Comments on: The Value Of A Win To A Losing Team http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-value-of-a-win-to-a-losing-team/ Daily baseball statistical analysis and commentary Mon, 13 Feb 2012 01:42:02 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: JH http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-value-of-a-win-to-a-losing-team/#comment-106039 JH Thu, 05 Nov 2009 00:02:57 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=11022#comment-106039 If Dave was writing a Masters' thesis, you'd have a point. This is a blog post, and he writes two per day that we get to read for free. The worst teams in the league routinely have very poor attendance. Teams that contend draw more fans. If Dave was trying to say that the precise cost of the contract will result in a precise increase in profitability, we would expect him to come at the discussion with concrete data. All he's saying is that a team that decides it won't be a contender shouldn't let good value acquisitions pass them by and accept yet another 60-win season. Anyone who's sat through a weekend series at PNC park knows that a decade of losing hurts attendance and demoralizes a fan base, even if they can't put it into exact numbers. If Dave was writing a Masters’ thesis, you’d have a point. This is a blog post, and he writes two per day that we get to read for free. The worst teams in the league routinely have very poor attendance. Teams that contend draw more fans. If Dave was trying to say that the precise cost of the contract will result in a precise increase in profitability, we would expect him to come at the discussion with concrete data. All he’s saying is that a team that decides it won’t be a contender shouldn’t let good value acquisitions pass them by and accept yet another 60-win season.

Anyone who’s sat through a weekend series at PNC park knows that a decade of losing hurts attendance and demoralizes a fan base, even if they can’t put it into exact numbers.

]]> By: JH http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-value-of-a-win-to-a-losing-team/#comment-106036 JH Wed, 04 Nov 2009 23:51:06 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=11022#comment-106036 Right. So, understanding that, the GM should be looking to make good, low-cost moves instead of mortgaging the future. That way, if everything goes right, he's acquired one more piece that could add a win or two and improve the odds of contention that much more. If it doesn't, he paid a guy about what he was worth to make his team marginally better than it would have been otherwise, and sacrificed nothing in the future except maybe a 1-2 slot difference in draft position. Nobody's arguing the Pirates are a likely contender next year. That doesn't mean that a GM should make absolutely no effort to improve the 2010 version. Iwamura helps the 2010 team without hindering the organization's long-term plans in any way. Right. So, understanding that, the GM should be looking to make good, low-cost moves instead of mortgaging the future. That way, if everything goes right, he’s acquired one more piece that could add a win or two and improve the odds of contention that much more. If it doesn’t, he paid a guy about what he was worth to make his team marginally better than it would have been otherwise, and sacrificed nothing in the future except maybe a 1-2 slot difference in draft position.

Nobody’s arguing the Pirates are a likely contender next year. That doesn’t mean that a GM should make absolutely no effort to improve the 2010 version. Iwamura helps the 2010 team without hindering the organization’s long-term plans in any way.

]]> By: JH http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-value-of-a-win-to-a-losing-team/#comment-106035 JH Wed, 04 Nov 2009 23:47:01 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=11022#comment-106035 Just as important, it's not like there's some sort of established powerhouse in the NL Central. If the Pirates can make the necessary improvements to get to a 78-81 win team on true talent, good luck and a down year by the multiple imperfect teams in the division could get them into contention in what has been the most unpredictable division in baseball in recent years. The Pirates have a lot of flaws coming into next year, but there's upside there as well. McCutchen looks like a bona fide star, Garrett Jones came out of nowhere to give them a .396 wOBA last year, and Milledge, Alvarez, and Andy LaRoche all have at least some breakout potential. Neither Jones maintaining his '09 performance or breakouts from any of the 3 guys I mentioned are particularly likely (Milledge and Laroche are perpetual disappointments and Alvarez will start the year in the minors), but there's a non-zero chance for the stars to align and result in a pretty good offense for the Pirates next year. I don't expect it to happen, but a good GM looking at a volatile core like the Pirates, which has both significant tank potential and some real upside, and surrounds those guys with solid players acquired at bargain prices on the off chance that absolutely everything goes right. That's the key difference between what Huntington did in the Iwamura trade and the kind of worthless spending Dayton Moore did with the Royals last offseason. Just as important, it’s not like there’s some sort of established powerhouse in the NL Central. If the Pirates can make the necessary improvements to get to a 78-81 win team on true talent, good luck and a down year by the multiple imperfect teams in the division could get them into contention in what has been the most unpredictable division in baseball in recent years.

The Pirates have a lot of flaws coming into next year, but there’s upside there as well. McCutchen looks like a bona fide star, Garrett Jones came out of nowhere to give them a .396 wOBA last year, and Milledge, Alvarez, and Andy LaRoche all have at least some breakout potential.

Neither Jones maintaining his ’09 performance or breakouts from any of the 3 guys I mentioned are particularly likely (Milledge and Laroche are perpetual disappointments and Alvarez will start the year in the minors), but there’s a non-zero chance for the stars to align and result in a pretty good offense for the Pirates next year. I don’t expect it to happen, but a good GM looking at a volatile core like the Pirates, which has both significant tank potential and some real upside, and surrounds those guys with solid players acquired at bargain prices on the off chance that absolutely everything goes right.

That’s the key difference between what Huntington did in the Iwamura trade and the kind of worthless spending Dayton Moore did with the Royals last offseason.

]]> By: Grizz http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-value-of-a-win-to-a-losing-team/#comment-106034 Grizz Wed, 04 Nov 2009 23:46:43 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=11022#comment-106034 Branyan (or Griffey for that matter) did not block anyone. Coming into the year Carp had not played above AA and Clement was hurt and had never played 1B. Branyan (or Griffey for that matter) did not block anyone. Coming into the year Carp had not played above AA and Clement was hurt and had never played 1B.

]]> By: B http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-value-of-a-win-to-a-losing-team/#comment-106030 B Wed, 04 Nov 2009 23:20:02 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=11022#comment-106030 "Nobody can really argue attendance because I was there for two games in September and SafeCo Field was practically dead" No offense, but this statement is kind of meaningless. A few things about attendance - first, there's a large lag effect here, a lot of the relationship between winning and attendance is actually in the following year, so we won't even see a lot of the effect of winning this season on attendance until next season. Some of the reasons for this have to do with season ticket sales and the fanbases preseason expectations. Second, and this one is important, is it's all relative. It doesn't matter that it was dead. It matters how much less dead it was because the M's were winning more. That's what we mean when we talk about the marginal value of a win - the change in attendance each extra win causes. Attendance might be poor no matter what, but if there's more attendance because their record is a bit better, that's additional revenue the win(s) provided. Finally, it may be that the attendance boost, if there was one, in that season came earlier in the season when the Mariners were more in the playoff race. By September it could be the attendance boost had disappeared, but that didn't mean it wasn't present earlier in the season. This is actually an interesting thought to me, and it may be that this has a different effect on the marginal value of a win depending on how successful the team is, because the longer you stay in the playoff race the greater the effect that win is on attendance in the present year (and winning more means you're in the playoff race longer). “Nobody can really argue attendance because I was there for two games in September and SafeCo Field was practically dead”

No offense, but this statement is kind of meaningless. A few things about attendance – first, there’s a large lag effect here, a lot of the relationship between winning and attendance is actually in the following year, so we won’t even see a lot of the effect of winning this season on attendance until next season. Some of the reasons for this have to do with season ticket sales and the fanbases preseason expectations.

Second, and this one is important, is it’s all relative. It doesn’t matter that it was dead. It matters how much less dead it was because the M’s were winning more. That’s what we mean when we talk about the marginal value of a win – the change in attendance each extra win causes. Attendance might be poor no matter what, but if there’s more attendance because their record is a bit better, that’s additional revenue the win(s) provided.

Finally, it may be that the attendance boost, if there was one, in that season came earlier in the season when the Mariners were more in the playoff race. By September it could be the attendance boost had disappeared, but that didn’t mean it wasn’t present earlier in the season. This is actually an interesting thought to me, and it may be that this has a different effect on the marginal value of a win depending on how successful the team is, because the longer you stay in the playoff race the greater the effect that win is on attendance in the present year (and winning more means you’re in the playoff race longer).

]]> By: james http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-value-of-a-win-to-a-losing-team/#comment-106010 james Wed, 04 Nov 2009 21:00:47 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=11022#comment-106010 I'm not arguing against the signing of Branyan... but didn't his signing retard the development of Jeff Clement and Mike Carp as much as signing Ken Griffey, who arguably had a bigger effect on their bottom line? If the Mariners don't retain Branyan's services for 2010 (or beyond?) couldn't you look at BOTH Russell "the Muscle" and Griffey's signings as losers? Nobody can really argue attendance because I was there for two games in September and SafeCo Field was practically dead. Sure, maybe it would have died more had Griffey not came back and Branyan not helped the Mariners win significantly more games, but I was rather unimpressed with the fan base here for a team which made such a rebound. And when they were out of it by mid-August, I lamented they made the Pirates trade for a mediocre pitcher and an injured shortstop, hadn't really figured out what they had in Saunders, Carp, Tuiasosopo, etc., and gave up on a potential impact DH bat in Clement, along with the young pitching. I’m not arguing against the signing of Branyan… but didn’t his signing retard the development of Jeff Clement and Mike Carp as much as signing Ken Griffey, who arguably had a bigger effect on their bottom line? If the Mariners don’t retain Branyan’s services for 2010 (or beyond?) couldn’t you look at BOTH Russell “the Muscle” and Griffey’s signings as losers? Nobody can really argue attendance because I was there for two games in September and SafeCo Field was practically dead. Sure, maybe it would have died more had Griffey not came back and Branyan not helped the Mariners win significantly more games, but I was rather unimpressed with the fan base here for a team which made such a rebound. And when they were out of it by mid-August, I lamented they made the Pirates trade for a mediocre pitcher and an injured shortstop, hadn’t really figured out what they had in Saunders, Carp, Tuiasosopo, etc., and gave up on a potential impact DH bat in Clement, along with the young pitching.

]]> By: Chip http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-value-of-a-win-to-a-losing-team/#comment-106002 Chip Wed, 04 Nov 2009 20:22:55 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=11022#comment-106002 No sense for the Pirates? They gave up very little to put a decent player on the field, and if things go bad, and Iwamura plays as well as expected, they can certainly get more back at the deadline, see DeRosa; Indians. No sense for the Pirates? They gave up very little to put a decent player on the field, and if things go bad, and Iwamura plays as well as expected, they can certainly get more back at the deadline, see DeRosa; Indians.

]]> By: knox http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-value-of-a-win-to-a-losing-team/#comment-105990 knox Wed, 04 Nov 2009 19:25:38 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=11022#comment-105990 Thanks B. I appreciate the response. Thanks B. I appreciate the response.

]]> By: B http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-value-of-a-win-to-a-losing-team/#comment-105978 B Wed, 04 Nov 2009 18:44:59 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=11022#comment-105978 Yes, knox, it does. FIP is modeled on walks, HR's and K's, and NL pitchers, when they bat, hit HR's less often, walk less often, and k more often than other hitters. So NL pitchers, when they pitch, get to improve those numbers, and thus their FIP. Yes, knox, it does. FIP is modeled on walks, HR’s and K’s, and NL pitchers, when they bat, hit HR’s less often, walk less often, and k more often than other hitters. So NL pitchers, when they pitch, get to improve those numbers, and thus their FIP.

]]> By: Tom Au http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-value-of-a-win-to-a-losing-team/#comment-105943 Tom Au Wed, 04 Nov 2009 16:28:39 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=11022#comment-105943 I proposed that the Pirates acquire Ben Sheets on the Bleacher Report. I proposed that the Pirates acquire Ben Sheets on the Bleacher Report.

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