Tigers Pay a Dollar Today to Save Tomorrow
Despite what you might have heard earlier this off-season, the Tigers are not broke. That notion was refuted back in December, as was the idea that the the team would hold a fire sale. Yes, they traded both Curtis Granderson and Edwin Jackson, but those two wouldn’t have had an enormous effect on the 2010 payroll. The much larger contracts of Miguel Cabrera, Magglio Ordonez, and Carlos Guillen still remain. In fact, not only did the Tigers keep those significant salaries, but they actually increased payroll during the off-season.
In 2009, the Tigers opened the season with a $115 million payroll. From that group they shed about $12.5 million when Placido Polanco, Brandon Lyon, Fernando Rodney, and Adam Everett became free agents, and another $1.2 million because Ordonez’s vested option comes in below his 2009 salary. Players due raises, however, more than made up for the $13.7 million in savings. Cabrera, Guillen, Granderson, Dontrelle Willis, Brandon Inge, and Nate Robertson will earn a combined $15.3 million more in 2010 than in 2009. Then there are arbitration cases, many of them in Years 2 and 3, meaning a few players were set to become even more expensive.
Seeing the potential issues ahead, the Tigers made some moves in December. They traded Granderson and the remaining $25.75 million on his contract to the Yankees, while at the same time trading Jackson and his arbitration raises to the Diamondbacks. In return they got players making the league minimum (though it appears Max Scherzer will make $1.5 million from his draft contract). That helped them fill holes, but the team was still incomplete — and payroll was still around the 2009 level. Since then the Tigers have signed free agents Jose Valverde, Adam Everett, and Johnny Damon, and signed Justin Verlander to a five-year, $80 million contract that will pay him $6.85 million in 2010.
All told, according to Cot’s, the Tigers will open the year with a payroll around $130 million, or about $15 million higher than in 2009. How, then, can the team justify trading two productive players in Jackson and Granderson? Why not just keep Granderson, who will earn $5.5 million in 2010, and not sign Damon, who will earn $8 million? The answer is that the Tigers are paying today in order to save on payroll in 2011 and beyond.
Of the 16 Tigers who will earn more than $1 million in 2010, eight or nine will hit free agency in 2011. These include Willis, Robertson, Damon, Inge, Everett, Gerald Laird, Bobby Seay, and Jeremy Bonderman, for a total savings of about $54 million. Signing Damon means having four players — in addition to Ordonez, Guillen, and Ryan Raburn — for two corner outfield and one DH spot. That should allow the Tigers to keep Ordonez’s plate appearances under 540. They could then decline his option and shed another $18 million, bringing the total to $72 million.
Had they kept Jackson and Granderson, the Tigers would have been on the hook for an additional $16.5 million in 2011, assuming the $8.35 million Jackson will earn with the Diamondbacks. They also might not have signed Damon, which would have made it harder to hold Magglio’s plate appearances under 540, perhaps costing them another $18 million. Assuming the worst, that would bring the Tigers 2011 commitments from $55 million to $89.5 million, while their 2010 payroll would still, even without Damon, be around $130 million.
While the Tigers’ financial situation isn’t as harsh as some assumed earlier in the winter, it’s still probably a looming concern. Instead of selling off their expensive players for 50 cents or less on the dollar, they made a few moves to help save on future payroll. This will allow them to remain competitive in 2010 and more flexible come 2011. With a much stronger free agent class on the horizon, the Tigers will be glad they made the moves they did this winter. They might have set the foundation for a strong future.
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As a Twins fan, I’m a bit worried about the Tigers in 2011.
The Tigers do need a catcher.
Avila
go talk about J.D Drew on a page for comments relating to the RED SOX… you wonder why everyone from the midwest cannot stand SOX/ YANKS fans
The Tigers will have a lot of flexibility in 2011. They will need some new outfielders though and a left side for the infield.
Phil Rogers of the Trib (bleh) reported on this point, too.
A method to Dave Dombrowski’s madness. It may or may not work right, but at least he obviously put a lot of thought into this offseason rather than going Minaya on it (while he stinks, that may be as much, if not more, the ownership than him).
Does that $115 mil include Sheffield’s $13 mil?
Interesting point that the Tigers bringing Damon aboard may save the Tigers the $18M on Magglio’s contract by artificially keeping his appearances low. Can’t say I agree with the backslappy tone of this article, really, the Tigers are reeling from bad investments and this is damage control. I emphatically don’t agree with the statement in the last paragraph…if they don’t have money for Granderson now, what makes anyone think they’ll pay for prime talent in 2011? Curtis’ contract is going to look like a steal compared to what a comparable FA will earn.
Brian Cashman is Johnny Damon’s best friend. I wonder how much lower Boras would have fixed his buddy Ilitch’s “Magglio problem” for IF Cashman hadn’t publicized the $7M/yr Yankee offer. The Braves were offering how much? The Tigers pay $8M for an aging LFer who can’t lift his hands above his shoulders, lose a slugging CFer in his prime, and handcuff their best bat to cut FUTURE payroll (while essentially wasting what they are paying him NOW), and they’ll be “competitive” in ’10? Can you guys please define “competitive”? Where’s THAT graph?
Libertyboynyc,
well, here you go for “competitive”: http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/competitive
and here you go for how some are projecting “competitive” to mean is the AL Central: http://baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/
guess we’ll see if Damon is worth those two wins.
also, how come no “usa” in your name? or did you think it was patriotic enough as is?
yeah thanks, but someone should replace the batteries in your irony detector, Inspector Gadget!
What the hell does “if they don’t have money for Granderson now, what makes anyone think they’ll pay for prime talent in 2011?” mean? You really think they’re going to drop 72 mil from the payroll and then just not spend any of it? Ownership is just gonna decide ‘nah, we spent a ton to try and win but I don’t feel like it anymore’?”
You completely missed the point of the article. They didn’t trade Granderson because they were “reeling from bad investments” and “don’t have the money to pay him.” They obviously have the money, they just spent it on other players immediately after trading him. The point is that they replaced the higher-salaried Granderson and Jackson with cheaper, high-upside alternatives. They’ll still have a good CF and #2 starter, they’ll just pay about 10 mil less for them that they can spend on a bunch of other positions of need (3B, corner OF, SS, back-end rotation, etc.)
And what does “handcuff their best bat” mean? If you seriously think that Magglio is their best bat, then you are completely clueless about the Tigers.
If by “upside” you mean “valueless”, I agree. Austin Jackson has never had a major league at bat, I’m sure he’s happy that he went from being blocked from the bigs by Damon in NY and now in Detroit as well. Phil Coke burned out late last year and is an injury risk, his whole purpose in life was to keep Damaso Marte rested until the playoffs. Shades of Scott Proctor.
Pardon the “best bat” quip, of course I’m speaking quickly b/c this isn’t the only blog I seek to enlighten, Maggs puts up a 162-game average of .312-27-111 over 13 seasons in the bigs but I should rely on the guy who shows up to the playoffs hung over with scratches on his face from catfighting. My mistake. Cabrera is the future – no worries, only six more years of Jeter money with him.
I go to Cot’s and look at Inge’s contract and know everything I need to know about Detroit’s business plan.
“Pardon the “best bat” quip, of course I’m speaking quickly b/c this isn’t the only blog I seek to enlighten, Maggs puts up a 162-game average of .312-27-111 over 13 seasons in the bigs”
And its well known that players don’t decline until their 16th or 17th seasons. Dude, the more you write, the more its clear you don’t know the Tigers of the Central.
Brandon Inge’s contract has actually been an assest.. would have been even more valuable had they just left him @ third… Willis, Roberson, Guillen, Ordonez, and Bonderman… it ain’t hard to put some blame on dombroski.. but you actually picked the best contract extension he’s negotiated lately… TOO FUNNEY !!!!!
Yeah, why don’t you check the Inge average value chart on this site and get back to me.
He’s an average 3B starter that gets paid LIKE AN AVERAGE 3B STARTER! ZOMG LOOK AT DD PAYING MARKET VALUE FOR FREE AGENTS! SO STUPID!
You couldn’t make it any more obvious that you’re just another myopic Yankee fan who doesn’t know jack shit about baseball outside of the AL East.
Step 1: Rip on players that have just left the Yankees.
Step 2: Make stupid comment about player’s personal life that has no impact on baseball, because New Yorkers love their gossip.
Step 3: Reference things that happened 4 years ago (Bernie Williams’ 162-game average is great too, why isn’t he one of your best bats? Maybe because what happened between the years 2000-2007 aren’t really relevant to the present day?)
Step 4: Completely misjudge role player’s value, because Yankee fans don’t need to know anything about role players.
great article that concisely explains the tigers offseason.
as far as the twins worrying in 2011, it would be nice to have them worry about somebody. I think signing mauer long-term is more important to minnesota than any move the tigers might make.
LibertyboyNYC – obviously you aren’t too familiar with Detroit’s OF. Before Damon was added, Guillen, Ordonez, and Raburn were slated to fill the corner OF and DH slots. A rookie slated to take over CF, and a player who showed very limited offensive aptitude in C. Thomas to back all up. None of the backup IF’ers need be considered for DH duties. Given that Ordonez simply must not be allowed to get his vesting option, Guillen will be limited by his body, and Raburn would be exposed as an everyday player, they needed a corner OF’er that can give them 130-140 games. Additionally, Detroit has almost no left handed lineup presence. Damon represents exactly what Detroit needed.
If Ordonez stays healthy for the entire 2010 season, and there’s no reason to think he’d be at an elevated risk, he would almost assuredly reach his $15 million 2011 vesting option without the addition of another corner OF’er. Now, pending lengthy or multiple injuries, he shouldn’t. Magglio’s market value for 2011 will likely be $6-8 million. So if Detroit reups Magglio for 2011 and lets Damon go, essentially they get Damon’s services for this season for “free”.
Either way you can’t argue that Detroit won’t be competitive this season, even without Damon. As it stands now, the offense should be more productive than ’09, SP should be about the same or better, and the bullpen is improved too. There shouldn’t be any projections that have Detroit more than a few games out of the AL Central’s top spot going into this season, and with Damon’s addition, PECOTA may even project Detroit the team to beat.
Mitch, ask Jim Leyland if he enjoys having to be “competitive” under the stipulation that “Ordonez simply must not be allowed to get his vesting option”. I am quite familiar with Magglio’s B-R page, and I can assure you, in spite of the current backwash of press you hear decrying some 120 years of baseball physics in favor of the envious musings of eggheads who were used as the actual “T”s in TBall, there is something very real about SLUGGING and RUNS BATTED IN. Magglio has keyed that lineup for years. Sounds insane to take one of your best bats, sit him, lose the money you’re paying him now, and then pat yourself on the back for the money you save by not ever again paying him.
No doubts Johnny Damon will be productive at the plate as your DH, if he’s a one-and-done or not makes no difference, he again hits FA in October with much to prove, and, if that org can keep from throwing him under a bus like they will do with Magglio and like they did with Miguel Cabrera, he might just be a type-A come October. If not, the Tigers are deeper in the hole then ever.
Don’t forget, if Damon starts a game in left you have to pull him for defense late (the almighty D, no?), and if you decide that you need his bat late in the game than you have to sit the DH. The Tigers are playing shell games on multiple fronts.
“SLUGGING and RUNS BATTED IN”
Two things that Magglio provided little of for the Tigers last year.
“under the stipulation that “Ordonez simply must not be allowed to get his vesting option”.”
If this were actually the case, they would have had a great opportunity to stop this from happening last year. You’d know this if you were remotely familiar with the Tigers.
We get it, you’re from NYC and since Damon is involved you’re an “expert”. How about you just say, “thanks for Granderson”, and then sit back and enjoy as the Yanks platoon him this year. And next year, when his salary doubles (and Damon is off the Tigers books).
You really are a talented troll.
I’m not going to argue numbers with a guy who thinks $3.5M x 2 = $5.5M.
Firstly, Cashman has announced that Grandy is the starting CFer and that’s that, forget the Gardner experiment it’s a charade, they are trying to fluff up his trade value like they did Melky. Secondly, he’ll likely bat second versus righties and move lower in the order versus lefties, but OH YES he will see 600 PAs no doubt. He might even bat second versus lefties once
pardon, once Johnson breaks something. Hey do what you have to to save money, but don’t call it future.
One bad year and a guy gets thrown under the bus.
I think it’s funny how you mention Damon having to sit late in games because of his defense yet make no mention of having to sit Granderson late in games because of his inability to hit lefties. Come the 7th or 8th inning if it’s a close game when he’s due up in the order guess what teams do?(assuming the starting pitcher isn’t dealing) They bring their lefty specialist out of the bullpen to face him, and guess what Granderson does? Either goes back to the dugout due to a pinch hitter or goes to the plate and goes back to the dugout due to a strikeout or popup. As a Tigers fan I’ve probably seen 99% of his ABs over the last 4 years and I can tell you that this happens all too much.
Damon is probably a below par LF at this point but he’s not dreadful either. He’s actually better in left than Guillen or Raburn.
Ordonez’s production isn’t much of an upgrade from the current bevy of corner outfielders. Karabell even made an argument that Raburn is more productive right now than Magglio. His contract this year is a sunk cost, and given his age, his production rates might actually be a tad better given a day off on average once a week. It’s not like they are going to outright cut him through this process. The most you can argue that getting him just short of 540 plate appearrances and replacing whatever additional PA the RF earns in the lineup would cost the Tigers is maybe 5 runs. Before adding Damon that number was probably quite a bit higher.
BTW, PECOTA hasn’t been right, ever, you seem like a smart cat and you can probably sit down with a pen and pencil and work things out on your own and be reasonably accurate. Like Chuck D said, don’t believe the hype.
The White Sox added JJ Putz, who is putting the Mets debacle behind him (their medical dept is overpoliticized by the FO, when does that happen in life?), Jake Peavy (top-tier starter that Damon has never seen), Juan Pierre, and hey maybe Alex Rios earns his coin. The competition behind the Twins is as fierce as ever, don’t forget that new house in MinnyHaHa will draw cash in from every direction. I’m just saying Damon is damage control, not a step forward.
Listing Juan Pierre as a plus is just lazy trolling.
How do you know for sure that Putz debacle is behind him? How do you know for sure that Peavy is going to develop into a top tier starter now that he is leaving the ultimate pitchers park and the pathetic NL West offenses(atleast they were back when he was pitching his best) to the much tougher AL? Also the guy hasn’t started 30 games in 3 years so who’s to say he’ll actually stay healthy too. Not to mention the White Sox still finished 7 games behind the Tigers last year so it wasn’t like these two finished with identical records or something.(yes I know that they both were close together in run differential but that doesn’t tell the whole story)
Tobias, I can’t say I know for sure but what I do know is that the Mets org – I follow it closely – has a terrible reputation locally for destroying talent, mostly because of power struggles and unclear culpabilities and mostly because the Wilpons are not solid ballclub owners. Putz was quoted as saying he was hurt starting the season but was pushed out there. The team f’d with Ryan Church when he was concussed, pushed Reyes out there until his hamstring blew up, screwed up Wright’s swing last year with hundreds of daily curveball drills, the list is endless. So yes, it’s a solid assumption to make that if Putz says his down year is behind him b/c he’s away from the Mets mismanagement, I would definitely throw a chip in that pot.
Regarding Peavy, he’s a two-time All Star, Cy Young Award winner, and has led the league in strikeouts in ’07 with 41-year-old Greg Maddux following him in the rotation. And, I’m not sure what a park has to do with strikeouts, but I’m pretty sure that a park has NOTHING to do with strikeouts, dig? Strikeouts mean the hitters aren’t touching him. Trying to figure out what you mean by “develop” into a top-tier starter but I’m scratching my head like an orangutan, he’s already a top-tier starter and he’s in his prime.
You’re right that the park has nothing to do with strikeouts but unless he struckout everybody he faced chances are at some point he benefited by playing in the park. How much did he? I have no idea, and I don’t think anybody would know unless they watched every single one of his starts and figure out how many of his flyouts would be HRs in most other parks specifically U.S. Cellular where he’ll pitch now. If there’s a stat that can determine this for sure I’d like to see it. But It may only have been a couple a year or there could’ve been 10 or so which would noticeably alter his numbers.(even though they’d probably still be good)
And yeah I shouldn’t have used the word develop. That was a wrong choice of words, what I meant was would he still be like the Peavy of old when moving away from the pitchers park and into the hitters park and moving to the much tougher league. He’s obviously a great talent so I wouldn’t be surprised if he did but it’s not a given. I’m sure there’s been quite a few people that gone to the AL and didn’t perform like they did in the NL.
1) It’s a projection system, not a prediction system. Their projected record is a point estimate.
2) Oh really?
Man you’re a lazy troll.
Pierre bats .300 in a platoon and is a stealing threat, and has range and experience. He’s paid quite handsomely to do so. Yes, Pierre is a weapon. Who’s catching for the Tigers again?
That’s your “oh snap” comeback, asking who catches for the Tigers? Well played. I dunno, guess I just expected more from a New Yorker.
Laird if they feel like defense.
Avila if they feel like offense.
But you knew that, right?
Finally an article that has the Tigers offseason figured out. You can agree or disagree with the moves, but DD has a plan. It is all about 2011. Verlander, Porcello, Max S, Valverde and the young pen arms for pitching. Cabrera as the anchor to the offense. Use 2010 to figure out what you have in Sizemore, Jackson, Avila among others, then have a large amount of payroll flex to buy what you need for 2011 and beyond.
NOONE could have said it better.. well maybe me when i said it OVER and OVER on the Freep.com message boards, and the Blessyouboys.com message boards…
It is al labout 2011 and beyond, but still being able to put a few butts in the seats this year…
GREAT article BTW… I have never seen this guys writing but he puts Camron and his Bias against every non-SABR GM to shame…
Whether Granderson is or is not platooned is irrelevant. He should be. He can’t hit garbage lefties, let alone good ones. He’s no longer a plus defender so it’s not like he’ll be providing value in that sense. Ordonez is on his way out, and paying him another 15 M next year would be a disaster. It’s a shame they (Leyland) let him vest this year. And Leyland would get Magglio over the PA vest again this year without Damon. He’s that type (old school) of manager. Edwin Jackson is what he was second half 2009, not the first half. And RBI’s aren’t of value, no matter how many times that’s been pounded into baseball fans, or wins for pitchers for that matter
I can’t really blame Leyland for allowing Magglio’s option to kick in last year cause I really don’t think he had a choice. In the 2nd half of the year I believe Magglio led all regular AL OFs in BA and was 2nd in OPS, so it would be hard to justify to the union sitting a proven all star who was putting up those type of numbers(even though alot of it was due to a fluky BABIP) for career minor leaguers/4th OFs. In the first half of the year he got away with benching him some games but he couldn’t do that late in the year with the way he was hitting. If he did there certainly would have been a grievance filed and I’m sure he would’ve won mainly because of the reasons I mentioned.
I dig that kid Porcello, because he’s Jersey-strong and because he hip-tossed that fruitpie Youkilis after KY charged him and threw his helmet at him like a straight-up “sissy”. “Sissy” is what we called people who threw helmets instead of fists in the old school, that is, until all the sissies unified and got their own PAC and that was that.
Maybe an “old-schooler” like Leyland shouldn’t be left with a bum contract to deal with, his job is to get games won. He doesn’t negotiate the contracts, his job is to field the best team and you may as well do that with the best players and there is such a thing as down years for great players. Let’s take the second best OPS on the team the last FOUR or FIVE years and forget it completely! just because he had a bad few months on a team that just barely sniffed the playoffs. OK
In the old school, the fans would be hitting the players with hot dogs, not the other way around. Life is upside down nowadays. RBIs and runs scored don’t matter but some made-up calculations do? OK
Riiiight and JD Drew is worth how many millions because his fibonacci’s are all synchronized up with the primed squared doobumbles? OK
You don’t win the game unless you cross the plate more than the other guy.
Liberty,
On the one hand, I hate to come across as throwing Maggs “under the bus” as you say. However, you keep saying things like:
“You don’t win the game unless you cross the plate more than the other guy.”
while ignoring the fact that last year Maggs was almost out-produced by offensive laughing-stocks such as Laird and Everett. Despite having the 11th highest post All-Star break OPS in the league; 6 players equaled or surpassed his HR or RBI totals during this stretch (only 3 of whom had more ABs) on the Tigers alone. The guy is 36 and, despite his astronomical 2nd half numbers, only drove in 50 and crossed the plate 54 times all year. That’s far behind Inge, who you lampoon, yet makes 1/3 the salary while providing much more defensive value.
Again, my point isn’t to bash Maggs, as a Tigers fan I hope he has a monster year and that all the typical spring training hype is true in his case. But at a certain point, as a player ages, their career numbers don’t hold as much weight as their recent numbers do. In this case, there’s plenty to be concerned about.
Hey idiot.
Among the active top 100 in runs scored, J.D. Drew is FOURTH in Runs scored per plate appearance.
Albert Pujols (29) 1071 6082 0.17609339
Alex Rodriguez (33) 1683 9611 0.175111851
Derek Jeter (35) 1574 9809 0.160464879
J.D. Drew (33) 852 5321 0.160120278
Manny Ramirez (37) 1506 9437 0.159584614
Chase Utley (30) 602 3813 0.157880934
Carlos Beltran (32) 1085 6877 0.157772284
Todd Helton (35) 1222 7761 0.157453936
Chipper Jones (37) 1458 9273 0.15723067
Johnny Damon (35) 1483 9433 0.157214036
Since apparently statistical analysis is over your head, that’s a very “not made up number”. Moron.
You sure you’re not just trolling? Either way, solid job with the caricature, guy. The JD Drew thing just seems like icing on the cake.
As far as the Tigers go, if you can’t see the overall offseason as a positive, I don’t know what to tell you. It’s like the earlier commenter said, why can’t you just be happy with having a great player in Granderson? Why is it that Detroit can’t benefit after all of this? You have to trade talent to get talent, and they did that.
Getting Johnny Damon is huge for all of the reasons everyone said: he’ll fill their need for a lefty bat, he gets on base at a great clip and will fill the Tigers huge hole in the 2 spot, and gets Carlos Guillen OUT of LF (where he’s awful) and into the DH spot where he’ll stay healthy and hit. This makes Ryan Raburn the primary sub in the OF (and possibly IF), and he *will* get ABs. Whatever your devotion is to Magglio Ordonez, his performance over the last two seasons (both offensively and defensively) are not worth 18 million or 15. If you can get out of that, you do it.
This is also completely ignoring the gigantic improvement the bullpen will experience with Valverde at the back (who is miles better than Rodney or Lyon), allowing everyone else to be flexible and not having to rush someone like Zumaya back (like they did last season). The rotation is going to experience a nice shot in the arm with Max Scherzer sliding into the #2/#3 role, and having a hopefully healthy Jeremy Bonderman all the way back in the 4th spot will be huge.
No one is saying that Johnny Damon is going to be an all star, or that DD’s plan this offseason was perfect. But to imply that all of things that occurred this offseason haven’t set Detroit up *extremely* well both this year and for the future is very short-sighted.
I think I’ve figured out the basic formula for trolling fangraphs
1) Call everyone a nerd.
2) Give over-the-top defense of a crappy hitter for speed.
3) Give over-the-top defense of an aging slugger projected to go .295/.362/.453 because RBI’s matter (even though he was 5th on his own team and only 6 more RBI’s than one of the worst hitters of the decade)
4) Say something to bash JD Drew / Adam Dunn (because when I think HS robotics team, I think those guys)
No, you have it all wrong kiddo. Not everyone here is a nerd. I’m no troll, I just have my own thoughts and they come before the party line. If I disagree, I speak up. If I vehemently disagree, I speak up vehemently.
Theo Epstein is on a hook with JD Drew’s lousy contract and hardcore/longtime Boston fans know that all that money went into a first-inning grand salami in ’07 postseason (someone remember the game for me, I’m getting old) and that’s what they will have to show for it.
It’s funny how RBIs are detracted because of “having to do with runners in front of you” but Runs Scored are vaunted even though they have to do with what batters are doing behind you. How is that “logic” NOT inherently self-contradiction?
I don’t know how many Boston games you guys watch with your own eyes, but JD Drew is NOT fast. By the numbers he batted .213 RISP last year. That’s pitiful, in English that means one hit every fifth time up minus the walks, and for those who would cite his OBP that’s great but last I checked the winning model for the middle-of-the-order is to have your sluggers consistently SLUG the runs in, not take a free pass and leave it to the next guy. Again, JD might as well throw his helmet at the ball. He’s overpaid, very simply, no matter how much math you layer on top of his numbers. I’ll give him that he’s a reasonably good fielder with a strong arm and occasional power, that can’t seem to make it to the plate for 600 apps on a consistent basis.
Actually, Iike Adam Dunn, now that you mention him. What you see is what you get with him, he’s just a big mauler and I’m cool with it.
Hey, cherry picking is fun.
Here’s what you point out:
108 AB, 23 H.
Here’s the part of the story you convienantly leave out:
143 PA, 23 H, 32 BB, 6 2B, 7 HR, .399 OBP, .463 SLG, .216 BABIP, 127 sOPS+.
Run Scoring is not vaunted, it’s simply something to wrap your reptilian brain around. And since OBP is highly correlated with runs scored, it makes sense that someone who scores a lot of runs is probably pretty good, because hey, look who else is on that list.
And for his career, he’s a .280 hitter w/ RISP. .283 overall. In fact, his career RISP #’s are pretty much in line with his no men on #’s. So, not a point.
Also, the Red Sox needed an OF. They could either have had Drew, Lee, or Soriano. Two of these guys have what everyone thinks are among the worst contracts in MLB. One is an above-average defensive RF with a .276/.390/.485 line over 3 seasons (and .279/.399/.521 in the last 2). So if you’re not trolling, try answering these questions:
1) What about Drew’s 2009 BA w/ RISP screams anything other than small sample size statistical anomaly?
2) What were the Red Sox supposed to do when in the market for a corner OF at the end of 2006? Would you rather have the other two options?
3) So why is Adam Dunn and his career .249/.383/.520 liberty-approved, but JD Drew’s .283/.392/.504 a bane of the Red Sox existance?
DNFTT. The *obvious* troll, I might add.
Anyway, I had wondered whether the Tigers were doing all this for medium-term flexibility. I’m not sure what they’ll do with said flexibility, but in the abstract it’s nice to have.
Damon at 1/8 seems like a solid bet to be useful. I wouldn’t have minded if the Yanks had resigned him at that price. His D probably isn’t as godawful as it looked last year (’08 was good). The issues are likely health and park effects.
I’m psyched to have Granderson, and I do wonder if his apparent helplessness against LHP was amplified by Comerica, is coachable, or is something the Yankees will simply have to deal with (platoon). If it’s to be a platoon, I suppose they could use one of Winn/Thames. When they sub one of those guys in, they go to LF and Gardner plays CF. I think the Granderson vs. LHP issue is secondary to the Gardner vs. MLB pitching issue, though…
I think with some really coaching Granderson will improve big time against lefties..
The Tigers have a hitting coach so bad, that veterans were driving an hour away after every homegame to work with the hitting coach at AAA Toledo.
In 2009, I have Grandy’s SLGCON against lefties at 0.319, while against righties it’s 0.684. He can’t hit lefties and that shouldn’t change in his new park, though he should absolutely mash normal-armed pitchers.
Yes, 14 million for this season and next season for a guy who’s been a 4-5 win player the last two years (and has been consistently good throughout his career, offensively and defensively). What a travesty that is. I’m sure Theo regrets it every day.
As far as your RISP comment goes, over his career Drew has hit .280 with RISP (for a cool .906 OPS). So not only does he get a hit every 3rd time, he also takes a walk (over .400 OBP, yeah that sucks too), and slugs .496. I’m so sorry he can’t break .500 SLG for you. Let’s not forget that has he *walked more than he has struck out* with RISP over his career (and that is not a typo). So to last year I say, Sample size. We’ll see how he does this season.
The one thing I will give you is the health issue. He’s only been over 600 PAs once in his career, and being that he’s in his 30s that’s probably not going to get a lot better. Having said that, it’s that much more impressive that he can still put up the WAR stats that he does in such limited playing time.
Also, anyone who doesn’t like RBIs obviously could give a rat’s ass about runs scored as well. Both are dependent on the players around you, and both are crappy stats to use for future predictive purposes. I’m fairly certain most everyone here knows that (and if you didn’t, then now you know).
The ONLY reason I ever use runs to explain something is when someone is particularly bullish. Look at that junk stat I cited (R/PA)
Albert Pujols – 0.17609339
Alex Rodriguez – 0.175111851
Derek Jeter – 0.160464879
J.D. Drew – 0.160120278
Manny Ramirez – 0.159584614
Chase Utley – 0.157880934
Carlos Beltran – 0.157772284
Todd Helton – 0.157453936
Chipper Jones – 0.15723067
Johnny Damon – 0.157214036
So let’s see
HoF
HoF (probably, I think people will get over his little *)
HoF
Drew
Possible HoF (depends how much people get over his *)
Superstar / likely HoF
HoF caliber
50/50 HoF
90/10 HoF
A good player who has gotten the privledge of hitting in front of all time sluggers
When that’s the company a guy keeps, he’s doing something right.
I’ve only been reading fangraphs for a year.. but by my best calculations starting A. Jackson inn center and leading him off would cost the tigers right around 2 wins vs. a C. Thomas/ R. Raburn platoon inn center… both were worth 1.8 WAR last year inn riight around 300 PA’s… leyland’s fascinatiion with leading off a “fast guy” who projects to a 313 wOBA and prduced a 123:40 strikeout to walk ratio inn the minors makes me puek a little inn my mouth.. frankly i then went into a full-out dry heave when i read that since we picked up damon Raburn would also workout inn the infield instead of exclusively inn the outfield… has he seen raburn inn the infield??? this is a guy that’s spent his whole life inn baseball??? unbelievable…. btw.. i’m not totally hating on A. Jackson.. just think he needs @ least a few more months inn the minors.. call him up inn the summer WHEN guillen gets hurt… been scrolling through comparisons and the best i can come up with for Jackson’s bat inn the future are D. Fowler, M. Bourn, A. Carbrera, and D. Spam(if he learns a little plate discipline).. so by next year he should be a 2-2.5 WAR CF… i think
I think Sizemore and Damon should bat 1 and 2… in either order… J
I also HATE Leylands obsession with speed… Maybe if Leyland would look at that little old thing called MATH, and realized that a sac bunt with a runner on an no outs is NOT A GOOD THING, then maybe speed wouldnt be as important to him.
Leyland is the most overrated manager in baseball history. The only reason people think he is good is that he has been around a long time.
I do think he is the best at keeping his players happy and managing huge egos…. But as for running a game, any little league manager could do better.
I know a manager can’t win a game for his team, but I do believe they can lose them… And Leyand would lead the league in that stat!!!
1) That point was to address the insanity of using Magglio’s bad half to justify the denigration of his future and then go that extra mile of lauding Damon’s contract as a cost-saving measure that will “pay off”. Again, a shell game. If one was to look at JD Drew’s ’09 with the same bent as the Magglio-killers do, one should consider Drew’s contract as a raw deal because there’s no rabbit hole / out clause for the GM to jump into. Talk about cherry picking, you site his “overall” numbers but “overall” with the Sox he hasn’t batted in a 70th run in three seasons and is below career norms in:
BA (.276 w/Sox v. .283 career)
OBP (.384 w/Sox v. .392 career)
Slugging Pct (.485 w/Sox v. .504 career)
…and that’s added to fact that he’s averaged 129 games a season, let’s see, they play 162 so (follow me now!) 162 minus 129 = 33 games missed, and, if you consider six games a week, that’s missing a month and half of action. So not only do you have:
1) mediocrity in career averages
2) mediocrity in Sox career vs. career averages (to be termed “submediocre”)
3) he’s submediocre for 4 1/2 months and incapacited for 1 1/2 months.
And hey, don’t call my brain reptilian, kids frequent this blog.
He had a terrible start to the contract. And it’s not like those are bad numbers from an adequete defender. I’m not really sure what your definition of mediocre is, but I assume that the standard in your brain is “if you’re not Hank Aaron, you suck ass and have no value above the league minimum”. I’m surprised Jeff Loria hasn’t hired you yet.
And you see, here’s the real big differences:
Maggs is a mediocre defender. He’s not bad, and it would be totally unfair to call him bad, but he’s not too great, either. Drew is a good outfielder.
Also, by limiting his PA’s in 2010, the Tigers end up saving millions that they could use on younger players.
Maggs is good, but $15MM worth of good? If you want to pay 37 year old Magglio Ordonez $15MM in 2011 when he goes .290/.350/.430 instead of just giving a prospect like Wilkin Ramirez a chance (who still needs time in AAA IMO), be my guest.
And I’ll mention again that your standard of mediocrity is either trolling or borderline insane.
You do realize that a .276 BA would equal .283 with just nine additional hits over three years. Three hits a season fewer…that’s what makes his time in Boston vs. career mediocre and sub par? You really are proving that you don’t know what you are talking about. Thank goodness you started learning to talk nonsense about the the Yanks/Sox and leave the Tigers out of it. It only makes it worse when you try to critique a team you know nothing about.
Are you sure about the 3 hits per season thing??? I know towards the end of the year, a 4 for 4 day might only raise someones season average .001… .007 for 9 hits seams funny… but i am too lazy to do the math…
Last 3 seasons, Drew has had 1,286 AB’s, for 355 H. To get to .283, he would need 364 H
So, exactly 3 hits per season.
Joe, he would have to get those 9 hits in 0 AB’s for your math to work. A 12 fer 12 stretch would be the quickest way to get there (.28274), but, of course, he probably won’t go 12 for 12. I guess you could have meant that if he had turned 3 outs into hits (or errors, even), but that wasn’t very clear.
Talk about sample size, Drew has two seasons out of thirteen even sniffing 600 PAs. He’s so well rested, his employers can reliably expect his 4 1/2 months mediocrity further into the future than one can guess.
If Drew’s production is “mediocre” (which I’ll even give the benefit of the doubt and claim you mean average), what’s “good” performance?
“Good” = “better than JD Drew’ for the purposes of me explaining myself to a foul-mouthed bully like you – stay with me, though, because I gotta admit, you hit the ball right on the screws when you say Drew ain’t Hank Aaron. 110% agree. As far as “bad start” check my math but 3 out of 5 years comprises … let me check my calculator … 60% of his contract … which … one moment … calculating … is more than 50%, means he’s passed halfway and is trending below career.
Stay with me now…
The latest Boston brainstorm – as approved by the Bill James Deep Blue GigaProjector on baseballmusings.com – JD Drew bats no better than SEVENTH for a run-optimized lineup. Here’s the link:
http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/baseball/red_sox/view.bg?&articleid=1235387&format=&page=1&listingType=sox#articleFull
…and the prophet spake, in the fourth year of our Theo’s Contract with Drew, not even all the king’s soothsayers could possibly scry him passed seventh in the lineup no matter how his RS/PA looked.
All said, for myself, I’ll stick to predictions, projections don’t turn me on.
Finally, I’m not sure how Pythagoras himself would view people downplaying the RBI on one hand while using Pythagorean RF/RA to calibrate win scenarios on the other, the Plato in me doesn’t quite resonate to that sphere, chico.
You’re working real hard to troll so poorly.
Because if you know, actually, took some CHONE projections and inputted the player names themselves, you would see they cherry picked lineups with Ellsbury leading off. Three of the top 6 lineups have Drew leading off
JD Drew would have the 3rd highest OPS+ on the Yankees (tied with Jorge Posada at 133), trailing only Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira. Pair this with the fact that he managed to put up a 4.8 WAR in 539 PAs, and that would be 3rd on the Yankees as well, behind Teixeira and Jeter (by almost half a win, no less). All this, in less than 550 PA.
If that’s mediocre, you’re high.
“All this, in less than 550 PA.”…that’s right Bob, less than 550 PA you just pay $15,000,000 shipping and handling*****. Order now!
Tex and ARod would bat fifth and sixth in the Sox order right? Right before Drew. lol. And Ben Zobrist is worth like $35M. You can’t make this stuff up, but you guys really do just make this stuff up!
Ben Zobrist’s PERFORMANCE was worth $35 million, not Ben Zobrist. If you could predict, with 100% certainty, that a player would duplicate Zobrist’s season, then you would pay him $35 million for a one year contract. Pujols is about to get that and he’s stuck over at 1B with a broken wing. Nice to see a passionate fan stuck in the 60′s. Groovy man.
You keep saying things like “he hasn’t batted in a 70th run.” Really? That’s why he is mediocre?you must be on to something. Yes , I’m sure of it. Bengie Molina is clearly the better hitter with those 85 and 90 RBI seasons. Nevermind he can’t get on base 3 of 10 times. Nevermind he bats cleanup versus Drew down in the order. The most valuable thing a player can do, offensively, is not make an out. It’s quite simple. It’s not to SLUG in runners. 1.000 OBP is essentially infinite runs. 1.000 SLG is impressive… But that’s it.
Infinite runs. I’ll just let that statement hang there for those blessed few who can appreciate it.
Math
1.000 OBP = never make an out = inning never ends = infinite runs.
So yes, 1.000 OBP = infinite runs.
Trolls make the day at work go so much quicker.
Please go to Ruben Sierra’s 1993, 101 RBI season and tell me how “valuable” he was.
Don’t put words in my mouth. It was a good year for Bengie Molina, who was dumped into the four-hole in a B-rate hitting team and still manned up to drive roughly a run in from scoring position every third opportunity and hit 40 pts higher than Drew RISP to boot. Two guys in that SF lineup that even sniffed .300 BA, nevermind OBP, that team did not score runs but it wasn’t Molina’s fault. Not too many pitchers afraid of anyone in that lineup. You can piss on one player’s accomplishments to make another’s mediocrity look nicer but that’s your own illusion.
Just don’t call me a troll because I point out that the wheels are flying off that car and you come back with how nice the paint job is! That makes you some kind of anti-troll, a “llort” maybe, whatever the case may be, insulting me makes you look dumber because you just keep narrowing the scope of your argument.
go talk about JD drew on an article pertaining to the redsox… sit here and read through 55 coments on a tigers article and half of them are about J.D. Drew???? i don’t go to red sox articles and post opinions of why Whitikar and Trammel should be inn the hall
Ruben Sierra won how many games with his 101 RBIs that season? Or don’t your metrics factor in the effect of winning? Wins are more than just a number. On the subject of winning…
IT’S EVERYTHING.
Thank you for agreeing with me, since the ’93 A’s went 68-94.
liberty… i read your comment abuot cot’s and brandon inges’ contract… you managed to pick the BEST contract Dombroski negotiated inn the past four years with INge when Willis, Robertson, Guillen, Sheffield, and Ordonez are the 500 lb goriilas sitting inn the room… priceless
Seriously, Dombrowski has some bad deals. Inge is not one of them.
Inge is the guy for years us stat nerds scratched our head and wondered why the Tigers loved him so much. Then defensive metrics became big and we said “oh that’s why”.
When you can go from a good defensive catcher to a good defensive 3B as seemlessly as he did, you can play baseball for awhile.
I personally don’t know what a troll is, to be honest. I assume that it means you go onto websites like fangraphs and comment on how the readers and writers are nerds, or something.
I’m not trying to insult you or put words in your mouth, rather I’m trying to help you see the light. If the RBI is still a great baromter for offensive production, the world is flat.
I think I’m done with this thread but I will say I agree Leyland had no choice but to play Magglio. He gave the Tigers the best chance to win in the second half, obviously. It’s just a shame because they didn’t make the playoffs, and thus got nothing for it. Not that either (tigers and twins) had a shot against the Bombers, anyway. Why? Because they spend $200 M a year AND understand how to construct a roster with sound statistical analysis, scouting and player development. Consider yourself lucky. Cashman’s doing the same things Epstein is internally, he’s just not as vocal about it.
Swisher was a point of contention I remember.
Some of the WEEI guys scoffed because of his bad 2008 and didn’t see the big deal with the Yankees acquiring Swisher.
People like me were flabbergasted that the White Sox literally gave the Yankees a very good hitter in his prime for nothingness.
BTW, a troll is anyone who incites / flames a community solely for a reaction. Judging by his comments, that’s all he is.
Since I’m bored, though, I’ll gladly feed him.
Verlander & Porcello .. no chance??? yanks were happy to see that minnesota pitching
+1
When it comes to playoffs, its all about your 1 2 and 3 SP’s…
Drew in 2009..
539PAs 84R 24HR 68RBI…84+68-24=128
rubes in 93..
692PAs 77R 22HR 101RBI…77+101-22=156
That means that rubes scored or drove in a run once every 4.44PAs. Poo in 09 once every 4.21 even with Rubes and his abysmal .288OBP in 93 compared to Drew’s .392 in 2009.
^^^^^^ this dude is hilarious.. someone should give him his own show… Runs + Homeruns + RBI’s = Players’ value …. cutting edge stuff there !!!!
Let’s reverse that, call it Run Production per PA
0.5(R+RBI)/PA
Sierra: .1127
Drew: .141
Over 500 PA, that’s a difference of over 14 runs. Doesn’t even factor in that Sierra had 16% more RISP in his PA’s than the league average vs. J.D. Drew, who actually was slightly BELOW average in #’s of runners in scoring position per PA. Let’s ignore that Sierra was a brutal fielder, too.
There is no way you think Sierra’s 93 was better than Drew’s 09. At least I hope not.
Did I say Poo? Meant Drew.
You guys keep bringing lousy seasons / hitters and asking me why they are better than Drew, but you’re answering your own questions.
I admit that in mentioning the Drew contract there is only an at best diagonally topical to Magglio. IMO just reading about some GM stunt to hide the badness of a contract reminded me of the cr@p sold in the Boston media regarding Drew.
The Boston media hates J.D. Drew. Have you not read CHB lately?
Inge might be the best contract, indeed, like I said, just look right there. bottom line is, all I’m saying is I don’t agree with a GM pouring turpentine on a dogpile and telling everyone how now it smells like roses, and then showing us how similar the chemistry of turpentine and rose-aroma is.
There is more to a community than everyone agreeing or even agreeing to be agreeable. You would agree?
And now the classic consensus = groupthink argument. Don’t agree, else it’s groupthink.
No one has the exact same opinions on everything. There are some things we all agree on, though:
SLG > RBI
OBP > AVG
Facts = good
cherry picked statistics highlighing one weakness or a small sample to crucify a guy = bad
I can’t pull myself away. Too entertaining. You’re probably right considering the pitching of Detroit. Any team has a chance, in any series, given the small sample size. In a 5 game series even more so. Even the Royals have a shot if Greinke throws 2 games.
I think the R RBI HR / PA should be in a museum for it’s brilliance.
I’m happy to agree to disagree. Besides, debate is good for the brain.
if only you could multiply ( r +rbi+ hr)/ pa by bating average… and then add inn some type of “fear factor” and then someone might be able to convince me why Jim Rice is inn the hall of fame and Sweet Lou and A. Trammel are not…. liberty.. do you have a hall of fame vote?
Ugh
Jim Rice
I hate Jim Rice
I am a Red Sox fan
The fact that he’s in the Hall of Fame, Trammell will be lucky if the VC votes him in by 2050, and Whitaker is the most screwed over player ever in Hall voting.
Jack Morris, on the other hand, will get in. Ironically he’d have no shot if he didn’t have two defensive vacuum cleaners playing middle infield for him. What were their names again?
yeah old sweet lou is #55 on the career WAR list.. highest rated player besides pete rose that is eligible but not enshrined.. guy couldn’t even get 5%… think jim rice is rt. around #250….
Lou and Tram not being in the hall is the biggest travesty in sports.
Like the guy above said, Lou is #55 in WAR, and I think Tram is like #67… What a joke..
But then you got guys who played for the Almighty Yanks who are like #350 in WAR and they are in the HALL…
Seriously look at the all time WAR for pitchers… After the top 100 pitchers in WAR, the only players in the hall are Yankees…
It is a joke…
Blyleven #13 career WAR for pitchers is sad as well… but he’ll get inn nxt year
I’m just happy that someone finally wrote an article on this site that got it right about the Tigers and what they’re trying to do. Whether its a winning plan or not has yet to be seen, but I expect better than some of the lazy takes I’ve seen throughout the off-season about Detroit.
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