Tigers Invest Heavily in Joaquin Benoit
How can a team best build a bullpen? We’ve seen different teams try different methods, with varying degrees of success. For the past five days the Marlins have tried one tactic. They’ve made three trades and have received a reliever in each. This resembles the Padres’ bullpen building philosophy, which involves gathering a ton of arms and finding the few that stick. Earlier today we saw the Tigers try a method that more resembles the Yankees’ philosophy. They signed Joaquin Benoit to a three-year, $16.5 million deal that can be worth up to $19.5 million.
Given Benoit’s 2010 numbers, that might appear to be a good deal. The Rays signed him to a minor league deal, but promoted him very early. He made 63 appearances, pitching 60.1 innings, and was nothing but effective. While his 1.34 ERA is clearly not sustainable, his peripherals — including 11.19 K/9 and 1.64 BB/9 — suggest that he could produce high quality seasons in the future. This is something the Tigers need. While their bullpen ranked in the middle of the AL, they did lose a key contributor in Joel Zumaya, whose future is in question. Adding Benoit helps shore up its setup corps.
The problems with this deal arise when we look further back in Benoit’s career. He came up through the Rangers system as a starter, but never made the rotation full-time. The Rangers used him more and more in relief before making the full sitch in 2006. In 2007 he was the organization’s Pitcher of the Year after a season in which he produced a 2.85 ERA with a high strikeout rate and workable walk rate. He also managed to keep home runs down, a useful trait when pitching in Arlington. But those 82 innings took a toll on his arm.
In July 2008 Benoit experienced shoulder soreness and ended up missing more than a month. Upon returning in early August he made 11 appearances and continued pitching well, striking out 16 in 10.2 innings. But after an appearance against Boston on September 7 he was done for the season. It took a full off-season to determine it, but in Spring Training 09 Benoit underwent rotator cuff surgery that would keep him out for at least the first half of the season. It ended up costing him all of 2009.
Benoit did experience arm problems before 2008, too. It was, in fact, the third time he suffered a shoulder ailment. He missed a total of 53 days in 2004 and 2005 because of tendinitis in his rotator cuff. He also missed 21 days in 2003 and 19 days in 2005 with elbow issues. It is understandable, then, that he got only a minor league deal last winter. When a history of arm trouble culminates in rotator cuff surgery that costs a pitcher an entire year, teams tend to back off. Yet Benoit bounced back to a level that few, if any, could have possibly forseen. According to the BIS data, his fastball actually got considerably faster following the surgery.
Does this single bounce back year justify a three-year commitment that will cost the Tigers at least $5.5 million annually? Obviously that will be the case if Benoit produces as he did in 2010 and 2007. But can they at all count on that? We’ve seen so many instances of relief pitchers dominating one year only to flop in the next. We need to look no further than another Rays free agent, Grant Balfour. He had a stellar 2008 before stumbling in 2009 and then recovering in 2010. Given Benoit’s track record, I can’t imagine he produces three stellar years in Detroit. If he doesn’t the contract becomes tougher to swallow.
Last off-season the Tigers let go a reliever who signed a similar free-agent contract. Brandon Lyon pitched well for them in 2009, though his ERA far outpaced his peripherals. This was due, in large part, to a .229 BABIP and 80.8 percent strand rate, two marks he had never come close to approaching in his career. The Tigers let him sign a three-year, $15 million contract with the Astros. To his credit, Lyon had a good year despite a BABIP (.295) and strand rate (74.6%) that were much more in line with his career averages. Scott Linebrink presents another case. The White Sox signed him to a four-year, $19 million contract, but haven’t gotten nearly that level of production out of him.
Benoit does present the same risks as Lyon. His 2010 BABIP was a staggeringly low .201, and his strand rate was 95.1 percent. There is little, if any, chance he comes even close to these numbers in 2011 and beyond. The best the Tigers can hope for, then, is a Lyon-type transition, where Benoit continues pitching well, but not quite as well as he did in his contract year. Even then, it only covers year one. How is Benoit going to fare after another year on his arm? After all, he will be 33 next season.
In a relatively strong right-handed reliever class, Joaquin Benoit stood out. He was a key component of the Rays bullpen in 2010, and he’ll play a similar role in 2011 as he sets up for Jose Valverde. But the Tigers are taking quite a large risk by signing him to such a large contract. We’ve seen it so many times in the past: a relief pitcher has a good year and signs a long-term deal, only to see his production decline. Benoit might be good, but his injury history and unsustainable 2010 numbers suggest that the Tigers have overpaid.
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I just can’t believe this deal and I wonder what the domino effect will be on the relief market. While Benoit was excellent this season there is no way he can keep that BABIP nor strand rate up over 3 years. I suppose if he can put up something like 1.3 WAR a year (maybe close at the end of the contract?) it works out at Market value but there seem like such a good relief market this hot stove that 3 years seems excessive
I have absolutely no research to back this up… just a general feeling here in Michigan that Detroit sports teams have to overpay… The Tigers have paid a premium in $ or years for most of their recent big free agent signings – Pudge, Ordonez, Valverde etc…
Not sure if its the GM or the city.
The city. I grew up near Detroit and have since left Michigan: let me tell you, Detroit It has a stigma outside of Michigan like you wouldn’t believe.
minus the “It” in the last sentence
Your intuition is right.
Detroit has a bad stigma for various reasons but for the purposes of prospective FA’s looking to sign, it’s not a prime destination nor someplace they necessarily want to raise their family. To live anywhere decent you have to live outside the city and preferably out in the middle of nowhere (Plymouth, for example).
So yes, Detroit either overpays or gives out more years than they want to retain and attract talent.
It is what it is……..
Living in Phoenix, I meet women from Michigan all the time. They moved away from Michigan for a reason………
Yeah, that’s basically complete nonsense other than the stigma attached to the city itself. Oakland County is across the street from Detroit- it’s not the middle of nowhere.
I have no idea what hat he pulled Plymouth out of, but that’s not in the middle of nowhere, either. Plymouth is right next to Ann Arbor.
Two years at $7M per is overpaying for Valverde? That’s less of a commitment than Benoit and Valverde is a better pitcher. Damon signed a fairly reasonable deal coming off a strong 2009 as well. If anything it’s more likely that Dombrowski simply outbids himself.
It’s highly unlikely, especially at this point in the offseason, that Benoit had another team lined up offering two years and $12M or three years and $14M or something.
Dombrowski probably saw a pitcher he wanted, and made a senselessly high offer that Benoit would’ve been a fool to refuse. I wonder if they even tried a lower offer or if they just opened with a three-year deal. There was nothing reported about what Benoit was looking for or what the Tigers offered — just, suddenly, “Benoit’s getting almost $17M!”
You’d think GMs would’ve learned about multiyear deals for middle relievers. What percentage of them work? Just a surprising overpay by the Tigers, especially after they just got out of so many bad contracts.
Benoit is a better pitcher than Valverde, when healthy. Actually, a lot better.
Could there be a discussion somewhere in this, conspiracy theory type, about Bucks generous signing with the Marlins (keep the Union off the Marlins butt) and this Benoit deal (to appease his agents)?
Not to take this off-track, but this is generally not like the Yankees’ philosophy to building a bullpen that they have taken over the last 2-3 years.
Aside from Rivera, who is a no-brainer to pay top dollar for, the only other significant FA contract they have given to a reliever is the $12M/3 year deal they gave Damaso Marte.
The rest of the bullpen has been assembled from their farm system (Robertson, Coke, Joba, Hughes, Melancon), independent/Mexican league pickups (Aceves, Edwar Ramirez), waiver claims/DFA’ed players (Bruney, Gaudin) low cost fliers on veteran retreads (Tomko, Park, Mitre) and trades for moderate salaried relievers (Logan, Wood).
Paying top dollar is obviously the Yankees’ main philosophy to building the rest of their team, but when it comes to filling out their bullpen they are largely filling from within or from dumpster diving looking for live arms.
I was thinking exactly the same thing. Even Marte, technically wasn’t a FA. They decline a 1yr/$6M option on him and instead signed him to his current contract. The Yankees (mostly) learned their lesson from the signing of pitchers like Farnsworth and Karsay.
I just noticed that Joe P. wrote this article, so I am sure that I am either misreading that sentence or he meant it in a different way than it reads. Joe P. is well aware of all that crap I wrote above, so I probably misinterpreted.
I was going to make the same comment you did about spending on the bullpen not being the Yanks philosophy (until I saw your comment.) I also had not noticed that Joe P. wrote this article until your second post. He is either writing to the masses or just simply referring to the Yanks overall philosophy, because, as you stated, he knows this is not how the Yanks build a BP.
I took that comment to mean the Yanks overall approach to putting a roster together, not necessarily limited to the bullpen.
Their philosophy this winter (with Cliff Lee) “If you can’t beat em, BUY em!”
I am losing a lot of faith in Detroit’s front office. Oh, well. At least we have the Red Wings for hockey!
this deal is fantastic. the tigers had to overpay by 4 million over 3 years (3 years 12 million was more appropriate). however, with a 120 million dollar payroll, one million a year extra isnt going to hurt anybody. also, for what its worth.. valverde was absolutely awful in the last two months of last year. the tigers could move him, and all of a sudden they have a closer for 5 mill a year… pretty good deal if you ask me.
I think the Tigers overpaid more in the number of years than in the money per year, although they probably also were a little high in that area too.
If they had given him a two year, $11 million deal, it would probably be a slight overpay, but you could understand it. Three years for a reliever is just very risky, though, especially at that money. They didn’t get a discount in either the length of salary.
so far, all signs are pointing to serious salary inflation this winter.
Buck, Lilly, Benoit, Peralta, Inge, etc. have all gotten well in excess of what I would have guessed a month ago.
Try dollar inflation.
I’m not sure those deals are much of an indication of anything. After all, three out of five are Dombrowski signings.
^It’s your city, not Dombrowski that’s the problem.
The economic downturn has ruined Detroit, it’s a real eyesore.
If you were from either coast, why would you want to move to Detroit or Michigan for that matter?
and I was saying that you can’t judge the market based on a sample predominantly consisting of signings by one GM — whoever that GM is.
Not necessarily in Benoit’s case. If you believe he is for real (I know, a big “if”) then you are getting a top reliever without giving up a draft pick. Most relievers coming off a year like Benoit had in 2010 would be type A.
The Tigers are taking a risk on his health, but a healthy Benoit is better than many of the available type A and all of the type B relievers.
Would you rather have Lyon or Benoit for the same dollars? Benoit has the superior upside, and profiles better as a setup/closer. It’s not a bargain, by any stretch, but if 1.3 WAR makes this a break-even, then he’s done that in 5 of his last 6 seasons. I’ll take him.
^Depends on the role.
For the same money, you take Benoit.
If we’re talking set-up, you take Lyon over Benoit.
If you have to choose a closer between the two, you take Benoit.
Why would I take Benoit to close but Lyon to setup? I assume you think Benoit is a better pitcher. He’s going to be a better pitcher than Lyon no matter the role. There’s not some unique character of the 8th inning that makes Lyon a unique fit for the job.
Taking a quick break away from the analysis of this signing, as a resident of Michigan I feel that I need to stick up for the state. Yes, the city of Detroit is an eye sore – one that reflects poorly on the state as a whole – that being said, the state itself is a wonderful place to live. If you prefer warm weather year round you might disagree, but as someone who appreciates and enjoys the diversity of four seasons the climate isn’t a negative in my eyes. You can find upscale suburbs surrounding Detroit just as you can around any major city in the country. If you enjoy nature it’s a great place to be – northern Michigan is gorgeous and we are surrounded by the most impressive fresh water lake system in the world. There are warts, but to say why would anyone want to live in the state is either a poorly thought out statement or simply a ignorant comment.
That’s all.
By the way, I was surprised by the length of the contract handed to Benoit, but given the payroll the Mike Ilitch has given DD to work with it will not hamstring the club in future dealings. That being the case it’s not much of a risk for the Tigers. If a team with a working payroll of $70 million gave Benoit this contract then it would be a larger gamble. In the end if DD identified him as the highest priority reliever on the market then I see no issue with the money or the term of the contract. One last thing – the fact that Benoit is a “Type B” free agent also adds to his value due to the fact that Detroit will not have surrender any draft picks in acquiring him.
Detroit will kill you if you’re a gangster and do gangster shit, but it’s really no worse than any other major city if you’re not slinging rocks on the corners. The places where you wanna be — restaurants, hotels, casinos, Ford Field/Comerica, Greektown, the Eastern Market, malls, concert venues, theatres — are fine. If you feel like a swashbuckler, by all means go to the hood, and bring a firearm. All that ruin porn you saw in Time is pretty easily accessible, too.
The ‘zomg our city sucks so we have to pay everyone eleventy-thousand dollars’ argument holds no water. You think Cal Ripken stayed in Baltimore all those years because it’s an urban paradise? And Pujols loves St. Louis because its ghettos have a rustic charm? These people are katrillionaires, they could live on the moon if they wanted to. The most Miguel Cabrera needs too regularly see of Detroit is the ballpark and a couple of strip joints.
Is it as simple as, Dombo felt, what with Zumaya’s issues, that in Benoit he’s signing a closer? And if Zumaya comes back just fine, that he’ll get at least equal value for Benoit’s contract in trade if he needs to do that?
Just trying to figure it out.
By the way, if the Tigers are stuck on moving Phil Coke to the rotation, as it seems they are, then they still need to add another reliever. Benoit replaces Zumaya, or maybe Lyon if you want to look at it that way. Now let’s replace Coke!