Comments on: Toronto Blue Jays, Now With Less Hurt http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/toronto-blue-jays-now-with-less-hurt/ Daily baseball statistical analysis and commentary Fri, 19 Mar 2010 22:06:09 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.2 hourly 1 By: tangotiger http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/toronto-blue-jays-now-with-less-hurt/#comment-32848 tangotiger Tue, 22 Apr 2008 14:33:00 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/toronto-blue-jays-now-with-less-hurt/#comment-32848 When in doubt, always believe in a continuous function, rather than a "falling off the cliff". It's less sexy, but it's also more true. Click on my name, and then go to the very bottom, and you will see what the chart looks like. It's based on limited sample size, obviously. But the decline does accelerate the older you get. I also have <a href="http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/article/basic_aging_curve_for_hitters_1957_2006/" rel="nofollow">this chart</a> which you may prefer. When in doubt, always believe in a continuous function, rather than a “falling off the cliff”. It’s less sexy, but it’s also more true.

Click on my name, and then go to the very bottom, and you will see what the chart looks like. It’s based on limited sample size, obviously. But the decline does accelerate the older you get.

I also have this chart which you may prefer.

]]> By: Richard http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/toronto-blue-jays-now-with-less-hurt/#comment-32813 Richard Mon, 21 Apr 2008 22:41:53 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/toronto-blue-jays-now-with-less-hurt/#comment-32813 I believe Keith Law in a post on Primer cleared up the monetary issue. Toronto owes him all his money for 2008. The 2009 option is null and void. He can be signed for MLB minimum by any organization for 2008. I have a question for you Tango. Is the usual aging pattern for a player of this age to suddenly fall off a cliff or hit a wall and become essentially useless as the Jays are intimating? My understanding ( perhaps by reading your Book Blog) was that players lost 3-5% of their ability per year after reaching their peak. Does this speed up after 40? Thomas was an above average hitter last year ( +21.4 Btn runs). His peak was about + 70 runs. He's have to suddenly loose 30% of his peak value merely to become an average hitter. Is this the normal progression barring injury, to suddenly turn into a pumpkin. Thanks. Can you direct me to any research on this matter? I believe Keith Law in a post on Primer cleared up the monetary issue. Toronto owes him all his money for 2008. The 2009 option is null and void. He can be signed for MLB minimum by any organization for 2008.

I have a question for you Tango. Is the usual aging pattern for a player of this age to suddenly fall off a cliff or hit a wall and become essentially useless as the Jays are intimating? My understanding ( perhaps by reading your Book Blog) was that players lost 3-5% of their ability per year after reaching their peak. Does this speed up after 40? Thomas was an above average hitter last year ( +21.4 Btn runs). His peak was about + 70 runs. He’s have to suddenly loose 30% of his peak value merely to become an average hitter. Is this the normal progression barring injury, to suddenly turn into a pumpkin.

Thanks. Can you direct me to any research on this matter?

]]> By: tangotiger http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/toronto-blue-jays-now-with-less-hurt/#comment-32810 tangotiger Mon, 21 Apr 2008 21:15:26 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/toronto-blue-jays-now-with-less-hurt/#comment-32810 David, can you explain how the releasing works. Normally, a player is guaranteed his salary. So, does this mean that Thomas will earn whatever he's supposed to earn for the rest of this season? But, if a team picks him up prior to some waiver period, the Jays contract remains in force? And, if they wait until after the waiver period, they get to sign him to a new contract (but the Jays contract still remains in force, to get his guaranteed money)? The way it's being written about, it seems more like a non-guaranteed NFL-style release. David, can you explain how the releasing works. Normally, a player is guaranteed his salary. So, does this mean that Thomas will earn whatever he’s supposed to earn for the rest of this season?

But, if a team picks him up prior to some waiver period, the Jays contract remains in force? And, if they wait until after the waiver period, they get to sign him to a new contract (but the Jays contract still remains in force, to get his guaranteed money)?

The way it’s being written about, it seems more like a non-guaranteed NFL-style release.

]]> By: MrIncognito http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/toronto-blue-jays-now-with-less-hurt/#comment-32767 MrIncognito Mon, 21 Apr 2008 00:32:19 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/toronto-blue-jays-now-with-less-hurt/#comment-32767 It will be interesting to see where he ends up. If Minnesota decides the Central looks winnable, he would be a big upgrade for them. I would say Seattle could use him, but that condemns their fans to a season of watching Ibanez in the OF, and even though I'm an A's fan I can't wish that kind of hurt on anyone. Maybe he's willing to play 1B and the Giants want another 40 year old HOFer. It will be interesting to see where he ends up. If Minnesota decides the Central looks winnable, he would be a big upgrade for them. I would say Seattle could use him, but that condemns their fans to a season of watching Ibanez in the OF, and even though I’m an A’s fan I can’t wish that kind of hurt on anyone. Maybe he’s willing to play 1B and the Giants want another 40 year old HOFer.

]]> By: Dave Cameron http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/toronto-blue-jays-now-with-less-hurt/#comment-32758 Dave Cameron Sun, 20 Apr 2008 21:01:45 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/toronto-blue-jays-now-with-less-hurt/#comment-32758 I'd expect that Thomas will ask for a potential two year deal, actually - that's where the bidding war would come from. He'll almost certainly sign for the league minimum for the remainder of 2008, but since there figure to be several teams interested, he's got some leverage to ask for some guaranteed money in 2009. He probably won't get a high base contract for next year, but he's got enough left to ask for several million guaranteed in 2009 with incentives that could make the deal worth something similar to what his vesting option would have paid him. So, for instance, I'm guessing he'll sign a one year deal with a club option for 2009 for $5 million (with escalators that push it to a potential of $10 million) and a $2 million buyout. Or something like that. I’d expect that Thomas will ask for a potential two year deal, actually – that’s where the bidding war would come from. He’ll almost certainly sign for the league minimum for the remainder of 2008, but since there figure to be several teams interested, he’s got some leverage to ask for some guaranteed money in 2009. He probably won’t get a high base contract for next year, but he’s got enough left to ask for several million guaranteed in 2009 with incentives that could make the deal worth something similar to what his vesting option would have paid him.

So, for instance, I’m guessing he’ll sign a one year deal with a club option for 2009 for $5 million (with escalators that push it to a potential of $10 million) and a $2 million buyout. Or something like that.

]]> By: Jerry P http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/toronto-blue-jays-now-with-less-hurt/#comment-32756 Jerry P Sun, 20 Apr 2008 20:57:18 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/toronto-blue-jays-now-with-less-hurt/#comment-32756 There can only be a bidding war if team were willing to pay more than the Jays already owe for this year or were foolish enough to want to guarantee next. No way that's happening. It's possible he may receive several phone calls, but no one's gonna pay him $7 million + so that he actually makes more money. Seems like the AL has gone from no DH spots available at the beginning of the year to every DH spot being filled by someone severely underperforming or possibly done. There can only be a bidding war if team were willing to pay more than the Jays already owe for this year or were foolish enough to want to guarantee next. No way that’s happening. It’s possible he may receive several phone calls, but no one’s gonna pay him $7 million + so that he actually makes more money.

Seems like the AL has gone from no DH spots available at the beginning of the year to every DH spot being filled by someone severely underperforming or possibly done.

]]> By: Tom Au http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/toronto-blue-jays-now-with-less-hurt/#comment-32750 Tom Au Sun, 20 Apr 2008 18:46:27 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/toronto-blue-jays-now-with-less-hurt/#comment-32750 As I recall, the Oakland As made a major mistake in 2006 when they elected to sign Thomas for only one year at $500,000, rather than two years at $1 million per. With a WPA of 3.24 (that turned the As' hitting into an asset instead of its usual liability status), he took them to the playoffs in 2006. In essence, the club could have had an option on the man in 2007 for an additional $1.5 million. Clearly, he's worth more than $1.5 million and less than $10 million. It will be interesting to see where he finally falls in. As I recall, the Oakland As made a major mistake in 2006 when they elected to sign Thomas for only one year at $500,000, rather than two years at $1 million per. With a WPA of 3.24 (that turned the As’ hitting into an asset instead of its usual liability status), he took them to the playoffs in 2006. In essence, the club could have had an option on the man in 2007 for an additional $1.5 million.

Clearly, he’s worth more than $1.5 million and less than $10 million. It will be interesting to see where he finally falls in.

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