Tony Campana: Not-So-Princely Cub
Tony Campana will never be confused with Prince Fielder. As a matter of fact, outside of being left-handed hitters, the two couldn’t more different. For Cubs fans who dreamed of having Fielder in their lineup, that isn’t exactly a good thing.
Why compare a diminutive spare outfielder to a behemoth free agent who was a long shot to come to Chicago in the first place? Because — despite the hiring of Theo Epstein — that is who the Cubs are right now. Campana doesn’t hit home runs, and you won’t see Epstein swinging for the fences any time soon.
Theo is smart enough to know that quick fixes aren’t what the Cubs need. His plan is to build from the ground up — you might want to caution your youngster not to get too attached to that Matt Garza poster hanging in his or her bedroom — which brings us back to Campana.
You aren’t going build a team around a soon-to-be-26-year-old player whose only above-average tool is speed — even if it’s blinding speed. Campana can flat-out fly — a scout queried for this article called him an 80 runner — but he also has just one home run in more than 1,400 professional plate appearances, and it was of the inside-the-park variety. At 5-foot-8 and 165 pounds, Campana could fit neatly into Fielder‘s back pocket — a pocket loaded with $214 million, money the Cubs would have been unwise to invest in one player given their current circumstances.
Called up last year in mid-May, Campana hit .259/.303/.301 in 155 plate appearances, and je stole 24 bases in 26 attempts. During parts of four minor-league seasons he hit .303/.359/.353, with 144 steals. He has value, but it‘s limited.
According to the scout, Campana “has a chance to be better than a 4A guy, but he will have a tough time sticking as a true fourth outfielder for a championship club.”
In other words, Campana is indicative of the current state of Epstein’s Cubs. He’s not a bad player — given a full-time job, maybe he’s Juan Pierre — but he’s also a stopgap until the team can be rebuilt. That’s going to take time, and whether the fans like it or not, 2012 won’t be about home runs. It will be about long-term planning, and guys like Tony Campana.
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Campana recently shared his thoughts on the arrival of Epstein, his role on the team, and what it takes to win at Wrigley Field.
Campana on Epstein: “Theo is making us a little younger, and at the same time, he’s trying to bring in more of a winning culture. He’s bringing in guys who are high energy. All of the old Chicago Cubs losing is something he’s throwing out the back door. It’s a new age in Chicago now.
“Theo is a big-name guy — he’s almost like a rock star — who turned things around in Boston. Everybody knows what he can do. Everybody says that winning is a lot easier when you have Theo Epstein on your side. I think the culture is definitely changing, and a lot of that has to do with him. When he got here, everybody got really excited.”
On his role going into the season: “As a player, you go out there and try to show everybody what you can do, and Theo has made it where there is going to be competition at every position. That’s what you want. You want to compete for a job.
“We brought in Dale Sveum as our new manager, and he’s a guy who likes to play small ball. He knows that the team we have is going to have to play small ball, because we’re not going to hit a whole lot of home runs. That fits in perfectly with me, because I’m definitely not going to hit a lot of home runs. I can steal bags, though. I can bunt and play defense.
“If you look at our team last year, we made a lot of errors; we made more errors than any team in the major leagues. I think you have to put a focus on defense, in the outfield and definitely up the middle. Not concentrating on defense will definitely lose you some games.”
On Wrigley Field: “We pack the house every day. We also have the day game thing, which makes it a little more fun. It’s like a little outdoor bar. The fans are loud. They’re going to cheer you when you’re doing good, and they’re going to boo you when you’re doing bad.
“I think that Wrigley is actually kind of a horrible hitter’s park. I bet that on seven days out of ten, the wind is blowing in. When the wind is blowing out, it’s unbelievable. You can hit a home run on a pop fly. But most of the time the wind is blowing in, so you have to keep the ball out of the air. I think it’s a ballpark more conducive to the speed game.
“You have to get guys who fit your ballpark, not just big boppers. [The Cubs] went out and got Alfonso Soriano, who the year before had stolen close to 50 bags, but he hasn’t done that since. You have to get some guys who can steal some bags and run a little bit; guys who can play defense and do all the little things right. You can’t just have guys trying to hit home runs.”
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Campana is the homeless man’s Brett Gardner.
Is he really that bad? I mean his WAR/650 last year was 6.2! Obviously he’s not going to do that over a full year, but is projecting him as a 3-4 win player that absurd? If he ups that OBP by 20 points and steals 60 bases with +10-15 fielding, that’s a pretty valuable asset. Yeah, he’s no Prince, and he’s not someone to build a team around, but it seems like he’s better than a 4A player.
Campana’s WAR is artificially inflated by his pinch running opportunities (his 24 steals pro-rated over 675 PA’s gives you about 104 stolen bases, prorated by games over 150 games only gives you 38), and by UZR (unless they’ve changed it since I last checked) not taking into account the runs his throwing arm gives up. He’s not a 50 run over average outfielder, so there’s some sample size error in there too.
Juan Pierre at his peak was a pretty good ball player (again, noodle arm not accounted for), but he had a lot better contact skills, and more pop than Campana. Campana doesn’t have the strength and hand-eye coordination to get a .335 OBP over the course of a season.
I get the feeling that he’s not a very bright guy.
“I can bunt…”
Eh, Tony:
http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=16245467
Sure, can run though. He might be somewhat interesting if his OBP was even 20 points lower than it was in the minors.
Pujols can call himself the greatest hitter ever, but I can show you a video of him striking out.
what’s your point
So that proves that Pujols wasn’t the greatest hitter ever. Can you show me video of Babe Ruth striking out?
Isn’t there video of Carl Hubbell striking out Ruth in the ASG?
Fielder can eat.
So what?
So you’re saying I should cover up this Matt Garza tatoo with a Tony Campana tattoo, then?
Man….
True story – I’ve seen him beat out a routine grounder to second
You know that negro league story where Josh Gibson hit a home run in Boston, and it landed in the outfield stands in New York the next day? Word has it, Campana is so fast that he actually ran the opposite direction the earth turns back in time to that very day and made a HR robbing catch on the wall.
Wish the Cubs could utilize his speed. He’s our version of Lorenzo Cain in KC, and as you can see he can’t even break their lineup.
Willie Wilson, Ron Leflore, Vince Coleman, even Juan Pierre. All super fast guys that are kind of one dimensional, but fun to watch!
LeFlore had some pop – he wasn’t completely one-dimensional. Pretty good offensive player for a couple of years.
yeah, but there are one-dimensional HR types too. Rob Deer, Pete Inkev.. heck, not even gonna try to spell Inky’s last name, Gorman Thomas, and many others. So he isnt a slugger 1dimensional type..
Taking a quick look at it, Campana had 7 steals as a PR leaving him with 17 steals in 155 PA.
Small sample size but extrapolated to 550 abs would leave him at just over 60 steals if he played a full season holding everything else constant. He attempted a steal 40% of the time he reached 1st base at a 93% success rate.
For reference, Michael Bourne attempted steals 37% of the time he reached 1st base at an 81% success rate and the MLB average attempts a steal approximately 10% of the time a player reaches first base and have approximately a 70% success rate.
At age 25 (Bourne’s first year as a starter), he had a .229 BA/.288 OBA/.300 SLG. I’m not saying Campana will turn ino Bourn as Campana probably will never get to Bourne’s walk rate or slugging percentage but if he can get to that 330 OBA he could be a valuable player.
Attached is an interesting article on the increasing value of steals in the post steriod era.
Ihttp://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/writers/joe_sheehan/06/09/stolen.bases/index.html
Campana’s stolen base percentage in the big’s last year is as about as sustainable as his .433 BABIP from his time in Iowa.
At the end of the day he’s going to have to be the greatest BABIP hitter ever, decrease his strikeouts significantly or improve his walk rate to get to even a .330 OBP. The upper body muscle he would need to add to become a legitimate hitter will probably slow him down some (though maybe give him better arm strenght as a defender).
But if he really has an 80 speed, a BABIP of .400 isn’t ridiculous. Amazingly above average speed challenges a lot of traditionally reasonable statistical assumptions.
I think his ridiculous above average BABIP is more reasonable to expect than a 20pt jump in OBP, since more scouting opportunities means more holes that will be found in his zone. IMO, he’ll always be a spectacular pinch runner and very good defensive sub, but nothing more. In other words, a GREAT 5th OF.
I find it hilarious the comments I read on various articles mentioning Tony Campana. It is as if the same individuals who claim they have all the answers also have a crystal ball that the rest of us are not afforded. My quick take is that these same individuals with all the answers would quickly bankrupt a MLB team because of their lack of judgement… Swinging for the fences and acquiring players like Fielder, Pujols, etc makes sense in certain situations but can anyone argue that the ARod deal was overall a waste of a lot of money.
As far as Campana is concerned… He is what he is. Yes, he is small, and yes he can fly. Will you build your outfield around him, no, but you also don’t dismiss a player because he does not hit homeruns. The value you get in a Camapana type player is more than numbers (well sort of)… He is cheap, he hussles every single play, he is a positive person to have in the locker room, and he makes others around him better. Very few athletes can hit a ground ball to second and beat out an infield single. As far as slugging percentage, of course it is not going to be high, but if you could factor in his stolen bases into slugging percentage then (OMG)… Another thing that you will routinely see is OBP and people wanting this to be higher and for Campana to be more selective at the plate. Part of that is true and the other part is bogus. Put yourself in a MLB Pitchers perspective… Why would you through pitches that were not obvious strikes to a player like campana. He will not hit it out of the yard often, if ever, so the pitchers are able to go right at him. His opportunity to increase his OBP relies solely on him getting base hits, putting the ball in play and beating out ground balls, and getting his strike out numbers down (which i think he will do). But very few players can cause that much havoc to opposing teams on routine plays (which overall makes him a valuable asset).
Personally I wish him the best. He is incredibly fun to watch. Will he be a Cubs for years to come. My guess is no, and that is purely because the cubs have deeper pockets than a lot of clubs and they can afford other players, but I seriously doubt Campana is going to be a guy that fades away from the MLB any time soon.
God Speed Tony…. And no matter what you read on all these post, know that you are a better athlete than all these idiots writing remarks about your level of play.