The Yankees Are Decisive in Victory and Defeat
The New York Yankees are 9-6 in one-run games this season. That within itself is not overly remarkable. Assume the Yankees’ .634 winning percentage as their true talent level – i.e. the level of which we would expect them to play over a stretch of time – and over 15 games you’d expect them to win between nine and 10 of those games. No, the percentage of 9-6 is nothing special, it’s the sum of 9-6 at this point in the season that is.
The San Diego Padres boast a Major League-best 19-12 road record. The White Sox aren’t far off with a record of 18-12. At the bottom of the pole, the Cubs’ 12-21 and Jays’ 12-19 records are the worst in the bigs. What’s so interesting about the Yankees record is that they’ve only encountered 15 one-run games. Every other team – every single one – has more than 20 one-run games so far.
It’s not like the Yankees are playing a schedule against a bunch of markedly inferior squads, either. Baseball Prospectus’ Third Order Wins adjust for strength of schedule and have the Yankees, Rays, and Red Sox all within a game of each other. After some early season thunderstorms and barnstorming alike, the Jays have faded but still have more Third Order wins than defeats. Expectedly, even Baltimore looks better when examined with strength of schedule in mind. New York is a strong squad heading for a playoff berth and potentially a division crown, but their sparse distribution of one run games doesn’t even match up with their best units in recent memory:
2009 – 103 W, 38 ORG
2004 – 101 W, 40 ORG
2003 – 101 W, 36 ORG
2002 – 103 W, 42 ORG
1998 – 114 W, 31 ORG
Expect more one-run games from the Yankees from here on out. If for no other reason than, well, they can’t really have fewer.
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In the second paragraph where you write “road record” you clearly mean “record in one-run games” — right?
I was just thinking the same thing during today’s game.
Once they opened it up late in the game so Mo wouldn’t come in, I was thinking that Mo hasn’t pitched that much this season. But I knew it was because they haven’t really had too many games where he was needed to pitch because it seems like when they win, they win big.
Going farther, it also seems like they score a lot late. So it may be a close game, but doesn’t finish a 1RG since the Yanks always seem to tack a run or more on late.
I should look this up rather than keeping thinking and assuming.
one run games fine. Check how many times the brewers have been hammered and hammered their opponents. Amazing.
Maybe I’m wrong in assuming this, but I should think playing in more one run games can’t hurt the yankees. They have the best closer, so when they are up 1 they will win 95% of the time, and should they been down one or two runs, the offense has the ability to turn those deficits into 1-runs leads.
Yeah, but don’t you worry about everyone not named Mo? Robertson has come on of late, but you can’t trust Joba (despite statistical success), and you don’t know what Chan Ho Park is gonna give. I worry about close games in those middle innings.
The Yanks will make the necessary moves. They’ve still got Melancon and Nova in the minors that they can call up to the bullpen if they need to. I’m not really all that worried.
Do the Yankees have a disproportionately high number of 2-3 run games?