are updated for last night's game vs. the Mets. Player ERA SabERA Difference Rank Robertson 6.91 3.87 3.03 1 Duke 5.34 3.66 1.68 2 Snell 4.93 3.73 1.20 3 Blackburn 3.45 2.43 1.02 4 Blackburn is clearly the best pitcher of the four, but his actual results are most nearly reflective of his theoretical ones (compared to the others). Robertson is (by a small margin) the "worst" of the four, but his actual results do him the least justice, which is why he ranks tops in this exercise. I disagree with Choo that Duke should be excluded because of his low strikeout total, because Duke also gives up few walks and home runs. Because Ks are less valuable than BBs and HRs, I wouldn't at all mind having a pitcher with 0 HRs, O BBs and O Ks, who only has to worry about BABIP. I note with interest that two of the four starters in this group are Pirates. Does this mean that we can expect this team to "regress" toward .500 when their pitchers' actual ERAs regress downward toward their hypotheticals? Here are my standings based on my calculations (SabERA is calculated by 3.00+(13*HR+3BB-2K)/IP). The difference is with ERA, and “unluckiness” is measured by this difference between theoretical and actual performance. Snell’s figures are updated for last night’s game vs. the Mets.

Player ERA SabERA Difference Rank
Robertson 6.91 3.87 3.03 1
Duke 5.34 3.66 1.68 2
Snell 4.93 3.73 1.20 3
Blackburn 3.45 2.43 1.02 4

Blackburn is clearly the best pitcher of the four, but his actual results are most nearly reflective of his theoretical ones (compared to the others). Robertson is (by a small margin) the “worst” of the four, but his actual results do him the least justice, which is why he ranks tops in this exercise.

I disagree with Choo that Duke should be excluded because of his low strikeout total, because Duke also gives up few walks and home runs. Because Ks are less valuable than BBs and HRs, I wouldn’t at all mind having a pitcher with 0 HRs, O BBs and O Ks, who only has to worry about BABIP.

I note with interest that two of the four starters in this group are Pirates. Does this mean that we can expect this team to “regress” toward .500 when their pitchers’ actual ERAs regress downward toward their hypotheticals?

]]> By: Eric Seidman http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-unluckiest-april-pitchers/#comment-33300 Eric Seidman Wed, 30 Apr 2008 15:11:43 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-unluckiest-april-pitchers/#comment-33300 So if we look at Nick Blackburn over the last two years we get this: 2007: 25.6 LD%, xBABIP of .376, BABIP of .406 2008: 17.6 LD%, xBABIP of .296, BABIP of .347 So if we look at Nick Blackburn over the last two years we get this:

2007: 25.6 LD%, xBABIP of .376, BABIP of .406
2008: 17.6 LD%, xBABIP of .296, BABIP of .347

]]> By: Mitch W http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-unluckiest-april-pitchers/#comment-33299 Mitch W Wed, 30 Apr 2008 15:06:27 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-unluckiest-april-pitchers/#comment-33299 Thanks for the info. in your comment above, Eric. Interesting. Thanks for the info. in your comment above, Eric. Interesting.

]]> By: Eric Seidman http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-unluckiest-april-pitchers/#comment-33296 Eric Seidman Wed, 30 Apr 2008 14:44:24 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-unluckiest-april-pitchers/#comment-33296 Choo, very good stuff. Choo, very good stuff.

]]> By: Choo http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-unluckiest-april-pitchers/#comment-33280 Choo Wed, 30 Apr 2008 08:54:14 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-unluckiest-april-pitchers/#comment-33280 Blackburn not only has the best K/BB ratio of the group, but he yet to allow a single homer. I would say he has experienced the worst luck so far. Of the four unlucky pitchers mentioned, I think you have to exclude Duke for his weak K/BB ratio in comparison to the other three - or just in general for that matter. In order of worst luck: Blackburn Robertson Snell Duke Blackburn not only has the best K/BB ratio of the group, but he yet to allow a single homer. I would say he has experienced the worst luck so far. Of the four unlucky pitchers mentioned, I think you have to exclude Duke for his weak K/BB ratio in comparison to the other three – or just in general for that matter.

In order of worst luck:
Blackburn
Robertson
Snell
Duke

]]> By: Eric Seidman http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-unluckiest-april-pitchers/#comment-33277 Eric Seidman Wed, 30 Apr 2008 04:33:08 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-unluckiest-april-pitchers/#comment-33277 I included him in the article. He and Zito didn't meet the FIP under 4.30 requirement. I have no doubt CC will end up with a solid season but with this I was looking more for being unlucky because of higher numbers that mask good numbers. Sabathia's FIP is still pretty high despite his large discrepancy. I included him in the article. He and Zito didn’t meet the FIP under 4.30 requirement. I have no doubt CC will end up with a solid season but with this I was looking more for being unlucky because of higher numbers that mask good numbers. Sabathia’s FIP is still pretty high despite his large discrepancy.

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