Comments on: Time Running Out For Walker http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/time-running-out-for-walker/ Daily baseball statistical analysis and commentary Sun, 12 Feb 2012 21:26:01 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: Roman http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/time-running-out-for-walker/#comment-44124 Roman Thu, 25 Sep 2008 03:14:27 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/time-running-out-for-walker/#comment-44124 His birthday is in Sept, he just turned 23, so technically you both are right... Regardless, I do believe his projection is no longer that of which one hopes to get from a #11 overall pick. However, I believe his switch hitting came about to fit the mold of a switch hitting catching prospect... Can we look at his splits? Could it be time for him to ditch switch hitting since it no longer adds to his potential? The bottom line is he is performing just under league average, and was a first rounder. Did his ability to catch increase his draft slot? He seems to be an example of why many avoid adding value to a prospect solely because he catches. His birthday is in Sept, he just turned 23, so technically you both are right…

Regardless, I do believe his projection is no longer that of which one hopes to get from a #11 overall pick. However, I believe his switch hitting came about to fit the mold of a switch hitting catching prospect… Can we look at his splits? Could it be time for him to ditch switch hitting since it no longer adds to his potential?

The bottom line is he is performing just under league average, and was a first rounder. Did his ability to catch increase his draft slot? He seems to be an example of why many avoid adding value to a prospect solely because he catches.

]]> By: obsessivegiantscompulsive http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/time-running-out-for-walker/#comment-44074 obsessivegiantscompulsive Wed, 24 Sep 2008 21:19:28 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/time-running-out-for-walker/#comment-44074 Nice article. I would note that .694 is the OPS from the batting line above and that if he was drafted from high school and its four years later, he is probably 23 next season. Given that, and that most prospects lose their prospect status at 26, I would think that he has 3-4 more seasons to develop and become an MLB starter, so time is not so much running out as starting to dwindle. In addition, he's only 22 playing in AAA against pitchers who average 27.2 years of age, meaning they on average have 5 more years experience on him, or more than double his years of experience since high school. In addition, the International League is not that offensive-driven as, say, the PCL is, with a league average OPS of .738, which his .694 is not that far off from (about 5% lower). And I don't know how many 22 and younger players are in the lL, but out of the top 100 hitters, there were only 3 22 and younger: Jay Bruce, Asdrubal Cabrera, and fellow Pirate prospect, Andrew McCutchen (FYI, the 100th best hitter had an OPS of .729). Thus, it is pretty hard for a young prospect to reach AAA, so that in itself is an accomplishment for Walker, and then to be near league average (about only 5% away) when facing much more experienced pitchers than he as a batter is another accomplishment. As a sign of his youthfulness, his hitting was all over the place when viewed monthly. However, he gave a hint of the power he has latent in his skills in June when he hit .248/.280/.515/.795, with 7 HR in 101 AB (15 AB/HR) and ISO of 267. Alas, he did not do that well in other months, but in May he did hit .245/.264/.453/.717, with 4 HR in 106 AB (27 AB/HR) and ISO of 208, which is still pretty good power, adequate for 3B, though he would still need to boost his OBP a lot to be considered adequate offensively at 3B. However, in the other months he struggled. At least in his last month (Aug) he got more walks than he had in any other month by a good margin, 10 BB vs. his high of 7 BB (and average of 5) in the other months. His OBP that month was a decent .331, which if he can combine with the power he showed in May/June, would make him a good offensive 3B. But his homer total was 1 or 2 in all the other months, poor totals indeed. He needs to work on being more consistent and on practicing better plate discipline and not striking out so much, plus taking more walks in addition. He has shown success in one or another in a number of months, but needs to put it together and do them all in one month. Nice article. I would note that .694 is the OPS from the batting line above and that if he was drafted from high school and its four years later, he is probably 23 next season. Given that, and that most prospects lose their prospect status at 26, I would think that he has 3-4 more seasons to develop and become an MLB starter, so time is not so much running out as starting to dwindle.

In addition, he’s only 22 playing in AAA against pitchers who average 27.2 years of age, meaning they on average have 5 more years experience on him, or more than double his years of experience since high school.

In addition, the International League is not that offensive-driven as, say, the PCL is, with a league average OPS of .738, which his .694 is not that far off from (about 5% lower).

And I don’t know how many 22 and younger players are in the lL, but out of the top 100 hitters, there were only 3 22 and younger: Jay Bruce, Asdrubal Cabrera, and fellow Pirate prospect, Andrew McCutchen (FYI, the 100th best hitter had an OPS of .729). Thus, it is pretty hard for a young prospect to reach AAA, so that in itself is an accomplishment for Walker, and then to be near league average (about only 5% away) when facing much more experienced pitchers than he as a batter is another accomplishment.

As a sign of his youthfulness, his hitting was all over the place when viewed monthly. However, he gave a hint of the power he has latent in his skills in June when he hit .248/.280/.515/.795, with 7 HR in 101 AB (15 AB/HR) and ISO of 267. Alas, he did not do that well in other months, but in May he did hit .245/.264/.453/.717, with 4 HR in 106 AB (27 AB/HR) and ISO of 208, which is still pretty good power, adequate for 3B, though he would still need to boost his OBP a lot to be considered adequate offensively at 3B.

However, in the other months he struggled. At least in his last month (Aug) he got more walks than he had in any other month by a good margin, 10 BB vs. his high of 7 BB (and average of 5) in the other months. His OBP that month was a decent .331, which if he can combine with the power he showed in May/June, would make him a good offensive 3B. But his homer total was 1 or 2 in all the other months, poor totals indeed.

He needs to work on being more consistent and on practicing better plate discipline and not striking out so much, plus taking more walks in addition. He has shown success in one or another in a number of months, but needs to put it together and do them all in one month.

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