The Yankees & the Playoffs
Remember when the American League East was supposed to be extremely close down to the wire? The Yankees sweep of the Red Sox coinciding with the Rays dropping two of three to the Mariners leaves New York up 6.5 on Boston and 8 on Tampa Bay with 51 games remaining. I’m not saying the divisional race is definitely over, but Yankee fans can probably begin taking out loans for playoff tickets.
Coolstandings has the Yankees divisional chances at 78% and their playoff odds have actually surpassed the Dodgers. Even if the Yankees play a little under .500 from this point forward and go 25-26, the Red Sox would have to play ~.600 ball and go 32-20 to win the division. The Rays would have to move a mountain and win 65% of their games to simply tie the Yankees. Anytime you have to bank on winning that many games in such a small time frame, you should probably start focusing on the wild card race .
If/when the Yankees win the division, expect the events of the past weekend to be fingered as the most important series of the season. The 13 inning game and Daniel Bard implosion instantly become Yankee folklore. A split leaves Boston within striking distance and a loss series puts Boston in passing position. Now the 12 games remaining against the Red Sox/Rays can be split without fear of losing the lead from a few bad games.
Obviously anything can happen over the last few weeks, but barring a few injuries or prolonged slumps, the Yankees are going to break new Yankee Stadium into the October activities right away.
25
It was a 15 inning game.
I don’t get such assumption making with this.
We all saw how one hot week for the Yanks and one cold week for the Sox propelled the Yankees into the division lead after trailing by 3 games after the All-Star Break, so why should we simply assume that at this point, the Yankees are “locks” to reach the playoffs when, very easily, they may go ice cold and concurrently, the Rays and/or Red Sox catch fire?
I’m not saying either will happen, but in this division and this league, the Yankees are far from playoff locks at this point. I definitely think the Yankees will make the playoffs at this point (tonight’s clunker aside), but to assume it with 50 games to go is jumping the gun, especially when you consider that two very good teams reside within their division. We’ve seen crazier things happen before. Remember the 07 Mets?
He is not assuming that the Yankees will win the division not matter what, just pointing out how unlikely it is for them to lose it, and illustrating that by showing what impact different respective records would have on the standings.
“I’m not saying the divisional race is definitely over, but Yankee fans can probably begin taking out loans for playoff tickets.”
is an entirely reasonable statement.
“but to assume it with 50 games to go is jumping the gun, especially when you consider that two very good teams reside within their division. We’ve seen crazier things happen before. Remember the 07 Mets?”
This is a misinterpretation of what RJ is saying. Of course crazier things can happen. You know why they are crazy? They happen extremely infrequently.
If that is indeed the case, then my apologies.
I like RJ’s work, for the most part, but I just can’t think that the race is anywhere near over yet. 50 games to go, anything can happen. I thought the Rays would win the division and World Series before the season began, and I very much stand by those thoughts at this point.
R.J., I appreciate your ability to give reasoned, unemotional analysis. As a Rays fan I can imagine it might not be easy to matter-of-factly write what you did above, but I know that most of your readership appreciates that you and your Fangraphs colleagues can put your fandom completely aside when you aim to write reasoned, impartial analysis.
Just one of the many reasons I make this a daily stop. Thank you!
The point is that, yes, anything can happen. Most things, however, do not. As the playoff odds report, there is currently about a 75% chance that the Yankees win the division and a 90% chance they make the playoffs. That other 10% obviously deals with your contingencies and crazy things. The race is not over, but pointing out that it is now highly unlikely that anyone will catch the Yankees is just fact.
Taking out loans? Maybe in the form of a second mortgage.
Tonight is a perfect example of why I said that the Yankees are no certainty to make the playoffs.
lost last night, likely to lose again tonight…they’re having a let down series against a mediocre Toronto ballclub (sans Rios at that) while Boston will probably gain 2 games right back as a result.
4 1/2 isn’t so fearsome at this point now is it?
Spoke a little too soon huh?
if only they had 5 Sergio Mitre in the rotation
Four games after the Sox series and their lead is exactly what it was when they left.
Things even out, and it’s now even more unlikely the Sox catch the Yankees than it was before.
Rays were still a far superior ballclub to the Yankees this year. Yankees had a thin rotation, an offense that all but disappeared in October, and a bullpen that was bonifide junk outside Rivera and Marte.
Luck obviously goes into winning a World Series, but the Yankees redefined “luck”. I wouldn’t bet on them reaching the playoffs in 2010.