Comments on: Toying with the Adrian Gonzalez Market

By: Lyman Saniatan

Lyman Saniatan — Wed, 14 Jul 2010 08:15:40 +0000

Assessing the money flow is one more important element within the organization technique format, so as to sustain a regular money flow to meet the important capital needs. Probability of monetary crisis and also the ways of crisis management should be mentioned in the structure. The company technique must consist from the marketing plans and technique leading towards the expansion in the organization.

By: Bryan

Bryan — Mon, 21 Dec 2009 10:32:00 +0000

I really like the analysis as I believe it does a good job of balancing offense and defense and identifies teams in need of an upgrade. I am curious, however, as to why the Red Sox did not qualify as an elite team in no need of an upgrade if the Phillies did. Yes, Howard is a great hitter, a former MVP, and a superstar, but combining both offense and defense, Youkilis could be portrayed as equally valuable (as your system projects). Basically, why is Howard considered elite and Youkilis not?

By: Levi

Levi — Sun, 20 Dec 2009 16:51:59 +0000

But it was the same case with Teixeira a few years ago. Granted, it was only a year and a half of Teix, and he was coming from a hitters park (it’s the polar opposite with Gonzalez of course at Petco), but when the deal was made Saltalamacchia was seen as the main major league ready piece that came in return. Of course almost everyone knows the rest of the deal: not only Elvis Andrus plus Neftali Feliz, but also Matt Harrison and Beau Jones. All the aforementioned save Saltalamacchia weren’t really expected to produce for a couple years, and now at least two of them have very bright futures ahead of them.
What I’m getting to with Gonzalez is that Hoyer shouldn’t expect to get players who will make of for Gonzalez’s production immediately. In reality, they aren’t just a Clay Buchholz or a Jacoby Ellsbury away from taking over the division, they’re going to need more pieces than that with star potential.

By: CircleChange11

CircleChange11 — Sun, 20 Dec 2009 08:41:36 +0000

Heck, I can remember looking up “WHIP” on baseball cards back in the day when Teddy Higuera led the NL in it.

In 01 and 02 Curt Shilling was 2nd in the CYA, and led the league in HR allowed in 01 and was darn close in 02. He got away with because his WHIP was low. I always bring that up to young HS pitchers that are fearful of challenging hitters. I do it to combat “nibbling”.

Sure, it’s not an end-all be-all stat, but for pitchers, if you don’t allow many runners on base, you’re going to do rather well. It’s almost too simple to be true.

I would imagine that WHIP and FIP have a strong correlation. FIP is still rather new to me.

By: joser

joser — Sun, 20 Dec 2009 05:22:21 +0000

You have an emotional attachment to WHIP? Really? And you admit to it in public?

By: CircleChange11

CircleChange11 — Sun, 20 Dec 2009 03:51:29 +0000

Perhaps WAR isn’t ideal stat. Doesn’t really matter to me, in the regard that I don;t have any emotional attachment to any stat (well, except WHIP).

I just used WAR as a stat representative of “AGonz is REALLY good” and “you won’t likely find 2-3 prospects that are going to duplicate his offensive numbers” to be greater than AGonz + 2 current SDP players.

A better strategy might be to ait until his contract year, see who is in the playoff hunt, and get a package of 3-4 players, that include some affordable veterans that can get into the lineup right away, and some prospects that are either MLB ready or very close to it, so that those 3-4 guys are overall better than “AGonz + the players the new acquires replaces”.

That’s gonna be tough, but if you can catch a team (BOS maybe) in a situation where they are willing to win NOW (or in a hotly contested race for the WC) and are willing to trade guys like Anderson, Reddick, Bowden, etc … then that would be an ideal situation.

It would be nice to have some insider information and see what type of “packages” teams have offered or would discuss offering to SDP for AGonz.

We could use any stat that represents a player’s production, RC, wRC, OPS, WAR, wOBA, and the overall point remains, “AGonz is very good and replacing or perhaps improving on his contributions via trade is going to be darn difficult.” *grin*

By: Joe R

Joe R — Fri, 18 Dec 2009 19:52:55 +0000

Personally, I think for trades, WAB (Wins Above Bench) would be a better metric.

Think someone who’s a decent player, belongs in the majors, but really has no business starting for a contending team. Eckstein is a perfect example.

Because when you trade a player, you’re likely not planning on starting a AAAA scrub like Emilio Bonifacio at his spot.

Example: Team A trades 5 WAR player to Team B for three 2 WAR guys. On paper, Team A is getting 6 wins for 5, but those three are likely replacing 5 WAR guy, and 2 mediocre starters (let’s say 1 WAR). Now, the immediate gain is -1 WAR. Team B signs two 1 WAR guys to fill the holes, now are +1.

WAR is good for estimating a player’s true value, and a team’s true output, but I wouldn’t use it for movement between rosters.

By: mattymatty

mattymatty — Fri, 18 Dec 2009 19:01:52 +0000

You don’t have to convince several teams to deal lots of high ceiling prospects, you only have to convince one.

If San Diego doesn’t find a deal that suits its needs then they don’t make a deal, but the point was and is that Gonzalez’s trade value is as high as its going to get this off season, i.e. now. He’s only going to get older and he’s only going to get more expensive and closer to free agency. San Diego isn’t going to win in the next two years whether he’s on the team or not. Wasn’t it Branch Rickey who said, “We can finish last with you or we can finish last without you.” So, if the deal is there, why not make it and improve your chances of winning a championship, which Gonzalez otherwise won’t do.

By: hennethannun

hennethannun — Fri, 18 Dec 2009 18:40:38 +0000

Again, WAR isn’t the right way to view it. Obviously they won’t get enough value to replace gonzalez right now. but that’s not the point. they need to get equal or better value at some future point when they will have a good team. And it seems to me that the best way to get a player or players who have a good shot at providing 5+ WAR in 2012+ is to trade gonzalez now. His value in trade is only going to go down on the macro scale because he’s going to earn a ton of money when his current deal runs out. Sure, there might be a micro-scale spike in some particular team need at 1B that could result in a better price at the trade deadline (such as the carlos pena going down for the season example). That’s certainly something to consider. At the same time that is by no means a sure thing. And gonzalez’s value goes down while you wait and hope for such an event to take place. It just seems to me that the only real reason NOT to trade gonzalez right now is the problem of selling the move to the fanbase. But I think you could do that if you got a package of guys that included a ready for the majors player with some name recognition like ellsbury.

By: David MVP Eckstein

David MVP Eckstein — Fri, 18 Dec 2009 18:18:46 +0000

There’s more in the name link, but if you only adjust for raw park factors from ESPN (yes, i know, i should use THT’s) Gonzalez’s HR total last yr, in theory, could have been in the 50′s