Comments on: To Offer Or Not?

By: Yuri Guiggey

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By: Carlos D. Corredor

Carlos D. Corredor — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 01:55:04 +0000

What I didn’t get was what Al Dimond also mentioned. If the cost of Beltre accepting arbitration ($4M) is divided by two because there’s a 50-50 chance he’ll accept it, then why isn’t the reward of the draft pick ($2) also divided by two (same 50-50 chance)? Could you briefly explain this Dave?

By: mydquin

mydquin — Wed, 02 Dec 2009 13:11:20 +0000

DM is right. Dave’s model is misspecified. The real risk is the weighted difference between the arby settlement and the cost of obtaining Beltre’s expected WAR on the OPEN FA market. At this point Scutaro’s expected WAR is probably just as high as Beltre’s. F. Lopez and J. Uribe are in that ball park too. If Scutaro can be signed for $4MM/yr, then the real risk to the Ms is roughly $4MM = ($12MM – $4MM) * 50%.

By: james

james — Wed, 02 Dec 2009 03:44:46 +0000

You’re right in that they would have to move Beltre before they can look towards their own solutions at third base… or anywhere else for that matter since the ridiculous arbitration award he’ll get will eat in to what they can do at first base and at pitcher. They had to make a Beltre and Bedard decision before they moved on to other decisions. For them the risk of being “stuck” with Beltre for a year wasn’t as bad as losing out on draft-pick compensation.

His market value is only important because if he has no market value you wouldn’t offer him arbitration at all… and you have to know what you’ll have to ship to a team to make up for the difference in his perceived market value and his arbitration award… and also what to ask for in return.

By: james

james — Wed, 02 Dec 2009 03:26:46 +0000

if you ascertain his market value to be nil and his potential arbitration award to be immense, you definitely don’t offer him arbitration… because then it becomes much closer to 100% risk of him accepting.

Only a douchebag of a GM would avoid this process because of the disparity of positive versus negative credit for the move… which is probably why most of the teams in baseball get this wrong.

By: james

james — Wed, 02 Dec 2009 03:22:10 +0000

seems like it’s easier these days with all the ways we can convert a player’s value into $ value and replacement value and all that other junk. If a player asks for and gets a ridiculous amount in arbitration because he can only take so much of a paycut, and that number is way above his market value… there’s an erosion in there somewhere.

By: james

james — Wed, 02 Dec 2009 03:19:03 +0000

yeah… i don’t think you’re factoring in the value in trade they’d get for assuming the difference in his market value and what he got in arbitration… which would go up the more of the difference they take on. It might not be the same value as a 25-35 pick, could be more or less, but there is still value there.

By: The Hit Dog

The Hit Dog — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 19:56:22 +0000

Yup, Wagner will be offered arb. He has stated publicly that he wants to be somewhere where he can close, thus severely limiting the risk that he will accept a 1-year deal as a set-up man.

By: ajs340

ajs340 — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 16:56:43 +0000

Also so many of the “Type A” guys are not truly franchise players. For example: Bengie Molina, Octavio Dotel, Darren Oliver. When you’re considering those guys, yes, the reward in terms of draft picks may be high, but they’re not going to turn down arbitration when it’s fairly likely their services won’t nearly be valued enough by other teams to make them worth giving up the draft pick to sign.