Comments on: The Vazquez Trade

By: NickP

NickP — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 21:48:23 +0000

That’s perfect. I appreciate it.

By: Eric Seidman

Eric Seidman — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 21:47:12 +0000

Nick, do you mean runs above replacement level? For pitchers, what we do is take the projected FIP and IP, and compare it to those of the replacement level. Vazquez’s weighted projections would be for 200 IP at a 3.92 FIP.

(200 * 3.92)/9 = 87 runs.

A replacement SP would log 150 IP at a 5.50 FIP, or 92 runs. The other 50 IP would go to a replacement RP at a 4.50 FIP, or 25 runs.

Put together, Vazquez at 87 runs is 30 runs better than the 117 runs of a replacement level pitcher. 30 runs above replacement = 3 wins above replacement.

By: NickP

NickP — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 21:04:36 +0000

How do you convert FIP to runs above average?

By: Scappy

Scappy — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 20:07:50 +0000

Palmer may be an example of a gross difference in the run scoring environment of the 70s. I’m not sure if FIP is adjusted on a yearly basis.

By: Terry

Terry — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 20:04:03 +0000

Here’s another-Catfish Hunter (ERA: 3.26; FIP: 3.66).

By: Terry

Terry — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 19:58:27 +0000

Here’s a crazy one (though maybe not a surprising one to those who watched Palmer). The difference between his FIP and ERA was a whopping 43% of his ERA (career ERA= 2.86; career FIP: 3.50).

By: Terry

Terry — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 19:51:22 +0000

Just for fun I started plugging in a couple arms. The first two that came to mind who pitched over 2000 innings while also playing for several teams were Jamie Moyer and Charlie Hough.

The difference between Moyer’s career FIP and career ERA was 5% of his career ERA. The difference between Hough’s career ERA and FIP was actually 14% of his ERA.

Just playing with BR’s event finder to generate a list of guys with over 2000 IP though, looks like there will be a pretty tight relationship between FIP and ERA.

By: Terry

Terry — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 19:33:05 +0000

That’s what I’m asking Dave-you obviously have a handle on what an average disparity would be. What is it?

By: Dave Cameron

Dave Cameron — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 19:16:41 +0000

That doesn’t tell you anything, though – that’s just small sample variance.

Try finding another pitcher with 2,000+ major league innings with this kind of disparity between his FIP and ERA. Good luck.

By: Terry

Terry — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 19:12:58 +0000

Just playing with some numbers for last season and the average difference between the FIP and ERA for all pitchers who threw over 120 innings was 12.3% of his ERA.

The difference between JV’s career ERA and FIP is about 9% of his career ERA.