Top 10 Prospects: The Arizona Diamondbacks
The Arizona Diamondbacks
2010 MLB Record: 65-97 (fifth place, NL West)
Minor League Power Ranking: 10th (out of 30)
Click for: Last Year’s Top 10 Prospect List
The Prospects
1. Jarrod Parker, RHP
Acquired: 2007 1st round (Indiana HS)
Pro Experience: 4 seasons
2010 MiLB Level: Injured
Opening Day Age: 22
Estimated Peak WAR: 5.5
Notes: Parker remains the top prospect in the system despite missing all of 2010 while rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. The 22-year-old hurler still has No. 1 starter potential and the organization expects his stuff to rebound to pre-surgery levels. He throws a mid-90s fastball and rounds out his four-pitch repertoire with a plus slider, curveball and changeup. Parker looks a little smaller on the mound than 6’1” but he has a sturdy frame. He has a low three-quarter arm slot and a fairly smooth delivery. After an encouraging instructional league, Parker should open 2011 in double-A or triple-A and could be in the Majors by the end of the season.
2. Tyler Skaggs, LHP
Acquired: 2009 supplemental 1st round (California HS)
Pro Experience: 2 seasons
2010 MiLB Level: A-
Opening Day Age: 19
Estimated Peak WAR: 4.0
Notes: Arizona acquired Skaggs last season during the Dan Haren swap. The young lefty has the potential to develop into a No. 2 or 3 starter. Skaggs spent 2010 in low-A ball and showed excellent control, while also missing a good number of bats. He posted a 3.07 FIP in 82.1 innings prior to the trade. Skaggs then pitched another 16.0 innings after the trade at the same level. It appears as though he may produce above-average ground-ball rates if the current trend continues through the upper levels of the minors and into the Majors. Skaggs has an 88-92 mph fastball, a curveball and a changeup. I’m a little surprised that he shows the control that he does; he doesn’t have the best balance in his delivery and follow through. Skaggs throws across his body, with some effort. He’ll open 2011 in high-A ball as a teenager so the club will likely be cautious with him.
3. Matt Davidson, 3B
Acquired: 2009 supplemental 1st round (California HS)
Pro Experience: 2 seasons
2010 MiLB Level: A-/A+
Opening Day Age: 20
Estimated Peak WAR: 5.0
Notes: The organization did an outstanding job of taking advantage of multiple picks during its 2009 draft haul. Unlike a lot of clubs in similar situations, the club did not go cheap or shy away from high-ceiling players. Davidson was nabbed out of a California HS and has posted solid pro numbers so far. In 2010, he had a triple-slash line of .289/.371/.504 in 415 at-bats. He showed a solid eye at the plate and posted a walk rate of 9.1 BB%. Davidson does strike out a lot (26.3 K%) but he does show good power (.214 ISO) which helps compensate for the high rate. His stance is fairly quiet. He has a wide base and takes a small stride. The majority of his power is generated above the waist by his good bat speed, and quick wrists. The organization promoted Davidson to high-A at the end of the season and he played in 21 games at that level but looked a little overmatched (.269 wOBA). Defensively, he doesn’t have great range but he has a strong arm and solid hands. He should return to that level for 2011.
4. Chris Owings, SS
Acquired: 2009 supplemental 1st round (South Carolina HS)
Pro Experience: 2 seasons
2010 MiLB Level: A-
Opening Day Age: 19
Estimated Peak WAR: 4.0
Notes: Owings was another ’09 prep draft pick that has impressed in pro ball. In 2010, he hit .294/.320/.443 in 255 at-bats. He’s a little too aggressive for his own good and posted a walk rate of just 3.3 BB%. His strikeout rate sat at 19.6 K%, which was high for a player with modest power (.149 ISO). Owings has solid speed but he attempted just four steals in 2010, which lowers his value a bit as he also projects to have so-so power at the MLB level (10-12 homers per season). Like teammate Davidson, Owings has a pretty quiet stance with a wide base and small stride. Defensively, he’s shown enough skill at shortstop to stay at the position thanks to good range and a solid arm. Owings should move up to high-A in 2011 and won’t turn 20 until August.
5. Marc Krauss, OF
Acquired: 2009 2nd round (Ohio University)
Pro Experience: 2 seasons
2010 MiLB Level: A+
Opening Day Age: 23
Estimated Peak WAR: 4.0
Notes: Krauss is… yet another ’09 draft pick populating the Top 10 list, which also gives you an idea of how empty the system was prior to the re-stocking. The first college draft pick on the list, he’ll likely open 2011 in double-A after a solid ’10 season in a hitter’s league. Krauss hit .302/.371/.509 in 530 at-bats and showed good power (.208 ISO). He has shown pretty good patience in his young career (9.6 BB% in ’10) but he does strike out at a high rate (26.6 K%). Krauss can get pull happy. The outfielder is limited to left field due to his lack of range and modest arm strength. He’s going to have to watch his conditioning. Because of a strong Arizona Fall League (.412 wOBA in 22 games), Krauss may not spend much time in double-A before moving up to triple-A or the Majors.
6. Bobby Borchering, 1B/3B
Acquired: 2009 1st round (Florida HS)
Pro Experience: 2 seasons
2010 MiLB Level: A-
Opening Day Age: 20
Estimated Peak WAR: 3.5
Notes: Along with Matt Davidson, Borchering was another prep third baseman taking prior to the second round of the ’09 draft. Although taken first, the latter prospect has been a little slower to development and his defensive woes at the hot corner will likely necessitate a permanent move to first base. Borchering has raw power potential (.153 ISO in ’09) but it doesn’t show up consistently in games. Overall, he hit .268/.339/.421 in 523 at-bats in low-A ball. On the plus side, he does show patience at the plate (9.2 BB%). His strikeout rate was high at 24.5 K% but not out of line for a power hitter. He has a well-balanced stance at the plate and a quick bat. He still has room to fill out his frame.
7. Pat Corbin, LHP
Acquired: 2009 2nd round (Florida JC)
Pro Experience: 2 seasons
2010 MiLB Level: A-/A+
Opening Day Age: 21
Estimated Peak WAR: 3.5
Notes: Another part of the Dan Haren trade with Los Angeles (AL), Corbin projects as a potential No. 3 starter. The southpaw has a solid three-pitch mix with an 88-92 mph fastball, slider, and changeup. He produces average to slightly-above-average ground-ball rates. Corbin split the 2010 season between low-A and high-A ball and actually produced better strikeout rates as he moved up the ladder, but his control took a hit. He showed his durability – despite a slender frame – by pitching more than 140 innings. After coming over in the trade, Corbin pitched just 26 innings but posted a 2.43 FIP. He has a low-three-quarter arm slot and a fairly smooth delivery.
8. Wade Miley, LHP
Acquired: 2008 supplemental 1st round (Southeasern Louisiana U)
Pro Experience: 3 seasons
2010 MiLB Level: A+/AA
Opening Day Age: 24
Estimated Peak WAR: 3.0
Notes: One of my favorite sleeper picks of the ’08 draft, Miley doesn’t have a huge ceiling (No. 4 starter) but he’s one of the top pitchers in the upper levels of the system. His stuff has fluctuated wildly during his pro career, but he flashes above-average velocity for a left-hander and his heater occasionally hits the mid-90s but he sits more in the 89-93 mph range. He has a diverse repertoire, which includes a curveball, slider, changeup and cutter. Despite his good velocity, Miley does not strike out many batters – his K/9 rates sat at 5.60 in high-A and 7.80 in double-A last season. He also struggles with his command and control. After spending half of the ’09 season in double-A with respectable results 3.56 FIP in 72.2 innings), the southpaw should move up to triple-A in 2011.
9. Mike Belfiore, LHP
Acquired: 2009 supplemental 1st round (Boston College)
Pro Experience: 2 seasons
2010 MiLB Level: A-
Opening Day Age: 22
Estimated Peak WAR: 3.0
Notes: Belfiore isn’t going to appear on many Top 10 lists for the D-backs, but he’s a personal favorite of mine. He had a so-so season in 2010 at low-A, which is a little discouraging given that he’s a former draft pick out of a college program. I’m expecting big things out of Belfiore in 2011… and only time will tell if I’m right. The lefty has a strong pitcher’s frame and tossed 126.1 innings in 2010 while posting a 3.18 FIP (His ERA sat at 4.35). He showed solid control with a walk rate of 2.99 BB/9 and a modest strikeout rate of 7.48 K/9. His ground-ball rate was average in ’10 but he has a history of producing above-average worm-burning rates. Belfiore was a closer in college, so he’s still adjusting to life as a starting pitcher; Toronto had a lot of luck converting college closers to starters, including David Bush and Shaun Marcum. Value-wise, I can see Belfiore fitting in comfortably between those two pitchers (ie. a No. 3 or 4 starter in his prime). His repertoire includes a low-90s fastball, good changeup and an inconsistent breaking ball.
10. Keon Broxton, OF
Acquired: 2009 3rd round (Florida JC)
Pro Experience: 2 seasons
2010 MiLB Level: A-
Opening Day Age: 20
Estimated Peak WAR: 4.0
Notes: Broxton edges out first baseman Paul Goldschmidt for the final spot on the Top 10 prospect list for Arizona thanks to his athleticism and high upside. Because he’s so raw, Broxton is definitely going to be a long-term project. He reminds me a little bit of D-backs outfielder Chris Young, but with less raw power. The young prospect, 21 in May, hit just .228/.316/.360 in 531 at-bats in low-A ball in 2010. He could return to the same level to begin 2011 or move up to the better hitter’s league at the high-A level. Broxton needs to improve his pitch recognition, which will help trim his massive strikeout rates (32.4 K%). On the positive side, he does have some patience at walked at a rate of 10.8 BB%. He used his good speed to hit 19 triples and steal 21 bases (although he was caught 13 times) in ’10. He utilizes his speed in center field to help make up for miss-reads off the bat. With experience, Broxton should be able to stick in center but may have the arm (and future power) for right field.
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Good writeups, Marc. You’re right – this system has grown thanks to the 2009 Draft (even though they went after fairly safe, signable guys at the top) & also the Danny Haren deal. I’m not as high on Chris Owings as you & many others, but I think your list is well done. I am intrigued to see Jarrod Parker this year also as he should move quickly. I’m high on Matt Davidson as well & wouldn’t be surprised to see him settle in as a Matt Williams type (big, not super athletic CI middle of the order force) when he fulfills his potential. The power is very real & his plate discipline is already pretty good – he’s well past Bobby Borchering at this point. I think both end up at 1b though ultimately although at least Davidson has a fighting chance to stick.
I would go:
1) Parker
2) Davidson
3) Tyler Skaggs
4) Patrick Corbin
5) Borchering
6) Keon Broxton (tools galore – 19 3bs)
7) Wade Miley (have liked him for awhile as well)
8) Paul Goldschmidt
9) Patrick Schuster (Projectable – not unlike Corbin actually)
10) Marc Krauss (not sure he’s a regular – maybe a poor man’s Matt Stairs at best – just in over AJ Pollock who had a nice AFL performance & Owings)
You’re a bit too high on Schuster. His delivery and wind-up need refining in order to improve his currently-spotty control, which is too much of a work in progress right now to keep him ranked ahead of guys like Holmberg, Pollock, and certainly Owings.
Their farm has the potential to be much scarier too when you consider the fact that they have two top 10 picks in the upcoming draft.
Umm… Chris Young is still the D-backs’ center fielder. He’s not a former outfielder by any means.
toronto also converted Brett Cecil from closer to starter
Right, sorry… meant former White Sox (team that drafted him) prospect.
Would it really be smart to have Parker in the majors by the end of the year? His stuff and command will probably play down a bit in his first year back from TJ and it’s not like the Dbacks are going to look real competitive this year. Why would you rush him?
Because he hit 98 mph in Instructs and his stuff isn’t going to play down this year?
The Dbacks system is promising and could be right near the top by next year’s rankings. The big league club is struggling, but they have some talent coming up in a couple years.
Once again — it’s Ohio University — not the “University of Ohio”
We already went over this last season.
Right on.
And can you please list the actual HS in Florida, not Florida HS. Without this amount of detail the article is useless.
I would argue that the region is more important than the actual school.
That’s a bit of a stretch. And by “bit of a stretch,” I mean “factually incorrect.”
I must enjoy (subconsciously, of course) pissing you off.
Some of you are nuts. This system is in the 20′s still. They lack depth. If they don’t go cheap on one of their high picks, yes there could be a big bump, but this system has a lot of work to do.
There are a ton of Keon Broxton types in baseball. He is still an athlete that hasn’t figured out how to play baseball yet.
They have a couple of huge tools outfielders besides Broxton, including Ty Linton, who they gave $1.4 mil to last year to keep away from North Carolina. I at least agree that it’s not a top 10 system, though.
Yes, I agree – I think they’re somewhere between 15th & 20th at best. Not a lot of uber high ceiling guys. No way I would have slotted them ahead of Colorado &/or Cleveland to name but a couple.
At least it’s serviceable now as it was pretty barren in early 2009.
Still trying to figure out why everyone likes Krauss better than Goldschmidt.
Same age.
Neither can play defense.
Both K too often for comfort — 141 vs. 161.
They both drew 57 BB last season.
Yet one had 110 extra points of OPS, and he’s the lower rated prospect?
I’m with you & I had Goldschmidt pegged a bit higher on my list above for many of the reasons that you namecheck here.
Supposedly his swing is smoother/better. Which, I suppose, is why reviews from the AFL said “slow bat” and his LD Rate last year stunk.
I’m with you as well.
BP also rips Goldschmidt for his “massive uppercut” swing.
I must be missing something…
http://vimeo.com/12378914
I have to get this out. Rankings the Diamondbacks 10th is really odd to me. Jarrod Parker is the only legit projected All Star type in this system. You have systems like Seattle that can boast 3 guys at the top in Pineda, Franklin, and Ackley who have that potential, and Seattle doesn’t lack depth either. There are some big time upside guys like Pimentel, Castillo, and James Jones. I would take the teams you have listed 11-18 for sure over Arizona.
What are you guys seeing?
Its a legit question to spur some debate on this, not just trying to be a jerk.
Skaggs is a #2 guy, Davidson is a well-above-average everyday 3B, Owings has a better chance of sticking at SS than Franklin (with potential for a plus bat as well), and while there are plenty of tools guys in the minors, most of them are inferior to Broxton. There’s plenty of depth here, too, despite the strange rumblings here to the contrary.
I wouldn’t put it at #10 either, but it certainly belongs in the teens.
I don’t have issue with them being in the back half of the teens. Franklin’s bat is more of a sure thing than Owings in my opinion, and it has the upside to play at 3B if he doesn’t stick at SS. Athleticism isn’t an issue with Franklin either by any means, so at this point I gotta go with Franklin right now.
A guy nobody talks about with the Mariners is Mauricio Robles. I watched him extensively. He is filthy. He does have trouble with command, but he has at least mid rotation potential, maybe with a little more.
Basically when Im looking at top 30, and from going to games, and reading all the scouting reports, the D Backs system is getting better, it just doesn’t match up to me with other teams this high.
I looked up Keith Law’s org rankings and he has ARZ at 14 and I think BA is around the same too but I can reference their handbook tonight to check… The organization has a lot of high-ceiling talent in the Top 10… and some intriguing depth. I’m comfortable with where I ranked them. It’s definitely weighted more on projection than “proven” results.
I really don’t like Seattle’s depth and their high-ceiling, high-bust prospects have a lot more holes in their game than Arizon’s from my personal opinion and observation.
As for Krauss vs Goldschmidt, the former has a tad more positional value and also looked pretty good in the AFL. Despite it being small-sample, he’s a little more proven against the better pitching. From watching both, I think Krauss has a better idea at the plate than Goldschmidt. I don’t think Klaw, Goldstein or BA had these guys flipped in their rankings, either, so it’s pretty much a consensus.
Keith Law & Kevin Goldstein liked Krauss better than Goldschmidt?
Well, I guess that’s that.. I mean they were all so high on Brandon Belt last year.
Krauss and Broxton are WAYYYYYYYY tooo high.
Pretty much all the well-respected scouting/ranking publications and writers would disagree but you’re welcome to your opinion.
I love that you supported your opinion with evidence.
Want some evidence? Keon Broxton struck out in well over 30% of his at bats. While he did show some plate discipline, his OPS was. 675. Not exactly flashing above average power either. He is 6’3″, so the assumption from the scouting perspective is that he is going to fill out a little more and add some pop, hopefully while not taking away from his athleticism. He did steal 21 bases, though he was caught 13 times. All this while playing at 20 years old in Low A.
Lets compare Broxton to another young athlete in the same league. On a team ranked 28th here by fangraphs. Detroit’s Avisail Garcia. Garcia played the league at 19 years old. Struck out about 10% less, stole 20 bases, was caught only 4 times, Garcia is already a big dude, and still has maintained the athleticism. The power, like Broxton, hasn’t come yet, but its expected to. Oh, and Garcia is a plus defender as well.
See, every team has these type of players.
Not to be a jerk (but I am about to be, though I feel it’s slightly warranted), but I love that you felt the need to be snarky to a random commenter for no apparent reason, especially after saying (rightly so) that he’s entitled to his opinion.
There absolutely are arguments for putting Krauss and Broxton lower.
Krauss’ LD-Rate was terrible this year – check Jeff Sackmann’s data or StatCorner, and get back to me on whether or not he’ll sustain a .366 BABIP in the upper levels. Even though he put up numbers in the AFL, he got off to a terrible start there, and his bat is commonly perceived as quite slow. His wOBA+ for the Rawhide was 107 (StatCorner.com), and once the hit distribution peripherals come back to earth, he doesn’t have defensive value to fall back on. We could be looking at the next Cyle Hankerd here.
As for Broxton, he clearly needs to do a ton of work. The fact that he played in South Bend is a point in his favor, as his overall numbers weren’t exactly devastatingly low compared to league average, but the K-Rate is inexcusable, particularly since he lost the home run power he flashed in 2009 at Missoula.
What you need to do, though, is grasp the ideal of projection. If you listen to the scouts and watch Broxton play, there is definite skill there and his ceiling is massive if he makes adjustments. Yes, Garcia is a similar player. I don’t personally like him as much but I would rank him in the 11-13 range for Tiger prospects. If you want to nitpick on him, though, from a stats standpoint, he benefited from a high BABIP and, although, his strikeout rate is lower, he has less patience and has less power (ISO below .100). Broxton has high Ks but also high BBs. If he can, through experience, gain better pitch recognition and stay back on the off-speed stuff, he should improve significantly. Pitch recognition, I would argue, is easier to correct than impatience.
I have a firm ideal of projection. What you need to do is relax when someone brings something to the table that doesnt agree with your guys’ predictions. You see, I’m not your average fan, Im very aware of projection, and Broxton’s athleticism. I know he played in South Bend, because I’ve watched him, along with Borchering and Davidson, and I can assure you I’ve seen plenty of players with Broxton’s skill set and projection come through the midwest league. That doesn’t mean he isn’t a talent, it just means he doesn’t have the ability to translate his athleticism to baseball skills on a day to day basis right now. Much like Garcia, though Garcia does it a little more often, even with the lack of patience.
The Diamondbacks have 4 or 5 big time power bats, a handful of big upside guys (not unusual), and beyond Parker and Skaggs, a bunch of pedestrian pitching. Its not a top 10 system. Last years draft was pretty well known for being pretty darn subpar, and that would include Loux if they had signed them. That was the best thing they did. Rowland and J.R. Bradley may have some projection on their frames, but neither is exactly a prospect that wow’s anybody yet.
I get these system rankings are subjective. Just you guys are clearly higher on the D Backs, than a lot of guys. Just wondering why.
By the way, Baseball America has the D Backs ranked as the 22nd best system.
For what it’s worth, the D-backs have a decent amount of lower-level pitching depth. Holmberg, Bradley, Rowland, Green, Perry, and Schuster all have solid upsides, and Brewer, Anderson, and Smith are impressive in their own rites (particularly Brewer).
I am familiar with those guys. Until Bradley and Rowland get some mph on their fastballs, they are going to struggle a bit. They are big kids, so they have that chance. I like Green. He to me, along with Linton were the best picks the D Backs made in the draft last year.
Holmberg is another ho hum lefty to me.
The Diamondbacks are an organization right now that have the potential to take off. I will agree to that.
Nice write ups. I agree with most of it except Mike Belfiore. I saw him pitch for South Bend and was disappointed. He wasn’t impressive at all. If any pitcher from South Bend should get on this list it should be Kevin Munson. Granted, he is a little older than a lot of players in that league but he has pretty good stuff. I wouldn’t be surprised if he had a spot in the Diamondbacks bullpen in a couple years. Hopefully I am wrong about Belfiore and he develops into a good player but I don’t see him as a top 10 prospect at this time.
I have to laugh sometimes when I read these boards. How often are these assessments even close to the way things really pan out? Guys that are dissed can become stars and guys that are exalted can also fall flat. Still I guess the fun is in the guessing, but as much as we all might like it, success is not always predictable, otherwise scouts wouldn’t face the challenges that they do. Have fun as long as you don’t have too much pride about accuracy. :)
Your list should have included Goldschmidt. He just was the first one called up out of all your prospects.
Time to revise this list!
I am amused that no one on this thread has mentioned Josh Collmenter, who zoomed up to become the D’backs third-best starter. Can he sustain that production with an 87 mph fastball? When you factor in a drop-dead change, decent curve and excellent command – not to mention that tomahawk delivery – I see a very useful guy who can be at least a solid fourth starter for years to come.