The Winter of the Orioles
Back in September, I was lucky enough to grab lunch with Jonah Keri and Patrick Sullivan at The Friendly Toast in Cambridge, where we mostly marveled at how big the kitchen in that place must be to support a roughly 142 page menu. Once we got our food figured out, the conversation shifted to baseball. Curiously enough, a decent part of the discussion between an Expos fan, a Red Sox fan, and a Mariner fan focused on the potential moves the Baltimore Orioles might make.
The Orioles were interesting to all three of us. Through some savvy transactions (okay, mostly the Erik Bedard trade) and good drafts, the O’s have amassed an impressive group of young talents. And after years of overspending on bad veterans, the team had been financially sound, giving themselves a significant amount of financial flexibility heading into the winter.
Flush with cash and some obvious holes, it seemed like an off-season of good spending could setup the Orioles to be an interesting team in 2010, even pushing into fringe contender status if their young talent all matured quicker than expected. Especially as another strong buyer’s market emerged, this appeared to be a perfect opportunity for the Orioles to add some key pieces that could grow with the core already in place.
Instead, they ended up spending $25 million in 2010 (and $6M in 2011) to acquire Kevin Millwood, Garrett Atkins, Miguel Tejada, and Mike Gonzalez. They filled four holes, but the return on investment seems… underwhelming.
Let’s start with the two infielders. The signing of Tejada and Atkins fills the two corner spots, with Tejada expected to play third while Atkins shifts to first base. By pretty much any projection you use, both are expected to be roughly league average hitters – CHONE expects a .335 wOBA from Tejada and a .324 wOBA from Atkins. Given that both are adjusting to new defensive positions and on the wrong side of thirty, forecasting their defensive value is a bit tricky, though I wouldn’t expect either to be particularly good at their new spot.
Tejada is probably a league average player while Atkins is a bit below that. Overall, the production that the duo will offer the Orioles should be around +3 wins. Given that the market is paying about $3.5M per win on one year deals, Baltimore paid almost exactly what you’d expect. They didn’t overpay, but these weren’t bargains either.
On the pitching side of things, they inherited $9 million of Kevin Millwood‘s contract, then gave Mike Gonzalez $6 million per year for both 2010 and 2011 and surrendered their second round pick for the right to do so. Millwood, like Tejada, is a decent bet to be a durable, league average-ish player for the next year, while Gonzalez will offer value out of the bullpen, though my position on relievers being less valuable than the market believes is well known. Again, you’d expect about +3 wins of value from the pair this year, but given the higher acquisition cost, Baltimore overpaid on both of these guys.
But, beyond just the dollars per win stuff, there’s the real head-scratching part of all this. The Orioles added about +5 to +6 wins to their roster for 2010, but that’s not a big enough improvement to make waves in a tough AL East, and only one of the players – the relief pitcher, no less – is under contract beyond this season.
They improved their team’s chances of being decent this year, but have done nothing to improve the team’s future. There was no multi-year deal for an undervalued position player (say, Adrian Beltre), who would provide value both in 2010 and beyond. The deals that were made were handed to a couple of 35-year-olds, a 31-year-old reliever, and a 30-year-old.
There’s just very little upside in any of these deals. Even in a best case scenario, Tejada and Millwood continue to be above average players, make the team good enough to fight the Rays for third place in the AL East, and then file for free agency again next year. Or, I guess, you could hope to trade them at the deadline for a prospect if they’re playing well, but then that raises the question of why the team didn’t just take the $15 million they gave those two and plow it into the draft and international free agents in the first place.
This just isn’t the off-season that I thought the Orioles had in them. This is a safe, low risk, low upside winter that doesn’t really change the fate of the franchise much at all. They got a little bit better for next year, but lost an opportunity to really help the 2011/2012 teams that could actually be quite good.
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Nevermind,
This has been a common sentiment about the O’s seasons. Unfortunately, there simply weren’t many options available to them, and many people have lamented the offseason without offering their own suggestions.
Adrian Beltre did not want to play here. Giving Chone Figgins a 40 million dollar contract when Josh Bell is nearly ready would have been more than foolish. The corner infield market besides those two was essentially bare. The two premier offensive free agents were Holliday and Bay, both of whom received huge contracts to play positions that the Orioles are set in for the forseeable future (Markakis, Jones, Reimold, Pie, Scott).
The pitching market offered little in the way of upside as well. Lackey wasn’t getting 85 million from the O’s, and after that there is little more than high upside injury risks (and they are still one of the favorites to land Bedard).
I understand that their offseason was underwhelming, but what could they have done with what was available?? I just don’t see much that realistically could have been done. I usually like your analysis, Dave, but this piece was lacking IMO.
Right…I often get the sense that most observers — both fans and nonfans — criticize the orioles almost as a reflex, without actually thinking about the context. I’m certainly not going to argue that they had a great offseason, but it was decent. MacPhail is counting on the young players to grow and improve, and that should be seen as a good thing. I also think that most observers have an action bias — making moves, any moves, is better than doing nothing. But doing nothing and being patient is sometimes a good strategy, and making a lot of moves just to be active can be a very bad strategy (Beane at times).
Free Agency isn’t the only way to build teams. The O’s have some pretty valuable trading chips, Luke Scott coming off a career year foremost among them. I’m pretty sure Beltre would have come to Baltimore on a multi-year deal given the $ he settled for from Boston. 3 years, $20 million would have been a huge improvement over the deal Beltre ended up signing. Even if they had to go up to $23-24 million to convince Beltre to give up on the idea of re-establishing his value with a breakout season for a contending team, can you really say that money would have been worse spent than the $15 million they’ll be paying Gonzalez + Millwood this year?
I think the real frustration comes from the fact that this offseason, which cannot be described as anything other than thoroughly mediocre, comes on the heels of a couple of really good ones by Macphail and co. An exec whose last couple seasons made some think he was on par with the Friedmans and Zduriencik’s of the world turned in an offseason more reminiscent of the kind Allard Baird used to put together in Kansas City: safe, low-reward picks that will keep the team above 70 wins, but that will do nothing to give it a shot at contention.
I don’t think Scott has much trade value. I’d like to see him traded (with Reimold used as DH and Pie in LF), but I just don’t think there’s much of a market out there.
And I don’t understand signing Beltre for multiple years with Bell knocking on the door.
“I’m pretty sure Beltre would have come to Baltimore on a multi-year deal given the $ he settled for from Boston.”
That’s patently untrue. The Boston Globe specifically said that Beltre rejected at least one multi-year deal with significantly more guaranteed money in order for the chance to play with the Red Sox. In fact, Scott Boras specifically said he was looking for this kind of deal – 1 year with a contending team – in order to build Beltre’s value for one last multi-year deal after this season, hopefully a more lucrative deal (and for a better team) than he would have received this season.
source: http://www.bostonherald.com/blogs/sports/red_sox/index.php/2010/01/04/beltre-turned-down-more-money-to-play-for-sox/
quote: “Beltre turned down more money from at least two teams – he had a four-year offer early in free agency and then a three-year deal for roughly the same annual value as the deal the Red Sox offered – but he chose Boston with an eye on having a big year for a contender and then hitting the market again next year.”
They didn’t surrender their first round pick for Gonzalez. It’s protected.
I think the Orioles had a decent offseason. I like the Millwood, Gonzalez, and tejada deals. The only real headscratcher is Atkins. Not sure why they bothered with him when they could have just gone with Luke Scott or signed a guy like Johnson or LaRoche.
But, overall, MacPhail wanted to make the 2010 team to be fairly respectable without blocking any prospects or committing a lot of money. I think he mostly accomplished that. Who should they have signed? I’m guessing they didn’t want Beltre for a multiyear deal because they don’t want to block Bell. I guess the best option would have been Lackey, but who knows how much they would have had to spend to get him to come to baltimore.
The O’s have a bright future but no amount of upgrades from this class of free agents was going to get them north of 90 wins and into Wild Card contention. They could have gone with a bottom dollar approach, let the youth suffer through a 90 loss season and pocket some money. Instead it appears they chose to spend a not unreasonable amount of money to make an effort to be respectable in 2010. See to it that you aren’t subjecting the young guys to a miserable campaign, field a quasi competetive team and keep your resources available to you in the upcoming years when the picture becomes more defined. I can’t say I’d necessarally take this approach, but I’m not certain it isn’t a prudent approach in a division with 2 juggernauts and another very competitive team.
Another advantage and some possible upside: guys on relatively salaries and 1-year deals could be very appealing come the trade deadline. Maybe Atkins or Tejada has managed a fairly productive season come July. Both guys have positional versatility and require no long term commitment, I could see a team like the Twins or the Cardinals interested in Tejada come the trade deadline.
I’m not sure if this is a) what they’re doing or b) a sound strategy, but it’s certainly a possibility. I mean, Neil Huntington is doing the same thing and almost admitting to it.
Isn’t it also possible that if Tejada puts up another nice “baseball card stat,” season that he could garner type A or B status next year if the O’s opt to offer him arbitration and he declines and signs elewhere? I’d imagine that might be an outside the box type of consideration but somewhat plausable on top of signing to use as a trade chip at the deadline no?
Also going to point out something Dave mentioned in the piece, that the O’s could have simply not spent this money on free agents to trade (if that were their intention in the first place), but instead sunk it into the draft or other means of adding prospects. Why couldn’t the O’s acquire prospects by trading one or any of these players (thus ridding themselves of paying said player or players second half salary) and still sink money into the the draft? Wouldn’t that be like the best of both worlds?
Consider the other side of the equation– fans of rebuilding teams hate seasons that are written off before a game is played. Cutting your payroll upsets fans and probably hurts attendance figures. While the Os are almost certainly not going to make the playoffs, marginal wins still matter to them– the owner/FO/players/fans’ pride and morale, attendance, etc. And who knows, with some major breakouts by their young arms they might be able to stick around in the race long enough to sell a few more tickets and get the hometown fans excited for something. They can trade their vets at the deadline if necessary and didn’t give up much besides a 2nd round pick (ie: payroll and lineup flexibility next year and beyond). As the commenters above noted, who should they have signed instead?
ps: the “spend on draft/int’l FAs” argument ignores the fact that the ML budget is separate from the scouting/FA budget of virtually every team. And who should they have signed? They were in the Chapman race, but Cincy blew the competition out of the water.
I’m pretty meh on the moves myself. I like brining in Millwood to some degree, because he’ll eat innings and keep the bullpen from getting taxed. Considering the ups and downs Matusz, Tillman and the other young pitchers will have, just getting someone capable of munching innings like Guthrie should prove valuable in that sense.
The Gonzalez deal seemed foolish to me. With the glut of young arms the O’s have, and the fact that some will need to move to the pen, it would seem that they should have held tight with Jim Johnson, or opted for a cheaper alternative (or cheaper competition) in Kiko Calero or Octavio Dotel. While Dotel’s fly ball tendencies (and thus HR’s that come with them) would have been maddening, he would have been a cheaper holdover alternative until an in house player took the reigns.
Signing one of Tejada/Atkins would seem to make sense, but both seems a bit repetitive to me. I’d have just assumed see them keep Atkins at 3B and play Michael Aubrey at 1B. It just seems like the O’s are using Atkins/Tejada as place holders this year for Bell/Snyder, but Aubrey seemingly could have served the same purpose I believe, and allowed them to save serious cash.
I do believe it would be in the O’s best interest to sign Bedard if they can, namely to a two year (or one year with club option, and most definitely a buyout to offset the club holding the option) deal, or perhaps Sheets. While I mentioned the glut of young starters on the way, Bedard/Sheets hold ace potential, and could seemingly be had at a possible bargain (incentive laden contract), but the only way that bargain is of value to the O’s is if the deal goes beyond this year IMO.
Anyways, good piece, a lot to think about.
As far as the closer goes, last year the O’s had Sherrill as the most effective of the bunch of him, Johnson, and Ray. JJ had a stunning 08 but regressed badly in 09. Sherrill was of course traded for Bell, and Ray was traded for Millwood.
MacPhail stated that a closer is a necessity, even on a rebuilding team, because a team needs to hold on to the leads that they get. I agree to some extent; there’s no need to go out and spend to get a top tier guy, since you’re not going to be giving him a lot of work.
I can’t explain the Tejada move, esp at that price, but Atkins is a good LRHR signing, and I think Crede would have been as well, but Tejada provides more offense, which is something you can’t have too much of in the AL East. Just the thought of Crede and Atkins at the corners upset a lot of people who were looking for 30 HR guys.
MacPhail has also said that this is the year that Trembley will be judged on his W-L record, so he’s providing him with a team that can win some games while still in rebuild mode. I’m sure the plan is to evaluate trade possibilities at the ASB and try to get some more prospects.
This could be an example of what it’s like to be a have not in the AL East. It seems to me that in the Central or the West, or any NL division, they O’s could have said, “Hey, maybe if our guys all hit this year, we’ve got a chance!” But instead, they have to say, “Well, it probably ain’t gonna be this year, so we’ll just have to put all our eggs in one basket for 2011 and 2012.” There was no series of moves that would have made the O’s favored to finish *second* in the division. So they just have to wait.
For Orioles, the best move is indeed no move at all. Tanking your team for a high draft position is what Orioles should do, but there is always the human component in business. What Orioles has done was building confidence and team loyalty in their youths — it is just not fun to go through a 90+ losses rookie season. BoSox prospects like Pedroia and Youkilis gave their team a friendly deal because they love winning and BoSox won it all with them.
The Orioles will likely win around 76-77 games in 2010. They are a long ways off from catching the Rays, Red Sox and Yankees. They have some great young players, but unfortunately play in a baseball’s most difficult division, one which will likely have a wild-card winner with 95 wins. Even the 3rd best team (the Rays) are well positioned for the next year or two. Tough sledding ahead for the Orioles.
vr, Xei
It largely depends on how quickly guys like Jones, Wieters, Reimold, Matusz, Tillman, Bergeson and Pie progress. As well as Markakis bouncing back a bit.
It is not completely out of this world that Jones and Wieters could completely blow up (in the good way ;^) ) and the O’s offense becomes a force.
Matusz lookd pretty good at the end of last year. Tillman showed flashes but was pretty shaky. Bergeson was incredible last year but not many expect him to duplicate. Thing is they can’t be completely written off. IMHO.
What you’re saying is that every player would have to essentially play to their ceiling this year to make a run, which is a very unlikely scenario considering the inexperience of most of their SPs. Tillman and Matusz, while promising, have only 100 total career IPs between the two of them. The O’s certainly can’t be written off, but MacPhail is right to be gunning for a run in 2011-12, and respectability in 2010.
I think we are in agreement. I certainly do not expect all of these guys to perform to their ceilings. But I would think there is a good chance that they all may improve – particularly the offensive players mentioned.
The pitching is the huge question mark.
We are in agreement. I think I was just saying what you left unsaid. In a perfect scenario, the Orioles might be good enough to compete with the second place team in the AL East. However, there’s no chance that that scenario will occur; therefore, the Orioles were smart not to invest in a run in 2010, but rather wait until they will be a better and more experienced team in 2011 and 2012.
“They improved their team’s chances of being decent this year, but have done nothing to improve the team’s future.”
But by signing guys to short-term deals, they haven’t done anything that would block prospects or harm them in 2011 or beyond, either. Why would they go after Beltre when they have a touted prospect like Bell at 3B? (When is he projected to be ready?)
Bell could be up later this year. However, Tejada rarely misses time, so the O’s may just allow Bell to stay in Norfolk until September and, possibly hand the position to him in 11.
Yeah, I don’t think Dave’s point was that the offseason was awful or crippling or anything like that. It’s just that with Macphail’s solid track record, he expected more from the O’s offseason than acquiring a handful of veterans for roughly what they’re worth on the open market.
Wins equal more attendance. Greater attendance means more revenue and thus a greater ability to invest in the team in the next few years as their core improves.
Sure, they could have easily said FU to their fanbase and their attendance would reflect that. Also, their owner doesn’t want to be Jeffrey Loria and simply bank on revenue sharing while his team plays in front of “crowds” of 10K every night.
There’s something to be said for putting a respectable team on the field…especially if and when it doesn’t hamstring you long-term. They’re attempting that and I respect the effort.
Not entering into long risky contracts is the reason the O’s have the aforementioned flexibility. Going hard after Lackey just because he’s the best pitcher available is a good way to get stuck with a bad contract. The guy has been on the DL to start the last two seasons. It’s counterintuitive to criticize the O’s for not going after that kind of contract while simultaneously complimenting them for not suffering through one now.
Also, before we call the money they spent poor allocation of funds, lets wait and see how they spend on the draft. If they’re cheap, then I will agree all of that money should have gone towards the draft.
Nobody suggested they go and get Lackey. What would have been nice would have been acquiring a couple of guys with upside – kind of like how they acquired Pie for pennies last offseason. There are plenty of guys floating around waiting for the opportunity to play full-time, and the O’s weren’t able to acquire anyone who makes you think “hm. that acquisition could really pay off way above and beyond what they gave up.”
The Orioles have to be creative to give themselves a shot at contending in the AL East. There was nothing at all creative about this offseason.
“There are plenty of guys floating around waiting for the opportunity to play full-time, and the O’s weren’t able to acquire anyone who makes you think “hm. that acquisition could really pay off way above and beyond what they gave up.””
like who?
Plenty of guys. JJ Hardy was a good buy-low candidate. The Mariners got Milton Bradley by trading an albatross contract who will provide negative value (I know the O’s don’t need Bradley). The Red Sox got Jeremy Hermida for spare parts. Jake Fox stands out as a guy who could have filled one of the Orioles’ needs for pennies and who had some offensive upside. The A’s got him for very little in trade.
The whole point of getting creative is making non-obvious moves that could pay off. Nobody talked about Franklin Gutierrez before Zduriencik made him the key return in the Putz deal, and it was the single best acquisition of the ’09 offseason. Macphail has shown the ability to make those kinds of moves in the past. Nothing he did this offseason suggested that finding undervalued assets was a priority. His moves suggest that he’s content to watch his core develop and complement them with role players, when he should have been looking for guys who could potentially add to that core.
Ultimately I don’t know which move of this offseason will turn out to be the equivalent of the Ms’ ’09 Gutierrez acquisition or the ’07 Carlos Pena acquisition. I do, however, know that it won’t be any of the moves the Orioles made this offseason.
okay. you mention JJ Hardy, and yes that would have the potential to be a good long term move. Perhaps the O’s went after him and decided not to give up Felix Pie for him. We know what the Twins had to give up but we don’t know what the Brewers would have wanted from the O’s.
Then you mention Milton Bradley and say “I know the O’s don’t need Bradley”. So why mention him at all? Ditto Hermida. The O’s have 4 young and talented outfielders right now. Fox, perhaps, but again, the O’s are very high on Josh Bell.
I think the O’s still view this season as a chance to evaluate what they’ve got, including guys like Bell and Brandon Snyder in Norfolk.
Yes, McPhail needs to get the SS of the future into the organization and Bell and Snyder, espeically Snyder IMHO, are anything close to sure things.
So, ultimately, no the O’s did not make a Gutierrez or Pena acquisition this offseason (it is HIGHLY unlikely that Atkins turns his career around like Pena did in TB) but they already have a young offensive core of Markakis, Jones, Reimold and Wieters, so they are on the right track. The O’s will be just as flush with cash next offseason as they were this offseason but they will also have a much greater idea of what they truly need to add to the roster.
“Plenty of guys. JJ Hardy was a good buy-low candidate. The Mariners got Milton Bradley by trading an albatross contract who will provide negative value (I know the O’s don’t need Bradley). The Red Sox got Jeremy Hermida for spare parts. Jake Fox stands out as a guy who could have filled one of the Orioles’ needs for pennies and who had some offensive upside. The A’s got him for very little in trade.”
Hardy almost certainly would have cost Pie. I wouldn’t make that deal and I’m glad MacPhail didn’t. I don’t understand why you mentioned Bradley. Hermida and Fox don’t have a lot of value to the Orioles. I suppose Kotchman would have been an ok pickup, but I can’t imagine he’s ever going to amount to anything.
Overall, this criticism is pretty vacuous. It would have been nice if MacPhail had made a couple of Pie-like deals this offseason, but since we have no idea what was available, this kind of speculation is somewhat pointless.
Also, there’s a fundamental contradiction in Dave’s (and your) criticism. If you think MacPhail has a solid track record and expected him to make some creative moves, what makes you think he passed up similar moves this offseason?
I’m no baseball insider. Be interesting to know what impact veterans actually have on a younger team like Baltimore. You hear about Andrus benefiting from Omar and such. Are the guys they picked up known to be good clubhouse types?
I agree with those who think they signed some “names” to potentially boost interest, season ticket sales, while not clogging the system for 2011 and beyond.
Would be interested to know who the money could have been spent on more wisely, in your estimation.
Tejada was never seen as a good clubhouse type in his last role through Baltimore. An Orioles’ employee was quoted anonymously a couple years ago justifying the overpay of Melvin Mora because of the need to sign someone who could “babysit” Tejada.
Yet Markakis and Roberts and anyone who has ever played with Tejada refers to him as one of, if not the greatest, teammate you could have.
Here are a couple of analyses (including mine, albeit before the Tejada signing) that frankly are more thorough and understand the economic realities. You’re talking placeholders, not potentially terrible longterm contracts.While I agree Beltre would have been interesting–more for defensive purposes, he was a tough sell.
Check the ESPN and FantasyGameday links for the full response.
http://www.fantasygameday.net/2009/12/30/the-xs-and-os-of-the-os-offseason/
Again, Dave never argued for breaking the bank. His problem is the utter lack of upside in these stop-gap moves from a front office that’s done better in the past.
Can we conclusively say that Garrett Atkins has no upside? People have been throwing Carlos Pena around as an example of a good reclamation project. I think Pena’s turn-around was just as unlikely as Atkins performing this year like he did three years ago, but that’s not to say it’s impossible.
Not really. I was screaming on several forums for my team (the Mariners) to acquire Pena. The last month he’d played in the majors with the Tigers after losing time to Chris Shelton he’d been great at the plate. Pena’s problem was that nobody would give him playing time in what should have been his peak offensive years. He was a 29-year-old who barely played the previous two seasons when the Rays scooped him up. Atkins has been a full-time player for the last 5 seasons, is on the wrong side of 30, and has suffered a major decline. He’s also awful at defense. Awful. The situations are very different.
The situations aren’t the same.
Ha. That’s why you should never post while in a rush. “The situations are very different. The situations aren’t the same.” Whups.
Wow…a Friendly Toast reference. I don’t know about the one in Cambridge, but the Portsmouth Toast is overrated, overpriced diner food with terrible service. I guess if you feel like the pleasure of looking at funky/kitschy stuff on the ceiling is worth an extra $5-10 per meal, then it’s ok (I recommend the Orleans Fries).
As for the O’s, I have to agree with the sentiment that this off-season is a whole lot of nothing special. I initially thought “why bother?” when I heard about the Millwood deal, but if this means not giving Jason Berken 24 starts it might be worth $9 million. If they can sign Bedard for a decent price the two of them are a pretty nice balance of risk and reward.
Everyone else pretty much covered the holes in this article. A fine example of weak outside analysis thanks to misevaluation of the Orioles’ short-term and long term goals.
What “key pieces” were they going to add?
What Teixeira-like first base options were there this year?
What marquis position players WERE available? Outfielders. O’s have a surplus.
You point out the O’s spent $31M through 2011 for 4 over-30 players, and in the same breath lament on their failure to acquire Beltre? Last I checked, he was over 30 himself and would have required $25-30M to get him to Baltimore.
Plus, why would they sign Beltre to a multi-year deal with one of the best 3B prospects in Bell only a year away?
The Orioles needed short term commitments for their corner IF, rotation, and BP because of the youth on the way. No surprise–that’s what they did.
You’re right when you say they haven’t changed the fate of the franchise. It STILL has a tremendous ceiling with its elite young core, and will have financial flexibility next offseason as well. This simply wasn’t the offseason to make those key moves, because the market of “key pieces” simply wasn’t there. As well documented, next offseason those pieces ARE available. And that’s when those acquisitions will be made if need be.
Where did you see Dave call for the O’s to spend on a “marquis” (haha) player?
Pretty sure Mr. Grissom (who would turn 43 a couple weeks after opening day) would love to strap on the cleats for a couple of mil, Then again, he might weigh 300 pounds, as he hasn’t played since 2005. Doubt it, though, he seemed like a lifetime athlete.
That was awesomeness, a marquee post.
I knew I was spelling that one wrong. JH win.
Dave writes, “this appeared to be a perfect opportunity for the Orioles to add some key pieces that could grow with the core already in place.”
A “key piece that could grow with the core” sounds a lot like an above average player with a long term deal attached. However, he didn’t define the term. So we use our best judgement. IMO, that’s a premier player.
The one example he makes is Adrian Beltre. Dave describes him as an undervalued position player. I don’t see that though.
Beltre would have required a long term deal to come to Baltimore. Perhaps $30M/3yr knowing Boras. For a player who will be 31 this year, put of a .305 wOBA and .114 ISO last year, and has seen his offense decline precipitously the last 2 years, I would not have had much interested in him either.
While I’m not pinching my cheeks with joy over the players the O’s did acquired, they were acquired for a reason. I think that reason is time for growth. The O’s rotation has the worst FIP in MLB last year, and a middle-of-the-road wOBA. I think that means they need some more time to mature.
The article doesn’t provide enough evidence of reasonable alternatives within the market to support the criticism it levels.
The new signings are place holders. No long term franchise killer deals were made. They’re filling in the blanks with serviceable major leaguers until they can find better long term solutions. It’s not a bad strategy to improve your team in the present, as long as you aren’t harming your future. That is if you want your fans to pay money to see you.
Interesting. I think this is a complete mis-read of the O’s winter, and of the options they had available. As an Orioles fan, I have no problem with what they’ve done. This is what teams do when they’re in a holding pattern–waiting on young talent to develop and the right FA’s to come along. The whole point was to add a few wins w/o encumbering themselves w/ bad deals. Mission accomplished.
No question Balt has $$ to spend, but what FA was worth spending it on? By waiting a year to invest, not only do you get a better FA crop, but you have a better idea of how much pitching depth you have to move, how Josh Bell might play at 3b, etc. Right now the O’s have a lot of questions still to be answered.
Plus they had nothing to trade. Luke Scott the biggest chip, which isn’t saying much. The market was flush with LaRoches and Huffs and Kotchmans, et al. Ryan Garko and Hank Blalock are still unemployed. Scott wouldn’t have garnered even a Hermida-type haul.
So I’ll take it. Of course, if they pull a Bonifay and sign Atkins to a 4-year deal in June, I might change my mind. But for now, this is what they should be doing. Add a few wins, figure out what pieces are in place, and hit the market hard next winter.
Typical low self-esteem comment from an Orioles fan, so used to losing that you dont know what it feels like to have any hope. It is shameful, what the proud history of the Orioles has become. It is always “hitting the market hard this winter” so this is what it feels like to be a Detroit Lions fan.
Every move except for the obvious need of bringing in a quality closer was completely in line with the Orioles predictable do nothing approach. Josh Bell?? Look at his minor league numbers, he is a 20-80 max, with minimal plate discipline.
Announcing that Tejada was coming back during the Orioles Fan Fest is nothing more than a ploy to get people to buy some tickets – which by the way will be going up this season as the Orioles battle to do over 1.5 million in attendance – they can always thank – the 18 games against the Sox, Yanks and Phils for getting them close.
I will take anyone’s bet that the Orioles will drop 90 games in 2010 – is there a man among you to take this action?
This offseason for the Os was fairly weak although understandable. They strted out looking for a veteran starting pitcher but didn’t want the risk of Lackey (especially since Camden does inflate HRs) at the cost of seriously overpaying for him. Millwood was a decent addition whose main benefit is allowing their pitching prospects some time before they are deployed. The Os have been very conservative on that front after watching their last wave of heralded prospects turn into busts.
As others have pointed out the Os have a logjam in the outfield with five starting outfielders but only three available spots. Luke Scott is a slightly above average defender in left but was moved to DH because of the logjam, leaving Felix Pie as a fourth outfielder even though he could be better than Adam Jones.
The problem with both first and third is that they have prospects about half a year away. Atkins is definitely an upside gamble although I think most Os fans are pissed that he won’t be playing third. He will be somewhat better defensively at his minor league position but probably doesn’t have the bat to carry it. Tejada is a nice pickup, who unlike Crede won’t require another third baseman around as insurance. Both should definitely be trade bait although Tejada could stay around while Josh Bell stays in Norfolk developing.
Gonzalez is probably an addition with an eye to competing in 2011 while allowing Andy to consider trading him if warranted
Atkins really makes no sense as we have Michael Aubrey as well as Dusty Hughes either of whom could breakout for the league minimum. We also have Ty Wigginton who hopefully is trade bait right now.
The Os overspent because they had money to spend. Unfortunately since no premier free agents want to play in Baltimore they would have to overspend. It was disappointing but at the very least there will be no albatross hanging around our neck. The team should improve to close to .500 while being ready to reload if needed next year on free agents.
Hopefully some of the extra money could be moved into the draft and scouting although I feel that if the Orioles really want somebody they feel comfortable going over their budget. They may very well need to hire better coaches to help develop their players as well as better coaches
Rushing a prospect is never a good idea. If they didn’t feel Josh Bell was ready, then it made sense to add a relatively cheap veteran (Tejada). Unless they thought Luke Scott would be serviceable as a first baseman, which they must not have, Atkins is fine. Let’s not forget that a team can’t just give up on the season because it feels it needs another year or two to develop. Attendance and fan interest as a whole plays a major hand in where the team heads in the next few seasons, so I think it may have been worth spending a few bucks to keep some respectability and maybe sell a few t-shirts.
I tend to agree that the haul is underwhelming. I really thought Russ Branyan would’ve been a good target for them instead of Atkins.
However, one thing that MacPhail might be doing with this off-season is playing a little bit for the future – by putting a potentially .500+ team on the park, they should at least draw some decent attendances at Camden Yards, and then, at the end of 2010, they have three players (Millwood, Atkins, Tejada) who have a reasonable chance of being (at least) Type B free agents, with which they can consider boosting the farm a little bit. Alternatively, you can always trade 2 months of garbage like that to Brian Sabean at the deadline for, I dunno, Tim Alderson.
There’s also the question of how many players would want to sign for a team like the Orioles that, realistically, have a close-to-zero chance of contending in 2010. I’m pretty sure guys like Beltre (who wanted to play for the Sox anyhow) and maybe the likes of, I dunno, John Smoltz (who might’ve been a nice high risk-reward pickup but who probably wants to be in a pennant race) were not available to the Orioles for any sensible price.
Whatever happened to a writer doing some research before an article? If he would have, he would have noticed that McPhail has the tricky task of bringing in quality short term 1st and 3rd basemen to be competitive but also clear the way for Josh Bell and Brandon Snyder. Once they do become somewhat competitive it will also signal to prized free agents like Holladay and Texiera in recent years the team may only be one player away since the pitching staff is stacked with young talent. Keep in mind the Orioles were 5th in the American League in team batting average but only 10th in runs and that was with Huff and Mora having bad years at 1st and 3rd and their lone all star Adam Jones missing considerable time to injury. So the major problem was the pitching. They had no closer and almost every pitcher in the rotation made their major league debut. Notice how many games the Orioles scored 6+ runs and still lost last year. If Atkins or Tejada have decent years, look for McPhail to cash in again at the tradeline and make a couple more pennant chasers trade away their prized prospects for an overpayed, over the hill injury prone, or short-term contract player. See Erik Bedard, Tejada, Sherrill, and Huff. Expect a Tampa Bay Ray turnaround in the 2010 or 2011.
My personal feeling, without going into any real statistical detail, is that the youth movement in Baltimore is slightly over-rated. I was really surprised to see how (relatively) poor Jones and Markakis were last season for two guys who’re considered the young stars of the franchise, especially given that neither of them really have a great deal of projection left, in my opinion (maybe Jones has a little but I remain to be convinced by his glove in CF).
There’s a lot of talented pitching in the minors, no doubt, but I’d say there’s only maybe 2 guys (Matusz and Tillman, though I like Arrieta too) who profile as top-of-the-rotation arms on the way and a handful of average starters. You kind of have to hope that nearly all those guys pan out, and, the way prospects go, you’d probably expect at least one of them not to reach their ceiling.
I suppose with Bell, Snyder and Future Hall of Fame Catcher on the field they’ve got a great chance to be competitive in about 2 years, but I think they’ll probably still need to add more than one major piece from outside the org to compete in what will still be an uber-tough division. Thankfully, they’ll probably have the cash to do that.
Hey Dave, we have something in common.
The Friendly Toast is the closest we ever got to MIT.
Not a great analysis, unfortunately. You have to grade what was done against what was possible. Beltre turned down multi-year offers to take a one year deal with the Red Sox, for example.
What is the offseason you had in mind “that DOES really change the fate of the franchise … and take an opportunity to really help the 2011/2012 teams.”?
I think he’s keen on a few more high risk, high upside pick-ups (say, Ben Sheets and John Smoltz instead of Gonzalez and Millwood, Russell Branyan and maybe Troy Glaus instead of Atkins and Tejada; all four guys they’ve signed are a good bet to be 1-2 WAR players at least, but the four other possibles could all be worth nothing (due to injury) but have the potential to put up 4+ WAR seasons if they’re healthy and productive) in order to try and compete if everyone stays healthy. I tend to agree, though, that he’s kinda over-rating their chance to be in any sort of race for the post-season. They’re about average or slightly above in most respects, which probably ends up projecting them for a high-70s, low-80s win total in that division, but to be even in the playoff conversation in the AL East I’m guessing 90+ wins is going to be required.
I think even WITH some high-upside gambles paying off , and a pretty perfect health record, there’s still too much ground to make up on the Yanks, Sox and Rays.
Wasn’t Ben Sheets asking for $10M + incentives? That’s not exactly pocket change for a guy who has yet to prove he’s healthy enough for a full season of pitching. http://danny-knobler.blogs.cbssports.com/mcc/blogs/entry/8590096/19783010
Did you happen to look at Branyan down the stretch? Just awful in July & August. He didn’t even play in Sept because of his back. Not exactly someone you can count on in your line-up come April. http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?n1=branyru01&year=&t=b
Didn’t Smoltz get lit up in the AL East? http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/smoltjo01.shtml
Can Troy Glaus even swing a bat? He’s still dealing with shoulder and back problems. That’s an awful lot of risk to assume for an everyday player.
You are right about one thing, even if these players miraculously stayed healthy and performed to their potential, the O’s still wouldn’t contend in the AL East.
Why do I get the feeling you would be sharply criticizing the O’s if they did enter into any long-term deals? I think the O’s have had a nice offseason. There’s something to be said for spending a little money to bring a winning atmosphere to the club and letting the kids know that they don’t have to cower in the face of the AL East big brothers. The new stats crowd likes to pretend that teams can just pour money in to the draft and farm systems every year and then suddenly spring up and try to win when it wants to. Rays ’08 aside, that’s not usually the way it works.
This year they have a chance to compete with the big boys (at least on a game to game basis) while still maintaining their flexibility for the future and giving the home fans something to root for.
The Orioles were in the odd position of needing to fill both corner slots for 2010 with top prospects at those positions likely to be ready by ’11. Hence a deal for a long term solution at first or third did not really make sense. That is something number crunchng can not account for.
I think the O’s had a very good offseason. When you look at what Holliday and Lackey went for in the free agency market the O’s would have been stupid for going above those contracts. Millwood and Gonzalez were both excellent pickups. Neither Atkins nor Tejada will kill the franchise. By the way Josh Bell had a .376 OBP with 61 walks so I think his plate discipline is above average. Every prospect is a gamble but he is good enough that you be less than smart to block him from the bigs with a Beltre like contract. The real key this season is Bergeson, Tillman, Matsuz, and Arrieta. We need two or three of these guys to be the real deal if we are going to have any shot in AL East. If they can that will also allow the O’s to trade for a big 1B bat (AGon, Fielder, Pena) either at the trading deadline or next offseason.
I can’t say I agree with the post, but I almost decided not to post a comment.
For one, Tejada is not an “average” player- he was an All-Star for the past two seasons and is a guaranteed .300 hitter with a little bit of power left. Atkins, if he can play like he did in 2008 (before the coaching staff tried to change his approach) he will be All-Star calibur himself. Kevin Millwood was an ace in Texas, and if he can keep it in the yard there he should be fine in Baltimore. Gonzalez is some nice value in the bullpen. Considering the awful free agent class this year, I think they did a great job.
The Orioles needed stopgaps at 1st, 3rd, and in their starting rotation while still trying to improve. Tejada will be a lot better than Melvin Mora, Atkins can’t be any worse than Aubrey Huff, the Millwood will make Baltimore more flexible in using its young pitchers. They had no reliable starters last year, and the presence of one can make a huge impact on the whole staff.
Oh, and Lackey, Figgins, and other free agents had just about told the O’s they had no interest going there, so they were off the table from the start.
I don’t see how this group only nets 6 more wins, especially when you are looking at young talent that will invariably improve and provide additional wins for the club. Even in the AL East this team should hover around .500 this season.
I like the comments from your last paragraph and I think it makes a good point. The O’s went 64-98 last season. While their success this year will be predicated on the performance of the rotation, I agree this team is capable of playing .500 ball, even with some bumps in the road. So, potentially that’s a 17-win increase over the previous year. The stats somehow don’t tell the whole story.
Math fail. *16-win increase.