Comments on: Tim Lincecum’s Woeful Start

By: Adam R.

Adam R. — Mon, 19 Oct 2009 16:45:28 +0000

Shouldn’t sabermatricians know (much) better that microscopic sizes don’t mean jack squat?

By: ??

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By: CaR

CaR — Fri, 01 May 2009 14:53:19 +0000

That makes it even more hilarious. Neo-Saber “analysts” with these shiny toys showing (unfortunately) how little they know of on field play. No disrespect to Mr. Anderson, but it was way to early in the year to be judging anyone one way or the other. I would like to see the other information being used to make his determinations, so as not to be forced to judge motive. Jeff Nye bravely predicting a pitcher won’t again repeat what can easily be described as a top ten pitching season over the last 25 years. Wow, great stuff.

By: joser

joser — Thu, 30 Apr 2009 22:00:54 +0000

Actually, there has been a lot written about that. You just have to look around.

By: joser

joser — Thu, 30 Apr 2009 21:59:09 +0000

Unless you actually read and comprehended it.

By: Rich

Rich — Thu, 30 Apr 2009 20:14:40 +0000

Well, how many starts does a guy get, 34? He’d have to have almost all complete games to reach 300 IP

By: Rich

Rich — Thu, 30 Apr 2009 20:12:30 +0000

this article is hilarious now

By: SharksRog

SharksRog — Thu, 16 Apr 2009 20:56:33 +0000

Mostly a guess on my part, but I think pitchers half a century ago were able to pitch more innings for a couple of reasons which often aren’t discussed.

First, the number of pitches per at bat has increased during that time (due in part to more swing-throughs), so more innings could be pitched back then on the same number of pitches.

Second, with fewer power hitters (and likely fewer good hitters overall) back then, I think pitchers were able to coast more at times. I don’t think today’s pitchers are able to coast much at all. Batters take more pitches and swing and miss at more — but they seem to hit balls harder than in the past.

By: SharksRog

SharksRog — Thu, 16 Apr 2009 20:50:52 +0000

You say Tim’s past workload and unusual motion are a bad combination, but you’re merely guessing.

I’m not saying you couldn’t be right, merely that your opinion is almost entirely guesswork.

Let’s look at some facts:

First, the data on Tim is based on only 92 of his 177 pitches thrown thus far this season. I believe Fan Graphs missed his entire first game and seven of his 99 pitches thrown on Sunday. So we’re basing our opinions on only one game.

Second, the speed of Tim’s curve and change each decreased far more last year than the speed of his fastball. When Tim’s curve has maximum bite, his speed is slower — and he had very good bite on his curve ball Sunday, although his control with it was only so-so. And part of the effectiveness of his change up is based on its speed differential compared with his fastball. The decline in the speed of Tim’s change up last season was more than it has been this year.

Again, I’m not saying it is impossible you are right. I’m merely saying that basing these conclusions on one game — and a game in which Tim struggled mightily with his control, at that — is probably a bit of an overplay. Particularly since guns likely vary slightly from stadium to stadium.

It may have been that the gun was slower on Sunday than it had been on the previous Tuesday when Tim’s opponent, Chris Young, had pitched his first game of the season. According to MLB’s gameday, Chris’ average fastball speed was about 1.5 mph slower on Sunday than in his first start.

You could be right here. But, again, I think you’re using mostly guesswork. I’m looking forward to R.J.’s further analysis.

By: Ed Nelson

Ed Nelson — Thu, 16 Apr 2009 17:50:13 +0000

Because guys who pitched 300 innings did have their careers ruined. You just haven’t heard of them because they pitched, got hurt, and never returned. Look at Dave Ferriss on the 1946 Boston Red Sox. He pitched 274 innings with a record 25-6 with a 3.25 ERA. The next year he missed a few games and was complaining of arm problems and then…poof! His career was over.

There are literally countless other guys who suffered the same fate. They just disappear into the record books and no one bothers to remember what they could have been (although Ferriss is in the Red Sox hall of fame).