The Worst Pitches of 2011
Our braintrust is hard at work identifying the game’s best pitches for all of your February needs. Now it’s time to uncover some of the worst pitches in the game — with as little snark as possible. Because even the worst pitch in the big leagues is way, way better than most of us can manage. And if a pitcher owns a pitch on this list, they must be doing something else right in order to remain in the big leagues. Either that, or they’re not long for the bigs.
At least identifying poor pitches can be a useful and enjoyable exercise. And you’re supposed to do thirty minutes of that every day, so that’s an extra benefit for us.
Fastball
Kyle Lohse
PITCHf/x: 3.6%, 88.9 mph, -7.1 H-move, 9.4 V-move
Results: 0% SwStrk, 64.4% Strk, -3.2 wFB, -0.2 FB/C
Four-seam fastballs are not usually about whiffs. And obviously there’s some sort of classification thing going on with his sinker and his fastball — he probably didn’t just drop his fastball usage down to under four percent last year. He’s probably been using his sinker like other pitchers use their fastballs for a while now. But his lack of usage and whiffs still does mean something. (It means he knows that fastball isn’t very good.) Sure, it gets an okay strike rate, but in our PITCHf/x database he didn’t get a single whiff on the pitch (n=101). Even if the fastball isn’t usually about ground balls either, Lohse only got grounders on 26% of his four-seamers. To make matters worse, the Cardinals starter only got ground balls on 41% of his sinkers — and barely any whiffs either. Back to the four-seamer — know that if you’re seeing it, be ready to swing because you’ll make contact and that contact won’t burn worms. John Lackey had a two-seamer that didn’t get a single whiff (n=68), so he deserves an ‘honorable’ mention.
Video: How are you going to get video of a bad pitch? By searching for ‘home run, Kyle Lohse, fastball.’ Look at this nice, straight, 81 MPH meatball served up to Laynce Nix in 2009.
Slider
Ryan Vogelsong
PITCHf/x: 15.8%, 87.7 mph, 0.5 H-move, 6.3 V-move
Results: 5.4% SwStrk, 67.7% Strk, -9.5 wSL, -2.04 SL/C
Drew Pomeranz actually threw 41 sliders this year without garnering a single whiff, but that’s not a huge sample size. Ryan Vogelsong threw more than ten times as many sliders (n=464) and only got 25 whiffs for his trouble. Even if the pitch is a cutter, as some might call it, it’s pretty terrible. ‘Normal’ sliders get whiffs on 14.9% of pitches on average, and cutters about 10.1%. Oh, and both pitches get grounders over 44% of the time. Vogelsong only induced ground balls 39.5% of the time with his version of the pitch. Sliders and cutters are notoriously hard to separate, though. If you want a pitch that you can be 100% sure is a slider and 100% sure is not a great pitch, take a look at Nelson Figueroa, who threw 199 slide pieces to get 11 whiffs and 16 ground balls (41%) last year.
Video: Even after opening this up to the less-than-excellent but better-than-worst sliders thrown by James Shields, Livan Hernandez, and Mike Pelfrey, MLB.com did not have video for us. So you’ll have to imagine a slider that doesn’t break much, has so-so velocity, and makes for tasty slugging. Like the one I’d throw if I could even throw one.
Changeup
Wade Davis
PITCHf/x: 6.8%, 78.6 mph, -3.2 H-move, 8.8 V-move
Results: .5% SwStrk, 50.2% Strk, -4.7 wCH, -2.32 CH/C
This time, it was Chris Resop who threw 38 changeups without getting a single whiff, but Wade Davis went to the same pitch 201 times to get one whiff according to our PitchF/x database, so his sample size was more ‘impressive.’ Alex Rios, that dude has some egg on his face for his April 20th whiff on this pitch, doesn’t he? The changeup is a pitch that is meant for whiffs (15.1% on average) and grounders (50%), and Davis failed terribly on the first. At least he gets ground balls on about half of the changeups that were put into play… but he didn’t have a good strike percentage on the taken changeups. Are 15 ground balls worth throwing 201 below-average changeups (and almost 100 non-strikes)? Maybe not. This changeup is not the reason Davis has struggled in the Major Leagues — it was always supposed to be behind his other pitches, after all — but it’s also not the reason he’s done well, either.
Video: You know why Alex Rios should feel even worse? Because, just two innings after he supplied Davis’ changeup whiff, Carlos Quentin did this to a Davis changeup. It’s a GIF, not a video, but you can see the pitch doesn’t break down enough, it’s a little too fast for a guy with a 92 MPH fastball, and that Quentin is not the slightest bit fooled. Yes, according to other systems there might have been as many as four whiffs on the changeup all year for Davis — that doesn’t change the Rios/Quentin same-game egg/face situation.
0
Laynce Nix was on the Nationals for all of 2011… so that video is not from 2011.
Yeah….this video was probably “awful Kyle Lohse 2010″ (fresh off of innovative surgery) rather than “mediocre Kyle Lohse 2011″
The point still stands that his fastball wasn’t very good.
Also, if this terribly vague and pseudo scientific trend continues…watch out for “Super Kyle Lohse 2012″…. (same as when Shredder came back as Super Shredder in the second movie and the turtles were like “Oh crap.”)
2009 even! so just a terrible terrible pitch.
http://www.joelefkowitz.com/hr_sm.php?x=0.431&y=2.796&pt=FF&r=HR
Lot of complaints about this piece. Factual inaccuracies, hyperbolic language…poor writing
You didn’t expect a bit of hyperbole in a piece titled, “THE WORST Pitches of 2011″?
Specifics and I’ll gladly fix em if I agree. Always looking to get better. If it’s about PF/x versus other classifications.. can’t help you. Walking a fine line here and we mostly agreed to use PF/x.
I don’t think even fresh off surgery Lohse threw an 81 MPH fastball. He does throw an awful lot of 81 MPH changeups though.
Geez, I thought it was the surgery thing, but why would I trust the MLB video tag is right.
It’s a fastball according PITCHfx: http://www.joelefkowitz.com/hr_sm.php?x=0.431&y=2.796&pt=FF&r=HR Doesn’t have the labels I guess, but the query was batter: Laynce Nix, pitcher: Kyle Lohse, month: June 2009, showing only HRs and swinging strikes.
“grounders over 44% of the time. Vogelsong only induced ground balls 39.5% of the time with his version of the pitch”
Is this difference statistically significant? My gut tells me no…
The 5% difference may not seem like much, but over a full season of throwing pitches, it is, especially since 44% is just average. It’s also worth mentioning that pitchers that have sliders (or cutters) worse than that just don’t throw them, or throw them nearly as often as Vogelsong.
“Nelson Figueroa, who threw 199 slide pieces to get 11 whiffs and 16 ground balls (41%) last year.”
16 of 199 is 41%? Am I just reading this incorrectly?
Matt, Figueroa threw 199 sliders, but 39 of them were put in play, hence 16 GBs if 41%.
FWIW, I enjoyed the whole series including this post.
it’s an 89mph fastball. he hits his spot. there are hundreds of FBs worse than this every year, let alone every three years.
It’s listed as a changeup in pitch f/x and the point wasn’t that that single pitch in the video was the worst. The point was that Wade Davis’ changeup is the worst, and it’s not particularly close.
Seriously, bossman? Belt high, down the middle is not hitting his spot. He wasn’t throwing BP to Nix in a home run derby.
To be fair, Rios was taking part in the festivities of 4/20
Cmon, Worst Eephus of 2011!
you’re joking but it’s kind of funny: why would you have a ‘worst eephus’ or ‘worst curveball’ even? The fastball, slider, change, you kind of have to throw, or at least try to throw. If you don’t have a knuckler, don’t throw it!
If there is a best eephus, there has to be a worst…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tkdl9zIJAxo
If you’re implying that Tadano has the worst eephus, linking to a highlight video might not be the best idea.
No, his is the best. Maybe by default.
Really surprised Phil Hughes’ fastball didn’t show up on this.
Actually, Alex Rios would probably show up on just about anybody’s worst pitch, of any kind, from 2011.
since when does drew pomeranz throw a slider?
There’s a reason it’s the worst.
How about any pitch that Mariners rookie Anthony Vasquez threw last year?
Matt, I Believe Whiff % is calculated on number of strikes thrown for a particular pitch type–not total of number pitches.
You can’t declare a pitch bad just based on the swinging strike rate. I also don’t see how you’re declaring Ryan Vogelsong’s slider as worst, since he didn’t throw a single slider in 2011 according to this site.